Player Discussion Mitch Marner

[Gabriel426]

Honestly, MM struggles bc the Leafs can’t sweep the other teams or get swept bc it those two are the cases, his playoffs stats would win him a Conn Symthe even if the Leafs lose in the first round.
As MM will no longer have those Game 5-7 playoffs stats.

Pretty sure his camp will use this argument to get him the Max Contract.

 

[Antropovsky]

What winger wouldn’t prefer to play with McDavid over Matthews? You see Hymans numbers and it’s no contest

After Marner was injured vs Boston.. Domi took his spot on Matthews line. These were Domis points all even strength while with Matthews:

17 gp 2g 13a 15 points

These have to be among the best even strength point per game rate in the entire league.

...now an argument can definitely be made that noone would care about playing with Marner. Who has Marner ever stat boosted? Matthews was nearly 2x more productive with him off his line than on his line this year.

 

[Gary Nylund]

After Marner was injured vs Boston.. Domi took his spot on Matthews line. These were Domis points all even strength while with Matthews:

17 gp 2g 13a 15 points

These have to be among the best even strength point per game rate in the entire league.

...now an argument can definitely be made that noone would care about playing with Marner. Who has Marner ever stat boosted? Matthews was nearly 2x more productive with him off his line than on his line this year.

Marner has boosted his linemates stats in the past, but unfortunately, "the past" are the key words there. In more recent times, it seems pretty clear that he benefits a lot more from playing with Matthews than the other way around and the fact that Domi took his place and was actually an improvement doesn't look good on Marner at all. His fanboys love to point out that he kills penalties and plays on the PP and they love to call him the "engine of the team" but when we get to the playoffs, the PK isn't great, the PP is pretty much hopeless and the team always loses so maybe we'd be better off with replacing this failing engine with a different one.

 

[conFABulator]

Stats never offend me, nor should they offend you. You're twisting yourself into a pretzel with this games played don't matter nonsense, I hope you don't hurt yourself.


By your logic perhaps. But it would seem that the word "logic" doesn't mean what you think it means.


Down is one thing, falling off a cliff is another. It's not even just the point totals, it's the way he becomes a non-factor. I don't think I'll even forget the way he played game 3 against Florida, he looked like a nervous kid who's in waaaaaaaaaay over his head playing in his first professional game. For one of the highest paid players in the world, that's simply unacceptable.

But forget the stats for a moment, are you happy with the way he played for us in our two most recent playoff series?


You're comparing Marner to the guy who just won the Conn Smythe trophy? You think they gave the Conn Smythe to a guy that disappeared? Are you high?


Sure if he took a discount, his reputation will improve (at least temporarily). I don't care about that though, the question is can he stop disappearing a few games into the playoffs? I just don't see it happening, not here anyway. Maybe it's the pressure of playing in his hometown that just happens to be the hockey capital of the world that's too much for him and he can get over the hump somewhere else, anything's possible I guess. It's so hard to see it happening here though, he's already several years into his prime and his playoff performances are trending downward.

I don't disagree with most of this, as I said I wanted to move him out in a deal where we got assets and/or assets and cap space. That didn't happen. I don't want him to walk for nothing, so I think an extension is the next best thing as long as it comes at a discount.

 

[Antropovsky]

Marner has boosted his linemates stats in the past, but unfortunately, "the past" are the key words there. In more recent times, it seems pretty clear that he benefits a lot more from playing with Matthews than the other way around and the fact that Domi took his place and was actually an improvement doesn't look good on Marner at all. His fanboys love to point out that he kills penalties and plays on the PP and they love to call him the "engine of the team" but when we get to the playoffs, the PK isn't great, the PP is pretty much hopeless and the team always loses so maybe we'd be better off with replacing this failing engine with a different one.

Who has he "boosted". He's always been with elite players. Elite players who are just as productive or more productive with average linemates. Some of these players have proven to be more productive without him.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nylander has outscored Marner in one playoff.

They tied 3 times.

Marner outscored Nylander 4 times.

2/3 of the most recent years Marner produced more, they tied this year.

