Player Discussion Mitch Marner

[Mess]

Cool. Now let's do the 31st to 48th highest AAV in the league as a general reference.

So basically an $8.7 to $9.5 million player.

Here are some of Marner's RW comparables.

RW - Nikita Kucherov coming off a 100 assist 144 point season and 2 X recent Stanley Cups makes $9.5 mil AAV
RW- Matthew Tkachuk coming off a Stanley Cup makes $9.5 mil
RW - Mikko Rantanen coming off 42 goal 106 point season and recent Stanley Cup makes $9.5 mil

Marner at $9.5 mil AAV and a PAYCUT down from $10.9 looks badly out of place on that list.

However

RW - Mitch Marner coming off a 1 goal 2 assist playoff = $12.5 mil AAV? This seems about a fair ask on his part.

Only in Toronto would you find a place where contracts and comparables mean nothing and Leaf players simply get paid regardless of performance.

 

[rumman]

He knows only one team is willing to pay him his asking price. Will be interesting to see how he performs in the playoffs without a new contract.

I think once he sees what’s expected of him and how Chief deploys him he’ll be asking for a trade……..

 

[Gabriel426]

I know everyone says Marner's shot sucks.

31st in wrist shot goals, 48th for snapshot goals, 54th in slap shot goals, and 45th in goals over the last 3 years.

I know he doesn't have a super deadly shot, but I think his shot is underrated.

And he is a top 10 salary for forwards.
With the amount he is getting paid, he should put up close to top 15 stats.

 

[PROUD PAPA]

I think once he sees what’s expected of him and how Chief deploys him he’ll be asking for a trade……..

Never know. He got Bozak to play like a man, nobody else could.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think once he sees what’s expected of him and how Chief deploys him he’ll be asking for a trade……..

This past playoffs already showed how MM will perform under stress of a men’s contract. He knew if he had done well, he would already signed the 100mil extension by now instead of being asked to waive and get traded to another team.

Same with JT, if he had done well in the playoffs, he would had signed an extension already instead of being asked to be strip of his captaincy.

Maybe they will end up staying at the end but it seems like both won’t be back after their contracts expired at this point. Since there is no talks of extension and when you compare it to last summer, it was when will AM and Willie sign for how much.

 

[notbias]

And he is a top 10 salary for forwards.
With the amount he is getting paid, he should put up close to top 15 stats.

McDavid had 32 goals in 76 games, do you want to complain he doesn't score enough for his salary?

Marner had 26 in 69 for reference.

Almost like there are assists as well and both of these players are primarily playmakers.

Goals seem to matter a lot on these board but only when it comes to Marner.

 

[Antropovsky]

How's his accuracy? Assuming that'd be taken into account.

Skating speed is irrelevant to this conversation.

Yup, his high shooting % only thing that is keeping him in decent totals. How much is his high shot % have to do with goalies cheating shot on Matthews? Marners goals totals are always much higher than his expected goals.

There are very few wingers top paid wingers playing on lines with centers with talent levels of 27 year old Tavares, or prime Matthews. Just Rantanen and Draisaitl really.

Put Marner with your run of the mill #1 center and it's scary to think what his numbers would look like.

Take 3 million dollar Domi for example.

5vs5 Domi was #2 in the league in total assists/60 this year. Second only to Mcdavid. Domi only played a fraction of the season with Matthews compared to Marner. If Matthews is elevating 3 million Domi to #2... what's Matthews been doing for Marner?

Matthews averages 4.93 points/60 with Domi in 206 mins together
Matthews averages 2.75 points/60 with Marner in 720 mins together

Matthews would get approximately 82.17 points in 1000 minutes with Domi and approximately 45.83 points in 1000 minutes with Marner. So, Matthews was pretty much 2x more productive with 3 million dollar Domi, than he was with 11 million dollar Marner. 82 5v5 points puts Matthews with Mcdavid and Mackinnon. Where you would certainly expect a lindsay winner (2x finalist) and 3x rocket winner.

Let me guess, coincidence?

 

[notbias]

Yup, his high shooting % only thing that is keeping him in decent totals. How much is his high shot % have to do with goalies cheating shot on Matthews? Marners goals totals are always much higher than his expected goals.

