Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[Stephen]

He knows he will be ripped to shreds if he signs for $13+m now and then shits the bed in the playoffs. He wants to be loved by the fan base and that comes with playoff success or taking a big discount IMO, which he is not willing to do. Let him take his soft perimeter game elsewhere.

Marner's dilemma is he wants all the money, to be loved and to play in Toronto. But reality dictates he can probably have 2/3 at best.

 

[notbias]

He knows he will be ripped to shreds if he signs for $13+m now and then shits the bed in the playoffs. He wants to be loved by the fan base and that comes with playoff success or taking a big discount IMO, which he is not willing to do. Let him take his soft perimeter game elsewhere.

I don't think this board is a reflection of a normal fan... most of the people here just come to complain, a normal fan likes to discuss hockey and enjoys the talent that Marner has.

 

[arso40]

I don't think this board is a reflection of a normal fan... most of the people here just come to complain, a normal fan likes to discuss hockey and enjoys the talent that Marner has.

Most enjoy when they can but your right there’s a lot of complaining and it’s understandable why our stars disappoint too often they disappear too often they haven’t changed much yet we expect different results show me the changes and then we can expect changes in the results our leaders marner and matthews look like finish products havent seen any sort of improvements in their games nylander I’ve seen improvements but are those improvements the difference In us winning something ? Riellys gonna worst so any of the improvements have been negated and I’d argue since rielly is usually on the ice for
40 -45% of a playoff game I would argue that’s more of an impact than nylander who at best is playing a third of the game

 

[Hellcat]

You make a really good point in terms of ufa price hike anyway I can agree with you there can you agree that Knies and matthews make 2/3rd of a great line ? Do you agree that a solid 2 way player on the right side would make that line still a great line? If not why? My theory is toffoli boeser that type of player prototype power forward right winger would make that line a bitch to play against not saying marner isnt great but on that line in my opinion Hes a luxury we don’t need him on that line and antro graph kinda displays that nylanders on your second line with bobby mac and probably jt at half his cap hit ideally we need to build a third line we can get rid of the players that don’t fit and acquire players we actually need get rid of rielly and I think we’re actually a better team getting rid of just rielly in my opinion makes us a better team but how much better are we with just rielly gone I’m not sure it’s enough marner unfortunately due to his contract expiring seems to be the odd man out if him and nylanders contract expired at the same time all things being equal nylander would probably be the odd man out credit to dumb ass for getting that extra year and not having the contracts expire the same time that’s about the only smart thing he did with our big three

Agreed

 

[Hellcat]

Not specifically what i said.

Which is why I was asking for clarification.

 

[Hellcat]

No way of knowing for sure but I doubt he is happy with all the heat/blame he gets for the team's playoff short comings. Somebody closer to Marner (maybe Kypreos??) would know better.

Maybe I'm a cold f-er but if I was a pro athlete I would care less if the fans liked me, one season your a hero , the next season your the devil. fans are fickle, which is why their opinion should not matter.

 

[arso40]

Maybe I'm a cold f-er but if I was a pro athlete I would care less if the fans liked me, one season your a hero , the next season your the devil. fans are fickle, which is why their opinion should not matter.

I agree I wouldn’t care much I don’t think that should be at the top of any players lists of importance what I do know is if you win you will be revered period win and everything else falls into place

 

[ORRFForever]

Steve "Pretty Boy" Simmons said Marner is the 2nd or 3rd best Leaf? Um... This season, who is better?

 

[arso40]

Steve "Pretty Boy" Simmons said Marner is the 2nd or 3rd best Leaf? Um... This season, who is better?

When did he say that ? Matthew’s nylander tanev we can argue nylander so maybe he meant Matthews tanev

 

[GoonieFace]

No, we just need to use more data. Three full years is pretty good. The Domi stuff is just nonsense. The real comparison is with Nylander and also how they produce with our other top center JT. I have posted the data many times. The results are:
Matthews is great with everyone.
Marner is great with everyone.
Nylander only produces with Matthews and is terrible with JT.
No other right winger has even close to enough time with Matthews to draw any conclusions.

Nylander only produces with Matthews? Is this a fact?

 

[arso40]

Nylander only produces with Matthews? Is this a fact?

No it’s not for obvious reason he barely plays with him what he probably meant he doesn’t with jt that’s an old narrative that used to be true last couple years not soo much

 

[Antropovsky]

This is also quite surprising. I would have bet a lot that Marner has a positive impact but if this is accurate, it's ... surprising.

Yes, so Marner played approx 50% with Matthews and Tavares in 2023 and 2024.

