Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[DarkKnight]

Fantastic third, both ends of the ice. Nice to see him step up when it matters.

 

[ashs]

Hope we can sign marner and Tavares the team is starting to fill out.

 

[Leaf Fans]

.... so you are saying he read the data wrong?

He said the data said, Marner is overrated as a playmaker, isn't worth Matthews pay, Tavares was the line driver in 2019, Tavares statistically boosted his linemates (ie Anders Lee and Matt Moulson had huge drops in points without Tavares), Marner produces on the PP - overrated 5v5, Matthews, Tavares, Nylander generate more scoring chances for their linemates.

So... we have 5 years of data now since.

In hindsight what does he look wrong about?
Marner is overrated as a playmaker
- He isnt setting up many chances


isn't worth Matthews pay,
- yes definitely he's nowhere near Matthews value (Matthews is a big center, and has a full trophy case - Marner no major awards)

Tavares was the line driver in 2019, Tavares statistically boosted his linemates (ie Anders Lee and Matt Moulson had huge drops in points without Tavares)
- Matthews in many seasons has been productive without Marner. Tavares in many seasons has been more productive without Marner.

Marner produces on the PP - overrated 5v5
- 5v5 point producing machine Matthews is propping his 5v5 stats. Matthews was #1 in goal th3 the 3 seasons before Marner was on his line, even with Johnsson, Kapanen and Marleau.

Matthews, Tavares, Nylander generate more scoring chances for their linemates.
Looks accurate this year. Marners 5v5 goal and primary assist totals are higher than Marners. Secondary assists is the only thing keeping Marner up.


In hindsight... Berkshire looks about dead on in his assessment in 2019.

He doesn't look dead on now.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Only two players have scored more goals in the league since Tavares entered the league. Ovechkin and Stamkos.

Matthews - led the league in 5v5 goals his first 3 seasons, Marner wasnt on his line.
Tavares - was a top 3 goal scorer in the NHL since entering the league. He played 9 of those years with Islanders.
Nylander - 3 consecutive 40 goal seasons. Hardly ever plays with Marner.

OMFG Marner gets so many assists, and leads the Leafs in assists he must be the best player ever!

Whose gonna benefit the most from playing with these incredible goal scorers? Someone has to get assists on these guys goals.

He is not the best player ever. He is not even the best player on the team. He is an excellent player though.

 

[DarkKnight]

There's truly something terribly wrong with some people. I mean, the entire league, and Four Nations this year... it's so comical.


And the best part, a million "buts" will be offered in rebuttal. Enjoy the player, he's a special talent, a word never used to describe his stalkers. .

 

[thewave]

I am glad for the first time in his life possibly, he elevated his game under pressure without flipping the puck out of the rink. He did it against an AHL squad, but that's ok. He has restored some hope for now leading into the playoffs where I hope he leads us to at least a conference final.

I liked how he was diving to get pucks out and playing desperate. He does not do that often. As a line, MM AM was crappy most the game

 

[Smif]

Huge third by Mitch tonight. The 1st line came up clutch for us after a mediocre first two periods.

 

[thewave]

Huge third by Mitch tonight. The 1st line came up clutch for us after a mediocre first two periods.

Honestly, if they didn't turn that around they would have been ripped apart in here and media.

 

[ITM]

Nice to see him in traffic.

Speaking of...More of this engaged Domi please.

Good game.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I am glad for the first time in his life possibly, he elevated his game under pressure without flipping the puck out of the rink. He did it against an AHL squad, but that's ok. He has restored some hope for now leading into the playoffs where I hope he leads us to at least a conference final.

I liked how he was diving to get pucks out and playing desperate. He does not do that often. As a line, MM AM was crappy most the game

He was great tonight, If he can sustain that level of play throughout the playoffs instead of fading after game 86 as has been his habit, that would be huge. I remember saying a few years ago that one way this team could hope to be better in the playoffs is if Marner plays to his potential for a change. Imagine if the Marner we saw tonight showed up for the playoffs instead of the Marner who sucked against Boston and Florida last 2 playoffs, how much better would the team be?

Beauty feed to Knies for that goal, not as impressive as the way Knies finished it but still, beauty. Two highly skilled players going high level things, hope to see a lot more of that in the playoffs!

I don't know who the 3 stars were tonight as I never watch that stuff but Marner would be my easy choice for #2 (Stolarz #1 obviously).

 

[Gallagbi]

There's truly something terribly wrong with some people. I mean, the entire league, and Four Nations this year... it's so comical.

View attachment 1005183
And the best part, a million "buts" will be offered in rebuttal. Enjoy the player, he's a special talent, a word never used to describe his stalkers. .

I know this is about Marner and all, but holy shit are Kuch and MacKinnon ever having a year

 

[TopCheeseShotta]

Dude is unreal... Top 5 in the league with broken Matty and a growing 22 year old. Great 5v5 assist, and a stellar shot on a beauty feed from our broken captain. Good effort on his azz a few times tonite too. This version of MM is definitely who we need in the Post Season.

