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Morgan Frost next contract?

Curufinwe said:
Cates has scored 16 points in 710 ES minutes playing mostly with TK and Farabee.

Frost has scored 21 points in 659 ES minutes playing mostly with Tippett and JVR.

One of these forwards has top 6 production, and one of them does not.
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This is so, so simplistic I'm not sure I should even entertain it.

Cates has the 3rd lowest Offensive Zone Faceoff % on the team at 27.41%. Arguably the lowest among regulars in the lineup.

Frost is 3rd highest on the team behind noted studs (lol) Hayes and JVR at 37.11% Offensive Zone Faceoff %.

Cates TK and Farabee face the toughest lines night in and out where their QoC has a weighted average of xGAR+-/60 of 0.21 at EV whereas Frost is tied for 2nd lowest on the team at 0.17.

Frost has the 3rd highest Quality of Teammate (Qot) average on the team at 0.14 xGAR+-/60 whereas Cates is tied at 5th lowest at 0.05.

So your point of usage is completely null. Not to mention Frost racked up 16% of his points in two games against one of the worst teams in the league and while you can tell he has improved his all around game and flashes occasionally, he's still way too inconsistent. I'd love for him to prove he's a top six guy, but the things you pointed out tell me nothing.

Beef Invictus said:
He absolutely is not a 2LW. He's not a top 6 player at this time, except on a badly run team. If the Flyers had any kind of real depth this year then Laughton is on the 3rd line and Cates on the 4th.

You have to actually be able to produce points, you know. Contrary to what everyone running the Flyers believes, you win by scoring.
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Right so clearly Hayes is a top 6 player because POINTS.

Beef Invictus said:
He's playing with a shitload of offensive talent and he isn't producing.

There's just no reason to pay him 3 million a year.
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Yeah Farabee is really killing it out there eh
 
Rebels57 said:
Giving Cates, an offensive blackhole, a longterm contract with a signficant cap hit would finally complete the Flyers transformation into the 2019 Islanders. Long time coming. Hard work pays off.
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Going rate for a 2C in UFA seems to be 5x5. Don't see anything wrong with something longer than a bridge being 3-4 AAV for an RFA.
 
FlyguyOX said:
This is so, so simplistic I'm not sure I should even entertain it.

Cates has the 3rd lowest Offensive Zone Faceoff % on the team at 27.41%. Arguably the lowest among regulars in the lineup.

Frost is 3rd highest on the team behind noted studs (lol) Hayes and JVR at 37.11% Offensive Zone Faceoff %.

Cates TK and Farabee face the toughest lines night in and out where their QoC has a weighted average of xGAR+-/60 of 0.21 at EV whereas Frost is tied for 2nd lowest on the team at 0.17.

Frost has the 3rd highest Quality of Teammate (Qot) average on the team at 0.14 xGAR+-/60 whereas Cates is tied at 5th lowest at 0.05.

So your point of usage is completely null. Not to mention Frost racked up 16% of his points in two games against one of the worst teams in the league and while you can tell he has improved his all around game and flashes occasionally, he's still way too inconsistent. I'd love for him to prove he's a top six guy, but the things you pointed out tell me nothing.


Right so clearly Hayes is a top 6 player because POINTS.


Yeah Farabee is really killing it out there eh
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You forget about TK?
 
Beef Invictus said:
You forget about TK?
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Not at all. Why do you think Torts puts Cates with Konecny? Konecny is our biggest source of offense and having Cates allows him more freedom to provide the offense the rest of the roster can't provide while Cates is responsible defensively and does the dirty work.
 
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Cates is a 2C on a bottom 10 team and offense whose 1C is injured and 2C was deemed so mediocre he moved to wing.

Arguing a player on a 34 point pace, while receiving usage above his means with the best wingers on the team, is a bonafide 2C is just nutty. Look around the league, not at what the talent averse Flyers have conditioned people to believe is high end talent.
 
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I don't think Cates is a finished product, given he was a LW in college who is learning to play center on the Fly, matched up against opponent's best line. So people jumping to conclusions is a bit premature.

1.57 pp/60 his last 26 games, since the lines were set and he got to play with the same wings on a regular basis.
So he's showing substantial improvement as the season progresses.

If Couts returns close to a 100% as the 1C, Cates' defensive workload will be reduced and he can focus more on creating offensively.

Cates has an off the chart hockey IQ as well as great hands, he's the one Flyer who can consistently come away with the puck in a crowd. I wouldn't bet against him - smart players with high work ethics tend to improve throughout their 20s.
 