Nylander is not struggling anywhere close to how Marner is.

Your first four paragraphs don't dispute anything in my post, and the last one agrees with it.

I'm not sure that was your intent, but thanks.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't disagree with most of this, as I said I wanted to move him out in a deal where we got assets and/or assets and cap space. That didn't happen. I don't want him to walk for nothing, so I think an extension is the next best thing as long as it comes at a discount.

And I still feel that there is zero chance of Marner taking less than Nylander, in fact based on his history he'll probably insist on more.

Tre had his chance to move him when he took over, some people were saying that no, he just took over so he couldn't trade him, he had to first see what he had in Marner or whatever. Never made any sense to me, he should have been more than aware of what Marner is and now the NMC's kicked in so we're just screwed.

 

[supermann_98]

Amazing people like yourself believing your ranting is a public service

Amazing people like yourself don't see the irony of posts such as this

 

[Gary Nylund]

Who has he "boosted". He's always been with elite players. Elite players who are just as productive or more productive with average linemates. Some of these players have proven to be more productive without him.

I'm sure his fanboys will throw thick stacks of stats at you but whatever, I don't really care one way or the other. I don't need stats to tell me what I already know because I've watched almost every game he's ever played for us - he looked like a pretty good player his first couple of years here but he's been trending downward for a while now. Not regular season mind you, he's still able to play when there's no pressure but playoffs is another story.

 

[Antropovsky]

I'm sure his fanboys will throw thick stacks of stats at you but whatever, I don't really care one way or the other. I don't need stats to tell me what I already know because I've watched almost every game he's ever played for us - he looked like a pretty good player his first couple of years here but he's been trending downward for a while now. Not regular season mind you, he's still able to play when there's no pressure but playoffs is another story.

Kadri, JVR, Tavares, Hyman, Matthews... yup certainly players that could've have done it without Marner. Might be hard pressed to find any NHL player whose had it better than Marner. Junior was Tkatchuk and Dvorak.

Meanwhile, Matthews has produced with Bertuzzi, Domi, Marleau, Kapanen, Johnsson. Those players enjoyed surges in their production while Matthews stats didn't skip a beat and in fact they were in cases much better than with Marner.

That's an example of a player boosting linemates.

Tavares had a history of it for the Islanders too.

Marner FINALLY wasn't playing with elite players this postseason and produced a measly 1 g and 3 points and 8 even strength shots in 7 games. Some of those mins of course occasionally wtith Tavarss or Matthews. One of those assists a basic won faceoff that he tapped back to McCabe (who scored thanks to Bertuzzi's screen).

 

[Antropovsky]

Mitch Marner average 4.81 shots/60 5v5 these past playoffs. Here is the list of Leaf players who averaged less:

liljegren, McCabe, Lyubushkin, Reaves, Benoit, Gregor, Edmundson, Brodie, Marner.

 

[myleafs]

Thanks. Thanks for explaining whiny in a way I can understand and probably even agree with.

As for getting better without him; he is a 100-point guy and that gets us to the playoffs in a tough division and conference and maybe just maybe he figures it out in the playoffs, or maybe if we get him for 8 x $10M we have a bargain of a player that is 60th highest paid in the league and still getting a point per game, or maybe we move him for something of value.

Letting him walk at the end of this only works for us if we can take his $10M and spend it on a player of equal or higher value as a free agent. Do we see these guys as FA's next year? Draisatl isn't leaving Edmonton and he is getting $13M+.

Now if Mitch wants $12M+ next year, then I do let him walk for a bunch of reasons.

Only 10m x 8 for a player who will maybe figure it out in the playoffs. No biggie. Its a bargain! ......

 

[myleafs]

I think your response and reaction to this is the point I am making. If Mitch gave a hometown discount, and $10M for eight years is that, I think people might feel differently about him. He took us for too much money last time and that stings us still. If he shows that sort of commitment and sacrifice it could change the narrative and he has the power to do that. That or score 30 points in the next playoff

Take less money or score 30 pts in the playoffs to change the narrative....hmmm,... let me think.

