Player Discussion Morgan Geekie

[Alicat]

I love Geeks.

 

[pucksindeep92]

I think you need to avoid arbitration as much as possible with him (and Lohrei too if he’s eligible for arbitration, I know he’s an RFA). Bruins are trending down an ugly road it feels like with player relations and negations the past couple years, and we need players to view management better than us fans are catching on from afar. Hopefully they throw him 5.4m and he doesn’t think twice

 

[Oates2Neely]

5 years x 5m. Takes him to age 31 where he can still earn another hefty contract

 

[Dellstrom]

Sustainable shooting percentage or not he needs to be extended. Already a very versatile player but has chemistry with Pasta which takes pressure off a top-6 wing. He definitely benefits from Pasta but who cares as long as he puts the puck in the net. We’ve seen enough spare wheels in our top-6 that couldn’t be carried by Krejci/Bergeron/etc… Not that easy to find.

Hope for a Lindholm rebound or find a better solution (also not easy) and you’ve got a damn good first line.

 

[Kalus]

People say Geekie isn't worth X and if we could get a 1st for him in an OS compensation we should jump at it.

And yet, how many of our recent first rounders have potted 30 goals in a season?

Letourneau - Doubt it.
Lysell - Doubt it.
Beecher -- NO..
Vaakanainen -- NO. Won't ever be defensive equivalent of a 30G scorer in any way shape or form
McAvoy - YES (in terms of defensive value equivalent of a 30 G scorer)
Frederic - NO.
Zboril - NO.
DeBrusk - YES. But even that wasn't enough to stop a lot of people wanting him traded.
Senyshyn - NO.
Pastrnak - YES
Subban - NO. Maybe the goalie equivalent of 2 goals per year.
Hamilton - YES (see McAvoy)
Seguin - YES
Caron - NO
Colborne - NO
Hamill - NO
Kessel - YES
Lahoff - NO

30 goal scorers get paid. And since Geekie is young and trending up he will get paid and the Bruins will pay him.

If not, this "retool" or "rebuild" will take forever.

I largely agree with this but feel compelled to point out the closest Debrusk got was 27.

 

[Mad-Marcus]

Pasta and Geekie together for 5 years should be good for 80+ goals/yr, easily(w/health). Don't discount the elevation in scoring of Geekie. Sometimes it's just being in the right situation to emerge.
Geekie's 30th is an prime example of how their chemistry has become irrefutable. They seem to just know where the other one is going to be.

 

[4ORRBRUIN]

Maybe not over a barrel, but he’s in a damn good spot.

I hope it’s reasonable, but I don’t even know what that is with this guy at this point. A few months ago I would’ve hoped for 3 years around 4 mil. That’s definitely out of the question now. Could be looking close to 6

No way 6m

 

[mjhfb]

Sustainable shooting percentage or not he needs to be extended. Already a very versatile player but has chemistry with Pasta which takes pressure off a top-6 wing. He definitely benefits from Pasta but who cares as long as he puts the puck in the net. We’ve seen enough spare wheels in our top-6 that couldn’t be carried by Krejci/Bergeron/etc… Not that easy to find.

Hope for a Lindholm rebound or find a better solution (also not easy) and you’ve got a damn good first line.

Agreed, and you could argue that they have too many centers right now. Sure they shoehorn them on the wing as needed but players that have been at center most of their careers don't always translate well to the wing.
We all talk about adding a #1C but next season they have to add him to "centers" Lindholm, Zacha, Mittelstadt, Poitras, Kastelic, Beecher, etc.. Heck even Minten seems smart enough to be a good candidate there. Next season they need to come up with Centers #1 through #4, either from what they have or outside, and cut bait with the others that can't excel on the wing.

 

[Smitty93]

They find themselves in quite the predicament. Even if they wanted to trade him, they're probably not going to find a taker offering good value considering salary expectations.

