Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[666]

It seems you still haven't learned how to read. Are you even trying?

Same here. Not a conscious decision on my part, but for quite some time now I often have the game on but am doing other things, I take a look when a goal is scored and maybe watch the last few minutes if that game is close. Last night was one of the few times lately when I watched the whole game

You don't even know how long you haven't been watching the games.

 

[Antropovsky]

Domi is having a rough year, eh?

The only 5v5 stat this season that Marner blows domi out of the water in is secondary assists.

Goals/60, primary assists/60 this season
Marner - 0.68 g/60, 0.96 first assists p/60
Domi - 0.59 g/60, 0.81 first assists p/60

Over 1400 mins:
Marner:
16 goals
22 primary assists

Domi:
14 goals
19 primary assists

Yes very humiliating/rough year for "Domi"

 

[thewave]

The only 5v5 stat this season that Marner blows domi out of the water in is secondary assists.

Goals/60, primary assists/60 this season
Marner - 0.68 g/60, 0.96 first assists p/60
Domi - 0.59 g/60, 0.81 first assists p/60

Over 1400 mins:
Marner:
16 goals
22 primary assists

Domi:
14 goals
19 primary assists

Yes very humiliating/rough year for "Domi"

How does anyone argue this stuff? I get the point you are highlighting but it seems some people are missing it.

What happens if you put WN in there as well

 

[Smif]

How does anyone argue this stuff? I get the point you are highlighting but it seems some people are missing it.

What happens if you put WN in there as well

Because he never factors in QOC. Marner plays against the best of the best, Domi plays against 3rd pairing Dmen. Marner plays against Barkov and Ekblad, Domi plays against Evan Rodrigues, and Nate Schmidt.

Ffs, how do you not argue this stuff. Antro's stats aren't about what he posts, it's about what he doesn't post, he's like a politician. He only posts what he wants you to read but leaves out 70% of the actual facts.

 

[Antropovsky]

You don't even know how long you haven't been watching the games.

Explain what someone would see differently whether they watched a player 75% of the time over 8 years vs 100% of the time.

Excited to hear you explanation of the relevance, considering studies indate this:

Research in sports psychology suggests that while athletes can improve skills, conditioning, and even mental resilience, their core tendencies—such as competitiveness, risk-taking, leadership style, and decision-making under pressure—are often deeply ingrained. Here are some key findings:

 

[Antropovsky]

Because he never factors in QOC. Marner plays against the best of the best, Domi plays against 3rd pairing Dmen. Marner plays against Barkov and Ekblad, Domi plays against Evan Rodrigues, and Nate Schmidt.

Ffs, how do you not argue this stuff. Antro's stats aren't about what he posts, it's about what he doesn't post, he's like a politician. He only posts what he wants you to read but leaves out 70% of the actual facts.

Lol this makes no sense... Domi's numbers are way better with Matthews than Marners are. Additionally tulskys research indicates quality of linemates far exceeds quality of competition in order of importance.

This is the problem with a select few members of fan group.. they don't know anything about analytics.

They keep talking about QOC but ignore that research indicates quality of exceeds is far more important than QOC. So Domi actually is at a disadvantage.

Also.. they complained that I use 5v5 stats, and not even strength stats. Yet the analytics community everywhere state 5v5 is preferred.

Then the ones that know absolutely nothing keep repeating "haha you don't watch every second of every game...".

 

[Sundinisagod]

Marner has been great this season. I think most would agree this has been a career season for him. What was his second best season? Personally I liked his 3rd season more than most that followed it.

 

[francis246]

Explain is this more humiliating for Domi than it is Marner?:
Last two seasons mins:
Domi 1778 mins
Marner 2066 mins

(Is 1800-2000 mins also too low a sample?)

Last two seasons per/60
 Domi:
Points per 60: 2.23
Primary Assists per 60: 1.15
Secondary Assists per 60: 0.54
Goals per 60: 0.54

Marner:
Points per 60: 2.53
Primary Assists per 60: 1.05
Secondary Assists per 60: 0.67
Goals per 60: 0.81

First line play around 1400 5v5 mins a year.

