OT: MLB Discussion Thread, Part II: Yanks pay Ellsbury

[ecemleafs]

so this is a good thing for the yanks right?

 

[darko]

so this is a good thing for the yanks right?

It basically means that if a player is coming over from Japan he's almost treated as a free agent. Any team that puts in a bid but doesn't end up getting that player will get their money back.

This hurts Yankees. Lots of teams probably don't even bother posting fees if they know that big market teams are chasing that player.

 

[darko]

Darvish's team (Hokkaido) cashed in at just the right time.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

Andrew Marchand @AndrewMarchand
So, in essence, Tanaka will become a normal free agent with a $20M tax on him. Thus, he will likely sign for more than $10-$12M per yr.
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5m
Andrew Marchand @AndrewMarchand
With proposed new posting system, all teams that bid $20M will be in play so have to figure Yanks, Dodgers, Cubs and others will be in it +

so yes, if the Yankees are really serious about staying under 189, it hurts the Yankees.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

It basically means that if a player is coming over from Japan he's almost treated as a free agent. Any team that puts in a bid but doesn't end up getting that player will get their money back.

This hurts Yankees. Lots of teams probably don't even bother posting fees if they know that big market teams are chasing that player.

I hate this, because these small market teams (with no intention of signing him or competing with offers), will do the big just so the bigger markets have to pay more.

 

[darko]

What it also does is it gives the Japanese players some options. Now you could have more than 10 teams posting bids. That player would then have an option of choosing out of all of those teams.

Under the old system say for instance Reds win the bid. The only option that player would have is to go to Cincinnati or stay in Japan.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

I hate this, because these small market teams (with no intention of signing him or competing with offers), will do the big just so the bigger markets have to pay more.

I don't know of any small market team that would post $20M, and then get into a bidding war just to drive the price up. What happens of Tanaka actually choose them?

You're trying to frame this as some sort of conspiracy against the Yankees and its ridiculous.

"Oh this hurts the Yankees if theyre trying to stay under $189M"

No, the Yankees handing out stupid contracts like candy for years, and their failure to develop any sort of farm system is what hurt them from staying under $189M

 

[darko]

Yeah I cant see small market teams doing it just to spite big market teams. What it does do is it gives smaller market teams like Twins, Royals, Reds, Indians, A's, etc as much of a chance at these players as it would to teams like Yankees, Sox, Rangers, Mariners etc.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

I think the fact that Cano appears lazy at times really clouds some Yankee fan's opinions on the kind of player Cano is. Now I'm NOT saying to give him 250M or 10 years etc, but make no mistake about it, Cano is a GREAT (not good), he's a GREAT player, and with Ellsbury getting 153M (at least) over 7 years, Cano is worth CONSIDERABLY more than Ellsbury is based on many reasons. 1. He's a better player period, 2. He's more durable, 3. His game does not revolve around legs and speed like Ellsbury. Again, I'm not saying they should pay him whatever he wants, but this notion that some fans who think Cano isn't a great player is absolutely crazy.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

I think the fact that Cano appears lazy at times really clouds some Yankee fan's opinions on the kind of player Cano is. Now I'm NOT saying to give him 250M or 10 years etc, but make no mistake about it, Cano is a GREAT (not good), he's a GREAT player, and with Ellsbury getting 153M (at least) over 7 years, Cano is worth CONSIDERABLY more than Ellsbury is based on many reasons. 1. He's a better player period, 2. He's more durable, 3. His game does not revolve around legs and speed like Ellsbury. Again, I'm not saying they should pay him whatever he wants, but this notion that some fans who think Cano isn't a great player is absolutely crazy.

The Yankees need to be really careful. They've always spent big, but at least in the past it was on guys like Jeter and A-Rod who, undoubtedly, put butts in the seats.

I dont know about you, but Im not going to be drawn to the ballpark or to tune in on YES to watch Cano, Ellsbury, and McCann.

Thats a VERY large step down from a prime Jeter, A-Rod, and Mo, but the wild spending hasnt changed.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

I don't know of any small market team that would post $20M, and then get into a bidding war just to drive the price up. What happens of Tanaka actually choose them?

You're trying to frame this as some sort of conspiracy against the Yankees and its ridiculous.