 

[Antropovsky]

This is what Keefe and Marner meant when saying teams are focused on Matthews and Marner needs to take advantage of it. Matthews has the puck and nobody cares about Marner gliding alone through the slot with his stick raised, Matthews RETRIEVES his own rebound and PASSES the puck to Marner whose still standing in slot alone with stick raised.

Or maybe it's just a defensive breakdown but one thing is for certain Matthews doesn't get a play like this from Marner because Marner isn't gonna skate into that battle for his own loose puck and make that pass to Matthews.

Yes, we've graduated from stills to gifs:

Matthews ability to make a play and without hesitation and attack a new play is as good as anyone in the league. Same thing Matthews did on the game 5 or game 6 gwg vs Tampa years ago. He backchecked, physically knocked the Tampa player off the puck, then without any hesitation pivoted and went directly on the attack and created a 2 vs 1 with Marner (who of course was standing at center ice waiting for a pass after Bunting and Matthews won their board battle ....seeing a pattern here?).


This play catches the tail end of Matthews hit, but watch how he transitions from the hit directly to offense mode...incredible and elite.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Can't we classify people who score 40+goals as goal scorers?

No. It would be about how your points are distributed, not whether or not you hit some arbitrary mark. Even by your measure, 8 of the 15 forwards on your list hadn't hit 40 goals. 5 more had only done it once.

I would say Matthews, McDavid, Crosby, Panarin, JT, Nylander, Pasta, MacKinnon, Seguin, Benn were all considered "goal scorers" when signed vs Playmakers.

I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion. From your list, looking at goals as a percentage of points at the time they signed their current contracts...

Marner is at 30%.
McDavid was at 31%.
Huberdeau was at 32%.
Panarin was at 36%.
Crosby was at 37%.
Mackinnon was at 37%.
Barkov was at 39%.
Pettersson was at 41%.
Nylander was at 41%.
Eichel was at 42%.
Benn was at 43%.
Tavares was at 44%.
Seguin was at 45%.
Pastrnak was at 48%.
Matthews was at 55%.

The list has players that were primarily playmakers, goal scorers, and everything in between.

 

[Antropovsky]

Dude is unreal... Top 5 in the league with broken Matty and a growing 22 year old. Great 5v5 assist, and a stellar shot on a beauty feed from our broken captain. Good effort on his azz a few times tonite too. This version of MM is definitely who we need in the Post Season.

Yep... commentators on his 5v5 assist from his own goal line "The leafs have been trying that stretch pass all night and it finally paid off"...

Marner king of the set plays.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Yep... commentators on his 5v5 assist from his own goal line "The leafs have been trying that stretch pass all night and it finally paid off"...

Marner king of the set plays.

There are a few people who can execute the set play as well as Marner, but Marner also has creativity to go along with his excellence of execution.

 

[Leaf Fans]

This is what Keefe and Marner meant when saying teams are focused on Matthews and Marner needs to take advantage of it. Matthews has the puck and nobody cares about Marner gliding alone through the slot with his stick raised, Matthews RETRIEVES his own rebound and PASSES the puck to Marner whose still standing in slot alone with stick raised.

Or maybe it's just a defensive breakdown but one thing is for certain Matthews doesn't get a play like this from Marner because Marner isn't gonna skate into that battle for his own loose puck and make that pass to Matthews.

Yes, we've graduated from stills to gifs:

View attachment 1005213

Matthews ability to make a play and without hesitation and attack a new play is as good as anyone in the league. Same thing Matthews did on the game 5 or game 6 gwg vs Tampa years ago. He backchecked, physically knocked the Tampa player off the puck, then without any hesitation pivoted and went directly on the attack and created a 2 vs 1 with Marner (who of course was standing at center ice waiting for a pass after Bunting and Matthews won their board battle ....seeing a pattern here?).


This play catches the tail end of Matthews hit, but watch how he transitions from the hit directly to offense mode...incredible and elite.

Matthews is a great player in his own right. Great players often find themselves open at the right time and place. Teams don't ignore them.

 

[Antropovsky]

Three seasons of data of Marner with Matthews vs Marner with Tavares.

Do with the info as you like:

Years: 2021-2022, 2022-2023, 2023-2024

MARNER approx:
Sample size 1000 mins with Tavares (the accurate numbers were in chart attached)
Sample size 2000 mins with Matthews
(the accurate numbers were in chart attached)
Marner with Matthews 5v5 stats in 1400 mins (approx full season)
In 1,400 minutes:

• Marner would score approximately 16.1 goals with Tavares.
• Marner would score approximately 28.7 goals with Matthews.
• That’s a 78.26% increase in goals when playing with Matthews compared to Tavares.

Marner points Matthews and Tavares in 1400 mins (approx full season)
In 1,400 minutes:

• score approximately 53.9 points with Tavares.
• score approximately 81.67 points with Matthews.
• That’s a 51.52% increase in points when playing with Matthews compared to Tavares

Meanwhile, Matthews stats increase moderately when Marner is off his line but overall he's largely unaffected by having Marner off his line.