There are very few wingers top paid wingers playing on lines with centers with talent levels of 27 year old Tavares, or prime Matthews. Just Rantanen and Draisaitl really.

Put Marner with your run of the mill #1 center and it's scary to think what his numbers would look like.

Take 3 million dollar Domi for example.

5vs5 Domi was #2 in the league in total assists/60 this year. Second only to Mcdavid. Domi only played a fraction of the season with Matthews compared to Marner. If Matthews is elevating 3 million Domi to #2... what's Matthews been doing for Marner?

Matthews averages 4.93 points/60 with Domi in 206 mins together
Matthews averages 2.75 points/60 with Marner in 720 mins together

So, Matthews would get approximately 82.17 points in 1000 minutes with Domi and approximately 45.83 points in 1000 minutes with Marner.

Let me guess, coincidence?

I don't care about points, so I'll ignore most of your post since it is nonsense and pointless to the conversation we are having about his shot.

Wouldn't a high shooting % mean a good shot?

How much of it is because of Matthews? You tell me, it's going to be a made-up number anyway.

 

[rumman]

Never know. He got Bozak to play like a man, nobody else could.

Too funny, I heard Chief tell a story where Bozak’s dad was acting like a reporter in a media scrum and asked Chief when he was going to use Bozak in a more prominent role. Talk about brass balls……..

 

[Gabriel426]

McDavid had 32 goals in 76 games, do you want to complain he doesn't score enough for his salary?

Marner had 26 in 69 for reference.

Almost like there are assists as well and both of these players are primarily playmakers.

Goals seem to matter a lot on these board but only when it comes to Marner.

Stop comparing McD to any players in the league.
It is just foolish at this point.

Also last time I checked, 32 goals is still more than 26 goals. McD actually won a Rocket

Simply put, if McD is available for trades, all other 31 teams will be outbidding for his service.
When MM was available or maybe he still is, NO team in the league is willing to overpay for him.

If Oilers call and ask for McD and MM for a trade. We can plan the parade.

 

[Antropovsky]

McDavid had 32 goals in 76 games, do you want to complain he doesn't score enough for his salary?

Marner had 26 in 69 for reference.

Almost like there are assists as well and both of these players are primarily playmakers.

Goals seem to matter a lot on these board but only when it comes to Marner.

Now do assists. Everyone always says, Marner doesnt have to score because he is primarily a playmaker. This must be close right?

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Feels like he's back for the year. However, perhaps the chances of an extension will be based on the 2025 playoffs and his performance

 

[notbias]

Stop comparing McD to any players in the league.
It is just foolish at this point.

Also last time I checked, 32 goals is still more than 26 goals. McD actually won a Rocket

Simply put, if McD is available for trades, all other 31 teams will be outbidding for his service.
When MM was available or maybe he still is, NO team in the league is willing to overpay for him.

If Oilers call and ask for McD and MM for a trade. We can plan the parade.

We are talking about shots and goals... McDavid is not the best at every skill, he is allowed to be compared to other players.

Not sure why you're commenting if you're adding absolutely nothing.

Now do assists. Everyone always says, Marner doesnt have to score because he is primarily a playmaker. This must be close right?

We are discussing goals and shooting ability...

Two posts in a row that are irrelevant

 

[Gabriel426]

We are talking about shots and goals... McDavid is not the best at every skill, he is allowed to be compared to other players.

Not sure why you're commenting if you're adding absolutely nothing.



We are discussing goals and shooting ability...

Two posts in a row that are irrelevant

You are funny guy.

Do you get paid to post MM online in order boast his internet traffic.

Even some of the absolute diehard MM fans here won’t even compare him to McD bc they all know there is no comparsion.

 

[notbias]

You are funny guy.

Thanks, appreciate it.

Do you get paid to post MM online in order boast his internet traffic.

Even some of the absolute diehard MM fans here won’t even compare him to McD bc they all know there is no comparsion.

No, I just think people that post irrelevant nonsense should be told so.

I was simply pointing out that goals are not all that matters and used McDavid as an example.

If you want a less extreme example, I can give you some.