Here's what I see:

Just to dig into the unsustainable shooting percentage discussion a little further, I figured I'd throw out a few numbers. 390 forwards have played at least 40 games this year, only 51 have shot at least 17%, and only 93 have shot a least 15%. The median forward shoots 12.3%. His career average was 11.4% prior to his season. Let's say he can be slightly above that at 13%, same as last year. If he shot 13%, he'd have 19 goals this season.

But the shooting percentage isn't the only story. Despite playing a significant amount of time with Pastrnak this year, his assist rate (on a TOI basis) isn't better, and is, in fact, slightly below his historical assist rate. TOI is a major factor in all of this because he's playing 1.5 more minutes per game than last year, when he played 5 more minutes per game than the previous year. I mention this because much of his increased scoring over the last two years is due to a significant increase in ice time. It's also noteworthy that he went from 49% o-zone starts last year to 71% this year.

So I see a player who's probably more likely to be a 20-goal scorer and the consistency in his assist rate suggests 20-25 there, so he's probably a 40-45 point winger. Maybe that's worth $5-6M. That's what DeBrusk cost last summer and their total production is pretty similar. The thing is, I don't think we can expect much improvement from here, given his last two seasons aren't that different when normalizing shooting percentage. It's not like there are great options on the free agent market you can get for the same money, but there's certainly a question of whether that's the most efficient way to spend that money. And while Pastrnak has played well with him, is Geekie really the ideal long-term linemate for him?

 

[DKH]

A lot of people are underweighting the luck factor with that shooting percentage this season. Say he was shooting at 13% like last year, which is still very high in the NHL and a generous projection (ex: it’s where Pasta shot this year), you are looking at 18-19 goals (close to last year’s 17).

He is a good player and I hope he is re-signed, but regression to the mean statistical history tells us this will be his only 30 goal season. In negotiations, you have to imagine Bruins will take the position that he is a 15-20 goal scorer from here on out and not a 30 goal scorer, and that should bring his AAV down from some of these projections.

The luck thing went out when he said he changed his approach to shooting after a conversation with Ullmark who said he took to long which made it easier to square up -he cited Matthews and others who sacrifice for quick and element of surprise

If he didn’t say this back 3-4 months ago I’d go luck but he went over this and working on things in November road trip when he was scratched and worked with Sacco & Kelly.

Once Monty got his way and was able to celebrate Thanksgiving in his St Louis home, Sacco who was working with him put his pupil in.

 

[DKH]

Guys I want to apologize for bringing information and messing up the he’s lucky or not sustainable talk

Mods I’ll delete if you want - I like luck first good fortune talk

 

[Hookslide]

The luck thing went out when he said he changed his approach to shooting after a conversation with Ullmark who said he took to long which made it easier to square up -he cited Matthews and others who sacrifice for quick and element of surprise

If he didn’t say this back 3-4 months ago I’d go luck but he went over this and working on things in November road trip when he was scratched and worked with Sacco & Kelly.

Once Monty got his way and was able to celebrate Thanksgiving in his St Louis home, Sacco who was working with him put his pupil in.

interesting

 

[Dr Hook]

The luck thing went out

The luck also doesn't account for him just getting better as a player, specific skill work aside. The guy is young enough that he still improving. But we should all use his averages that inclide the four years prior to coming to Boston where he was a bottom 6 grinder.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

The luck also doesn't account for him just getting better as a player, specific skill work aside. The guy is young enough that he still improving. But we should all use his averages that inclide the four years prior to coming to Boston where he was a bottom 6 grinder.

Sure. He has 22 goals in his last 72 shots for a 31% shooting percentage. I don’t think some Ullmark conversation last year accounts for that.

 

[DKH]

The luck also doesn't account for him just getting better as a player, specific skill work aside. The guy is young enough that he still improving. But we should all use his averages that inclide the four years prior to coming to Boston where he was a bottom 6 grinder.

watch him cruising around on shifts - the puck (and Pastrnak) find him a lot & he’s absolutely shooting quickly

29 goals last 59 games is insane

 

[Dr Hook]

Sure. He has 22 goals in his last 72 shots for a 31% shooting percentage. I don’t think some Ullmark conversation last year accounts for that.

