Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[thusk]

Wow he did well in his contract year? Just crazy!!!

Auston, JT, Willie have never done that before and then fallen off..........LOL

Mitch wants to be basically the highest paid player in the NHL, his points/60 go from 12 in the season to 42nd in the playoffs, his goals/60 go from 104th to 205th.

His salary would dictate he is an indispensable 1st line "God," come playoff times he's basically a 2nd liner. 2nd liners don't get paid 13 million.

But it's Mitch though, so since he loves money so much as I said go to Chicago/San Jose/Pitt, I'm sure they'd be thrilled paying him 14+ million.

If leafs would react that way, they wouldn't had resigned any of Matthews/ Nylander too...

A guy moving from an average of 53 goal/82 game to 34 and who can't even hit the net when pressure his high...

or a guy who only had 1 goal and like 3-4 assist against any top 2 line (outside of MTL series)

It is what would make you closer to win in playoff

Agree with you, the leafs did their due diligence as they should. The mistake they made though is by saying or telling the canes, we are only saying no because Marner wouldn’t or won’t waive. You have to be smarter than that.

“Eric, thanks for the offer, as an organization we discussed it internally, we are gonna go a different direction with our assets” . It’s just they were a bit sloppy in their handling of this.

Responding like that gives no indication whether Marner declined to waive or not, protects your player, your organization and yourself from any backlash. Then this summer if he walks, throw out to the fans that he declined to waive and win the PR battle.

In a busy day like trade deadline where you're makind a hundred of phone with everyone, you don't necessairly taking time to think about those kind of thing. You're just focus to do the best for your team.

The more important thing is not really what he said to carolina but what he said to Marner. That's the reason why he came back yesterday to talk about the situation.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Agree with you, the leafs did their due diligence as they should. The mistake they made though is by saying or telling the canes, we are only saying no because Marner wouldn’t or won’t waive. You have to be smarter than that.

“Eric, thanks for the offer, as an organization we discussed it internally, we are gonna go a different direction with our assets” . It’s just they were a bit sloppy in their handling of this.

Responding like that gives no indication whether Marner declined to waive or not, protects your player, your organization and yourself from any backlash. Then this summer if he walks, throw out to the fans that he declined to waive and win the PR battle.

Serious question - do we actually have evidence that it was Carolina who reported or leaked the information?

 

[thewave]

Serious question - do we actually have evidence that it was Carolina who reported or leaked the information?

Managers stick together when it benefits them. Every manager knows Ferris. They threw them under the bus and who did it doesn't matter. The point is people have had enough of Ferris tactics and Mitch by extension.

It got leaked. Marner looks like a POS for keeping this direction a second time. Other managers have flagged him as difficult to work with.

 

[The Masters]

Leafs want Marner back and have a number for him. He doesn't want to take it. The guy wants 14+ he's not worth that. So the Leafs went to him and said listen Carolina wants you for Rantenan. Since you dont want to re-up at our number, we are just offering this opportunity to you if its something you want to pursue and go to Carolina. He declined as we all know.

I don't see any harm in what Tre did. The guy is just saying since u dont wana re-up at our number, theres another option for you if you want to take it. Like enough already. Let Marner go to free agency and do his thing. First time this org. has stopped playing nice nice. Glad Tre had the balls to go to him and see if he wanted to waive.

If the Leafs bust in the playoffs again, they prob shake up the team anyway and let him walk .

 

[francis246]

Serious question - do we actually have evidence that it was Carolina who reported or leaked the information?

I don’t, I personally think someone from the organization leaked it. The leafs have a million front office staff, all with different opinions on what’s going on. All it takes is for one person pissed off with the process to text an insider.

I know some people also believe it makes sense Carolina would do it to cause disruption and turmoil. That theory also makes sense.

I don’t really see any advantageous position for Marner’s camp to put that out there. So it’s either someone from the leafs or someone from Carolina IMO.

 

[francis246]

If leafs would react that way, they wouldn't had resigned any of Matthews/ Nylander too...

A guy moving from an average of 53 goal/82 game to 34 and who can't even hit the net when pressure his high...

or a guy who only had 1 goal and like 3-4 assist against any top 2 line (outside of MTL series)

It is what would make you closer to win in playoff

In a busy day like trade deadline where you're makind a hundred of phone with everyone, you don't necessairly taking time to think about those kind of thing. You're just focus to do the best for your team.

The more important thing is not really what he said to carolina but what he said to Marner. That's the reason why he came back yesterday to talk about the situation.