-With Matthews he had a 3.12 p/60
-With Tavares he had a 2.4 p/60

Without Matthews he was around 48th in the League in p/60. Surrounded by a pile of players not making anything near 11 million.

2.24 p/60 group:

 

[arso40]

Yes, so Marner played approx 50% with Matthews and Tavares in 2023 and 2024.

-With Matthews he had a 3.12 p/60
-With Tavares he had a 2.4 p/60

Without Matthews he was around 48th in the League in p/60. Surrounded by a pile of players not making anything near 11 million.

2.24 p/60 group:
View attachment 998164

What about Willy since it’s only fair they are the comparables

 

[Antropovsky]

What about Willy since it’s only fair they are the comparables

Here is 2023 Marner and Nylander with and without Matthews. Ill put some more together later. Note Nylanders are with Tavares as center vs Matthews as center which should be the same for Marner.

Nylander stats​

2023​

• With Matthews:
  • Goals per 60: 1.43
  • First Assists per 60: 0.71
  • Second Assists per 60: 0.95
  • Total Points per 60: 3.09
• Without Matthews:
  • Goals per 60: 1.14
  • First Assists per 60: 0.57
  • Second Assists per 60: 0.57
  • Total Points per 60: 2.14

Marner Stats:
2023
With Matthews:
Goals per 60: 0.92
First Assists per 60: 1.33
Second Assists per 60: 0.75
Total Points per 60: 3.00
Without Matthews:
Goals per 60: 0.51
First Assists per 60: 1.77
Second Assists per 60: 0.02
Total Points per 60: 2.30

 

[ToneDog]

I agree I wouldn’t care much I don’t think that should be at the top of any players lists of importance what I do know is if you win you will be revered period win and everything else falls into place

Problem is they have not had playoff success and he has taken the brunt of it, mainly due to his last contract negotiation and the perception he is greedy. Maybe he is tired being approached by toxic fans at a bar in cottage country like one poster noted a week or so ago, Maybe he wants out of the spotlight and wants to go somewhere he won't be recognized or bothered. It is the only explanation I can come up with for not wanting to sign during the season.

 

[thewave]

Here is 2023 Marner and Nylander with and without Matthews. Ill put some more together later. Note Nylanders are with Tavares as center vs Matthews as center which should be the same for Marner.
View attachment 998185

Nylander stats​

2023​

• With Matthews:
  • Goals per 60: 1.43
  • First Assists per 60: 0.71
  • Second Assists per 60: 0.95
  • Total Points per 60: 3.09
• Without Matthews:
  • Goals per 60: 1.14
  • First Assists per 60: 0.57
  • Second Assists per 60: 0.57
  • Total Points per 60: 2.14

Marner Stats:
2023
With Matthews:
Goals per 60: 0.92
First Assists per 60: 1.33
Second Assists per 60: 0.75
Total Points per 60: 3.00
Without Matthews:
Goals per 60: 0.51
First Assists per 60: 1.77
Second Assists per 60: 0.02
Total Points per 60: 2.30

So why are they saying your work is fake news or whatever? Seems pretty straightforward to me

 

[francis246]

So why are they saying your work is fake news or whatever? Seems pretty straightforward to me

Go back and read my posts from a few pages ago. He changes his point whenever he gets called out. This whole thing started because he very clearly said, Marner didn’t contribute much if at all to Matthews goals during the 2023/24 season. He said that because he didn’t actually think anyone would fact check him on that. We ran the numbers, that was in fact a lie. Marner contributed significantly to Matthews goals. It was stupid for him to even make that claim in the first place. Marner plays predominately with Matthews.

Once I called him out on that, he goes, “no I meant that Matthews is better away from Marner”. That was never what any of us questioned and he started posting charts and stats about that in order to distract everyone from the fact that his original claim was just a bold face lie.

It’s not about Marner having to be stapled to Matthews. It’s about the fact that he lied and misrepresented facts and got caught out doing it. Then has the audacity to say that we are making stuff up. He knows what he’s doing very clearly.

 

[Smif]

Here is 2023 Marner and Nylander with and without Matthews. Ill put some more together later. Note Nylanders are with Tavares as center vs Matthews as center which should be the same for Marner.
View attachment 998185

Nylander stats​

2023​

• With Matthews:
  • Goals per 60: 1.43
  • First Assists per 60: 0.71
  • Second Assists per 60: 0.95
  • Total Points per 60: 3.09
• Without Matthews:
  • Goals per 60: 1.14
  • First Assists per 60: 0.57
  • Second Assists per 60: 0.57
  • Total Points per 60: 2.14

Marner Stats:
2023
With Matthews:
Goals per 60: 0.92
First Assists per 60: 1.33
Second Assists per 60: 0.75
Total Points per 60: 3.00
Without Matthews:
Goals per 60: 0.51
First Assists per 60: 1.77
Second Assists per 60: 0.02
Total Points per 60: 2.30

This needs a Matthews column, Matthews with and without both Marner and Nylander.

