More MVP Worthy Player: Mackinnon, Kuch or Drai?

[MardyBum]

What? He’s literally top 5 in SV% among goalies with > 20 GP. Narrative-driven Hellebuyck hype is out of control.

A travesty!

 

[Regal]

First of all it's to a linemate and absolutely is an indicator of how valuable you are.

Then there's the whole fact of being in on 50% of your teams goals like he was last year when he absolutely should have won the Hart.

No it’s complete nonsense to ignore anything other than one teammate.

The second part actually is a good argument.

 

[wetcoast]

He is Russian so he is worse than mackinnon obviously.

User name checks out eh.

 

[wetcoast]

With the snubs on conn smythes, last year and if he doesnt win a hart this year + all the rankings with him not being in top 5 players in the world, he might be the most snubbed player ever

It's almost like Jagr never existed eh?

 

[x Tame Impala]

Every single year these Hart threads are just fans whining about their player's disadvantages and propping up their advantages. Fans get lost in the sauce of "most valuable" when really the Hart trophy goes to the league's best player. Who is that this season? Who is playing better than anyone else?

 

[King Woodballs]

Every single year these Hart threads are just fans whining about their player's disadvantages and propping up their advantages. Fans get lost in the sauce of "most valuable" when really the Hart trophy goes to the league's best player. Who is that this season? Who is playing better than anyone else?

Hellebuyck. Duh.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Hellebuyck. Duh.

I’ve been most impressed with Draisaitl myself.

 

[landy]

You claim to like statistics, so do you have proof that Draisaitl faces weaker matchups away from McDavid? Draisaitl also faces the other team's top lines fairly frequently. And when McDavid isn't playing, Draisaitl always faces the other team's top lines and still produces at a similar rate.

McDavid is obviously the better overall player and better for the majority of seasons. However, this year, Draisaitl has been the better of the two.

Yes. PuckIQ | Woodmoney

They spend 40% of their ES time together so obviously when they are together, the opposition is sending their best D, but the other 50% Draisaitl/Pod/whoever the third is sees the weaker matchups. Would be a lot easier to see if they spent 100% of their time apart and this measures PP time as well so not perfect, but at least some guys are starting to go there analytics wise

I agree, the 9 games where McDavid was out, Draisaitl received the top dogs. 6 of the 9 were non-playoff teams, but "Still produces at a similar rate" is easily arguable, but too small of a sample size to deduce anything which supports my argument. McDavid is ALWAYS a factor outside of these 9 games.

Sadly this is where "watch the game" comes in. If the Oilers are tossing out Leon/Arvid/Pod and RNH/McD/Hyman who is Slavin matching up against? Or Denault's line? Well see in a week or so.

 

[Beyonder91]

No it’s complete nonsense to ignore anything other than one teammate.

The second part actually is a good argument.

I mean if he is 54 points ahead of the next closest player that also means he is 54+ points ahead of the rest of the team. lol How is that complete nonsense?
I believe you have to go back to Wayne Gretzky in 1991 to find another player that finished 50+ points ahead of the next closest teammate.

 

[ponder]

IMO there's very legit arguments for any of MacKinnon, Kucherov, Draisaitl, I'd have no qualms with any of these guys winning it. And I see why ppl argue Helle or Makar, but I think that's misguided when you look at past Hart voting - more on that below.

With all that being said, my personal pick would be MacKinnon, he just dominates in so many different ways out there. Explosive speed, so powerful, elite compete level, crazy skill (hands, shot, edgework, everything), just feel he impacts the game in so many ways. Kucherov and Draisaitl, you can argue they're a hair ahead offensively, but MacKinnon more than makes up for that IMO with everything else he brings, with his speed, physicality and compete he brings elite level "grinder" and 2-way impact alongside his elite offence. When all 3 of MacKinnon/Kucherov/Draisaitl are putting up very similar numbers, and their teams are seeing very similar success, I give the overall edge to MacKinnon, for the advantages that don't show up so obviously on the score sheet, but impact the game a lot.