"Oh this hurts the Yankees if theyre trying to stay under $189M"

No, the Yankees handing out stupid contracts like candy for years, and their failure to develop any sort of farm system is what hurt them from staying under $189M

I never stated otherwise, but the luxury tax to make baseball competitive started bc of the Yanks spending, then they capped IFA, then the posting process changes. u want parity in baseball? salary cap. until then the Yankees are doing nothing wrong and they should not be paying for other teams to sign players while their owners pocket it JMO

 

[RGY]

The Yankees need to be really careful. They've always spent big, but at least in the past it was on guys like Jeter and A-Rod who, undoubtedly, put butts in the seats.

I dont know about you, but Im not going to be drawn to the ballpark or to tune in on YES to watch Cano, Ellsbury, and McCann.

Thats a VERY large step down from a prime Jeter, A-Rod, and Mo, but the wild spending hasnt changed.

If the team is winning people will show up. I don't think people will be showing up because of specific players. Regardless the yankees needed a premium talent at catcher and they had a big need in CF.

Still need to work on starting pitcher.

 

[NYGBleedBlueNYR]

I bet Yanks go 8/$200mil but can buyout the final year cheaper. Saves face for Cano & gets it done.

I think I like Santana the most of the UFA SP

I wouldn't mind adding another bullpen arm like Balfour

 

[Zil]

The Yankees need to be really careful. They've always spent big, but at least in the past it was on guys like Jeter and A-Rod who, undoubtedly, put butts in the seats.

I dont know about you, but Im not going to be drawn to the ballpark or to tune in on YES to watch Cano, Ellsbury, and McCann.

Thats a VERY large step down from a prime Jeter, A-Rod, and Mo, but the wild spending hasnt changed.

I can't believe I'm about to spend a post effusively praising a Yankee, but here goes:

I wouldn't put Cano into the same grouping as Ellsbury and McCann. He's on a legitimate Hall of Fame track. He's an outstanding ballplayer. You should absolutely be excited to watch him on your team at his current level of production. Now I might not be in a hurry to give him $200 million or more, but that has nothing to do with what he is now and everything to do with how might age. Guys who give you that kind of power and obp, while playing a strong defensive second base don't come around that often.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

I can't believe I'm about to spend a post effusively praising a Yankee, but here goes:

I wouldn't put Cano into the same grouping as Ellsbury and McCann. He's on a legitimate Hall of Fame track. He's an outstanding ballplayer. You should absolutely be excited to watch him on your team at his current level of production. Now I might not be in a hurry to give him $200 million or more, but that has nothing to do with what he is now and everything to do with how might age. Guys who give you that kind of power and obp, while playing a strong defensive second base don't come around that often.

Im not downplaying his value by any means. Hes much better than those other players.

But hes not a particularly exciting player. I won't speak on the behalf of all NY'ers, but something about his game turns me off. At times, he seems too concerned with making some sort of statement about "Hey, look how easy I make this baseball stuff look."

Hes a great player, but by no means a fan favorite. I wouldnt go to the ballpark to see Robinson Cano.

 

[Zil]

Im not downplaying his value by any means. Hes much better than those other players.

But hes not a particularly exciting player. I won't speak on the behalf of all NY'ers, but something about his game turns me off. At times, he seems too concerned with making some sort of statement about "Hey, look how easy I make this baseball stuff look."

Hes a great player, but by no means a fan favorite. I wouldnt go to the ballpark to see Robinson Cano.

Yeah, but you go to the ballpark primarily to see the team win don't you? You said it yourself, he's extremely valuable. Winning puts butts in the seats and that's especially key if you're the Yankees. Scroll down win curve graphs in this article: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22353

That's why I'd be stunned to see Cano walk. They need him if they want to contend next year.

 

[RGY]

Nice mixture of strawman arguments and classic Yankee fan bluster there.



What does my Mets fandom have to do with my ability to notice that the Yankee farm system is terrible? Robinson Cano is the most recent homegrown impact player the Yankees have produced and he's 31 and a free agent. Does me being a Mets fan change that fact? Did you not notice the glaring lack of talent and depth available from the minors when the injuries started to hit last year?

The question isn't whether the Yankees stack up against the Mets going forward. It's whether they stack up against teams like the Red Sox and Cardinals that can both afford to spend money and are loaded with young talent.



Again, I wasn't making a direct comparison between the Yankees and Mets. I have a post a mere three pages back in this thread begging for the Wilpons to be forced to sell the team. Take that as a hint on my views of their current direction. That said Sandy has done a great job building the farm system up from nothing. Having a ton of talented young pitching most certainly is helping us. Even with Harvey scheduled to miss the season, our rotation for next year looks something like:

1) Wheeler
2) Gee
3) Niese
4) Mejia/Montero/Syndergaard
5) Mejia/Montero/Syndergaard

If ownership was willing to spend on hitters we'd be in great shape.



