Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Mediocrity is happiness to the mediocre because mediocrity knows nothing higher than itself.

Marner will never win a Stanley Cup. He doesn't have the competitiveness to play for a legitimate contender. He's too mentally soft and fragile.

It's way too easy to take him off his game when it matters most.

Especially in the playoffs when the rough stuff starts. He's a pacifist weakling who won't stand up for himself or his teammates. Yet he is supposed to be a leader on this team.

Only the softest franchise in the league would have him wearing an "A".

They won't go anywhere with this gutless coward leading the charge. His snotty rich kid face is begging for another knuckle sandwich. And that's exactly what he's gonna get in the postseason again while leading this team to another first round exit.

Condolences to the poor suckers who bought season tickets only to cheer him on to mediocrity.

 

[mclaren55]

There is no universal standard for this. It doesn't actually matter.

Centers are overrepresented among highly paid forwards because centers are overrepresented among top forwards in the league. The best kids are more often put at center through their growth and development. But they are not top players because they are centers, you don't need to be a center to be a top player, and they are not getting inflated compensation relative to performance because of their position.

Wingers can be just as impactful as centers. Impact is impact, and impact from a center is not worth any more than equivalent impact from a winger. A winger that is able to hit that impact level being rarer doesn't make the impact they bring any less valuable. That's faulty logic.

You're just getting into semantics now Dekes, sorry man.

"The best kids are put at centre" - Doesn't this oppose your argument? Placing the top kids at centre position is done because centre is a more important position than winger, with more responsibilities and effect on the game.

Centres do get inflated compensation vs. wingers. When I had my AI (ChatGPT Pro Deep Research) crunch the numbers of wingers and centres in the NHL while controlling for games played; compared to the overall forward group, wingers had 92% compensation rate, while centres were at 109%. This is factual information, and you may say it's biased due to the skew of overall population of wingers to centres. In that case, I took the top 100 wingers and top 100 centres as a % of cap and the figures are;

Position	Simple Average	Weighted Average (by contract length)
Wingers (Top 100)	~9%	~10%
Centers (Top 100)	~10%	~11%

So even with using the top 100 of each category, Centres typically take up 10% more cap space relative to wingers, further proving my initial point.

Sure, top wingers can impact the game almost as much as top centres. Marner is one of the best wingers in the game, but that doesn't justify paying him as much as top centres. The data backs that up.

I think "fair value" based on Marners current impact of play, relative salary to centres, and rising cap would be 12.88M. I bet he gets signed around there, probably 12.93M to be honest.

 

[ACC1224]

Just saw the snippet from Overdrive where Siegel said Marner is more likely to leave than stay.

This is a brilliant negotiating tactic by the Marner team. If the message is “I want to stay” then the fans will say “why are you asking for so much money”. Now if he stays, fans will just be happy he chose Toronto and not care about the money.

He is flipping the narrative in real time.

These reporters just give their opinions to get attention. He doesn’t know what the player is thinking

 

[Mess]

As the Leafs strive for top of the Division and home ice in the playoffs.

Marner scored at home verses Florida the other day, it was his first goal at home since Jan 20th vs TB and only 3 of his home goal scored in 2025.

 

[Nineteen67]

Mediocrity is happiness to the mediocre because mediocrity knows nothing higher than itself.

Marner will never win a Stanley Cup. He doesn't have the competitiveness to play for a legitimate contender. He's too mentally soft and fragile.

It's way too easy to take him off his game when it matters most.

Especially in the playoffs when the rough stuff starts. He's a pacifist weakling who won't stand up for himself or his teammates. Yet he is supposed to be a leader on this team.

Only the softest franchise in the league would have him wearing an "A".

They won't go anywhere with this gutless coward leading the charge. His snotty rich kid face is begging for another knuckle sandwich. And that's exactly what he's gonna get in the postseason again while leading this team to another first round exit.

Condolences to the poor suckers who bought season tickets only to cheer him on to mediocrity.

He’s a great piece if the linemates fight for space and are not shut down. If they are checked he hasn’t shown the ability to overcome it and take charge. Matthews has been fairly easy to remove from the game, Knies on the other hand, may not take crap. We’ll see what happens.

 

[ACC1224]

As the Leafs strive for top of the Division and home ice in the playoffs.

Marner scored at home verses Florida the other day, it was his first goal at home since Jan 20th vs TB and only 3 of his home goal scored in 2025.

Yep, he and the Team are playing really well right now. You hate to see it.

 

[Nineteen67]

Just saw the snippet from Overdrive where Siegel said Marner is more likely to leave than stay.

This is a brilliant negotiating tactic by the Marner team. If the message is “I want to stay” then the fans will say “why are you asking for so much money”. Now if he stays, fans will just be happy he chose Toronto and not care about the money.

He is flipping the narrative in real time.

If he really wants to stay it has to cost him a few million on the contract. If wants a NMC and bonus money up front, that will cost a few million more. If he can get all that elsewhere for more money, good riddance.