Domi (in 1400 mins):​

• 53 points
• 27 primary assists
• 13 secondary assists
• 13 goals

Marner (in 1400 mins):​

• 60 points
• 25 primary assists
• 16 secondary assists
• 19 goals

Wow Marner averages 7 more 5v5 points while playing with stars like Matthews, Tavares and a great goal scorer like Knies, and occasionally on stacked lines with Tavares, Matthews and Nylander while Domi plays with 3rd liners.

Also, when Domi did play with star Matthews he blows Marners numbers with Marner out of the water.

I don’t know why you hyper focus on 5 v 5 as if other parts of the game aren’t equally important. Sure a majority of the game is played 5 v 5, but that’s what sets superstars/elite players apart from regular joes. When your team gets an advantage whether that’s via PP or open ice through 4 v 4, or 3v3 or on a Man advantage late in the game 6 on 5, can your superstar make the other team pay?

I get your point, but acting like other parts of the game aren’t relevant is disingenuous and is not good faith argument when comparing players, straight up. And you know that people will eat up those numbers cause they aren’t smart enough to recognize that you are intentionally isolating and removing all other situations in hockey as if they don’t exist/matter/factor into team and individual success.

 

[francis246]

How does anyone argue this stuff? I get the point you are highlighting but it seems some people are missing it.

What happens if you put WN in there as well

It’s a misleading argument to isolate one part of the game and ignore the impact of special teams and other critical situations. Evaluating who’s better has to account for a player’s full contribution. It’s frustrating that people ignore that and push a narrative that doesn’t hold up when you consider the full picture.

*edit, decided to be mature

 

[notbias]

How does anyone argue this stuff? I get the point you are highlighting but it seems some people are missing it.

What happens if you put WN in there as well

Because it is stupid.

Removing secondary assists for someone who controls play like Marner is dumb, it isn't like he is a D making a first pass.

The only reason he removes A2 is because it helps his cherry picked stats.

Marner is way too far ahead of Domi P/60, that is why he can't use A2.

Tavares is leading our team in this stat, I assume because he is leading the team in this stat he is our best player? Antropovsky always brings this up as such an important stat, so I can only assume that is what he is getting at.

 

[ToneDog]

How many contenders coveted 115 point Gudreau who iirc has also scored over 40 goals? He got 1.25m less than what rfa marner got 6 years ago. Love to see mitch go to the market to see what he can get and from who? Maybe he can bend Dubas over again. Shame Pens are not a contender.

 

[notbias]

How many contenders coveted 115 point Gudreau who iirc has also scored over 40 goals? He got 1.25m less than what marner got 6 years ago. Love to see mitch go to the market to see what he can get and from who?

Completely different players, I suggest you watch some old tape of Gaudreau since you clearly haven't seen him play before.

 

[francis246]

Because he never factors in QOC. Marner plays against the best of the best, Domi plays against 3rd pairing Dmen. Marner plays against Barkov and Ekblad, Domi plays against Evan Rodrigues, and Nate Schmidt.

Ffs, how do you not argue this stuff. Antro's stats aren't about what he posts, it's about what he doesn't post, he's like a politician. He only posts what he wants you to read but leaves out 70% of the actual facts.

Thank you finally someone who actually understands why Antro pisses me off like no tomorrow. Antro is not a stupid person by any means, he’s smart. What pisses me off is his intentional use of tactic where he uses small sample sizes, leaves out context, intentionally over relies on 5 v 5 as the “preferred” while continently acting like special teams doesn’t exist or play a significant role in hockey, just to gain support. As if the analytic community would not agree that just because 5 v 5 is the preferred, it doesn’t mean any other situation in hockey is irrelevant or shouldn’t be used to evaluate players. Anyone who honestly believes that needs their head checked.

