Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[francis246]

Just two posters who know nothing about analytics and dont post any evidence to their claims but demand evidence to others claims.

Recall how Marner was being compared tp Gretzky? Well I pointed out that Marner has very few primary assists on Matthews goals (only 23%) meanwhile Matthews has contributed on 29% of primary assists on Marner goals. And they then latched onto secondary assists lol.

Not to mention they said i was being disingenuous by posting 5v5 stats and not even strength stats. So I postes a quote from an NHL analytics website where they said it is agreed in the analytics community that 5v5 stats are best used because of stat padding yhat occurs in even strength points (empty net points).

Literally me training two posters who know nothing about advanced stats.

You never mentioned very few primary assists. I literally quoted your post and highlighted your claim word for word. Again, changing your position and claim for what? The third time now?

 

[thewave]

Just two posters who know nothing about analytics and dont post any evidence to their claims but demand evidence to others claims.

Recall how Marner was being compared tp Gretzky? Well I pointed out that Marner has very few primary assists on Matthews goals (only 23%) meanwhile Matthews has contributed on 29% of primary assists on Marner goals. And they then latched onto secondary assists lol.

Not to mention they said i was being disingenuous by posting 5v5 stats and not even strength stats. So I postes a quote from an NHL analytics website where they said it is agreed in the analytics community that 5v5 stats are best used because of stat padding yhat occurs in even strength points (empty net points).

Literally me training two posters who know nothing about advanced stats.

So as I suspected all along from the draft year. They had me starting to doubt my eyes for a little bit this brought me back down to earth.

I would still overpay him for a few years if he takes a limited movement clause. More specifically 1 year NMC and 2 or 3 years after that on a limited.

 

[Antropovsky]

You never mentioned very few primary assists. I literally quoted your post and highlighted your claim word for word. Again, changing your position and claim for what? The third time now?

You've ignored my request for a 3rd time.

You keep spouting off about my stats but your not providing any evidence when asked to present it. You keep ignoring the post.

Show your work on your 41% stat you keep referring to.

Indicate your opinion on my posted evidence of Matthews being significantly more productive without Marner. And Marner being significantly more prosuctive with Matthews.

 

[Antropovsky]

So as I suspected all along from the draft year. They had me starting to doubt my eyes for a little bit this brought me back down to earth.

I would still overpay him for a few years if he takes a limited movement clause. More specifically 1 year NMC and 2 or 3 years after that on a limited.

Id give him a contract with a limited no trade (all dependant on the price) but he would never do that. Leafs already attempted to trade him.

 

[thewave]

Go back and read my posts from a few pages ago. He changes his point whenever he gets called out. This whole thing started because he very clearly said, Marner didn’t contribute much if at all to Matthews goals during the 2023/24 season. He said that because he didn’t actually think anyone would fact check him on that. We ran the numbers, that was in fact a lie. Marner contributed significantly to Matthews goals. It was stupid for him to even make that claim in the first place. Marner plays predominately with Matthews.

Once I called him out on that, he goes, “no I meant that Matthews is better away from Marner”. That was never what any of us questioned and he started posting charts and stats about that in order to distract everyone from the fact that his original claim was just a bold face lie.

It’s not about Marner having to be stapled to Matthews. It’s about the fact that he lied and misrepresented facts and got caught out doing it. Then has the audacity to say that we are making stuff up. He knows what he’s doing very clearly.

TBH I am not a big stats guy. I am however an eye test guy and I have never liked Marners play style. This goes back to JRs where I didn't want us to draft him. I was great with the trade back to get Provorov or Werenski and Barzal.

I try and simplify it down to this. If he were a free agent from another team, what would you offer him?

I would legit offer between 9 and 9.5m and not be upset if someone else got him at 10/11m.

Nylander I would legit offer 10m and that's because he scores goals. Maybe even 10.5m because he is turning into a perennial 40 goal guy from a second line

 

[Antropovsky]

TBH I am not a big stats guy. I am however an eye test guy and I have never liked Marners play style. This goes back to JRs where I didn't want us to draft him. I was great with the trade back to get Provorov or Werenski and Barzal.

I try and simplify it down to this. If he were a free agent from another team, what would you offer him?

I would legit offer between 9 and 9.5m and not be upset if someone else got him at 10/11m.

Nylander I would legit offer 10m and that's because he scores goals. Maybe even 10.5m because he is turning into a perennial 40 goal guy from a second line

Werenski is the more valuable player for sure.