For sure but that’s what I’m saying, apart of your job as GM is to manage. And they slipped up by letting this become a story. There’s some info that should just not get out there.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Managers stick together when it benefits them. Every manager knows Ferris. They threw them under the bus and who did it doesn't matter. The point is people have had enough of Ferris tactics and Mitch by extension.

It got leaked. Marner looks like a POS for keeping this direction a second time. Other managers have flagged him as difficult to work with.

I don’t, I personally think someone from the organization leaked it. The leafs have a million front office staff, all with different opinions on what’s going on. All it takes is for one person pissed off with the process to text an insider.

I know some people also believe it makes sense Carolina would do it to cause disruption and turmoil. That theory also makes sense.

I don’t really see any advantageous position for Marner’s camp to put that out there. So it’s either someone from the leafs or someone from Carolina IMO.

Thanks. I've been seeing a few posts recently that blame Tre for telling Carolina that Marner had refused, and calling Carolina out for blabbing it.

I think it's entirely possible that Tre let it be known (one way or another) as a way of setting the bar, by letting Marner know that he values him no higher than Rantanen (i.e., $12M).

 

[Dekes For Days]

you have not showed any evidence.

I have explained the evidence to you. I don't know what you're expecting. There aren't really public studies on this kind of stuff to direct you to, and I did my research on this 5 years and 2 computers ago, so I don't have any fancy charts and graphs on hand for you. I looked at two different samples of 100+ higher end post-ELC and then UFA contracts throughout cap era history, and evaluated how different stats and factors correlated with the contract data. From what I remember, recent point and primary point per game production correlated highly and similarly. I believe about 50-60% more than goals and primary assists alone, which where also similar, and then another significant drop for secondary assists alone.

I actually put in the work to come to an accurate position. GMs would also be aware of the studies that show that goals and primary assists represent similar offensive impact, and I have no reason to default into believing that GMs would leave such a big market inefficiency. You're the one that doesn't have any actual evidence of their claim. But you're free to believe whatever you want. We are not getting anywhere so let's agree to disagree.

 

[thewave]

Thanks. I've been seeing a few posts recently that blame Tre for telling Carolina that Marner had refused, and calling Carolina out for blabbing it.

I think it's entirely possible that Tre let it be known (one way or another) as a way of setting the bar, by letting Marner know that he values him no higher than Rantanen (i.e., $12M).

And he is right to value him at Rantanen. Are we to value him at Drai? McDavid? It makes no sense. The cap is going up true but that does not mean you are entitled to take 100% of the increase for yourself. There are other players and those depth guys deserve some money too.

It's like the elite players want to follow the world model. 1% have 90% of the wealth.

Maybe they can just give all 2nd 3rd and 4th liners a universal basic income and sky is the limits for the Matthews and Marners of the world.

 

[francis246]

Thanks. I've been seeing a few posts recently that blame Tre for telling Carolina that Marner had refused, and calling Carolina out for blabbing it.

I think it's entirely possible that Tre let it be known (one way or another) as a way of setting the bar, by letting Marner know that he values him no higher than Rantanen (i.e., $12M).

Agreed, though Carolina did offer more than 12.5 for Rantanen and Rantanen said no. So we still don’t know what the absolute value for Rantanen and or a Marner would be on the open market. I’m sure it would be higher than 12, but how much more? Not sure we’ll find out if Mitch makes it there.

 

[thewave]

Agreed, though Carolina did offer more than 12.5 for Rantanen and Rantanen said no. So we still don’t know what the absolute value for Rantanen and or a Marner would be on the open market. I’m sure it would be higher than 12, but how much more? Not sure we’ll find out if Mitch makes it there.

Apparently Mitch makes like 3m from endorsements etc out of the GTA.. he will not earn that in Carolina. Not even in NY because there is nothing special about him elsewhere, he isn't star rated like Ovi or Crosby or McDavid.

12m + 3m in the GTA is good

 

[WTFMAN99]

Agreed, though Carolina did offer more than 12.5 for Rantanen and Rantanen said no. So we still don’t know what the absolute value for Rantanen and or a Marner would be on the open market. I’m sure it would be higher than 12, but how much more? Not sure we’ll find out if Mitch makes it there.

Plus if it's 12.5M x 7 or from Toronto 13.5M (1M deferred per year) for a 12.5M cap hit x 8 is more overall money for Marner.