It just seems idiotic to latch onto comparing someone to McDavid when I was just proving a point that the best player in the world doesn't get judged only on goals.

 

[Gabriel426]

Thanks, appreciate it.



No, I just think people that post irrelevant nonsense should be told so.

I was simply pointing out that goals are not all that matters and used McDavid as an example.

If you want a less extreme example, I can give you some.

It just seems idiotic to latch onto comparing someone to McDavid when I was just proving a point that the best player in the world doesn't get judged only on goals.

Like I said, I don’t think anyone should use McD as a comparison with any players. It is just foolish.
This is not a Messi and CR7 thing.

McD is literally two or three tiers better than anyone else in the league. Who seems like he could win any awards as long as he wants to. He won a Rocket last year and this year he wants to get 100 assists. Maybe next year, he wants the Selke and instead of getting 140pts, he ends up with 115pts due to starting in the Dzone more.
Pretty sure if he switches to Defense, he will win the Norris.
Not sure how good he is at goaltending though.

 

[Antropovsky]

I don't care about points, so I'll ignore most of your post since it is nonsense and pointless to the conversation we are having about his shot.

Wouldn't a high shooting % mean a good shot?

How much of it is because of Matthews? You tell me, it's going to be a made-up number anyway.

Ok.. let's talk not real numbers, and not "made-up number".

Between season 2021-2024 these are 5vs5 Marners goal totals and shot % with Tavares vs Matthews.

5v5 Marner with Tavares - 1000 mins, 12 goals, 10.9% shot percentage
5v5 Marner with Matthews - 2000 mins, 41 5vs5 goals, 18% shot percentage

Marner's goal-scoring rate with Matthews is about 71% higher than with Tavares.

Hmm...
- Matthews 2x more productive with Domi vs Marner.
- Marner 70% more goals with Matthews vs Tavares.

Looks like the very big star here is Matthews and he's REALLY boosting his linemates. Whose played the most mins with Matthews over the past 3 years and therefore benefited the most? Mitch Marner.

 

[Hellcat]

Stop comparing McD to any players in the league.
It is just foolish at this point.

Also last time I checked, 32 goals is still more than 26 goals. McD actually won a Rocket

Simply put, if McD is available for trades, all other 31 teams will be outbidding for his service.
When MM was available or maybe he still is, NO team in the league is willing to overpay for him.

If Oilers call and ask for McD and MM for a trade. We can plan the parade.

That is the point though, if goals scored are the only metric used to measure Marner's value, the same criteria should be used for all players. We all know there is more to McDavid's game than scoring goals, just like there is more to Marner's game than scoring.

32 goals is more than 26, Marner played 69 games and McDavid scored 32 in 76 games. Marner was on a 31 goal pace and McDavid was on a 34.5 goal pace. From a scoring perspective, 3.5 goals is not a lot.

 

[notbias]

Ok.. let's talk not real numbers, and not "made-up number".

Between season 2021-2024 these are 5vs5 Marners goal totals and shot % with Tavares vs Matthews.

5v5 Marner with Tavares - 1000 mins, 12 goals, 10.9% shot percentage
5v5 Marner with Matthews - 2000 mins, 41 5vs5 goals, 18% shot percentage

Marner's goal-scoring rate with Matthews is about 71% higher than with Tavares.

Hmm...
- Matthews 2x more productive with Domi vs Marner.
- Marner 70% more goals with Matthews vs Tavares.

Looks like the very big star here is Matthews and he's REALLY boosting his linemates. Whose played the most mins with Matthews over the past 3 years and therefore benefited the most? Mitch Marner.

You'd need to do this for multiple players and not just Marner to get a more accurate view of how much having Matthews on a line would boost a players' shooting percentage.

This also doesn't mean goalies are cheating to Matthews by the way.

Which website do you use? This is interesting information and it'd be fun to play around isolating stats based on linemates for a player.

I'm curious about how much of an effect McDavid has on players mostly, but there are a few other players who I am curious about too.

 

[Antropovsky]

Here's a very shocking statistic. Tyler Bertuzzi 5v5 stats with big 4:

Bertuzzi with Marner: 242 mins 0g 1a 1 point
Bertuzzi with Tavares: 547 mins 5g 8a 13 points
Bertuzzi with Matthews: 322 mins 7g 5a 12 points
Bertuzzi with Nylander: 528 mins 8g 11a 19 points

Marner really boosting linemates!

