Early projections are not guarantees, and even relative to the 92.4m speculation, Draisaitl would still be in the 15-16% range.
There is a slight difference in maximum term potential, but not in cap information, representative sample, or risk, like there is signing a year early. Your attempts to equate signing a year early and a day early are pretty disingenuous.
Neither of those are ridiculous at all.
There is no evidence that Marner was unwilling to talk last offseason. In fact, there have been constant "reports" of negotiations and "reports" of numbers throughout. So whatever "reports" you think you're referring to, they contradict each other.