GDT: Moose Loosened Aboot Hoose vs. Planes

[redacted]

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When watching George in net:

 

[EdAVSfan]

This is indeed a hockey game.

I was close enough!

 

[littletonhockeycoach]

This…

No matter how bad Georgiev has been, the Avs defensive game has been average to bad all year. I don’t know how many good defensive games this team has played this year, but you can probably count them on one hand.

Most games this team has won this year was them out scoring their defensive issues thanks to MVP season from Mack. They have fallen behind in many of those wins and had to make a come back. The defensive structure has been lacking all year. It needs to turn around completely in the playoffs or we won’t go far

I have zero confidence that it is going to turn around. Too many rushing defensemen types. Not enough stay at home redwood giants.

 

[redacted]

This…

No matter how bad Georgiev has been, the Avs defensive game has been average to bad all year. I don’t know how many good defensive games this team has played this year, but you can probably count them on one hand.

Most games this team has won this year was them out scoring their defensive issues thanks to MVP season from Mack. They have fallen behind in many of those wins and had to make a come back. The defensive structure has been lacking all year. It needs to turn around completely in the playoffs or we won’t go far

What is the definition of a good defensive game? Less than 20 shots given up? 25? 30? Less than 10 High Danger Chances? 12? 15? xGA below 2? 2.5?

I think people would be shocked at how many good defensive games this team has.

 

[The Abusement Park]

What is the definition of a good defensive game? Less than 20 shots given up? 25? 30? Less than 10 High Danger Chances? 12? 15? xGA below 2? 2.5?

I think people would be shocked at how many good defensive games this team has.

People need to go watch other teams play. Breakdowns happen all the time, that’s why goalies are there. Obviously you want to limit chances against, but the defense looks worse because every mistake is going in the net.

 

[redacted]

People need to go watch other teams play. Breakdowns happen all the time, that’s why goalies are there. Obviously you want to limit chances against, but the defense looks worse because every mistake is going in the net.

Yeah... when I look around the league there are 3 really elite defensive teams (Florida, Dallas, and Carolina) and then about 10 good, but not near the level of the top 3. Avs are somewhere in that group. Maybe not pushing the top of that group, but probably also not pushing the bottom either. When the Avs won the Cup, they weren't a top team defensively either... in that next group down. The return from Covid year was the only year the Avs were really elite defensively... and it could be reasonably stated that is because of who they played and the oddities of that schedule.

What I would say is the Avs are one of the weaker teams defensively in the playoffs for the West... not because they are bad, but the best defensive teams are pretty much all out West. Dallas is clearly better. Edmonton, Vancouver and LA are all ahead IMO... not a huge amount, but ahead. Vegas and Winnipeg could easily be slotted ahead too depending on what you value. I would say 5th-7th best defensively in the West playoff picture is fairly reasonable. Nashville is the only team I would consider the Avs to be significantly ahead of.

 

[the_fan]

What is the definition of a good defensive game? Less than 20 shots given up? 25? 30? Less than 10 High Danger Chances? 12? 15? xGA below 2? 2.5?

I think people would be shocked at how many good defensive games this team has.

How many times this year have we seen Toews and Makar make bad defensive plays? Way more often than we saw in the cup year that’s for sure. That has been the biggest difference defensively this year

 

[redacted]

How many times this year have we seen Toews and Makar make bad defensive plays? Way more often than we saw in the cup year that’s for sure. That has been the biggest difference defensively this year in a bad way

Yeah they are making more mistakes, but it isn't like the Avs are San Jose out there. I wouldn't say it is drastic from the Cup team... just that more of the mistakes are ending up in the back of the net.

 

[The Abusement Park]

How many times this year have we seen Toews and Makar make bad defensive plays? Way more often than we saw in the cup year that’s for sure. That has been the biggest difference defensively this year

Literally every dman makes mistakes during games. The difference between the defense this year and the cup year is negligible.