 

[Smif]

Would love to see a Tavares column with and without Marner and Nylander as well!!

 

[arso40]

Here is 2023 Marner and Nylander with and without Matthews. Ill put some more together later.
View attachment 998185

Nylander stats​

2023​

• With Matthews:
  • Goals per 60: 1.43
  • First Assists per 60: 0.71
  • Second Assists per 60: 0.95
  • Total Points per 60: 3.09
• Without Matthews:
  • Goals per 60: 1.14
  • First Assists per 60: 0.57
  • Second Assists per 60: 0.57
  • Total Points per 60: 2.14

Marner Stats:
2023
With Matthews:
Goals per 60: 0.92
First Assists per 60: 1.33
Second Assists per 60: 0.75
Total Points per 60: 3.00
Without Matthews:
Goals per 60: 0.51
First Assists per 60: 1.77
Second Assists per 60: 0.02
Total Points per 60: 2.30

Makes sense to me

 

[notDatsyuk]

That's a lot of words to address a single point that is just one of many reasons Marner is better...

If you think that is a reason Marner is better, then either you misread it, or you don't understand that this is just one of many reasons why he isn’t better.

 

[Antropovsky]

Go back and read my posts from a few pages ago. He changes his point whenever he gets called out. This whole thing started because he very clearly said, Marner didn’t contribute much if at all to Matthews goals during the 2023/24 season. He said that because he didn’t actually think anyone would fact check him on that. We ran the numbers, that was in fact a lie. Marner contributed significantly to Matthews goals. It was stupid for him to even make that claim in the first place. Marner plays predominately with Matthews.

Once I called him out on that, he goes, “no I meant that Matthews is better away from Marner”. That was never what any of us questioned and he started posting charts and stats about that in order to distract everyone from the fact that his original claim was just a bold face lie.

It’s not about Marner having to be stapled to Matthews. It’s about the fact that he lied and misrepresented facts and got caught out doing it. Then has the audacity to say that we are making stuff up. He knows what he’s doing very clearly.

None of what you're saying is making sense. Provide your work, I’ve asked for this already and IYou refuse because you know it won’t hold up under scrutiny.

Additionally, you haven’t provided any rebuttal to the statistics I’ve presented, such as Matthews being significantly more productive when Marner isn’t on his line.

Instead of engaging in a reasoned discussion, you continue making unfounded assumptions without any evidence to support your claims, which is the opposite of a scientific approach. (meanwhile ive posted many stats)

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." – Carl Sagan

 

[ORRFForever]

When did he say that ? Matthew’s nylander tanev we can argue nylander so maybe he meant Matthews tanev

In today's Simon Says.

 

[Antropovsky]

So why are they saying your work is fake news or whatever? Seems pretty straightforward to me

Just two posters who know nothing about analytics and dont post any evidence to their claims but demand evidence to others claims.

Recall how Marner was being compared tp Gretzky? Well I pointed out that Marner has very few primary assists on Matthews goals (only 23%) meanwhile Matthews has contributed on 29% of primary assists on Marner goals. And they then latched onto secondary assists lol.

Not to mention they said i was being disingenuous by posting 5v5 stats and not even strength stats. So I postes a quote from an NHL analytics website where they said it is agreed in the analytics community that 5v5 stats are best used because of stat padding yhat occurs in even strength points (empty net points).

Literally me training two posters who know nothing about advanced stats.

 

[arso40]

Just two posters who know nothing about analytics and dont post any evidence to their claims but demand evidence to others claims.

Recall how Marner was being compared tp Gretzky? Well I pointed out that Marner has very few primary assists on Matthews goals (only 23%) meanwhile Matthews has contributed on 29% of primary assists on Marner goals. And they then latched onto secondary assists lol.

Not to mention they said i was being disingenuous by posting 5v5 stats and not even strength stats. So I postes a quote from an NHL analytics website where they said it is agreed in the analytics community that 5v5 stats are best used because of stat padding yhat occurs in even strength points (empty net points).

Literally me training two posters who know nothing about advanced stats.

I can respect your motor you don’t let up for nothing my friend