ETA: If he thinks he’s worth 14 million on the open market add the Toronto tax = 15.5
Subtract 2 million for wanting to stay, 1 million for the NMC and 1 million for the up front bonus.
11.5 AAV.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yep, he and the Team are playing really well right now. You hate to see it.

What a strange thing to say.

Sometimes it seems you just think to yourself, now what's the dumbest thing I can possibly say, and then you post it.

 

[kaddy]

I’m a die hard flames fan. I’d keep Tavares at cheap over him.

 

[francis246]

I’m a die hard flames fan. I’d keep Tavares at cheap over him.

Tavares is about to score 40 in a contract year. He will not be “cheap”

 

[Sypher04]

If he really wants to stay it has to cost him a few million on the contract. If wants a NMC and bonus money up front, that will cost a few million more. If he can get all that elsewhere for more money, good riddance.

ETA: If he thinks he’s worth 14 million on the open market add the Toronto tax = 15.5
Subtract 2 million for wanting to stay, 1 million for the NMC and 1 million for the up front bonus.
11.5 AAV.

So you expect Marner to take less cap than Nylander? Thats never going to happen.

12M is the absolute floor for a Marner extension. Probably closer to 12.5M

 

[arso40]

So you expect Marner to take less cap than Nylander? Thats never going to happen.

12M is the absolute floor for a Marner extension. Probably closer to 12.5M

I agree it won’t happen but it would be nice

 

[Legion34]

If he wants to go

There is no universal standard for this. It doesn't actually matter.

Centers are overrepresented among highly paid forwards because centers are overrepresented among top forwards in the league. The best kids are more often put at center through their growth and development. But they are not top players because they are centers, you don't need to be a center to be a top player, and they are not getting inflated compensation relative to performance because of their position.

Wingers can be just as impactful as centers. Impact is impact, and impact from a center is not worth any more than equivalent impact from a winger. A winger that is able to hit that impact level being rarer doesn't make the impact they bring any less valuable. That's faulty logic.

1.) There is no “universally accepted proportion of goals/assists” to be a goal scorer vs playmaker because these are descriptive terms that have NO bearing on contracts and are not quantifiable. You have tried to explain away marners lack of goal production with this ridiculous NHL 2K terminology. “Oh he’s a playmaker”. It doesn’t mean anything. He scores about 30
Goals and 100 pts a year. 30 goals is really low for his current and future salary

2.) comparing “proportion of goals to assists” means nothing. It’s how many goals and how many assists. Nic Robertson isn’t more of a “goal scorer than Matthews because he has a higher ratio of goals to assists this year. It’s silly.

Marner is going to be the lowest goal scoring player in a long time to get a top contract. All of the players on the list were and are much better goal scorers by pace and actual raw totals. It may be worth it to keep him long term at too high of a number again. He may want out.

Marner doesn’t score enough to get Matthews type money. He was overpaid last time. He will be over paid this time. Might still be our best move

 

[Hellcat]

Can you undicate any other way that im not a fan, other than not being a big fan of Marner?

If not then clearly you are of the opinion that these are the Toronto Maple Marners. Which makes you an obsessed Marner groupie and im a Leaf Fan.

First look up the phrase binary though process.

 

[Hellcat]

@Leaf Fans , @Metroid , @francis246 , @Hellcat
@Smif

Got a few more doozies for you! I know you guys can spot a winner, because i apparently dont know ehat playing with heart and determination looks like and certainly can't spot a winner.

Few more plays to discuss:

Didn't Marner fans admit Marner also was very bad in game 3 vs Florida?

What about this widely talked about play vs Montreal where Marner let's Montreal get the puck because he's afraid to get hit? Tons of heart right... what an animal doing whatever it takes to win!



What about YEARS later vs Boston where he was caught doing it again but only even worse? Didn't Marner fans try to say it was smart lol that he dodge the hit and let Boston get the puck and easily clear the zone. Yep! The heart and determination ! Anyone whose played a sport would know that was what winners do!


So two replays of Marner literally gifting loose pucks to opponents. Hmm yea, who cares right, we didn't need those possessions! We can get the next ones!

Seeing a pattern yet? All these years of replays of Marner mailing it in and Marner fans are saying IM the one who isnt a leaf fan?

A player having a dogshit game on occasion? SAY ISN'T SO!!!!! If your standard is no player can have a bad game ever in the playoffs, there will be zero players on your roster.

McDavid, scores a hattrick every playoff game and is a +7, every single playoff game. Vas.. shutout... every single game and gets 100 shots on goal , every single game.... Kuch... you guessed it 3 goals 3 assist and 3 fights... the triple Gordie Howe.... every single game...

Dude your passion A+, your obsession A+, connecting the dots into a congruent purposeful point ... F.

 

[Antropovsky]

That's also not true. Marner had almost double the goal production at 5v5, and better everything in every other game state. And the only thing Domi actually led in in that one season was an unsustainable fluke, which is why you isolated it.