 

[the_fan]

Yeah they are making more mistakes, but it isn't like the Avs are San Jose out there. I wouldn't say it is drastic from the Cup team... just that more of the mistakes are ending up in the back of the net.

Yup, that’s exactly what it is. It’s either starting games poorly giving up few goals then have to come back and win games, or they play good for majority of the game then have brain farts, few bad mistakes which end up being goals against and losses. Add to that a goalie that can’t make big saves when needed, you got a Avs team that doesn’t look as stable as it was in cup year. Even last year Avs were more stable defensively and Georgiev actually played good.

 

[redacted]

Yup, that’s exactly what it is. It’s either starting games poorly giving up few goals then have to come back and win games, or they play good for majority of the game then have brain farts, few bad mistakes which end up being goals against and losses. Add to that a goalie that can’t make big saves when needed, you got a Avs team that doesn’t look as stable as it was in cup year. Even last year Avs were more stable defensively and Georgiev actually played good.

I don’t at all agree that they were more stable defensively last year. George just played like a goalie should in the system. Thats the difference year over year.

 

[the_fan]

Literally every dman makes mistakes during games. The difference between the defense this year and the cup year is negligible.

We haven’t seen Toews and Makar of all people make as many mistakes as they have this year though. That has been the biggest problem defensively. The other d pairs are what they are, but our top pair hasn’t been the same

 

[The Abusement Park]

We haven’t seen Toews and Makar of all people make as many mistakes as they have this year though. That has been the biggest problem defensively. The other d pairs are what they are, but our top pair hasn’t been the same

The top pairing is probably a step down I’d say from the cup year. But that’s still a damn good pairing and not a problem in the grand scheme of things. Everything just looks worse because every mistake is going into the net.

 

[ABasin]

The top pairing is probably a step down I’d say from the cup year. But that’s still a damn good pairing and not a problem in the grand scheme of things. Everything just looks worse because every mistake is going into the net.

I'm not disagreeing at all in regards to Giorgiev, how poorly he's played, and how it's affecting the team.

But this season, Cale Makar has not been the player he was in 2022. Full stop.

 

[Foppa2118]

The top pairing is probably a step down I’d say from the cup year. But that’s still a damn good pairing and not a problem in the grand scheme of things. Everything just looks worse because every mistake is going into the net.

If your top pair is noticeable worse defensively all year, that's definitely a problem. They play against the opposition's best players every night.

There isn't a big margin for error when you're the last man back before the goalie, and your goalie isn't making all the big saves.

And especially when you're not as dominant offensviely to outscore your mistakes, or have the lead more often, and often by multiple goals, which gets the opposition away from their system, and makes you look better because your opposition is playing into your hands to come back.

Your top pair could just be 10-15% worse and that can amount to a lot of scoring chances and goals against over the course of a season.

Or it can be the difference in winning or losing a game or two in a smaller sample size in the playoffs, and advancing or being eliminated. It's the difference between a dominant Cup team and just a good team with weaknesses.

 

[the_fan]

Last year some people like Mike Kelly were talking about Toews being a top 5 d-man in the league. No one is talking about him this year

 

[redacted]

Last year some people like Mike Kelly were talking about Toews being a top 5 d-man in the league. No one is talking about him this year

That's because he isn't. Toews was really good in the Cup year and he is predictably regressing. That doesn't mean he's not an excellent defensemen. If the Avs have to have all the skaters play at the level of their 21-22 counterparts to win the Cup again, it simply isn't going to happen. That expectation is just setting the bar too high and unrealistically with the cap.

Georgiev is just letting in a ton of goals above expectation. Right now he is at -.18 per game. Of goalies that have played 15+ games since, only Frank last season was in the negative at .05 per since Covid. Grubauer was -.09 in 19-20. Varly was -.12 in 18-19 (when he lost the job). The last goalie with 15+ games that put on a worse performance than George was the corpse of Jiggy in 13-14 with -.27.