 

[myleafs]

I don't disagree with most of this, as I said I wanted to move him out in a deal where we got assets and/or assets and cap space. That didn't happen. I don't want him to walk for nothing, so I think an extension is the next best thing as long as it comes at a discount.

I just cant make the leap from....my preference is to move him or have him sign an extension.... it does not compute in my brain.

 

[I am Canadian]

Not sure why we are so obsessed with getting a player back for Marner.

Imagine we traded him for picks and signed Tanev, Skeji and Pesce.

These three pieces would cost 16.5M, just 5.5M more than Mitch this season and ~3-4M more than a re-signed Mitch.

Imahine this core

Skeji - Pesce
Rielly - Tanev
Benoit - McCabe

This DCore, or an equivalent one would make the Leafs drastically better than what Marner has to offer.

 

[Puckstuff]

Honestly, MM struggles bc the Leafs can’t sweep the other teams or get swept bc it those two are the cases, his playoffs stats would win him a Conn Symthe even if the Leafs lose in the first round.
As MM will no longer have those Game 5-7 playoffs stats.

Pretty sure his camp will use this argument to get him the Max Contract.

Marner is a better offensive playoff performer then anyone on Toronto and anyone on Florida when you zoom out. The numbers check out.

Toronto

1. Marner 57 GP - 50 points - 71.9 PPG/82
2. Matthews 55 GP - 48 points - 71.5 PPG/82
3. Nylander 54 GP - 43 points - 65.2 PPG/82
4. Tavares 38 GP - 24 points - 51.7 PPG/8

Florida:

1. Tkachuck 71 GP - 61 points - 70.4 PPG/82
2. Barkov - 71 GP - 59 points - 68.1 PPG/82
3. Verghaghe 69 GP - 55 points - 65.3 PPG/82
4. Reinhart - 55 GP - 33 points - 49.2 PPG/82

One big post season can change the entire story line of a players career, i.e Reinhart this season.


The very clear outlier on the Leafs is Tavares, who is underperforming and on a big cap hit. When the Leafs get rid of Tavares or readjust his contract, the leafs 46 million on 4 forwards drops to around 40 million on 4 forwards.


Florida has 38 million on their best 4 players, so when the Leafs get Tavares off the books our number will drop dramatically and be more in line with the the best team in the NHL. Also our big 4 forwards are better then Florida's beyond 2025 IMO, so it's ok if ours are paid a little bit more.

Getting Tavares off the books or on a new contract is going to be massive for this franchise.

 

[ZEBROA]

If the resign him he will not take a hometown discount. It will not happen. His discount will be 13,5 for 8 years instead of 14,5. He will probably ask for at least 2mill more then Nylander.
If we can find better help in the playoffs in any way with those 12-14mill. I would take that gamble. We might not be better with the return of 14mill, but less vulnerable.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Marner has little trade value at this point. A trade is possible but unlikely as there’s too many moving parts. However just clearing his contract off the books will allow them to sign a significant free agent forward next year.

 

[conFABulator]

Only 10m x 8 for a player who will maybe figure it out in the playoffs. No biggie. Its a bargain! ......

...or, you could not parse my post to remove the context and reply to my full point.

I don't think teams that let a $10M player walk away for nothing are maximizing the asset. What I said was, sign him and hope he figures it out and then he's a bargain. It not, try to trade him next year and his value would be up because he has term and is not a pending UFA.

Take less money or score 30 pts in the playoffs to change the narrative....hmmm,... let me think.

Are you done thinking? Those are the only two ways I can think of Mitch changing the narrative, what else have you come up with?

 

[Superstar]

If the resign him he will not take a hometown discount. It will not happen. His discount will be 13,5 for 8 years instead of 14,5. He will probably ask for at least 2mill more then Nylander.
If we can find better help in the playoffs in any way with those 12-14mill. I would take that gamble. We might not be better with the return of 14mill, but less vulnerable.

Marner is massively overpaid with his current contract...he should count his blessings if he gets the same contract as Nylander...look at what Reinhart just signed for.

