NHL Entry Draft: Mock Draft Poll: 18th Overall

[QJL]

Gunler is a very polarizing prospect when talking to scouts. They praise his on-ice performance, but there's still this notion stemming from his treatment by Monten which (rightfully or wrongfully) affects the way scouts see Gunler.

Luleå coaches like Gunler a lot and want to put him in a position to succeed. When you talk to them, you hear what he does best. He's lauded for his comradry and when you track him on the bench, I can confirm that. He talks to his teammates a lot. It almost reminds me of quarterbacks in the NFL.

He's not perfect, but who is in that range?

I believe he played under 6 minutes in the first game of the season. He averaged 8 minutes a game last season. He has not been given a real look on the power play. I’d say that’s the opposite of putting a young player in a position to succeed. His role grew a little at the end of last season he might be back to riding the bench.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I believe he played under 6 minutes in the first game of the season. He averaged 8 minutes a game last season. He has not been given a real look on the power play. I’d say that’s the opposite of putting a young player in a position to succeed. His role grew a little at the end of last season he might be back to riding the bench.

Putting a player in a position to succeed isn't just giving him 20 minutes every game. You give him the confidence to do what he does best, and some games allow for that a bit more than others. You put together your line-up based on your opposition. Gunler has gotten many more opportunities than Lucas Raymond for instance, and there are factors that of course play into that such as team strength, depth etc.

For reference, SHL games with a TOI of 12+ minutes last season, their draft year:

Noel Gunler 20 of 45
Lucas Raymond 6 of 33
Alexander Holtz 23 of 35

 

[eco's bones]

Teamwise or organizationally I don't think the Devils have a great need to add centers comparable to other positions which is ideally IMO where I would think most all teams that drafted Holloway would want him to end up as. Just saying.

They have 1. Jack Hughes 2. Nico Hischier 3. Travis Zajac (who's gotten pretty old but I could see them signing short term again) 4. Pavel Zacha 5. Michael McLeod. That's one position they seem to have covered. Holloway could give some size and grit playing center but the best he's going to do barring trade or long term injury to one of the top two is be a 3C or a wing. The Devils two most dangerous wings last year were Kyle Palmieri and Nikita Gusev and Gusev only scored 13 times---he's more of a playmaking wing. Devils fans might go on about Bratt and Boqvist but to me those two are like future 3rd liners on a good team. Wing is the Devils greatest area of weakness IMO and drafting Holtz certainly helps but doesn't entirely solve the problem going forward.

But Holloway also plays left wing. To me if you're looking at him as a wing you have to ask yourself whether his ceiling is as high as Gunler or Reichel or Perreault and IMO it's not. If the Devils draft Holloway and he ends up on the wing--his ceiling might be 2nd line but his likelihood is 3rd line. He'd be a great pickup IMO for the Devils later on in the draft but not at 18.

 

[Trxjw]

I wonder how many people are picking Holloway because they think he's a crap prospect and want the Devils to be saddled with him. Seems to be a guy who is getting the Brady Tkachuk treatment around here.

 

[Edge]

Teamwise or organizationally I don't think the Devils have a great need to add centers comparable to other positions which is ideally IMO where I would think most all teams that drafted Holloway would want him to end up as. Just saying.

They have 1. Jack Hughes 2. Nico Hischier 3. Travis Zajac (who's gotten pretty old but I could see them signing short term again) 4. Pavel Zacha 5. Michael McLeod. That's one position they seem to have covered. Holloway could give some size and grit playing center but the best he's going to do barring trade or long term injury to one of the top two is be a 3C or a wing. The Devils two most dangerous wings last year were Kyle Palmieri and Nikita Gusev and Gusev only scored 13 times---he's more of a playmaking wing. Devils fans might go on about Bratt and Boqvist but to me those two are like future 3rd liners on a good team. Wing is the Devils greatest area of weakness IMO and drafting Holtz certainly helps but doesn't entirely solve the problem going forward.

But Holloway also plays left wing. To me if you're looking at him as a wing you have to ask yourself whether his ceiling is as high as Gunler or Reichel or Perreault and IMO it's not. If the Devils draft Holloway and he ends up on the wing--his ceiling might be 2nd line but his likelihood is 3rd line. He'd be a great pickup IMO for the Devils later on in the draft but not at 18.

The challenge, and the attraction for a lot of teams with Holloway is going to be the concept of how he potentially compliments skilled players.

For a team like New Jersey, there's the potential appeal of him being a center (and sliding into an ideal third role), but there's also the same allure that exists for a team like Edmonton.

