OT: MLB Thread 2025
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Raspewtin
Stay at home defenseman hater
- May 30, 2013
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I'm well aware the Yankees bullpen don't exactly have an army of rocket arms but I don't see what this has to do with the conversation that pitchers throw much harder than they used to and in different pitch types? It's a literal fact.
Every team has guys like that. So it's simply a vast overstatement.
Machinehead
Bring Back Olli
Yeah and quality hitting will probably take their bullpen behind the woodshed like the Dodgers did.
GoAwayPanarin
learn w/ da bern
Gwynn wouldn't be nearly as good today and it isn't just a change of approach thing. The lower value thing for players of his ilk is real, there are a shit load of match up lefties that would eat his life today that just didn't exist when he played.
That doesn't mean he would suck, but he wouldn't be nearly as effective.
I love overlays, but trying to time one for 2 different guys is always awkward and not really accurate.
Not saying Ryan was a soft tossing schmuck, he pumped gas and I have no doubt that broke triple digits but again (he's baseball's all time K leader for a reason), it's a shit example because he was the only guy who was able to do it when he played.
There was a game last week where Jack Leiter topped out at 99.1 and it was the 53rd hardest pitch thrown in that game.
It's not just the technology. Guys are throwing way harder and with more spin/movement than they used to on the regular and it was even crazier a few years ago before the spider tack got banned.
I don't know what you're trying to show me with the fangraphs data. All I see is a steady rise in K's over time which.... aligns with what I've been saying? The launch angle focus has some impact, but not nearly as much as the fact that guys are throwing sliders with ridiculous tilt harder than what the average fastball was 20 years ago.
Loiasiga literally throws a sinker that hits 100 mph. And he isn't even THAT good.
That doesn't mean he would suck, but he wouldn't be nearly as effective.
I think you're the one missing the point by continuing to compare pitch velo clocked using 40 year old tech vs today’s. Watch the video from pitching ninja - Does Aroldis Chapman really throw 5 mph harder than ryan did 50 years ago? Doesn't look like it when viewed as an overlay. But that difference in velo is across the board because of how the tech was used - it's not just different on those guys. I remember watching Sid Fernandez in particular and his pitches looked like a 95 mph fastball and the clock would read 82. Maybe it was his weird motion but still - it always drove me crazy.
Do guys today throw harder? Sure it is a point of emphasis - higher velo is more important than control. Does it make them better? How do you measure? Strikeouts are definitely up but is that solely due to increased velo or due to changes in batters approach (HR or bust)? Its also possibly the change in value to a teams roster of an extra reliver vs an extra utility player - 50 years ago relievers were failed starters as opposed to specialty 7th inning guys today. But then starters went from about 7 IP/start to just over 5 so relievers weren't nearly as heavily used back then. If you look at leaguewide bullpen stats over the years, K/9 are up but most everything else is about the same.
I love overlays, but trying to time one for 2 different guys is always awkward and not really accurate.
Not saying Ryan was a soft tossing schmuck, he pumped gas and I have no doubt that broke triple digits but again (he's baseball's all time K leader for a reason), it's a shit example because he was the only guy who was able to do it when he played.
There was a game last week where Jack Leiter topped out at 99.1 and it was the 53rd hardest pitch thrown in that game.
It's not just the technology. Guys are throwing way harder and with more spin/movement than they used to on the regular and it was even crazier a few years ago before the spider tack got banned.
I don't know what you're trying to show me with the fangraphs data. All I see is a steady rise in K's over time which.... aligns with what I've been saying? The launch angle focus has some impact, but not nearly as much as the fact that guys are throwing sliders with ridiculous tilt harder than what the average fastball was 20 years ago.
Loiasiga literally throws a sinker that hits 100 mph. And he isn't even THAT good.
Machinehead
Bring Back Olli
You guys remember that move Ichiro would do where he stepped in the bucket and pulled the ball high and far to right? He would do it to Mariano.
Modern coaches would have him doing that every swing. He would be a completely different player.
Modern coaches would have him doing that every swing. He would be a completely different player.
