Without being an ass to certain cities. You have to wonder if MLS starts thinking about the future of the league (ie 20+ yrs from now). And makes decisions on cities that will draw TV viewers not just the most fans in the stadium today. And how can bring Corporate money with them.
Are Cinci/Indy really great plays going forward? Despite the fact that obviously make good choices today.
I may be a little bias', but the 4 markets I'd take are San Diego, St. Louis, San Antonio, and Tampa Bay.
I'm with you. Cincinnati proved something great in 2016 with their support of an expansion USL team...but no single season can prove long-term viability, and Cincinnati is a smaller mid-sized city with a shrinking population and a MLB team that would be competition during the meat of the MLS schedule. I have no doubt in my mind that FC Cincinnati having such a good start was aided by the fact that everybody in baseball projected the Reds to lose 95+ games last year (they exceeded expectations by merely losing 94) and with that Reds attendance dipped by nearly 25% from 2015 to 2016, which no doubt aided a shiny new team. USL games are also incredibly cheap, season tickets for students are $50 for FCC and general admission is $75...for
season tickets. The most expensive season tickets are $65 less than the
cheapest season tickets for the nearby Columbus Crew.
I'm not saying Cincinnati will be a bad market, I'm saying they still have a lot to prove that no single season could. I want to see how well that market can do when the team isn't brand new and the Reds aren't hopeless. I'd like to see if they can still bring in the attendance when ticket prices quadruple, as they'd have to for the team to have any chance of being profitable in the MLS. Unfortunately most of those questions could only be answered by them actually having an MLS team...but I'm still not buying it as sustainable at this point in time.
I do think it'll be 4 teams out of these, possibly 5 if they finally give up on Miami (please give up on Miami), but there's only a couple of the markets that I feel strongly about. San Diego should absolutely get a team to fill the void left by the Chargers (though their upside would be limited given the closeness of Xolos, literally a 24 mile drive between stadiums...but the lack of a border crossing (and language barrier) would mean a lot to the majority non-Latino population), ditto St. Louis for the Rams. I feel strongly about Sacramento, but the Nagle situation raises a major red flag about that group. After that I'm kind of open. If Miami gets ditched then Tampa absolutely should have a team...actually I'd tend to think Tampa should get a team again regardless, especially if the Rays don't get their stadium situation figured out, also I kinda want to see the Rowdies brand in the MLS, but I'm not convinced that it'd be a runaway success a la Orlando City.
The only bid I'm outright against is Phoenix. I see neither a widespread desire for a team there, nor the support of their other teams to dissuade the same concerns I have over smaller cities like Cincinnati and Indianapolis being able to support their teams long-term.
Also I'd put a team in Raleigh
long before I'd ever consider Charlotte, but that isn't to say I don't think Charlotte could support a team. That's a clear either/or situation and I just think the demographics of Raleigh are a much better fit for the MLS than Charlotte is...though their branding is painfully lame.