In other words, if Holloway is a wing, how does he look riding shotgun with high-skill player in the top six? How does his speed and frame compliment someone like Hughes, or McDavid, or Hischier, or Draisaitl?

I know a lot of people's reactions will be, "He's not a first line winger and if he is, that team is in trouble."

There's some truth to that. But I also think if there's one thing we've seen with our own team, or even franchises like Tampa, Vancouver, etc., it's that sometimes it doesn't matter if the individual support player is "top six calibre" on their own. What matters is if they compliment a legit top six player and can thrive in that role.

Because of his tools, that is going to be the big temptation with Holloway for a lot of teams.

Now in this case, like you, I think the Devils would be better served going for pure offensive skill before taking Holloway. But at 20, I think he's fair game.

 

[Edge]

I wonder how many people are picking Holloway because they think he's a crap prospect and want the Devils to be saddled with him. Seems to be a guy who is getting the Brady Tkachuk treatment around here.

That thought has crossed my mind a few times.

Having said that, I am really curious to see how reactions would be to Holloway ending up as the Rangers pick at 22. Personally, I think that's damn solid. But I don't know if the unease with Holloway extends to the 22nd pick the way it did to 12th pick for fans.

 

[Trxjw]

That thought has crossed my mind a few times.

Having said that, I am really curious to see how reactions would be to Holloway ending up as the Rangers pick at 22. Personally, I think that's damn solid. But I don't know if the unease with Holloway extends to the 22nd pick the way it did to 12th pick for fans.

Barring a really huge slide from someone or a guy like Guhle being there I think Holloway at 22 is a no-brainer. Especially if he's willing to jump ship from Wisco and head to the CHL. Just seems like the early scouting reports around here used too many buzzwords that raise flags in people's minds about him not having the skill to back up his potential ranking.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Voted Amirov

Highest upside at forward left. I think they'd consider a defenseman if there was one on the board here though. Can't see them taking 3 forwards in the first round

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Barring a really huge slide from someone or a guy like Guhle being there I think Holloway at 22 is a no-brainer. Especially if he's willing to jump ship from Wisco and head to the CHL. Just seems like the early scouting reports around here used too many buzzwords that raise flags in people's minds about him not having the skill to back up his potential ranking.

... Or maybe his play raised those flags for us?

 

[eco's bones]

The challenge, and the attraction for a lot of teams with Holloway is going to be the concept of how he potentially compliments skilled players.

For a team like New Jersey, there's the potential appeal of him being a center (and sliding into an ideal third role), but there's also the same allure that exists for a team like Edmonton.

In other words, if Holloway is a wing, how does he look riding shotgun with high-skill player in the top six? How does his speed and frame compliment someone like Hughes, or McDavid, or Hischier, or Draisaitl?

I know a lot of people's reactions will be, "He's not a first line winger and if he is, that team is in trouble."

There's some truth to that. But I also think if there's one thing we've seen with our own team, or even franchises like Tampa, Vancouver, etc., it's that sometimes it doesn't matter if the individual support player is "top six calibre" on their own. What matters is if they compliment a legit top six player and can thrive in that role.

Because of his tools, that is going to be the big temptation with Holloway for a lot of teams.

Now in this case, like you, I think the Devils would be better served going for pure offensive skill before taking Holloway. But at 20, I think he's fair game.

Holloway if he's a wing with the right linemates could turn into a Bill Guerin type and that would be a home run for sure but I think at this point in time that's kind of a reachy prognosis. I think others like Perreault, Reichel and Gunler are safer bets to be scoring wingers than he is. The question is kind of does Holloway have enough of that goal scorer's killer instinct and I'm kind of doubtful---I'm thinking more of 20-25 goals a year ceiling.

 

[Trxjw]

... Or maybe his play raised those flags for us?

I don't think you're representative of the group I was referring to.

 

[Edge]

Holloway if he's a wing with the right linemates could turn into a Bill Guerin type and that would be a home run for sure but I think at this point in time that's kind of a reachy prognosis. I think others like Perreault, Reichel and Gunler are safer bets to be scoring wingers than he is. The question is kind of does Holloway have enough of that goal scorer's killer instinct and I'm kind of doubtful---I'm thinking more of 20-25 goals a year ceiling.

The question could also come down to where teams project someone like Perrault vs. Holloway.

Let's say Holloway tops out at 20 goals and 40 points, and Perrault tops out at 30 goals and 50 points. What other attributes are in play? Does Holloway bring other elements to the table in addition to scoring? Is Perrault pretty much useless when he isn't getting the puck to shoot?