 

[francis246]

TBH I am not a big stats guy. I am however an eye test guy and I have never liked Marners play style. This goes back to JRs where I didn't want us to draft him. I was great with the trade back to get Provorov or Werenski and Barzal.

I try and simplify it down to this. If he were a free agent from another team, what would you offer him?

I would legit offer between 9 and 9.5m and not be upset if someone else got him at 10/11m.

Nylander I would legit offer 10m and that's because he scores goals. Maybe even 10.5m because he is turning into a perennial 40 goal guy from a second line

I get your point and honestly I’m not debating that. I think Marner is slightly overpaid, I’m not against moving on from Marner. I just don’t have a ton of faith in our management group to pick the right guys in UFA. But I’m not opposed to retooling the team.

I think people can agree on that without misrepresenting stats. Please answer this truthfully and just think about it. Antro’s initial post mentions nothing about just primary assists. He even included secondary assists in his initial post to support his claim. Now he’s saying he was just talking about primary assists, a few posts before that, he claimed he was just talking about Matthews being better away from Marner. Is that not moving goal posts and now misrepresenting facts? It’s what he does, he overloads the thread with stats that he knows people will find interesting after someone challenges something, so it’s a complete deflection and derail the conversation. I know we’ve been on opposite sides, so I don’t expect you to agree. So it’s whatever.

 

[Antropovsky]

I get your point and honestly I’m not debating that. I think Marner is slightly overpaid, I’m not against moving on from Marner. I just don’t have a ton of faith in our management group to pick the right guys in UFA. But I’m not opposed to retooling the team.

I think people can agree on that without misrepresenting stats. Please answer this truthfully and just think about it. Antro’s initial post mentions nothing about just primary assists. He even included secondary assists in his initial post to support his claim. Now he’s saying he was just talking about primary assists, a few posts before that, he claimed he was just talking about Matthews being better away from Marner. Is that not moving goal posts and now misrepresenting facts? It’s what he does, he overloads the thread with stats that he knows people will find interesting after someone challenges something, so it’s a complete deflection and derail the conversation. I know we’ve been on opposite sides, so I don’t expect you

All of my posts have been about Marner’s stats. You and other Marner supporters keep moving the goalposts no one else is. I don’t need to; the numbers consistently show the same thing

Marner is far less productive without Matthews, while Matthews is significantly more productive without Marner.

You keep making demands, yet you've presented just one stat supposedly supporting Marner. Despite being asked four times to provide evidence for its relevance and the underlying data, you continue to avoid the question and have yet to respond.

And yet, you’re judging others who actually provide data? Laughable. Take a hike.

 

[Stephen]

TBH I am not a big stats guy. I am however an eye test guy and I have never liked Marners play style. This goes back to JRs where I didn't want us to draft him. I was great with the trade back to get Provorov or Werenski and Barzal.

I try and simplify it down to this. If he were a free agent from another team, what would you offer him?

I would legit offer between 9 and 9.5m and not be upset if someone else got him at 10/11m.

Nylander I would legit offer 10m and that's because he scores goals. Maybe even 10.5m because he is turning into a perennial 40 goal guy from a second line

I get what you mean stylistically and I've spent some time over the years trying to break down what I don't love about Marner's game on a stylistic level. Strictly on style point has something to do with precision. I look at the way Patrick Kane, Nikita Kucherov, to a lesser extent Clayton Keller and Jack Hughes, they're all skilled possession forwards, puck transporters, etc. But their puck control tends to be a lot tighter and more deliberate. I'm a lot more comfortable with the way that looks aesthetically.

 

[Da Mash]

If he was allowed to trade Marner he had about a three week window. I’m sure the GM kicked himself after last spring‘s performance.

I think Tre is kicking himself with a lot of moves he made and didn’t make. He is sure kicking himself on signing Reaves,Kampf,Domi, and now trading for Laughton who looks like a AHL player and we still have no centre.

 

[Antropovsky]

5v5 This year ignoring secondary assists:
Tavares: 1.87 p/60
Nylander: 1.81 p/60
Matthews: 1.69 p/60
Knies: 1.64 p/60
Marner: 1.62 p/60

Damn impressive for 34 year old Tavares.

 

[Antropovsky]

If he was allowed to trade Marner he had about a three week window. I’m sure the GM kicked himself after last spring‘s performance.