Keep in mind that Rantanen was only getting like 4-6M range for signing bonuses whereas Toronto is likely going to be doing 11.1M signing bonus and 900k salary

11M on a terrible 3% ROI is still generating 300k in interest and he gets to use it right away each year, I am sure he he has a decent accountant / investment person.

I feel like Toronto has probably been very fair to Marner in these negotiations.

 

[NVious]

If leafs would react that way, they wouldn't had resigned any of Matthews/ Nylander too...

A guy moving from an average of 53 goal/82 game to 34 and who can't even hit the net when pressure his high...

or a guy who only had 1 goal and like 3-4 assist against any top 2 line (outside of MTL series)

It is what would make you closer to win in playoff

In a busy day like trade deadline where you're makind a hundred of phone with everyone, you don't necessairly taking time to think about those kind of thing. You're just focus to do the best for your team.

The more important thing is not really what he said to carolina but what he said to Marner. That's the reason why he came back yesterday to talk about the situation.

They obviously should've already moved one of the three, doesn't mean you have to keep them forever.

Mitch is the most expendable of the three. He has an even bigger dropoff from Matthews and isn't a big center, Willie has a small dropoff going into the playoffs and the other two are already signed.

Mitch could always go on a big run and win the Leafs a cup or take them to the finals if he wants to prove that he is worth the money or he could be a team player for once and take a team friendly deal, the odds of that are basically zero though because at the end of the day it's about Mitch/the money for him which is fine, but not conducive to winning culture or winning, as he has already proven.

 

[thusk]

For sure but that’s what I’m saying, apart of your job as GM is to manage. And they slipped up by letting this become a story. There’s some info that should just not get out there.

It's those kind of situation, can start by Marner are not interested to move from Toronto...Carolina interpreted it like Marner declined to waive his NMC and... Carolina doesn't care like Toronto staff how they talk to media and probably the news came from caroline front office...We just have no idea what had been really said and we will never know it.

 

[The Shadow]

Dubas messed up this negotiation big time. How the hell did Marner get $11 million a year 6 years ago was insanity

 

[thusk]

They obviously should've already moved one of the three, doesn't mean you have to keep them forever.

Mitch is the most expendable of the three. He has an even bigger dropoff from Matthews and isn't a big center, Willie has a small dropoff going into the playoffs and the other two are already signed.

Mitch could always go on a big run and win the Leafs a cup or take them to the finals if he wants to prove that he is worth the money or he could be a team player for once and take a team friendly deal, the odds of that are basically zero though because at the end of the day it's about Mitch/the money for him which is fine, but not conducive to winning culture or winning, as he has already proven.

but nobody having really any kind of idea of what deal he really want. Like exemple targeting 13-14 M to start a negociation could mean his real goal is to reach 12M ( same deal as Rantanen). Nobody start negociation exactly with the salary he he's really want and we having no kind of idea what this salary is, we just speculating.

 

[NVious]

but nobody having really any kind of idea of what deal he really want. Like exemple targeting 13-14 M to start a negociation could mean his real goal is to reach 12M ( same deal as Rantanen). Nobody start negociation exactly with the salary he he's really want and we having no kind of idea what this salary is, we just speculating.

It's Marner lol, he's easily asking 12+

He could could come out tomorrow and say "I love Toronto, give me 8.5 and let' win the cup" and become a "God."

But it's MONEY Mitch, CASH RULES EVERYTHING AROUND MITCH (cream)

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Plus if it's 12.5M x 7 or from Toronto 13.5M (1M deferred per year) for a 12.5M cap hit x 8 is more overall money for Marner.

Keep in mind that Rantanen was only getting like 4-6M range for signing bonuses whereas Toronto is likely going to be doing 11.1M signing bonus and 900k salary

11M on a terrible 3% ROI is still generating 300k in interest and he gets to use it right away each year, I am sure he he has a decent accountant / investment person.

I feel like Toronto has probably been very fair to Marner in these negotiations.

Plus it will be front loaded.

Last time he got $16M his first two or three years. That went down to I think $8M the last year. So I expect he will be getting $20+ the first couple years on this one.

That's a major player friendly no other team will match either.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

What this tells us is the Leafs and management is not necessarily tied 100% to Marner with any guarantee he is returning.

If you ask a player to waive your NMC it means they liked the return they were getting.