I think those are big factors that teams are going to be looking when they make these picks. We all use the words "talent" and "skill" when talking about these kids. But the reality is that both words are pretty subjective.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Holloway if he's a wing with the right linemates could turn into a Bill Guerin type and that would be a home run for sure but I think at this point in time that's kind of a reachy prognosis. I think others like Perreault, Reichel and Gunler are safer bets to be scoring wingers than he is. The question is kind of does Holloway have enough of that goal scorer's killer instinct and I'm kind of doubtful---I'm thinking more of 20-25 goals a year ceiling.

I'd say 10-15.

I know @Trxjw wasn't comparing him to Tkachuk, but even though they had similar goal totals in the NCAA, Brady lived in the paint while he was at BU, his low goal total was more indicative of bad luck than lack of ability.

Holloway almost never attacks those areas. His offensive game is very much a perimeter attack and he doesn't have the skill set to be productive from the outside. I'd also worry about how much growth he has left physically, he's pretty mature in that respect already.

 

[kovazub94]

Interestingly, The Athletic just released their mock draft and it's very similar through the first 13 picks (Amirov) but then very different afterwards.

 

[Edge]

Who is on the board when Carp made his pick?

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

I wonder how many people are picking Holloway because they think he's a crap prospect and want the Devils to be saddled with him. Seems to be a guy who is getting the Brady Tkachuk treatment around here.

Certainly my suspicion as well...

 

[True Blue]

Certainly my suspicion as well...

I cannot lie. I found myself questioning my choice of Perrault here, knowing that at this point I would love for Holloway to fall to 22. Sort of the reverse of what you are advocating.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Who is on the board when Carp made his pick?

Here are the picks from 8 onwards sans writeups from the beat writers who made them (most scouts he interviewed agreed with the first 7, and the names are all familiar):

8. Buffalo: Alexander Holtz, RW, Djurgarden-SHL
9. Minnesota: Anton Lundell, C, HIFK-Liiga
10. Winnipeg: Jake Sanderson, D, USNTDP-USHL
11. Nashville: Jack Quinn, RW, Ottawa-OHL
12. Florida: Seth Jarvis, C, Portland-WHL
13. Carolina: Yaroslav Askarov, G, SKA-VHL
14. Edmonton: Dylan Holloway, C, Wisconsin-Big 10
15. Toronto: Mavrik Bourque, C, Shawinigan-QMJHL
16. Montreal: Hendrix Lapierre, C, Chicoutimi-QMJHL
17. Chicago: Dawson Mercer, C, Chicoutimi-QMJHL
18. New Jersey: Connor Zary, C, Kamloops-WHL
19. Calgary: Braden Schneider, D, Brandon-WHL
20. New Jersey: Kaiden Guhle, D, Prince Albert-WHL
21. Columbus: William Wallinder, D, MODO-Allsvenskan
22. New York Rangers: Tyson Foerster, RW, Barrie-OHL
23. Philadelphia: Noel Gunler, RW, Lulea-SHL
24. Colorado: Sam Colangelo, RW, Chicago-USHL
25. Washington: Rodion Amirov, LW, Ufa-KHL
26. St. Louis: Jan Mysak, C, Hamilton-OHL
27. Anaheim: Jacob Perreault, RW, Sarnia-OHL
28. Ottawa: Lukas Reichel, LW, Berlin-DEL
29. Vegas: Ridly Greig, C, Brandon-WHL
30. Dallas: John-Jason Peterka, LW, Munich-DEL
31. San Jose: Brendan Brisson, C, Chicago-USHL

And here is select commentary from Pronman & scouts:

I think center Ridly Greig and both of the German wingers, Lukas Reichel and John-Jason Peterka, will go higher than they went in our mock.
I would be surprised but not shocked if Guhle got to No. 20. I also think Halifax defenseman Justin Barron is a name who has an above 50 percent chance to go in the top 31.

The panel of scouts pushed back on Lundell at No. 9. Even those who were advocates of Lundell felt that was slightly too high for what he projects out as. Most felt Jake Sanderson went too low, as well.
A couple of scouts felt Bourque went too high. “If Toronto wanted Bourque or a player similar to Bourque, they could trade down to get him,” said one scout.
Most expressed reservations about Lapierre going around No. 16. I think that’s a realistic possibility.
On the two WHL defensemen, Braden Schneider and Kaiden Guhle, scouts said that both defenders went too high while others said they went too low, reflecting the players’ divisive perceptions in the industry.
Several scouts thought Greig went too low. “In the public, Greig seems to have this perception as a projected-bottom-six type. To me, he’s one of the most skilled players in the draft. I think he’ll go closer to 20 than 30,” said one NHL scout.
A couple of scouts thought Mysak and Foerster went too high and wouldn’t go in the first round. Based on my understanding, both have a decent chance to go on Day 1. Foerster more in the 25-35 range, and Mysak more likely as one of the last few picks in the first round.
Several scouts felt Amirov went too low and was a strong candidate to go in the upper half of the first round, whereas others liked where we had him due to signability concerns as a Russian playing in the KHL.
Some felt Brisson went too low. “If you flipped the two Chicago kids, Colangelo and Brisson, I think that’s closer to how it will actually play out,” said one scout.
Finally, a couple of the NHL scouts felt Edmonton forward Jake Neighbours should have gone in the top 31.