 

[conFABulator]

And I still feel that there is zero chance of Marner taking less than Nylander, in fact based on his history he'll probably insist on more.

Tre had his chance to move him when he took over, some people were saying that no, he just took over so he couldn't trade him, he had to first see what he had in Marner or whatever. Never made any sense to me, he should have been more than aware of what Marner is and now the NMC's kicked in so we're just screwed.

If Mitch needs to get paid more than Willy then we have a problem and you might be right that he won't take less. To me that's reason to let him walk.

I felt Tre came in too late to make that happen. He came in too late to have a proper off-season last year. The decision not to move Marner would be on Shanny.

 

[ZEBROA]

Marner is massively overpaid with his current contract...he should count his blessings if he gets the same contract as Nylander...look at what Reinhart just signed for.

He might be overpaid but so is Nylander and Marner will not take less then Nylander, Not in Toronto that is. Elsewere he will probably have to take less.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

Marner is a better offensive playoff performer then anyone on Toronto and anyone on Florida when you zoom out. The numbers check out.

Toronto

1. Marner 57 GP - 50 points - 71.9 PPG/82
2. Matthews 55 GP - 48 points - 71.5 PPG/82
3. Nylander 54 GP - 43 points - 65.2 PPG/82
4. Tavares 38 GP - 24 points - 51.7 PPG/8

Florida:

1. Tkachuck 71 GP - 61 points - 70.4 PPG/82
2. Barkov - 71 GP - 59 points - 68.1 PPG/82
3. Verghaghe 69 GP - 55 points - 65.3 PPG/82
4. Reinhart - 55 GP - 33 points - 49.2 PPG/82

One big post season can change the entire story line of a players career, i.e Reinhart this season.


The very clear outlier on the Leafs is Tavares, who is underperforming and on a big cap hit. When the Leafs get rid of Tavares or readjust his contract, the leafs 46 million on 4 forwards drops to around 40 million on 4 forwards.


Florida has 38 million on their best 4 players, so when the Leafs get Tavares off the books our number will drop dramatically and be more in line with the the best team in the NHL. Also our big 4 forwards are better then Florida's beyond 2025 IMO, so it's ok if ours are paid a little bit more.

Getting Tavares off the books or on a new contract is going to be massive for this franchise.

Let's assume the Leafs remove Tavares and sign Marner for 11.5M (We both know he wants way more).

Their top four players will now be earning a minimum of 43.75M. This is not even close to being in line with the Panthers. It is still significantly higher than every other group in the NHL.

On top of this, they have to give Knies a raise, replace Tavares, and Woll's extension will kick in. The money is gone right there. This is the birth of a proper treadmill team if they don't remove both Tavares and Marner.

 

[Superstar]

He might be overpaid but so is Nylander and Marner will not take less then Nylander, Not in Toronto that is. Elsewere he will probably have to take less.

But Nylander wasn't making $11 million per year for 6 years on his last contract...Dubas drove hard with Nylander, but bent for Marner...Marner could scram and go somewhere else, he's all about the money, the worse out of the 3...I don't think there's a team in the NHL that will pay him his asks, nor should they...leeching points off of elite players in the regular season and goes missing in the playoffs...bent the Leafs last negotiations and will try to bend the Leafs again...Reinhart signed for $69 million dollars, and Marner thinks he's worth $100 million over the same term?

 

[conFABulator]

I just cant make the leap from....my preference is to move him or have him sign an extension.... it does not compute in my brain.

Ok, let me try to clarify. I wanted him moved in a deal that made us better. That would likely be a piece of two, a prospect or pick and cap space. I never saw us getting equal value back in just a player or two.

This didn't happen and I don't think it can happen now because the cap space can't be used on anything because all the top FAs are gone, so I am now in favour of extending him if we can do it a reasonable number. $10M to $10.9M but not at a raise is my definition of a reasonable number. We then either have a bargain of he becomes a playoff performer or we have an asset to trade that does not become a UFA after one year, a UFA that could be asking for $13M. I think it increases his value considerably.

What I don't want is him walking as a UFA next year where we get nothing but cap space. That's not terrible, but it is my least favourite option