With Marner (per 60 mins)​

• Goals: 1.64
• Primary Assists: 0.90
• Secondary Assists: 0.45
• Total Assists: 1.35
• Points: 2.99

In 1400 minutes (projected):

• Goals: 38.3
• Primary Assists: 21.0
• Secondary Assists: 10.5
• Total Assists: 31.5
• Points: 69.7

Without Marner (per 60 mins)​

• Goals: 1.80
• Primary Assists: 0.84
• Secondary Assists: 0.38
• Total Assists: 1.22
• Points: 3.03

In 1400 minutes (projected):

• Goals: 42.0
• Primary Assists: 19.6
• Secondary Assists: 8.9
• Total Assists: 28.5
• Points: 70.7

 

[TopCheeseShotta]

Yep... commentators on his 5v5 assist from his own goal line "The leafs have been trying that stretch pass all night and it finally paid off"...

Marner king of the set plays.

Ya.. I don't know if that was a set play.. seemed like a bit of perfectly timed freestyle to me.. but whatever it was, it was kinda geniusly executed, it kinda iced the game after a late call against, and he also buried one too. Just another night at the office for this f'in guy this year. Need to see it in the playoffs, cuz he's top 5 and cookin' all year..!!!

 

[nsleaf]

You know MM had a good night, when the wave of dumb takes appear.

 

[Smif]

You know MM had a good night, when the wave of dumb takes appear.

It's been dumb take after dumb take this week.

Some people can't resist to get this conversation off of a great performance tonight and back on to the same painful analytics. Their life depends on it.

 

[Seras]

Marner was great tonight, that pass alone was something very few players could do and his goal was huge for the team.

 

[Aashir]

You know MM had a good night, when the wave of dumb takes appear.

It just feels like there’s two schools of extreme thought, using last game as an analogy:

Those who can’t look past marners first 40 minutes. Conclude he was trash and did nothing

Those who can’t acknowledge he was mediocre for the first 40 minutes. Conclude he was perfect and can’t be criticized without being a “hater”.

Then there’s antro who thinks Marner wasn’t even that good in the 3rd.

The people who believe he had a mediocre start and excellent finish are the ones I like talking to about Marner. They don’t blindly defend or hate regardless of situation. That’s how it should be for fans, irrespective of player.

 

[thewave]

It's been dumb take after dumb take this week.

Some people can't resist to get this conversation off of a great performance tonight and back on to the same painful analytics. Their life depends on it.

He played a good period. Against the full FL team we would have been roasted after the second period and that's a fact jack.

I give him credit for that third though. That's the level he is going to have to show in all elimination games to beat these FL teams. BTW there is notthing dumb about facts. Facts are facts.

He has been incredibly weak on the puck all year. What he did in the third is the level we need to win from him. Applies to Matthews JT WN as well.

 

[thewave]

Three seasons of data of Marner with Matthews vs Marner with Tavares.

Do with the info as you like:

Years: 2021-2022, 2022-2023, 2023-2024

MARNER approx:
Sample size 1000 mins with Tavares (the accurate numbers were in chart attached)
Sample size 2000 mins with Matthews
(the accurate numbers were in chart attached)
Marner with Matthews 5v5 stats in 1400 mins (approx full season)
In 1,400 minutes:

• Marner would score approximately 16.1 goals with Tavares.
• Marner would score approximately 28.7 goals with Matthews.
• That’s a 78.26% increase in goals when playing with Matthews compared to Tavares.

Marner points Matthews and Tavares in 1400 mins (approx full season)
In 1,400 minutes:

• score approximately 53.9 points with Tavares.
• score approximately 81.67 points with Matthews.
• That’s a 51.52% increase in points when playing with Matthews compared to Tavares

View attachment 1005230

Meanwhile, Matthews stats increase moderately when Marner is off his line but overall he's largely unaffected by having Marner off his line.

With Marner (per 60 mins)​

• Goals: 1.64
• Primary Assists: 0.90
• Secondary Assists: 0.45
• Total Assists: 1.35
• Points: 2.99

In 1400 minutes (projected):

• Goals: 38.3
• Primary Assists: 21.0
• Secondary Assists: 10.5
• Total Assists: 31.5
• Points: 69.7

Without Marner (per 60 mins)​

• Goals: 1.80
• Primary Assists: 0.84
• Secondary Assists: 0.38
• Total Assists: 1.22
• Points: 3.03

In 1400 minutes (projected):

• Goals: 42.0
• Primary Assists: 19.6
• Secondary Assists: 8.9
• Total Assists: 28.5
• Points: 70.7

To my eye, Marner was wrecking the first line until he started playing desperation hockey in the third. After the first two I was thinking this guy can go now. Probably still the case but let's see what he can do or if he can sustain the third period example of play in the PO. Be a miracle.