 

[eco's bones]

The question could also come down to where teams project someone like Perrault vs. Holloway.

Let's say Holloway tops out at 20 goals and 40 points, and Perrault tops out at 30 goals and 50 points. What other attributes are in play? Does Holloway bring other elements to the table in addition to scoring? Is Perrault pretty much useless when he isn't getting the puck to shoot?

I think those are big factors that teams are going to be looking when they make these picks. We all use the words "talent" and "skill" when talking about these kids. But the reality is that both words are pretty subjective.

There are things that both Holloway and Perreault need to work on. They're both pretty good skaters and that's a good starting point. I had the impression watching clips of Holloway that he was playing at Wisconsin on an Olympic sized rink---I might be wrong on that. But it could point to why he doesn't get to the front of the net as much because I think that observation by GOS is on point. He's also playing against bigger, older players than Perreault. You don't score goals from the perimeter in the NHL. Perreault IMO is the more natural goal scorer and a more natural offensive player in general---it's just everything you read or any scouting clip you watch it's pointed out that he's lackadaisical as far as 2 way play. So neither are finished products and both need to improve areas of their games. Neither would be a terrible pick here at 18 by the Devils and I would be fine with the Rangers taking either of them at 22---but there are others I'm interested in as well--like Amirov and Greig etc.

 

[eco's bones]

Here are the picks from 8 onwards sans writeups from the beat writers who made them (most scouts he interviewed agreed with the first 7, and the names are all familiar):

8. Buffalo: Alexander Holtz, RW, Djurgarden-SHL
9. Minnesota: Anton Lundell, C, HIFK-Liiga
10. Winnipeg: Jake Sanderson, D, USNTDP-USHL
11. Nashville: Jack Quinn, RW, Ottawa-OHL
12. Florida: Seth Jarvis, C, Portland-WHL
13. Carolina: Yaroslav Askarov, G, SKA-VHL
14. Edmonton: Dylan Holloway, C, Wisconsin-Big 10
15. Toronto: Mavrik Bourque, C, Shawinigan-QMJHL
16. Montreal: Hendrix Lapierre, C, Chicoutimi-QMJHL
17. Chicago: Dawson Mercer, C, Chicoutimi-QMJHL
18. New Jersey: Connor Zary, C, Kamloops-WHL
19. Calgary: Braden Schneider, D, Brandon-WHL
20. New Jersey: Kaiden Guhle, D, Prince Albert-WHL
21. Columbus: William Wallinder, D, MODO-Allsvenskan
22. New York Rangers: Tyson Foerster, RW, Barrie-OHL
23. Philadelphia: Noel Gunler, RW, Lulea-SHL
24. Colorado: Sam Colangelo, RW, Chicago-USHL
25. Washington: Rodion Amirov, LW, Ufa-KHL
26. St. Louis: Jan Mysak, C, Hamilton-OHL
27. Anaheim: Jacob Perreault, RW, Sarnia-OHL
28. Ottawa: Lukas Reichel, LW, Berlin-DEL
29. Vegas: Ridly Greig, C, Brandon-WHL
30. Dallas: John-Jason Peterka, LW, Munich-DEL
31. San Jose: Brendan Brisson, C, Chicago-USHL

And here is select commentary from Pronman & scouts:

I would not be happy with the Rangers taking Foerster.