Raspewtin
Stay at home defenseman hater
- May 30, 2013
- 42,542
- 22,305
not counting Nestor our bullpen gave up 5 ER in 21.2 innings. and 2 of those were Kahnle in game 5, and 2 from Cousins in game 1.
they really weren't an issue at all
If Luis Arraez (fine player, far from some world beater) is allowed to be Luis Arraez in this era than Gwynn and Ichiro would have been too.
Machinehead
Bring Back Olli
Arraez's .469 slugging in 2023 would have been Ichiro's career high. Hell, he straight up outslugs Ichiro for their careers.
Granted, Ichiro was mega old in MLB and spent like ten years in MLB being literally a bad hitter, but teams in this era absolutely would have demanded more xbh's from Ichiro.
Especially considering he probably could have done it if he adjusted to it. Arraez already plays in this era and hasn't really done so.
Also, Arraez kind of has trouble holding down a job, so I don't know how much he's "allowed" to.
I disagree. His stolen bases means he 'slugged' much higher in reality than he did because a lot of those singles were really doubles. Plus he'd be even more of a threat and would have stole more bags in the modern running game with pickoff rules.
No one is changing a single thing about prime Ichiro today. Perfect leadoff hitter
Machinehead
Bring Back Olli
Nobody is immune to revolution. If you gave a team a 21 year old Shaq this offseason, they would have him working on threes the whole summer.
Machinehead
Bring Back Olli
I've seen some big beasts top out at 105 and that's on rare occasions. I think 108 is probably beyond human arms.
But I do think he threw hard and with a lot of fuzz as they say -- which is the norm now.
I've always been one to firmly believe that the game evolves, but also firmly believe that the greats would adapt.
You guys vastly over rate Ks and velocity. A Niekro groundball to short is better than a Ryan K, because it can lead to a double play. Now that we have metrics, we know that #35 in bWAR Niekro was much better than #61 in bWAR Ryan.
Pete Rose has only .1 bWAR more than non-HoFer Schilling and is not even top 1000 in SLG%. The 4 players listed above outslugged him! If he didn't bet on MLB and retired today, he's not a HoFer.
| Willie Jones (15) |
| DJ LeMahieu (14, 36) |
| Trevor Plouffe (9) |
| Gary Redus (13) |
Pete Rose has only .1 bWAR more than non-HoFer Schilling and is not even top 1000 in SLG%. The 4 players listed above outslugged him! If he didn't bet on MLB and retired today, he's not a HoFer.
Machinehead
Bring Back Olli
Of course Pete Rose would be in the Hall of Fame. He has an 80 WAR. Schilling has his own non-baseball reasons for not being in.
Barry Larkin has a similar profile to Rose with 10 fewer WAR and he's in.
The guy we talked about, Ichiro, just got in and it was almost unanimous.
The only difference now is that they would be telling these guys from the time they're teenagers to put the ball in the air more, and they would adapt because they're great players.
Machinehead
Bring Back Olli
GoAwayPanarin
learn w/ da bern
Here is a great who disagrees
I don’t think there are more than maybe 3-4 guys from that era who I’m confident would adapt seamlessly today and one of them is juiced Bonds who would probably run train on the league when it becomes run by AI.
These “back in my day” comments are just lol though. People are trying to pull it with OV too now that he’s broken one of the “unbreakable”records.
Machinehead
Bring Back Olli
Idk, Gretzky says he would get smoked now and I absolutely don't believe him.
Like, yeah, if you transported the original Chipper Jones into today's game with no prep, he would be bad.
If Chipper Jones were born in 2002 and grew up learning everything about the game that we know now, his talent would be adaptable.
There are outliers who just wouldn't be able to cut it outside of their bubble, but most of the uber talented players from the past would be able to succeed if they had a lifetime to prepare for this era, which is what players from this era had.
Gen-Z Gretzky with a Dwyane Johnson diet and a metal stick is dropping 160 on this league.
The literal human cheat code. As roided up as he was, the guy was still incredibly talented. His 2004 season with a 1.422 OPS is nuts.
nyr2k2
Can't Beat Him
- Jul 30, 2005
- 45,719
- 35,604
Yeah I see '99 as the year most often cited as when he started juicing. Had he not started with that and just continued on with his career, he was a comfortable HOFer IMO.
Raspewtin
Stay at home defenseman hater
- May 30, 2013
- 42,542
- 22,305
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