If he actually used his brain to be unbiased, I think a lot of people would agree with him tbh. It’s pretty clear at this point, his thing against Marner is personal, it’s gone beyond hockey talk lol. I wonder if he knows him personally.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You don't even know how long you haven't been watching the games.

I'll just copy paste:
The guy who "doesn't care what I think" keeps responding to me like an obsessed teenager.

I've watched almost every game this year. Last month or two I've rarely watched the entire game but that doesn't mean I "don't watch". I've explained this to you about 16 times already, how do you still not get this?

Basic English, good luck!

 

[Gary Nylund]

It would be 19.1 right?

I haven't done the math but if that's not accurate, I'm pretty sure it's at least close.

 

[Smif]

Lol this makes no sense... Domi's numbers are way better with Matthews than Marners are. Additionally tulskys research indicates quality of linemates far exceeds quality of competition in order of importance.

This is the problem with a select few members of fan group.. they don't know anything about analytics.

They keep talking about QOC but ignore that research indicates quality of exceeds is far more important than QOC. So Domi actually is at a disadvantage.

Also.. they complained that I use 5v5 stats, and not even strength stats. Yet the analytics community everywhere state 5v5 is preferred.

Then the ones that know absolutely nothing keep repeating "haha you don't watch every second of every game...".

Factor in QOC, QOL, zone starts and special teams contribution in one equation and I'll start listening. Until then you're just factoring in 25% of what needs to be looked at to properly evaluate a player.

Or don't, and keep getting the praise like "how does anyone argue this?" from some posters when you keep spewing the same 5v5 only stats over and over and over.

Oh, and also start watching the games, that's kinda important too.

 

[Smif]

Thank you finally someone who actually understands why Antro pisses me off like no tomorrow. Antro is not a stupid person by any means, he’s smart. What pisses me off is his intentional use of tactic where he uses small sample sizes, leaves out context, intentionally over relies on 5 v 5 as the “preferred” while continently acting like special teams doesn’t exist or play a significant role in hockey, just to gain support. As if the analytic community would not agree that just because 5 v 5 is the preferred, it doesn’t mean any other situation in hockey is irrelevant or shouldn’t be used to evaluate players. Anyone who honestly believes that needs their head checked.

If he actually used his brain to be unbiased, I think a lot of people would agree with him tbh. It’s pretty clear at this point, his thing against Marner is personal, it’s gone beyond hockey talk lol. I wonder if he knows him personally.

The completely biased perspective will always skew the actual facts. It makes someone completely untrustworthy and unreliable with true facts. I agree, he's intelligent but, unfortunately, he won't ever be respected.

 

[Gary Nylund]

If he actually used his brain to be unbiased, I think a lot of people would agree with him tbh. It’s pretty clear at this point, his thing against Marner is personal, it’s gone beyond hockey talk lol. I wonder if he knows him personally.

Can anybody say that they really, truly know the enigmatic Money Magic Mitch Marner?

 

[Antropovsky]

Marner has been great this season. I think most would agree this has been a career season for him. What was his second best season? Personally I liked his 3rd season more than most that followed it.

Statistically it's one of his worst 5v5 seasons. What is most concerning is he has been trending down for 3 years. But why not pay him... it makes logical sense that he will suddenly get exponentially better in the playoffs. Right? Even better...if he doesn't live up to his new even bigger and longer contract, we get to deal with his drama with the media and social media for 8 more years and of course he will also refuse to waive too..."because of his charity".

 

[francis246]

Statistically it's one of his worst 5v5 seasons. What is most concerning is he has been trending down for 3 years. But why not... it makes logical sense that he will suddenly get exponentially better in the playoffs.


View attachment 1003550

Context check ladies and gentlemen.

last season didn’t he miss a large chunk of the year with injury?

This year, Matthews scoring has gone down (injury based), wouldn’t that affect his linemates 5v5 p/60 number?