Let me ask you something: Do you give a **** about all those cups the Canadiens won decades before you were born? Because I sure as **** don't and that's how I feel about the vaunted Yankee history too.

And none of that bravado changes the fact that the most recent extended run of Yankee success was built upon homegrown players. Without Jeter, Posada, Pettitte, Rivera, and Williams it never happens. All of those guys are either gone or about to retire. Where are their replacements?

I'm sure the Yankees will stay competitive because of their willingness to throw money around, but I wouldn't expect any more dominance if I were you. That farm system is one of the worst in baseball. We're entering an era where farm systems are becoming more and more important as the influx of cash into baseball means more and more superstars get extended by their own teams.

If you want to create a quality discussion about the depleted yankees farm system, don't start by informing everyone you are an "avowed yankees hater." Of course yankees fans will respond defensively. The same way I would defend the Rangers if an Islanders fan came on the board and started trash talking the organization.

Now, had you posted what I quoted above first, then I would've completely understood your point. You are right the system does not have the Jeter's or the Rivera's waiting in the wings. The organization has fallen into the trap of an endless cycle of signing big name free agents while sacrificing 1st round picks many times. You can tell me all you want about the concerns for the present, but the allure of the yankees organization as a whole is based on 27 world series championships. The market around THIS team expects winning teams...every year. It has been a mindset that was instilled in this city and fan base from an owner that added 7 more World Series championships to the organization. It is very hard to expect them to rebuild. Free Agency changed the game. Agents like Scott Boras changed the game. Yes in the early 90s, Gene Michael was able to convince the Steinbrenner and the Yankees brass to be patient and develop young talent. Salaries weren't as bloated then. I don't think you will see the Yankees go through a true rebuild for a long, long time. They just recently won 4 years ago, while they have had to witness the red sox win 3 times in the last decade. Yes, the Yankees base part of what they do off what the Red Sox do. It goes back and forth.

Their farm system certainly isn't stellar. And yes I admire the Mets for developing better pitching. Heck, I faced one of your up and coming prospects a couple years ago. Some of the yankees pitching prospects ran into bumps in the road with injuries so that certainly didn't help. Robertson, slated to be the new closer, was developed in the Yankees system. Gardner, yankees system. Cano, yankees system. Nova, yankees system. It is not a lot, but those guys are key components. Hopefully Cano re-signs.

Bottom line is, no organization is perfect, but if you want to criticize the yankees farm system, I'll come right back in their defense and criticism of continuous Mets mismanagement on the Major League level. You are right, they won't spend money on hitters. They brought the fences in after the Jason Bay disaster and Wright's numbers dipping. Why aren't they adding the bats to compete? What happens if more of those pitchers get hurt? How long will you have Wheeler and Harvey for? How long will they want to stay in an organization that isn't winning? It baffles me as to why the Mets don't add the bats. They are out there. They may have to overpay but sometimes the benefits outweighs the cost.

People are criticizing the contract for Ellsbury. I didn't like bringing in Johnny Damon, but in the end he was a big part of winning that World Series in 2009. And at the end of the day, that is what it's all about. If Ellsbury comes here and helps the yankees win just one world series then I'll consider that contract a success.

Next year's free agent class looks bleak. Thus forfeiting picks this year is not a big deal to me because you likely will be keeping them all next year. Not to mention the Yankees picks were not going to be top 5-10 picks. So anyone they drafted this year wouldn't be ready for a few years. Even top 5 picks don't show up in the big leagues for a couple years.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

I can't believe I'm about to spend a post effusively praising a Yankee, but here goes:

I wouldn't put Cano into the same grouping as Ellsbury and McCann. He's on a legitimate Hall of Fame track. He's an outstanding ballplayer. You should absolutely be excited to watch him on your team at his current level of production. Now I might not be in a hurry to give him $200 million or more, but that has nothing to do with what he is now and everything to do with how might age. Guys who give you that kind of power and obp, while playing a strong defensive second base don't come around that often.