As for Helle and Makar, both are having outstanding seasons, but I don't see either winning. The truth is that goalies and dmen each have their own Hart-like award - the Vezina and Norris are more or less "most valuable goalie" and "most valuable dman." Because there's no award that's basically "most valuable forward" (Art Ross/Richard too different), the truth is that the Hart is essentially the "most valuable forward" award in practice. The Hart only goes to a goalie or dman when their case is much stronger than any forward, and I don't think that's the case this year. Since the 04/05 lockout, the Hart has been given out 19 times, and it's gone to:

• A forward 18 times
• A goalie 1 time
  • Price in 2014/15
  • He carried this Habs squad to 110 points, the 2nd best record in the league
  • Lead the league in sv% (.933), GAA (1.96) and wins (44), and had one of the biggest leads in Goals Saved Above Expected you'll see (Price 1st at 33.2 Goals Saved Above Expected, Dubnyk 2nd at 20.8, a 12.4 goal lead)
  • None of the top teams that year had a forward having an elite year, and it was just a really down year for forwards in general - Jamie Benn lead all forwards in scoring with 87 points
• A dman 0 times

And going back even further, since Bobby Orr's last Hart in 1972, we've had:

• A forward 46 times
• A goalie 4 times (Price, Hasek twice, and the one weird tie season where Jose Theodore won, tied in total Hart voting points with Iggy but won the tie breaker)
• A dman 1 time (Pronger)

And all of the goalie/dman wins were in seasons where no forwards had overly strong cases. No crazy scoring forwards, and/or the top scoring forwards weren't on top teams - Mario/Kariya/Selanne all had huge seasons in 1996/97, but on teams that weren't elite, plus Hasek was insane that year.

This season just doesn't feel like the sort of outlier season where a goalie or dman wins the Hart.

 

[landy]

I still go off what actual voters have to say. MacKinnon actually has a bigger lead just a month ago than he did last season and he dominated voting last season. Did MacKinnon do enough to lose it this year in the past month?

MacKinnon since 3.14.25 - 13GP 5G 9A 14P
Draisaitl since 3.14.25 - 6GP 5G 3A 8P
Kucherov since 3.14.25 - 15GP 8G 19A 27P
Helle since 3.14.25 - 11 GS 8-3 2SO

2024 they were right

Trophy Tracker: Panarin of Rangers emerges as leader for Hart as MVP | NHL.com

Pastrnak, Quinn Hughes also among favorites at quarter mark of season, according to NHL.com panel

www.nhl.com

Trophy Tracker: MacKinnon of Avalanche emerges as leader for Hart as MVP | NHL.com

Kucherov, McDavid also among favorites at halfway point of season, according to NHL.com panel

www.nhl.com

Trophy Tracker: MacKinnon top choice for Hart as NHL most valuable player | NHL.com

Kucherov, McDavid also among favorites at 3-quarter mark of season by NHL.com panel

www.nhl.com

Voting totals (points awarded on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis): Nathan MacKinnon, F, Colorado Avalanche, 65 points (9 first-place votes); Nikita Kucherov, F, Tampa Bay Lightning, 49 points (4 first place votes); Connor McDavid, F, Edmonton Oilers, 35 points (1 first place vote); Auston Matthews, F, Toronto Maple Leafs, 31 points; David Pastrnak, F, Boston Bruins, 16 points, Artemi Panarin, F, New York Rangers, 7 points Connor Hellebuyck, G, Winnipeg Jets, 3 points; Sam Reinhart, F, Florida Panthers, 3 points; J.T. Miller, F, Vancouver Canucks, 1 point


2025 so far

Trophy Tracker: Kaprizov of Wild picked to win Hart as most valuable player | NHL.com

MacKinnon, Reinhart also among favorites at quarter mark of season by NHL.com panel

www.nhl.com

Trophy Tracker: MacKinnon of Avalanche picked to win Hart as most valuable player | NHL.com

Kaprizov, Kucherov also among favorites at halfway point of season by NHL.com panel

www.nhl.com

Trophy Tracker: MacKinnon of Avalanche picked to win Hart as League MVP | NHL.com

Draisaitl, Hellebuyck also among favorites at 3-quarter mark of season by NHL.com panel

www.nhl.com

Voting totals (points awarded on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis): Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche, 71 (nine first-place votes); Leon Draisaitl, Oilers, 47 (three first-place votes); Connor Hellebuyck, Jets, 38 (three first-place votes); Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning, 30; Zach Werenski, Blue Jackets, 23 (one first-place vote); David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins, 7; Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals, 7; Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs, 6; Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks, 3; Jack Eichel, Vegas Golden Knights, 2; Kyle Connor, Jets, 2

 

[Zwui21]

I still go off what actual voters have to say. MacKinnon actually has a bigger lead just a month ago than he did last season and he dominated voting last season. Did MacKinnon do enough to lose it this year in the past month?