He wasnt... before Tre was even hired Shanahan called up the core and said don't worry you are not going anywhere. Shanahan seems to have rocks for brains (unless ownership told him to do it). Management seemed to be very afraid of hurting the cores feelings. There was a rumor that it's the reason Bell and Rogers split. They couldn't agree on the direction to go with he core. I think someone with Bell didn't want them moved.

 

[LeafEgo]

5v5 This year ignoring secondary assists:
Tavares: 1.87 p/60
Nylander: 1.81 p/60
Matthews: 1.69 p/60
Knies: 1.64 p/60
Marner: 1.62 p/60

Damn impressive for 34 year old Tavares.

Knies looking like a steal at 9M.

 

[Gabriel426]

The distinct difference is those players were signed to contracts before this year, before it was announced that the cap is going to skyrocket over the next 4 years.

Since we are not trading Marner for value, this proposed replacement will come through UFA? Any UFA you sign this summer will have a significantly higher cap hit to value than those two players, due to the previously mentioned rising cap hit.

To get Necas and Nelson, the Avs had to pay a steep price. Are you OK with that steep price?

Necas was acquired by trading a 100 point player, which 100 point player do you suggest we trade to replace Mitch?

Nelson was acquired for a dman that would be a 3rd line pair, so lets say Benoit, a prospect that projects to contribute like Cowan, a 1st and a 3rd both conditional.

Can we replace Mitch, yep, but it will hurt or we can keep Mitch and keep building the team with the expanding cap.

So again which players specifically can we target to make this team better AND what is the price to acquire those players?

To me, if they fail in playoffs, it is just quite stupid to run it back again.

It might not be UFA signings but could be via trade too. Maybe the price is steep but if the team ends up winning the Cup, who cares.

Would a Chrychun and Ehlers/Boser be a bad trade off for MM?

MM is not Wayne or Mario and honestly from past playoffs, I really don’t think MM or any of the Core 5 had done anything to warrant they are a group that can win and must bring back at all cost.

I just don’t understand what makes MM so important to Leafs playoffs success that he MUST be brought back bc Leafs with MM won ONE series in Eight Playoffs.

To me Jumbo Joe was a much better playmaker, passer and overall player than MM and yet the closest he ever came was ONE Cup Finals toward the end of his career.

 

[Antropovsky]

Yet another set Matthews play where Marner got a primary point this season.

What set play was it early this year where Matthews told Knies and Marner he was gonna win it forward and pass to them in front of the net? And it worked to a T.

 

[arso40]

Yet another set Matthews play where Marner got a primary point this season.

What set play was it early this year where Matthews told Knies and Marner he was gonna win it forward and pass to them in front of the net? And it worked to a T.

I mean everybody can act like they forget Hes that good Hes still top 10 player in the league and when he’s not injured head to head nobody wants that smoke everyone looks at the points that’s not his game he has the most rounded game at the center position so much so that everyone thinks marner is the best defensive forward in the league

 

[hullsy47]

Isn’t he?

Lol ask team.canada selection committee

 

[hullsy47]

Steve "Pretty Boy" Simmons said Marner is the 2nd or 3rd best Leaf? Um... This season, who is better?

Hes right .

 

[ACC1224]

Lol ask team.canada selection committee

That’s your criteria

 

[hullsy47]

That’s your criteria

Touche well i like marner , but just dont know why hes not signed

 

[thewave]

Hes right .

Maybe 4th or 5th best Leaf.

Matthews
Stolarz
Nylander
Tanev
Marner

Take any one of those players out and we are not where we are at all. Matthews is playing well believe it or not. Just not Scoring but his work at C has been huge.

 

[ACC1224]

Touche well i like marner , but just dont know why hes not signed

That's a puzzle for sure but pretty sure it has nothing to do with Crosby.

Team will do everything they can to sign him that we know.

 

[666]

The 2023 data being thrown around here is based on only 269 minutes of Matthews playing with Nylander. At the typical 13-14 minutes of 5v5 time for stars that equates to at most about 20 games. THAT IS A SMALL SAMPLE. Even the Marner data of 720 minutes is a bit lower than we would like.

But if you want to use that data then
Matthews with Marner GF=43 GA=28 GF%=60%
Matthews with Nylander GF=17 Ga=15 GF%=53%

Stop being tricked by small samples.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Knies looking like a steal at 9M.

That is madness

 

[ACC1224]

That is madness

This is the right thread for it.