THIS.. Im scratching my head so damn much at this "hard line" with Cano which I was in favor of UNTIL the Ellsbury deal. How can u be willing to give Jacoby 8 years when he will be 31 next season but not Cano when he will be 32? Cano is on a whole nother level compared to Ellsbury

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

I don't think some Yankee fans realize how good Cano is.. Jeter played 17 games last season, mark Teixiera played 15 games, Granderson? 61, Arod? 44 games.. Soriano? 58.. That means Cano played almost 100 games with NONE of them in the lineup. With no one hitting in front OR behind him, this was his season.. 160 games, 314/27/107 with an OBP of .388, an OPS of .899, and an OPS+ of 145 with a team that was 16th in RS last season with 650 runs scored, on top of his offense he is good for at least 150+ games per season, and he plays GG defense at a position which quite frankly doesn't produce much elite talent, hes not just very good, hes great as he proved again last season with zero help until Soriano arrived. I think some Yankee fans just really underrate how good he is because they make a mountain out of a molehill where he doesnt hustle 100 percent of the time.

 

[RGY]

I don't think some Yankee fans realize how good Cano is.. Jeter played 17 games last season, mark Teixiera played 15 games, Granderson? 61, Arod? 44 games.. Soriano? 58.. That means Cano played almost 100 games with NONE of them in the lineup. With no one hitting in front OR behind him, this was his season.. 160 games, 314/27/107 with an OBP of .388, an OPS of .899, and an OPS+ of 145 with a team that was 16th in RS last season with 650 runs scored, on top of his offense he is good for at least 150+ games per season, and he plays GG defense at a position which quite frankly doesn't produce much elite talent, hes not just very good, hes great as he proved again last season with zero help until Soriano arrived. I think some Yankee fans just really underrate how good he is because they make a mountain out of a molehill where he doesnt hustle 100 percent of the time.

I think he settles with yankees for 7 years, $189 million. $27 million per year. NMC. Team option for 8th year at $11 million. Could be a total $200 million contract. Seattle may offer $220. He decides NYY is more valuable to him than Seattle.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

I think he settles with yankees for 7 years, $189 million. $27 million per year. NMC. Team option for 8th year at $11 million. Could be a total $200 million contract. Seattle may offer $220. He decides NYY is more valuable to him than Seattle.

Thats a solid offer, especially after the Ellsbury signing. There is no way he choses Seattle IMO for 20M more, another team like perhaps Tex, Det, etc? sure. Seattle? not so much

 

[RGY]

Thats a solid offer, especially after the Ellsbury signing. There is no way he choses Seattle IMO for 20M more, another team like perhaps Tex, Det, etc? sure. Seattle? not so much

But where are Detroit or Texas putting him? Detroit has Kinsler now. Texas has Profar and Andrus. Unless they move Profar for Price. But Texas still has to pay Price and they just added Fielder. Now I know Detroit is paying a portion of Fielder's deal but still, do they have even more money for Cano? Beltre is over there as well. Who is catching for them? They have holes to fill. I think Texas ends up deciding against Price, buying low on one of the SPs on the market and keeping their youth up the middle.

 

[Zil]

If you want to create a quality discussion about the depleted yankees farm system, don't start by informing everyone you are an "avowed yankees hater." Of course yankees fans will respond defensively. The same way I would defend the Rangers if an Islanders fan came on the board and started trash talking the organization.

Now, had you posted what I quoted above first, then I would've completely understood your point.

I didn't start by saying that. I started by talking about how you can get superstars in the late parts of the first round of the draft because I wanted to correct the misconception that the baseball draft works like the hockey draft. I then followed that by asking the Yankees to keep it up because it's going to bite them in the ass. It actually started happening last year when no help came when the veterans got injured.

You are right the system does not have the Jeter's or the Rivera's waiting in the wings. The organization has fallen into the trap of an endless cycle of signing big name free agents while sacrificing 1st round picks many times.

This was my main point.

You can tell me all you want about the concerns for the present, but the allure of the yankees organization as a whole is based on 27 world series championships. The market around THIS team expects winning teams...every year.

That's why I posted the baseballprospectus article in response to BRB. But you need a farm system producing talent if you want to contend every year. You can't pay every single guy on the roster between $17 and $28 million per year. And continuously locking yourself into those kinds of contracts makes it harder to sustain success, not easier.

It has been a mindset that was instilled in this city and fan base from an owner that added 7 more World Series championships to the organization. It is very hard to expect them to rebuild. Free Agency changed the game. Agents like Scott Boras changed the game. Yes in the early 90s, Gene Michael was able to convince the Steinbrenner and the Yankees brass to be patient and develop young talent. Salaries weren't as bloated then. I don't think you will see the Yankees go through a true rebuild for a long, long time. They just recently won 4 years ago, while they have had to witness the red sox win 3 times in the last decade. Yes, the Yankees base part of what they do off what the Red Sox do. It goes back and forth.