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FlyguyOX said:
This is so, so simplistic I'm not sure I should even entertain it.

Cates has the 3rd lowest Offensive Zone Faceoff % on the team at 27.41%. Arguably the lowest among regulars in the lineup.

Frost is 3rd highest on the team behind noted studs (lol) Hayes and JVR at 37.11% Offensive Zone Faceoff %.

Cates TK and Farabee face the toughest lines night in and out where their QoC has a weighted average of xGAR+-/60 of 0.21 at EV whereas Frost is tied for 2nd lowest on the team at 0.17.

Frost has the 3rd highest Quality of Teammate (Qot) average on the team at 0.14 xGAR+-/60 whereas Cates is tied at 5th lowest at 0.05.

So your point of usage is completely null. Not to mention Frost racked up 16% of his points in two games against one of the worst teams in the league and while you can tell he has improved his all around game and flashes occasionally, he's still way too inconsistent. I'd love for him to prove he's a top six guy, but the things you pointed out tell me nothing.


Right so clearly Hayes is a top 6 player because POINTS.


Yeah Farabee is really killing it out there eh
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Talking about zone starts doesn't mean anything. They start 2-3 times more on the fly than they do with faceoffs. It just doesn't have as much as an impact as some might thing.

Cates is playing with TK and Farabee more than any other forward. EH's xGAR model does not like TK or Farabee due to his defense. This is why, in part, Cates' QoT looks terrible according to EH. But, the xGAR that you referenced for Cates' teammates is total impact, not offensive specific. EH ranks TK in the ~72 percentile for total offensive and Farabee in the 69 percentile for total offense. It ranks TK in the ~2 percentile for total defense and ~10 percentile for Farabee. Both are very good offensive players, reflected in the model you referenced. I can also post All Three Zones data to corroborate how good TK has been if you want me to, albeit it's a bit dated.

EH model has Cates at the 21 percentile for overall offense. Mostly due to GAR, not xGAR. Personally, I don't like GAR, I would much prefer xGAR, but that's just me. His offensive xGAR is not good. Further, Cates' RAPM xGF is almost as low as Deslauirers. He's ranked 332 of 375 in forwards who has played over 300 mins (that's 11th percentile). You probably know this because you are quoting EH stats, but for those who don't know, RAPM is the best attempt to individualize impacts, although I'm not a huge fan of it.

So the point is that, Cates isn't producing, despite being put in a position to do so.

And, the point about Frost putting up 8 points against Ariziona is so dumb. You know, every team plays Arizona twice, right? But how many players have put up multiple 4-point games, against any team? It's ridiculous that is held against him. Now, that doesn't mean he isn't inconsistent, and doesn't need more consistency - I agree. But to say that putting up two 4-point games isn't impressive, and actually holding that against him, is just dumb.
 
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Beef Invictus said:
So why are Farabee and TK better overall without Cates?

View attachment 646910
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More context is needed. I'd wager that without cates they're playing lesser competition. With or without analytics can be deceiving.

My overarching point is a player in his first full NHL season is trusted with some of the toughest usage, playing high in the lineup in all situations, and people still view Frost as better. It's just mindboggling. Yeah, Cates isn't as flashy and his skating is average at best (still better than Brink), but he's smart as hell and consistent. Even if Cates is really a wing he could be super valuable on a contender.
 
VladDrag said:
Talking about zone starts doesn't mean anything. They start 2-3 times more on the fly than they do with faceoffs. It just doesn't have as much as an impact as some might thing.

Cates is playing with TK and Farabee more than any other forward. EH's xGAR model does not like TK or Farabee due to his defense. This is why, in part, Cates' QoT looks terrible according to EH. But, the xGAR that you referenced for Cates' teammates is total impact, not offensive specific. EH ranks TK in the ~72 percentile for total offensive and Farabee in the 69 percentile for total offense. It ranks TK in the ~2 percentile for total defense and ~10 percentile for Farabee. Both are very good offensive players, reflected in the model you referenced. I can also post All Three Zones data to corroborate how good TK has been if you want me to, albeit it's a bit dated.

EH model has Cates at the 21 percentile for overall offense. Mostly due to GAR, not xGAR. Personally, I don't like GAR, I would much prefer xGAR, but that's just me. His offensive xGAR is not good. Further, Cates' RAPM xGF is almost as low as Deslauirers. He's ranked 332 of 375 in forwards who has played over 300 mins (that's 11th percentile). You probably know this because you are quoting EH stats, but for those who don't know, RAPM is the best attempt to individualize impacts, although I'm not a huge fan of it.

