More MVP Worthy Player: Mackinnon, Kuch or Drai?

A shame about that media bias towards Winnipeg. It really is unfair to the state of Florida.


Who has 153!! points this year?

Hey look at Price back there. MVP calibre season.

That's one of the problems of "advanced" stats. Nobody can even agree how to define them. According to moneypuck, just two seasons ago there were three goalies (Saros, Ullmark, and Sorokin) with a better Goals Saved Above Expected than Hellebuyck has this year. So people cherry pick the data that suits their narrative and say this was an all-time year (it's not). Hellebuyck had a great season, Vezina deserving, but not MVP.
 
I hope MacKinnon wins the Hart again this season, so it will be undeniable how much of a joke this trophy has become.
Most prestigious individual regular season award.

Ted Lindsay #2.

For forwards.art Ross is 3rd.

Literally every sport votes in MVP. Either deal with it or stop following lol
 
Most prestigious individual regular season award.
Ted Lindsay #2.
For forwards.art Ross is 3rd.
Literally every sport votes in MVP. Either deal with it or stop following lol
But he's right. Prestige of the award can be diminished with obvious snubs.
Kucherov's case was stronger than MacKinnon's last year, as he was better and more valuable to his team. While he didn't repeat the last year's historic scoring, he'll win the Art Ross once again, and his case for being MVP is even stronger. Voting any other player MVP again would just scream bias and leave people wondering - what else must he do?
 
A shame about that media bias towards Winnipeg. It really is unfair to the state of Florida.


Who has 153!! points this year?

Hey look at Price back there. MVP calibre season.


"All time"

Meanwhile the goalies shown are from the past couple of decades.
 
Should be Kuch. IMO mack wasn’t the front runner when he was leading the league in scoring, sounds like he was injured a bit, but sure as hell shouldn’t win it with his last couple weeks. I kind of wish he just didn’t play the last few games.
 
That's one of the problems of "advanced" stats. Nobody can even agree how to define them. According to moneypuck, just two seasons ago there were three goalies (Saros, Ullmark, and Sorokin) with a better Goals Saved Above Expected than Hellebuyck has this year. So people cherry pick the data that suits their narrative and say this was an all-time year (it's not). Hellebuyck had a great season, Vezina deserving, but not MVP.
You can go by their predictive value. How much did Hellebuyck increase his team's victory predictions this season in comparison to Saros, Ullmark, or Sorokin in their respective years?

The way you define an advanced stat depends on your goal. If your goal is to predict how important the player's been for his team's winning chances, there are ways of doing so. If that's not your goal, then you can define them in a different way.
 
No disrespect to Hellebuyck but I just have a hard time seeing the voters giving him that many first place votes. I just don’t see what makes his season an MVP season rather than “just” a Vezina season.
 
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You can go by their predictive value. How much did Hellebuyck increase his team's victory predictions this season in comparison to Saros, Ullmark, or Sorokin in their respective years?

The way you define an advanced stat depends on your goal. If your goal is to predict how important the player's been for his team's winning chances, there are ways of doing so. If that's not your goal, then you can define them in a different way.
Given how good Comrie has been and how strong WPG D has been I don’t think it’s a huge stretch to say they’d be a playoff team this year if you removed Helle from the roster. Comrie has a 0.914 save percentage to Helle’s 0.924 and a 2.39 GAA to Helle’s 2.02. I think they’d still safely have made it with any other true #1 goalie if Comrie’s stats are that strong.

I know it’s the most valuable player award, but I feel like the unwritten rule is that a goalie has to do something really special to win it, a year where you would have won the Vezina every time going back for a while.

Let’s compare Helle’s year to Price’s 2014-15 Hart, in which he won the goaltending “triple crown” with a 0.933 save percentage (0.004 higher than next goalie), 44 wins (3 more than nearest competitor), and 1.96 GAA (0.11 better than next guy).

In save percentage there are 3 guys within 0.03 of Hellebuyck. He’s tied in GAA with Kuemper. He only has 2 more shutouts than Vasy.

Don’t get me wrong, he should be a shoo in for the Vezina, but that’s kind of where it starts and ends for me.

He leads in wins. It’s impressive and he’s played a big part. But it is definitely more of an indication of the team’s success regardless of his role. It’d be one thing if the Jets stunk, but they won the President’s Trophy (again, he does get credit for his role, but would they be out of the playoffs without him?)