You're working under the assumption that you have to stop competing to build up a strong farm system. The CBA is littered with ways to for big market clubs to beef up their farm system thanks to the compensation system. The Cardinals have been in the playoffs four out of the last five years and they have done all of that while amassing a staggering amount of young talent. The key is good scouting and player development people.

Yes, the Yankees base part of what they do off what the Red Sox do. It goes back and forth.

But notice that the Red Sox have wised up and stopped counterpunching. The Yankees signed Ellsbury and the Red Sox basically shrugged because they have Jackie Bradley Jr. to plug in thanks to their system.

Their farm system certainly isn't stellar. And yes I admire the Mets for developing better pitching. Heck, I faced one of your up and coming prospects a couple years ago. Some of the yankees pitching prospects ran into bumps in the road with injuries so that certainly didn't help. Robertson, slated to be the new closer, was developed in the Yankees system. Gardner, yankees system. Cano, yankees system. Nova, yankees system. It is not a lot, but those guys are key components. Hopefully Cano re-signs.

You listed four guys and the best two of them are in their 30s. Cano is 31. Gardner is 30. Even Robertson and Nova are 28 and 26 respectively. That's a stunningly small amount of production from the farm system. The Yankees are heading into next year without a single member of their starting nine under the age of 30.

Bottom line is, no organization is perfect, but if you want to criticize the yankees farm system, I'll come right back in their defense and criticism of continuous Mets mismanagement on the Major League level.

Ok, but that doesn't do anything to invalidate my points. It just changes the subject.

You are right, they won't spend money on hitters. They brought the fences in after the Jason Bay disaster and Wright's numbers dipping. Why aren't they adding the bats to compete? What happens if more of those pitchers get hurt? How long will you have Wheeler and Harvey for? How long will they want to stay in an organization that isn't winning? It baffles me as to why the Mets don't add the bats. They are out there. They may have to overpay but sometimes the benefits outweighs the cost.

It's very simple: Sandy is great, but the Wilpons are broke. They should be forced to sell the team, but they won't be because they're best friends with Selig.

People are criticizing the contract for Ellsbury. I didn't like bringing in Johnny Damon, but in the end he was a big part of winning that World Series in 2009. And at the end of the day, that is what it's all about. If Ellsbury comes here and helps the yankees win just one world series then I'll consider that contract a success.

Damon got $52 million over four years. Ellsbury got $153 million over seven years. I know revenues have gone way up across baseball, but that's a massive jump. Also, the Yankees are in a way worse position today than they were heading into 2007. Back then they were a reigning division champ and the only competition they faced for a playoff spot was Boston. Now they're an 85 win team (that sported a -21 run differential) that has to deal with Boston, Tampa, and conceivably Baltimore.

Also, one championship might not be so great if it's balanced off by serious pain in the last few years of the deal. Like you said, the Yankees need to contend every year to satisfy their market.

Next year's free agent class looks bleak. Thus forfeiting picks this year is not a big deal to me because you likely will be keeping them all next year. Not to mention the Yankees picks were not going to be top 5-10 picks. So anyone they drafted this year wouldn't be ready for a few years. Even top 5 picks don't show up in the big leagues for a couple years.

Ah yes, but there's a hidden cost there called development time. Most prospects take three to five years to reach the majors from the time you draft them. Pushing that clock back an extra year further delays when help can arrive from an already depleted system. On top of that, the Yankees were scheduled to pick 18th, which would've been their highest pick in years. And like I noted before, signing Ellsbury costs them the comp pick they would've gotten for Granderson thanks to the new CBA. And again, there's no more drafting guys overslot allowed so it's not like they can compensate with extra cash.

 

[BroadwayBlues]

Andrew Marchand @AndrewMarchand
So, in essence, Tanaka will become a normal free agent with a $20M tax on him. Thus, he will likely sign for more than $10-$12M per yr.
Expand
5m
Andrew Marchand @AndrewMarchand
With proposed new posting system, all teams that bid $20M will be in play so have to figure Yanks, Dodgers, Cubs and others will be in it +

so yes, if the Yankees are really serious about staying under 189, it hurts the Yankees.

I really wonder if they are serious. If so, why sign Ellsbury to that contract (assuming it would prohibit them from signing Tanaka) when you know you need pitching more?

 

[Zil]

I really wonder if they are serious. If so, why sign Ellsbury to that contract (assuming it would prohibit them from signing Tanaka) when you know you need pitching more?

Unless they have inside intel that A-Rod's entire suspension is going to be upheld, that $189 million number was a smokescreen.