MacKinnon since 3.14.25 - 13GP 5G 9A 14P
Draisaitl since 3.14.25 - 6GP 5G 3A 8P
Kucherov since 3.14.25 - 15GP 8G 19A 27P
Helle since 3.14.25 - 11 GS 8-3 2SO

2024 they were right

Trophy Tracker: Panarin of Rangers emerges as leader for Hart as MVP | NHL.com

Pastrnak, Quinn Hughes also among favorites at quarter mark of season, according to NHL.com panel

www.nhl.com

Trophy Tracker: MacKinnon of Avalanche emerges as leader for Hart as MVP | NHL.com

Kucherov, McDavid also among favorites at halfway point of season, according to NHL.com panel

www.nhl.com

Trophy Tracker: MacKinnon top choice for Hart as NHL most valuable player | NHL.com

Kucherov, McDavid also among favorites at 3-quarter mark of season by NHL.com panel

www.nhl.com

Voting totals (points awarded on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis): Nathan MacKinnon, F, Colorado Avalanche, 65 points (9 first-place votes); Nikita Kucherov, F, Tampa Bay Lightning, 49 points (4 first place votes); Connor McDavid, F, Edmonton Oilers, 35 points (1 first place vote); Auston Matthews, F, Toronto Maple Leafs, 31 points; David Pastrnak, F, Boston Bruins, 16 points, Artemi Panarin, F, New York Rangers, 7 points Connor Hellebuyck, G, Winnipeg Jets, 3 points; Sam Reinhart, F, Florida Panthers, 3 points; J.T. Miller, F, Vancouver Canucks, 1 point


2025 so far

Trophy Tracker: Kaprizov of Wild picked to win Hart as most valuable player | NHL.com

MacKinnon, Reinhart also among favorites at quarter mark of season by NHL.com panel

www.nhl.com

Trophy Tracker: MacKinnon of Avalanche picked to win Hart as most valuable player | NHL.com

Kaprizov, Kucherov also among favorites at halfway point of season by NHL.com panel

www.nhl.com

Trophy Tracker: MacKinnon of Avalanche picked to win Hart as League MVP | NHL.com

Draisaitl, Hellebuyck also among favorites at 3-quarter mark of season by NHL.com panel

www.nhl.com

Voting totals (points awarded on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis): Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche, 71 (nine first-place votes); Leon Draisaitl, Oilers, 47 (three first-place votes); Connor Hellebuyck, Jets, 38 (three first-place votes); Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning, 30; Zach Werenski, Blue Jackets, 23 (one first-place vote); David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins, 7; Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals, 7; Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs, 6; Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks, 3; Jack Eichel, Vegas Golden Knights, 2; Kyle Connor, Jets, 2

I hope MacKinnon wins the Hart again this season, so it will be undeniable how much of a joke this trophy has become.

 

[landy]

I hope MacKinnon wins the Hart again this season, so it will be undeniable how much of a joke this trophy has become.

Its not the Art Ross. I know, insane concept to mean more to your team that simply putting up points. I think it will be close between MacKinnon and Hellebuyck, but Kucherov is deservingly in 4th. I loathe Draisaitl and I even put him ahead.

 

[abax44]

Yeh for me it comes down to Kucherov v Hellebuyck. Voters will have to weigh the difficult impact of assessing Skater vs Goalie.

Hellebuyck been amazing all year but man he has a solid defense in front of him, best team in the league in front of him. This stood out to me 2 weeks ago when Winnipeg crushed Vegas in Vegas, 3-0 shutout. Vegas barely got a good chance...Was comrie in net.

Not diminishing Hellebuycks awesome season, just think it's so hard to assess when the team in front of him make it very easy every night

If I was a voter my votes would be

5. Kucherov
4. Hellebuyck
3. Draisatl
2. Mackinnon
1. Makar

Can when then argue it's easier for Kucherov to go out and get points knowing full well he's got a Vezina goalie behind him? Not to diminish his season, of course.

 

[Zwui21]

Its not the Art Ross. I know, insane concept to mean more to your team that simply putting up points. I think it will be close between MacKinnon and Hellebuyck, but Kucherov is deservingly in 4th. I loathe Draisaitl and I even put him ahead.

View attachment 1013701

MacKinnon isn't even the MVP on his own team this season.

 

[Video Nasty]

Draisaitl has been the clear front runner to me all season, but the timing of him missing games has made him a tougher case to argue for as we enter the final days of the season.