Ultimately I think it’s easier to argue that the difference between Kucherov and/or Draisaitl is slimmer than the margin between Hellebuyck and the 5th best goalie. But it’s a tough call and I wouldn’t call him undeserving by any stretch. My main argument is that if you put a guy with 20 fewer points than Kucherov on Tampa or 15 fewer goals than Draisaitl on Edmonton, they would probably be in a more precarious playoff position now than the Jets would if you swapped Hellebuyck with, say, Bobrovsky or Adin Hill. But that’s just my $0.02.
 
I don't have a problem with it going to a goalie if they have an unusually astounding year. I'm just not seeing that with Hellebuyck. Best save percentage by a hair. Best GAA by a hair. A lot of people point to his GSAE of 37.8, but that's not some extraordinary number for the league leader. Two year ago Saros had a 46.7. Hellebuyck is a Vezina slam dunk for sure, but feels like a real reach for the Hart.

Take the media bias out and the Hart would go to Kucherov. Sounds like once again they want to give it to someone who "is due".
Kucherov leads in points by a hair, 119 points is good but it's not some extraordinary number for the league leader. Just last year Kucherov had 144. 119 would have been 5th place last year. I can't call Kucherov a slam dunk anything so it feels like a real reach for the Hart.

Take the goalie bias out and the Hart would go to Hellebuyck. Sound like once again they want to give it to a guys who is due because Kucherov had a great case for it last year.
 
Given how good Comrie has been and how strong WPG D has been I don’t think it’s a huge stretch to say they’d be a playoff team this year if you removed Helle from the roster. Comrie has a 0.914 save percentage to Helle’s 0.924 and a 2.39 GAA to Helle’s 2.02. I think they’d still safely have made it with any other true #1 goalie if Comrie’s stats are that strong.

I know it’s the most valuable player award, but I feel like the unwritten rule is that a goalie has to do something really special to win it, a year where you would have won the Vezina every time going back for a while.

Let’s compare Helle’s year to Price’s 2014-15 Hart, in which he won the goaltending “triple crown” with a 0.933 save percentage (0.004 higher than next goalie), 44 wins (3 more than nearest competitor), and 1.96 GAA (0.11 better than next guy).

In save percentage there are 3 guys within 0.03 of Hellebuyck. He’s tied in GAA with Kuemper. He only has 2 more shutouts than Vasy.

Don’t get me wrong, he should be a shoo in for the Vezina, but that’s kind of where it starts and ends for me.

He leads in wins. It’s impressive and he’s played a big part. But it is definitely more of an indication of the team’s success regardless of his role. It’d be one thing if the Jets stunk, but they won the President’s Trophy (again, he does get credit for his role, but would they be out of the playoffs without him?)

Ultimately I think it’s easier to argue that the difference between Kucherov and/or Draisaitl is slimmer than the margin between Hellebuyck and the 5th best goalie. But it’s a tough call and I wouldn’t call him undeserving by any stretch. My main argument is that if you put a guy with 20 fewer points than Kucherov on Tampa or 15 fewer goals than Draisaitl on Edmonton, they would probably be in a more precarious playoff position now than the Jets would if you swapped Hellebuyck with, say, Bobrovsky or Adin Hill. But that’s just my $0.02.
You think Comrie is a .914 goaltender if he had Hellebuyck's workload? Look at that .914% now look at the win loss record. The Jets break their offensive necks protecting Comrie. It's just not the same team.
 
But he's right. Prestige of the award can be diminished with obvious snubs.
Kucherov's case was stronger than MacKinnon's last year, as he was better and more valuable to his team. While he didn't repeat the last year's historic scoring, he'll win the Art Ross once again, and his case for being MVP is even stronger. Voting any other player MVP again would just scream bias and leave people wondering - what else must he do?

Nah. Kucherov definitely deserved it last year, mainly because the team around him was awful. This year the rest of the team has been better. I don't see his case anywhere near as strong as it was last year. Then again it's rare to see a case as strong as his last year.
 
Nah. Kucherov definitely deserved it last year, mainly because the team around him was awful. This year the rest of the team has been better. I don't see his case anywhere near as strong as it was last year. Then again it's rare to see a case as strong as his last year.
The team around him last year was truly not any good at all. They scored a lot sure but the defense and 5 on 5 play was definitively worse than just about every other playoff team. Kucherov dragged them there.
 