Thoughts @notbias ?

 

[Hellcat]

I don't care about points, so I'll ignore most of your post since it is nonsense and pointless to the conversation we are having about his shot.

Wouldn't a high shooting % mean a good shot?

How much of it is because of Matthews? You tell me, it's going to be a made-up number anyway.

Yep, 16.5% last year, it's not that Marner has a bad shot, he is always in the low to mid teens Sh %) it's that he rarely shoots, 158 last year. Matty BTW had 369 (18.7%). If Mitch shot the puck as much as Matty , he would have been around 55 to 61 goals. Not sure why people are debating with you, the metrics do not support their argument.

 

[Gabriel426]

That is the point though, if goals scored are the only metric used to measure Marner's value, the same criteria should be used for all players. We all know there is more to McDavid's game than scoring goals, just like there is more to Marner's game than scoring.

32 goals is more than 26, Marner played 69 games and McDavid scored 32 in 76 games. Marner was on a 31 goal pace and McDavid was on a 34.5 goal pace. From a scoring perspective, 3.5 goals is not a lot.

Is Goals the only reason why people want MM traded?

Also 3.5goals might not be a lot but you have McD who won the Rocket and MM who never even scored 40goals.

Are we really going to go down this path and use McD as the shield for making critique on MM?

Maybe beside a few here who doesn’t seem to give MM credits on his play but most here know MM is a talented player who choke at the most crucial games. If he doesn’t choke in those games, then we won’t even be having this discussion.

AM chokes too but at least he had moments in big games but to me, he sucks in playoffs as he constantly gets outplayed by lesser C.

Willie is the tallest of the hobbits.

All three have not WON anything as a Leafs.

 

[notbias]

Here's a very shocking statistic. Tyler Bertuzzi 5v5 stats with big 4:

Bertuzzi with Marner: 242 mins 0g 1a 1 point
Bertuzzi with Tavares: 547 mins 5g 8a 13 points
Bertuzzi with Matthews: 322 mins 7g 5a 12 points
Bertuzzi with Nylander: 528 mins 8g 11a 19 points

Marner really boosting linemates!

Thoughts @notbias ?

Bertuzzi couldn't finish an open net at the start of the year when he played mostly with Marner.

Marner is getting a ton of points, so they are coming from somewhere, I am sure there are players that look the opposite as above.

Also, this makes Domi look amazing if anything because when it was Marner/Matthews he sucked, but Matthews/Domi, he was good.

 

[Hellcat]

Here's a very shocking statistic. Tyler Bertuzzi 5v5 stats with big 4:

Bertuzzi with Marner: 242 mins 0g 1a 1 point
Bertuzzi with Tavares: 547 mins 5g 8a 13 points
Bertuzzi with Matthews: 322 mins 7g 5a 12 points
Bertuzzi with Nylander: 528 mins 8g 11a 19 points

Marner really boosting linemates!

Thoughts @notbias ?

C'mon now that is disingenuous at best, how many times did Marner give Bert grade A chances and Bert didn't burry them.

Is Goals the only reason why people want MM traded?

Also 3.5goals might not be a lot but you have McD who won the Rocket and MM who never even scored 40goals.

Are we really going to go down this path and use McD as the shield for making critique on MM?

Maybe beside a few here who doesn’t seem to give MM credits on his play but most here know MM is a talented player who choke at the most crucial games. If he doesn’t choke in those games, then we won’t even be having this discussion.

AM chokes too but at least he had moments in big games but to me, he sucks in playoffs as he constantly gets outplayed by lesser C.

Willie is the tallest of the hobbits.

All three have not WON anything as a Leafs.

From what I can gather it's his attitude / douchie face and his goal scoring prowess or lack of in Games 5,6,7. It's just one big illogical word salad TBH, no one has effectively or logically explain why Mitch.

 

[mikeyz]

I think once he sees what’s expected of him and how Chief deploys him he’ll be asking for a trade……..

I really hope you’re right.