So the point is that, Cates isn't producing, despite being put in a position to do so.

And, the point about Frost putting up 8 points against Ariziona is so dumb. You know, every team plays Arizona twice, right? But how many players have put up multiple 4-point games, against any team? It's ridiculous that is held against him. Now, that doesn't mean he isn't inconsistent, and doesn't need more consistency - I agree. But to say that putting up two 4-point games isn't impressive, and actually holding that against him, is just dumb.
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Coaches have more control over faceoff starts and that's more indicative of usage than OTF since the puck is quickly moving around.

Wait, so TK and Farabee are completely lacking defense hence Cates has to cover for them. That's exactly what I'm getting at. How does Cates get involved offensively when TK and Farabee are taking all the offensive risks and Cates has to be conservative to cover for them. Which is fine. Torts literally says as much:

“Catesy’s a guy I always use against one of the top lines on the opposing team.”

“Yeah, you forget (he’s a rookie).” — January 8

“Catesy’s kind of the heartbeat (of his line) there, as far as the defensive part of the game and positioning.” — January 16

“You look at mistakes, but there’s always … I call it ‘the save the day’ guy. There’s always time to recover, and someone to help out your buddy. Catesy does that. I just have a tremendous amount of trust in him, in any situation that we put him in.

“I haven’t run across too many players that have been taken off the wing, put at center, in a team that’s been floundering, that couldn’t defend, that’s trying to defend, and get the minutes that he’s gotten so far in the first 50 games. I just don’t have anybody on the top of my head right now that I think could accomplish what he’s done. And a lot of people don’t think there’s any offense there — I do think there’s offense there. But his main concentration right now — and he understands his role — is making sure he’s sound the other way. I think eventually, as we keep growing the team, you’re gonna find some offense in this guy too.” — January 26

The arizona thing was to highlight his inconsistency for context of the "durr more points than Cates durrr". I think people can watch games and see the chances Cates generates either directly via a pass or by starting a cycle in the O-zone by being strong on the puck. I agree he needs some more puck luck to go his way. But again I just saw last night where he setup JVR for a grade A chance that JVR floundered.
 
FlyguyOX said:
More context is needed. I'd wager that without cates they're playing lesser competition. With or without analytics can be deceiving.

My overarching point is a player in his first full NHL season is trusted with some of the toughest usage, playing high in the lineup in all situations, and people still view Frost as better. It's just mindboggling. Yeah, Cates isn't as flashy and his skating is average at best (still better than Brink), but he's smart as hell and consistent. Even if Cates is really a wing he could be super valuable on a contender.
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Quality of competition isn't as important as who you are playing with, and will naturally vary from game to game while teammates are often consistent. Leaning on coaching usage as proof requires assuming the coach isn't mistaken or behaving inefficiently, and he very well could be.

And it's a really small sample size, but:

1675803257597.png


These are better results than Cates gets with them, and they really ought to try pairing Farabee and TK with Frost for a solid stretch to see what it does; and this is a thing the eye test has suggested all year. Frost with Farabee always brought out the best in both, and Frost with TK also looks really good, so why not see what all three at once is? It isn't a surprise the numbers back it up.

Cates can certainly be a solid piece on a contender...but that would be at wing, and in the bottom six. Preferably 4th line, as he stands now. IMO.
 
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Frost and Cates are apples and oranges.

Frost will always be an offense first center who's ideal role is 2C, he's not talented enough for 1C, but given the right wings (and the Flyers have plenty of potential second line caliber young wings, he could be a 40+ ES scorer and contribute on the PP. He's not bad defensively, he's just not physical enough to match up against a lot of top centers (Barkov, Matthews, etc.) and he's not going to score at an elite level to compensate.

Cates is a jack of all trades, similar to Laughton but smarter and more responsible defensively, though not as fast. He'll need to get stronger b/c he's not going to out skate people (he's gotten faster, but that's not the same as fast) so he'll have to rely on positioning and angles, and be able to hold his own. Cates should improve on offense as he gets experience at center (already has) but he doesn't have a top notch shot or elite vision, but he's smart enough to learn to anticipate plays developing.