Putting it another way... there has not been a starter with the Avs since 07-08 (as far back as NST goes) with a worse GSAA than George. Not a single one. Even Andrew Raycroft in the 1B next to Budaj had a better rate (-.13). Reto Berra's 19 games in the 14-15 (-.15) were even stronger than George.

 

[the_fan]

That's because he isn't. Toews was really good in the Cup year and he is predictably regressing. That doesn't mean he's not an excellent defensemen. If the Avs have to have all the skaters play at the level of their 21-22 counterparts to win the Cup again, it simply isn't going to happen. That expectation is just setting the bar too high and unrealistically with the cap.

Georgiev is just letting in a ton of goals above expectation. Right now he is at -.18 per game. Of goalies that have played 15+ games since, only Frank last season was in the negative at .05 per since Covid. Grubauer was -.09 in 19-20. Varly was -.12 in 18-19 (when he lost the job). The last goalie with 15+ games that put on a worse performance than George was the corpse of Jiggy in 13-14 with -.27.

Putting it another way... there has not been a starter with the Avs since 07-08 (as far back as NST goes) with a worse GSAA than George. Not a single one. Even Andrew Raycroft in the 1B next to Budaj had a better rate (-.13). Reto Berra's 19 games in the 14-15 (-.15) were even stronger than George.

I think we’re all pretty much saying the same thing. Georgiev has been bad, and the Avs defense also regressed.

 

[redacted]

I think we’re all pretty much saying the same thing. Georgiev has been bad, and the Avs defense also regressed.

It is a matter of levels…The Avs defense has only mildly regressed (if at all) from the Cup team. Compared to last season, the defense is arguably better in some areas.

Meanwhile George is arguably having the worst starting goalie performance in Avs’ history.

One of these is the real issue.

 

[ABasin]

That's because he isn't. Toews was really good in the Cup year and he is predictably regressing. That doesn't mean he's not an excellent defensemen. If the Avs have to have all the skaters play at the level of their 21-22 counterparts to win the Cup again, it simply isn't going to happen. That expectation is just setting the bar too high and unrealistically with the cap.

Georgiev is just letting in a ton of goals above expectation. Right now he is at -.18 per game. Of goalies that have played 15+ games since, only Frank last season was in the negative at .05 per since Covid. Grubauer was -.09 in 19-20. Varly was -.12 in 18-19 (when he lost the job). The last goalie with 15+ games that put on a worse performance than George was the corpse of Jiggy in 13-14 with -.27.

Putting it another way... there has not been a starter with the Avs since 07-08 (as far back as NST goes) with a worse GSAA than George. Not a single one. Even Andrew Raycroft in the 1B next to Budaj had a better rate (-.13). Reto Berra's 19 games in the 14-15 (-.15) were even stronger than George.

Would you please elaborate a bit on what that stat means? TIA.

 

[redacted]

Would you please elaborate a bit on what that stat means? TIA.

Goals saved above average. Meaning compared to the league average. Thats all the stat is. For whatever league year, what the average is in those areas and how much better or worse that performance is.

 

[ABasin]

Goals saved above average. Meaning compared to the league average. Thats all the stat is. For whatever league year, what the average is in those areas and how much better or worse that performance is.

Does it take into account PP/PK and/or OT 3-on-3 goals against?

 

[the_fan]

It is a matter of levels…The Avs defense has only mildly regressed (if at all) from the Cup team. Compared to last season, the defense is arguably better in some areas.

Meanwhile George is arguably having the worst starting goalie performance in Avs’ history.

One of these is the real issue.

Goaltending is a bigger issue, I agree

 

[Chiarelli]

You really don't need (appreciate others providing) fancy stats to see that this dude flat out sucks

 

[redacted]

Does it take into account PP/PK and/or OT 3-on-3 goals against?

Yeah… each situation is calculated what the average is and it is compared.

You really don't need (appreciate others providing) fancy stats to see that this dude flat out sucks

I think it helps put in perspective the level of ineptitude.