Because that's what you do. You take Marner and another player you've carefully selected. You remove all PP performance. You remove all PK performance. You remove all defensive performance. You remove certain point types at 5v5. You isolate a sample where the favoured player has an unsustainable production rate in that one particular point type in that one particular game state, and remove everything else. You ignore all context behind the production, and pretend that production rates in heavily sheltered depth roles are equatable to production rates in top roles against the best players and in the most important defensive situations. And then based on that tiny, unrepresentative piece of information without context or understanding, you make broad claims about those players; always with the goal to diminish Marner.

You will never look at the whole picture, because you know you're wrong. Somebody who actually valued 5v5 P/60 would love Marner, who has the 4th best 5v5 P/60 in the league over the past half decade. The 5v5 assists/60 you loved referencing above? Marner is #1 in the league in that same timeframe.

Nobody thinks Marner is equivalent to Gretzky, and you're the only one who keeps bringing up Gretzky. Lesser players having a better rate of one particular type of production in one game state over a season is not all that unusual. I don't see you arguing that Monahan is better than Kucherov... that Protas is better than Draisaitl... that Dubois is better than McDavid... that Barbashev is better than Mackinnon... Etc.

Lol.... why do goals matter? Marner fans for years have been telling us he's a playmaker who shouldn't be judged on goals. So why are you now bringing up goals when trying to win a discussion regarding Marner vs a different player?

Who said anything about Marner being "equivalent"? Do you think its appropriate to use Marners name in the same sentence as Gretzky at all?

Marner makes 11 million and has played on a first line with 11.5 - 12.25 Matthews for 4 years.

Yes I think it's appropriate to compare his contributions as a first liner over the years, paid in the top 8, to other like paid first liners.

Seems like your the one cherry picking Monahan.

 

[Antropovsky]

A player having a dogshit game on occasion? SAY ISN'T SO!!!!! If your standard is no player can have a bad game ever in the playoffs, there will be zero players on your roster.

McDavid, scores a hattrick every playoff game and is a +7, every single playoff game. Vas.. shutout... every single game and gets 100 shots on goal , every single game.... Kuch... you guessed it 3 goals 3 assist and 3 fights... the triple Gordie Howe.... every single game...

Dude your passion A+, your obsession A+, connecting the dots into a congruent purposeful point ... F.

On occasion? This teams problem has they haven't been able to get past the first round! These aren't deep runs where he's had the occasional dogshi% game. These are critical must win games lol.

And, this is just the tip of the iceberg, I can show you 7 videos of playofg mistakes he made/giveaways that led directly to the puck being in the Leafs net.

And this is without even bringing up his incredible lack of production.

So let's summarize 13% of the cap and his playoffs:

Numerous videos of evidence of the following from Marner:
1) dog$&#^ efforts
2) demoralizing giveaways/mistakes causing goals against.
3) bad offensive production
4) doesnt go into scrums

I added scrums... lesser detail but still absolutely pathetic for an assistant captain. Name another leader that just stands and watches his teammates in scrums.

 

[tuckerintensity]

These reporters just give their opinions to get attention. He doesn’t know what the player is thinking

I read the article and nothing he said came across like "I'm out." It sounded like a guy not afraid of proving himself in a contract year, but never once like he wants to leave.

These guys have been writing the same article from the no comment from him and the team all year and pretending it means something different now.

 

[Confucius]

As the Leafs strive for top of the Division and home ice in the playoffs.

Marner scored at home verses Florida the other day, it was his first goal at home since Jan 20th vs TB and only 3 of his home goal scored in 2025.

Pay the man. lol!

 

[The Shadow]

He’s a key guy for the regular season. He puts up points and is a game breaker. If he leaves they will definitely lose more games next year

In a tight defensive structure without game breakers like him the wins will be less

Who will replace his 100 points ?

He may not be a playoff guy yet but he’s a big reason why they get there

 

[Menzinger]

Jesperi Kotkaniemi got $6.1 mil 4 years ago... GM's are not always the most rationale people.

A Leafs player in the cap era has never signed an offer sheet. A rare example from another team 4 years ago shouldn't make us worry.

 

[ashs]

Just lock him up long term so we can put the damn contract talks behind us. This is why I hate short term deals.

 

[Menzinger]

Just lock him up long term so we can put the damn contract talks behind us. This is why I hate short term deals.

By most accounts the team is trying. But it takes two to tango

 

[Gary Nylund]

A deal starting with 12 should be just fine. He can go shopping if he wants closer to 14

As long as he plays well in the playoffs, I agree. If he has another of those 3 points in 7 games playoffs then I'd prefer letting him walk to signing him for 12+.

 

[Legion34]

As long as he plays well in the playoffs, I agree. If he has another of those 3 points in 7 games playoffs then I'd prefer letting him walk to signing him for 12+.

That would be 14 x 7.

I never understand when they keep saying open market but then do 8 years.

I bet he wants 13.26.
It’s too much but I would guess they would want to do it. You don’t lose a top player for nothing over 750k a year