How about waiting to see how he does next season before taking a victory lap, yeah?

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

How about waiting to see how he does next season before taking a victory lap, yeah?

I'm not taking a victory lap. The whole maybe he just figured it out thing where he's shot at a near NHL record pace the last 25 games thing is crazy though.

 

[Dr Hook]

I'm not taking a victory lap. The whole maybe he just figured it out thing where he's shot at a near NHL record pace the last 25 games thing is crazy though.

Well it probably is unsustainable.I have no idea but if Pasta keeps giving him gifts from 2 feet out from an empty net, it should stay pretty high. But, my point was not that he had a magical conversion, just that some discussions about him have mentioned his career averages and it makes sense to me to point out that he is also in that stage of a career where some guys continue to get better. It's not inconceivable to me that he has grown enough, maybe not to shoot 30%, but to remain a 30 goal scorer for the next few seasons

 

[Gonzothe7thDman]

Ullmark could charge some crazy rate to bottom 6 forwards to turn them into 30 goal men with pep talks.

Could probably retire from hockey today and live on the percentages he takes off the new contracts his clients get.

 

[DKH]

Sure. He has 22 goals in his last 72 shots for a 31% shooting percentage. I don’t think some Ullmark conversation last year accounts for that.

Send him a letter and tell him not me lol

He said it 3 months ago he probably can remember

 

[KillerMillerTime]

I largely agree with this but feel compelled to point out the closest Debrusk got was 27.

DeBrusk missed 18 games the last time he hit 27 and missed 14 the other time he hit 27. DeBrusk could drive offense better, but Geekie is more physical and doesn't float as often as DeBrusk did. $5.5 seems reasonable.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Well it probably is unsustainable.I have no idea but if Pasta keeps giving him gifts from 2 feet out from an empty net, it should stay pretty high. But, my point was not that he had a magical conversion, just that some discussions about him have mentioned his career averages and it makes sense to me to point out that he is also in that stage of a career where some guys continue to get better. It's not inconceivable to me that he has grown enough, maybe not to shoot 30%, but to remain a 30 goal scorer for the next few seasons

He can score anywhere from 25-30 goals consistently with #88. Doubt he dips to a 20 goal guy with #88 playing say 75 games.

 

[BlackFrancis]

Goal scorers are notoriously streaky.

Hot streaky. Never not streaky.

And no one ever regrets paying for a hot streak.

 

[DKH]

the goal Geekie got last night was off a hellacious Pasta pass

Geekie clearly is getting set up here by 88.

Esposito & Orr turned Hodge into a 40- 50 goal scorer ~ without them he was 25

Orr basically turned Espo into 60-70 without he was 30-40

Mario Lemieux took a minor leaguer named Warren Young into a one time 40 goal scorer

Geekie is probably around 20 on a line with any other 2 Bruins F not named Pastrnak

He is a perfect compliment though to Pastrnak - they match very well and I think you don’t F with a great thing

If I’m him I don’t hesitate at 5/30

 

[Kally]

He can score anywhere from 25-30 goals consistently with #88. Doubt he dips to a 20 goal guy with #88 playing say 75 games.

What happens when his shooting percentage dips back to normal?

He’s shooting 21% this season. I don’t think this is super sustainable.

His Bruins career SH% is 17.2%

his career SH% is 14.2%. He shot 9% with SEA (2 years - 138 GP).

He’s also seen an increase in his TOI and plays wing as opposed to center — more chances to score?

Boston: 16:09/TOI
Seattle: 11:34/TOI

He’s a tough case. Good player. Is he more than that or a perfect compliment to a star? Was listening to Marinofsky and Conor Ryan and they said. Is he a Chris Kunitz type? Felt that was a great analogy on the surface. Not going to dig in to much to the specifics.

Kunitz was really good with Crosby. These types of exist.

I’m fine with keeping Geekie. I hope the money/term makes it a steal of a contract. I’m nervous it could be a meh contract though.