To give Laughton credit, he's a slow learner but he's continued to develop, he's having his best season at center this year, though some of that is due to Hayes at LW handling a lot of playmaking responsibility for him. He's more responsible on defense. His PP scoring shouldn't be a surprise, he showed at LW last season he's a plus shooter. But he's really thrived in a more aggressive PK scheme.
 
Beef Invictus said:
Quality of competition isn't as important as who you are playing with, and will naturally vary from game to game while teammates are often consistent. Leaning on coaching usage as proof requires assuming the coach isn't mistaken or behaving inefficiently, and he very well could be.

And it's a really small sample size, but:

View attachment 646920

These are better results than Cates gets with them, and they really ought to try pairing Farabee and TK with Frost for a solid stretch to see what it does; and this is a thing the eye test has suggested all year. Frost with Farabee always brought out the best in both, and Frost with TK also looks really good, so why not see what all three at once is? It isn't a surprise the numbers back it up.

Cates can certainly be a solid piece on a contender...but that would be at wing, and in the bottom six. Preferably 4th line, as he stands now. IMO.
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Those are EV, right?

Hey if I had it my way I'd have kept the great Tippett-Frost-Cates line from last year together.
 
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FlyguyOX said:
Wait, so TK and Farabee are completely lacking defense hence Cates has to cover for them. That's exactly what I'm getting at. How does Cates get involved offensively when TK and Farabee are taking all the offensive risks and Cates has to be conservative to cover for them. Which is fine.
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(I want to be clear, I like Cates. Just not as a top 6 player)

Yes, Cates is defensively responsible, and TK/Farabee haven't been as much this year. But that doesn't mean they haven't spent significant time in the offensive zone. When they are in the offensive zone, honestly to me, Cates always seems, a 1/4 step behind. And honestly, that's to be expected. He was a 5th round pick, and offense has NEVER been his strong suit. Why do we think that all of a sudden he's going to unlock this offensive potential that he's never shown before? Is it possible, sure, but is it likely no. I mean, he's what, 23, 24? So, I don't really view it as Cates doesn't take offensive risks, I just don't think he has the offensive chops. I think he could be a secondary scorer down the line, but not a top 6 point producer.

FlyguyOX said:
Torts literally says as much:

“Catesy’s a guy I always use against one of the top lines on the opposing team.”

“Yeah, you forget (he’s a rookie).” — January 8

“Catesy’s kind of the heartbeat (of his line) there, as far as the defensive part of the game and positioning.” — January 16

“You look at mistakes, but there’s always … I call it ‘the save the day’ guy. There’s always time to recover, and someone to help out your buddy. Catesy does that. I just have a tremendous amount of trust in him, in any situation that we put him in.

“I haven’t run across too many players that have been taken off the wing, put at center, in a team that’s been floundering, that couldn’t defend, that’s trying to defend, and get the minutes that he’s gotten so far in the first 50 games. I just don’t have anybody on the top of my head right now that I think could accomplish what he’s done. And a lot of people don’t think there’s any offense there — I do think there’s offense there. But his main concentration right now — and he understands his role — is making sure he’s sound the other way. I think eventually, as we keep growing the team, you’re gonna find some offense in this guy too.” — January 26
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I'll be honest, quoting Tort's doesn't mean shit to me. I personally think the game has passed him by. Sure he's gotten the group to buy-in which is very important to winning, but he's got no idea what to do to generate offense. He also doesn't understand the premium that is offensive ability; howe important it is to the game.

I just want to add this about overall lineup construction. You can say Cates covers for TK/Farabee defensively, sure that might be true...But, what I am going to say is that he also mutes TK/Farabee's offensive ability. You're doing a disservice to TK and Farabee's offensive game, and as a result, you're doing your team a disservice, when you put them out there with Cates.

FlyguyOX said:
The arizona thing was to highlight his inconsistency for context of the "durr more points than Cates durrr". I think people can watch games and see the chances Cates generates either directly via a pass or by starting a cycle in the O-zone by being strong on the puck. I agree he needs some more puck luck to go his way. But again I just saw last night where he setup JVR for a grade A chance that JVR floundered.
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Personally, I just don't see as much offensive involvement, night in and night out, from Cates as I do from Frost. The question that I would have to you is how do you think Cates would look in Frost's deployment? Do you think he would be pacing for 40 points like Frost. Do you think he would have scored 4 points in two separate games? Now, how do you think Frost would look in Cates' deployment. Do you think he would look better offensively than he does? I personally do.

And again, I like Cates. I think he's a good middle 6/bottom 6 LW. I don't think he's a center.
 
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