He did a lot of heavy lifting when McDavid missed games due to injuries in two separate occasions, as well the suspension, but he’s officially out for the rest of the regular season.

That means he’ll have played just three games during the final month of the regular season. Combine that with three strong games by McDavid leading to three strong wins since his comeback (he’s also going to sit tomorrow) and his current mindshare has to have dropped a bit.

Unless the player missing a healthy amount of games still ends up winning a scoring race, I’m not really a fan of giving it to someone who is only going to play 71 games. As much as I’d like to see Drai win it, I have to be honest and say that as of today, I’m not so sure I would cast a first place vote for him.

The folks beating the drum for Hellebuyck all season long may end up being right.

I think I actually do lean toward Kucherov at this point, but some of last season may be bleeding into that choice for me.

 

[Adam da bomb]

If a goalie was ever going to win it, it should be Helly this year. It's just most likely to go to a forward.

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

To me it's Kucherov, most points and highest points per games. Gonna win back to back Art Ross trophies. I can see an argument for Hellebuyck, would be cool to see a goalie win. Crazy it's been a decade since Price won it.

 

[Duke74]

I loathe Draisaitl.

I appreciate your honesty. Now I understand your constant attempts to discredit him.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Unless the player missing a healthy amount of games still ends up winning a scoring race, I’m not really a fan of giving it to someone who is only going to play 71 games. As much as I’d like to see Drai win it, I have to be honest and say that as of today, I’m not so sure I would cast a first place vote for him.

Going back to WWII, there have only been five instances where the Hart winner has played fewer than 71 games (adjusted to an 82 game schedule) - Lemieux in 1993 and 1996, and then three goalies (Hasek in 1997, Theodore in 2002, and Price in 2015).

To be clear, that doesn't necessarily mean that Draisaitl shouldn't win. But it would be unusual based on historical trends.

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

I don't have a problem with it going to a goalie if they have an unusually astounding year. I'm just not seeing that with Hellebuyck. Best save percentage by a hair. Best GAA by a hair. A lot of people point to his GSAE of 37.8, but that's not some extraordinary number for the league leader. Two year ago Saros had a 46.7. Hellebuyck is a Vezina slam dunk for sure, but feels like a real reach for the Hart.

Take the media bias out and the Hart would go to Kucherov. Sounds like once again they want to give it to someone who "is due".

 

[Video Nasty]

Going back to WWII, there have only been five instances where the Hart winner has played fewer than 71 games (adjusted to an 82 game schedule) - Lemieux in 1993 and 1996, and then three goalies (Hasek in 1997, Theodore in 2002, and Price in 2015).

To be clear, that doesn't necessarily mean that Draisaitl shouldn't win. But it would be unusual based on historical trends.

Seems about right.

We have Lemieux winning a scoring race while missing 24 games—with the context of how amazing he performed upon that comeback— and then missing all of 1994-1995, and coming back remaining the best player and winning another scoring race while missing 12 games.

Hasek is above explanation. Theodore and Price won during years of weak standout seasons by forwards and need no further explanation either.

What really hurts Drai is the bad timing. I think 71 games would be enough this time, if they came midway through the season, but it’s really hard to justify someone not playing virtually all of the final month and pulling through, particularly when narrative matters so much and how a player is during the stretch run.

I’ll be pleasantly surprised if he wins, but such a shame otherwise. He had a real opportunity at all the awards, but might only walk out with a Rocket.

 

[Matsun]

I really like this Hart trophy flow chart that covers the winners from 2001-2023.

Based on it Kucherov should win the Hart (and Matthews should've won last season).

 

[crowfish]

My ballot would be

1 Draisaitl
2 Hellebuyck
3 Kucherov

I would be fine with any of the 3 winning it. They all have fair cases to be made. There is no real case for MacKinnon this year.

 

[MardyBum]

I don't have a problem with it going to a goalie if they have an unusually astounding year. I'm just not seeing that with Hellebuyck. Best save percentage by a hair. Best GAA by a hair. A lot of people point to his GSAA of 37.8, but that's not some extraordinary number for the league leader. Two year ago Saros had a 46.7. Hellebuyck is a Vezina slam dunk for sure, but feels like a real reach for the Hart.

Take the media bias out and the Hart would go to Kucherov. Sounds like once again they want to give it to someone who "is due".

A shame about that media bias towards Winnipeg. It really is unfair to the state of Florida.


Who has 153!! points this year?

Hey look at Price back there. MVP calibre season.