I believe the Matthews/Marner line also went on a crazy dry spell last season in late October/november. And somehow Matthews still scored 69 which is incredible in itself. But that stretch they had would also have affected the 5v5 p/60 numbers. I’m pretty sure Marner and Matthews got split up for a little bit after this dry spell too, it was the Bertuzzi - Tavares - Marner line and Bertuzzi was honestly a black hole on offense lol.

Context always matters. Marner’s production is naturally going to dip when he misses time or when his primary linemate (Matthews) isn’t scoring at his usual pace due to injury. Ignoring that and just pointing to a downward trend without considering those factors paints an incomplete picture.

 

[namttebih]

Would there be a number in the middle both parties would agree on?

What if it WAS $17M/1 year. It basically leaves 10.5 to resign JT and Knies.

We already have 7 D signed through next year.

 

[namttebih]

It would be 19.1 right?

I believe max cap hit would be over 17M, hard to see this happening. Points for creativity though.

See above. Messed up multi quote

 

[Antropovsky]

Context check ladies and gentlemen.

last season didn’t he miss a large chunk of the year with injury?

This year, Matthews scoring has gone down (injury based), wouldn’t that affect his linemates p/60 number?

I believe the Matthews/Marner line also went on a crazy dry spell last season in late October/november. And somehow Matthews still scored 69 which is incredible in itself. But that stretch they had would also have affected the p/60 numbers.

Context always matters. Marner’s production is naturally going to dip when he misses time or when his primary linemate (Matthews) isn’t scoring at his usual pace due to injury. Ignoring that and just pointing to a downward trend without considering those factors paints an incomplete picture.

Yes let's explain the context to the ladies and gentlemen.

Marner was injured near the end of the season. After he came back from injury, there was only 7 games remaining. In those 7 games he produced 2.5 p/60 5v5 which was a higher points per 60 than prior to the injury when he was completely healthy.

Can't make this stuff up. You guys need to do your homework better.

 

[francis246]

Yes let's explain the context to the ladies and gentlemen.

Marner was injured near the end of the season. After he came back from injury, there was only 7 games remaining. In those 7 games he produced 2.5 p/60 5v5 which was a higher points per 60 than prior to the injury when he was completely healthy.

Can't make this stuff up. You guys need to do your homework better.

LOL this is exactly what I mean by cherry picking stats. You’re really using a 7-game stretch after returning from injury as the ‘gotcha’?

While ignoring the factors that would have caused a dip in the p/60? All because of a 7 game stretch where intensity dips before the playoffs and teams are resting guys? Huh?

On top of that we know Marner returned right in the heat of the Matthews chase for 69. They got put back together to end the season before the playoffs, that’s why Marner’s p/60 5 v 5 was elevated in those last 7 games.

*just a note for those watching*. - I almost guarantee he will now try to spin the conversation to say, that Marner’s numbers are always inflated by inferior competition. This is the classic tactic of shifting the argument away from the original topic that I’m always referring to. So let’s keep the focus where it belongs, on the full context of the situation. Not “you need to do your homework better”

 

[Smif]

Statistically it's one of his worst 5v5 seasons. What is most concerning is he has been trending down for 3 years. But why not pay him... it makes logical sense that he will suddenly get exponentially better in the playoffs. Right? Even better...if he doesn't live up to his new even bigger and longer contract, we get to deal with his drama with the media and social media for 8 more years and of course he will also refuse to waive too..."because of his charity".


View attachment 1003550

Team scoring in those years:
2022 - 312 GF
2023 - 278 GF
2024 - 298 GF
2025 - 267 GF (pacing over 82 games)

We're moving towards a more.defensive team which makes sense as to why his production has dipped.

More importantly we should look at how many points Marner contributes on:

Marner's percentage of points:
2022 - 31%
2023 - 36%
2024 - 29% (missed 13 games)
2025 - 38%

Marner has a point on 38% of the teams goals this season. Trending upwards since 2021-2022. Seems sorta important to our success.