 

[Edge]

Here are the picks from 8 onwards sans writeups from the beat writers who made them (most scouts he interviewed agreed with the first 7, and the names are all familiar):

8. Buffalo: Alexander Holtz, RW, Djurgarden-SHL
9. Minnesota: Anton Lundell, C, HIFK-Liiga
10. Winnipeg: Jake Sanderson, D, USNTDP-USHL
11. Nashville: Jack Quinn, RW, Ottawa-OHL
12. Florida: Seth Jarvis, C, Portland-WHL
13. Carolina: Yaroslav Askarov, G, SKA-VHL
14. Edmonton: Dylan Holloway, C, Wisconsin-Big 10
15. Toronto: Mavrik Bourque, C, Shawinigan-QMJHL
16. Montreal: Hendrix Lapierre, C, Chicoutimi-QMJHL
17. Chicago: Dawson Mercer, C, Chicoutimi-QMJHL
18. New Jersey: Connor Zary, C, Kamloops-WHL
19. Calgary: Braden Schneider, D, Brandon-WHL
20. New Jersey: Kaiden Guhle, D, Prince Albert-WHL
21. Columbus: William Wallinder, D, MODO-Allsvenskan
22. New York Rangers: Tyson Foerster, RW, Barrie-OHL
23. Philadelphia: Noel Gunler, RW, Lulea-SHL
24. Colorado: Sam Colangelo, RW, Chicago-USHL
25. Washington: Rodion Amirov, LW, Ufa-KHL
26. St. Louis: Jan Mysak, C, Hamilton-OHL
27. Anaheim: Jacob Perreault, RW, Sarnia-OHL
28. Ottawa: Lukas Reichel, LW, Berlin-DEL
29. Vegas: Ridly Greig, C, Brandon-WHL
30. Dallas: John-Jason Peterka, LW, Munich-DEL
31. San Jose: Brendan Brisson, C, Chicago-USHL

And here is select commentary from Pronman & scouts:

I will admit that I have a hard time seeing the Rangers going with Foerster when Greig and Amirov are both on the board. While he could be one of the unknowns I don't have on my list for them, I just don't think he's above those two names.

Re: Lapierre, I really want to see where he goes. I think you're going to have lot of variation there. I think he ends up going earlier because someone has him high enough.

Re: Bourque, I think the Leafs are going with a defenseman there. However, I think Bourque could very much be in play for Montreal one pick later.

Re: Holloway, I think Edmonton is a very real possibility for him and I said as much in our mock draft.

Re: Mercer, I would feel very tempted to pursue a deal with Chicago if he was sitting there.

Re: Amirov and Greig, I feel like everyone thinks both of these kids are going to go higher. But they also seem like two kids that could keep getting passed up because a team finds there is one player on the board who is higher on the team's list.

 

[eco's bones]

I will admit that I have a hard time seeing the Rangers going with Foerster when Greig and Amirov are both on the board. While he could be on the unknowns I don't have on my list for them, I just don't think he's above those two names.

Re: Lapierre, I really want to see where he goes. I think you're going to have lot of variation there. I think he ends up going earlier because someone has him high enough.

Re: Bourque, I think the Leafs are going with a defenseman there. However, I think Bourque could very much be in play for Montreal one pick later.

Re: Holloway, I think Edmonton is a very real possibility for him and I said as much in our mock draft.

Re: Mercer, I would feel very tempted to pursue a deal with Chicago if he was sitting there.

Re: Amirov and Greig, I feel like everyone thinks both of these kids are going to go higher. But they also seem like two kids that could keep getting passed up because a team finds there is one player on the board who is higher on the team's list.

I could see Calgary on Holloway as well. His playing style fast and at least somewhat physical fits the profile of a Flames player and I don't think it would hurt his being a homegrown Calgary area player--which is also a reason for the Oilers to reach into enemy territory.

I know you can always count on something unexpected happening but I really don't think Holloway falls as far as the Rangers at 22. He's also not a player that I'd move Georgiev and the #22 to get. Really once Jarvis, Mercer and maybe Guhle are off the board I'm not moving Georgiev for anybody that's left. I'm waiting to see who's there at 22 figuring I'm going to get someone I like a lot anyway. If someone is willing to move a late 1st or early 2nd for Alex then I'd consider it. If I were to guess though Holloway's solidly in that 15-20 range. Someone around there is going to take him.

 

[Savant]

I wonder how many people are picking Holloway because they think he's a crap prospect and want the Devils to be saddled with him. Seems to be a guy who is getting the Brady Tkachuk treatment around here.

Holloway is not Tkachuk. If the vote was being yanked it would be like Brisson or someone

 

[Trxjw]

Holloway is not Tkachuk. If the vote was being yanked it would be like Brisson or someone

Cool, but I didn't say he was Brady Tkachuk.

 

[kovazub94]

I will admit that I have a hard time seeing the Rangers going with Foerster when Greig and Amirov are both on the board. While he could be one of the unknowns I don't have on my list for them, I just don't think he's above those two names.

Looks like Capr wanted to be too smart for his own good. Fine, you don’t see some of the player being available by sliding down to #22, but simultaneously this means that other players already picked would’ve been there, no? Can’t play it both ways.