That's my read on it as well. Marner is a huge plus to any organization, but when you start adding $ and term to it, it becomes a lot more nuanced. Then you start throwing other factors such as the current payroll, salary cap, team structure, and it becomes even more subtle. I don't think it's the sheer dollar amount of $1M-$2M difference in ask between parties that's making Treliving be cautious (especially given that Carlo, Laughton are coming with term and retention) - but it's the precedence being set. Assuming that Treliving even wants everyone back next season, if you sign Marner at $13.75M+, what's Tavares going to ask? $7.5M? If it's any non-bridge contract (e.g. 5+ years), I'd start at $8M if I'm Knies' agent if Marner gets $13.5M+. If I'm Robertson, I'd want $1.4M instead of $1.1M, or if I'm McMann, I'd ask for $4M+, etc., and this quickly adds up extremely quickly.


For the record, I still like Marner at $12.5M-$13.0M x 8 if he is willing to accepted a limited NMC throughout the duration of the contract. I think that's fair for both sides. If he counters with more elsewheree on a 7-year deal, I'd wish him all the best and move on.

 

[ToneDog]

There’s no way the Leafs don’t re-sign him, unless Mitch decides to walk. They have essentially made their bed by trading all their picks and prospects for immediate help.

Typically you could use those for trades to acquire good pieces while perhaps taking a bit of salary back. They don’t have that option anymore. Their only option is pay Mitch and pray.

Praying has not worked for almost 60 years. Take the money and try something that might work because staying the course is fool's gold at this point.

Leafs want Marner back and have a number for him. He doesn't want to take it. The guy wants 14+ he's not worth that. So the Leafs went to him and said listen Carolina wants you for Rantenan. Since you dont want to re-up at our number, we are just offering this opportunity to you if its something you want to pursue and go to Carolina. He declined as we all know.

I don't see any harm in what Tre did. The guy is just saying since u dont wana re-up at our number, theres another option for you if you want to take it. Like enough already. Let Marner go to free agency and do his thing. First time this org. has stopped playing nice nice. Glad Tre had the balls to go to him and see if he wanted to waive.

If the Leafs bust in the playoffs again, they prob shake up the team anyway and let him walk .

It is business and it is a two way street, not just when Marner wants it to be. Did he hurt Marner's feelings, put shambles in his head? The only fans thinking Tre did wrong are the Marner PR crew. I applaud him for putting the team ahead of the prick. I just wish he digs in or better yet takes his offer off the table and tells Marner and his camp to f*** off already.

 

[thewave]

I am surprised Marner isn't shaking them down for 1m Donations from Bell Rogers and LarryT each to his foundation.

Probably has some holding company registered in the Bahamas too

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Dubas messed up this negotiation big time. How the hell did Marner get $11 million a year 6 years ago was insanity

This isn't on Dubas. The big mistake was not talking a stand with Marner before his NMC kicked in. They had a window and they let it slip away. They could have either extended him or moved him. Now they can't do anything unless Marner's good with it. Dubas probably would have made the same mistake but it wasn't him.

 

[thewave]

This isn't on Dubas. The big mistake was not talking a stand with Marner before his NMC kicked in. They had a window and they let it slip away. They could have either extended him or moved him. Now they can't do anything unless Marner's good with it. Dubas probably would have made the same mistake but it wasn't him.

This probably came down from LarryT and MLSE accounting. Shanahan is the second man up to blame and the Dubas. We don't know who called the shots but it sounded like Dubas was ready to move on from one. Too little too late regardless.

 

[leafsfan5]

This isn't on Dubas. The big mistake was not talking a stand with Marner before his NMC kicked in. They had a window and they let it slip away. They could have either extended him or moved him. Now they can't do anything unless Marner's good with it. Dubas probably would have made the same mistake but it wasn't him.

The issue is the Leafs only want to move him for an elite player - which is extremely understandable. It's the Nylander situation again where they shopped him for months but couldn't find an equal talent, so they re-signed him

Except in this case, the Leafs found the elite talent that they'd trade Marner for in Mikko Rantanen. But they couldn't pull the trigger because Dubas gave Mitch Marner literally every f***ing thing he could ask for when he signed as an RFA

 

[ToneDog]

Dubas messed up this negotiation big time. How the hell did Marner get $11 million a year 6 years ago was insanity

The Leafs leaked it and the fans went nuts. Otherwise he was holding out for more. Hard to believe they are pulling the same bullshit 6 years later after the lack of playoff success and his sad playoff performances.

What pisses me off is that they have ben begging the asshole to sign when they should be waiting to see what he and the team do in the playoffs. Locking yourself into running back this core again before seeing playoff results shows you just how much winning means to them. Boggles the mind.