You think Comrie is a .914 goaltender if he had Hellebuyck's workload? Look at that .914% now look at the win loss record. The Jets break their offensive necks protecting Comrie. It's just not the same team.
Maybe not if he played 60 games, but if he played 40-50, I don't see why not. He's a career .900 goalie that had to play 40% of his career games behind the Buffalo defense.

In two years as the backup in WPG he put up 0.920 and 0.914 save percentage. In 2021-22 he was 10-5-1 with a save percentage that was only 0.006% higher than this year. That year the Jets were -5 on the season and missed the playoffs, this year they are +85, so I think it's more just that WPG has had more duds in his games this year for whatever reason.

Comrie is 5th in the league in save percentage among goalies with 20+ games. Even if he couldn't handle a Hellebuyck workload, it does seem to suggest that either both these goalies are really good or both their stats are inflated by the Jets great play this year. Or perhaps a mix of the two.
 
Maybe not if he played 60 games, but if he played 40-50, I don't see why not. He's a career .900 goalie that had to play 40% of his career games behind the Buffalo defense.

In two years as the backup in WPG he put up 0.920 and 0.914 save percentage. In 2021-22 he was 10-5-1 with a save percentage that was only 0.006% higher than this year. That year the Jets were -5 on the season and missed the playoffs, this year they are +85, so I think it's more just that WPG has had more duds in his games this year for whatever reason.

Comrie is 5th in the league in save percentage among goalies with 20+ games. Even if he couldn't handle a Hellebuyck workload, it does seem to suggest that either both these goalies are really good or both their stats are inflated by the Jets great play this year. Or perhaps a mix of the two.
Per moneypuck, Comrie has a GSAx of 2.5 after 20 games played. Hellebuyck has a GSAx of 38.
 
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The team around him last year was truly not any good at all. They scored a lot sure but the defense and 5 on 5 play was definitively worse than just about every other playoff team. Kucherov dragged them there.
Even their scoring was mainly Kucherov. He was in on over half the goals. The only guy who didn't have a down year (at least until the TDL) was Hagel. Other than that it was the Tampa Bay Kucherov.
 
Kucherov leads in points by a hair, 119 points is good but it's not some extraordinary number for the league leader. Just last year Kucherov had 144. 119 would have been 5th place last year. I can't call Kucherov a slam dunk anything so it feels like a real reach for the Hart.

Take the goalie bias out and the Hart would go to Hellebuyck. Sound like once again they want to give it to a guys who is due because Kucherov had a great case for it last year.
You seem to be missing the point that the Hart trophy has a long history of treating goalies differently than forwards. It's always taken a historically good year for a goalie to win a Hart, not true for forwards.
 
Kucherov gaining steam recently. Clearing MacKinnon by 5+ pts would be ideal. His lead on Draisaitl is currently 13 and should only get bigger assuming Draisaitl is out of the rest of the regular season. Hopefully Kucherov plays in the last 2 games, but realistically, I think he sits game 82 once the seeding in the Atlantic is determined.
 
You can go by their predictive value. How much did Hellebuyck increase his team's victory predictions this season in comparison to Saros, Ullmark, or Sorokin in their respective years?

The way you define an advanced stat depends on your goal. If your goal is to predict how important the player's been for his team's winning chances, there are ways of doing so. If that's not your goal, then you can define them in a different way.
Understood, but there are two different websites that publish GSAx that show different results which means they use different statistical models. Advanced stats have some uses, but people shouldn't take them as gospel.
 
You seem to be missing the point that the Hart trophy has a long history of treating goalies differently than forwards. It's always taken a historically good year for a goalie to win a Hart, not true for forwards.
That wasn't your point. Classic moving the goal posts.

Now you are saying there is a bias against goaltenders. This may be true.
 
Kucherov gaining steam recently. Clearing MacKinnon by 5+ pts would be ideal. His lead on Draisaitl is currently 13 and should only get bigger assuming Draisaitl is out of the rest of the regular season. Hopefully Kucherov plays in the last 2 games, but realistically, I think he sits game 82 once the seeding in the Atlantic is determined.
Honestly he may have to play. Don't exactly have space to call people up.
 

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