Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[Superstar]

1.)You did. Look what you wrote. You wrote that the history of contracts is more in line with primary POINT production then goal production. That’s what you wrote. Of course that would be the case. Goals are in your completely made up stat. In primary points. So comparing goals AND assists would be more predictive than just goals. Ie a 40 goal 60 pt player is worth less than an 30 goal 120 pt player. You wrote primary POINTS, not assists.

A 40 goals 100 pt player is worth more than a 30 goal 100 pt player.

Because as the NHL established. A goal is worth 1.75 assists in contract values.


2.) the NHL players and owners all sat down and quantified values of certain stats. They chose to base performance values on goals, assists, points.

They could have used “primary assists” and chose not to. They could have counted 20 primary assists as a bonus. They didn’t. They could have made primary points a category.

You have decided, with zero evidence that the NHL collectively bargained to make goals worth more money than assists in ELC contracts but not RFA and UFA, didn not mention primary points. Or primary assists.

You expect anyone to believe that the NHL bargained to make contracts based on completely different things and value them completely differently in other contracts, but choose to pay people differently here why? For fun?

It’s just silly. You know you are wrong. You provide no evidence. I provided the literal CBA formula

You do know the entire hockey world is watching Ovechkin closely as he's trying to break Wayne's iconic primary assists record, right? It is that significant.

 

[notDatsyuk]

How has Marner been running the PP from the point? Curious if my team would be one that would give a stupid offer.

He's been absolutely fabulous there, and if it weren't for how terrible the other players are, our PP would be running at about 45%.

You should certainly convince your GM that he's definitely worth $15M per.

 

[DarkKnight]

Post-Deadline Buzz has Marner front and centre — The Fourth Period

David Pagnotta touches on the big moves made at the trade deadline and hits on what didn’t go down.

www.thefourthperiod.com

So Pagnotta throws out the teams he thinks would go hard for Marner:

"Several teams are going to be following the Marner situation closely. If he does in fact become an unrestricted free agent, I fully expect teams like Chicago, Utah, Los Angeles, Calgary, Philadelphia, San Jose, Pittsburgh and the Islanders to enter the chat"

There isn't a team in that list that should be appealing, relative to the situation here. Now, I believe other teams would try to do something, but that list is a dog's breakfast of mediocrity.

 

[PromisedLand]

 

[notDatsyuk]

Treliving comes off pretty stupid saying they think the world of Mitch and want him here a long time. Why ask him to waive his no trade then ? Leafs need to come out and say what they’ve offered Mitch. Make him squirm

Saying things like that are pretty standard when talking about your own players, and are often nothing more than pumping trade value.

The fact that he was interested in swapping Marner for Rantanen speaks more about how he actually values both players.

 

[HellasLEAF]

I am not sure I have him above Nylander's 11.5.

In fact, I think he should sign the exact same contract. 11.5 x 8.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Post-Deadline Buzz has Marner front and centre — The Fourth Period

David Pagnotta touches on the big moves made at the trade deadline and hits on what didn’t go down.

www.thefourthperiod.com

So Pagnotta throws out the teams he thinks would go hard for Marner:

"Several teams are going to be following the Marner situation closely. If he does in fact become an unrestricted free agent, I fully expect teams like Chicago, Utah, Los Angeles, Calgary, Philadelphia, San Jose, Pittsburgh and the Islanders to enter the chat"

There isn't a team in that list that should be appealing, relative to the situation here. Now, I believe other teams would try to do something, but that list is a dog's breakfast of mediocrity.

I wouldnt be surprised to see Pittsburgh go hard at him, not just for the Dubas connection but also for the (misguided) attempt to squeeze the last bit of juice from that orange before they wait for the next harvest season.

Utah may actually be a good fit for him. Hear me out: his take home pay would be significant, he'd provide a huge boost for that team as they look to take the next step, the regular season is very relevant for them as they continue to build their fanbase, and the fanbase is realistically going to leave him alone and not get in his business. Will his wife want to go there? I have no idea.

If SJ wins the lottery that pick (Schaefer) is their last major piece of what is quite frankly a load of promising talent, and they need to start taking the next step. I don't think Marner is the best fit there though. I do like their rebuild better than Chicago's.

LA is a terrific fit IMO. Don't know if they have the cap space but they hate their youth and would probably welcome Marner with open arms.

The Flyers are gutter trash. One of the worst run franchises in sports.

If you looked up "meh" in the dictionary you'd see a Calgary Flames logo. Not a chance in hell he signs there. They're total mid until the owner sells.

 

[Confucius]

So we aren't signing anyone this summer, because it's going to be overpay central with all the cap space out there. I predict the most outrageous over pays in years and years. This is where all the talk about Marner's cap space doesn't entertain you're going to over pay for the replacements this summer. Nobody wants to compute that, but it's a stone cold fact, unless you're going after marginal add ons.

In December, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman said the salary cap for the 2025-26 season was projected to be $92.4 million, a $4 million jump from this season's cap of $88 million.

NHL, NHLPA announce team payroll ranges for next 3 seasons | NHL.com

Salary cap could increase to $113.5 million for 2027-28 season

www.nhl.com

I’m certainly not going to give half of it to one guy, there’s 23 guys on a team.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Brad Treliving addresses Mitch Marner trade reports: ‘We want Mitch here for a long time’

The Maple Leafs GM said he is "aligned” with Marner amid the latest speculation about the star winger's future in Toronto.

www.nytimes.com

Leafs management couldn’t be more stupid honestly. If you want him, why the f*** would you ask him to waive? Then allow that to get out. Just clown behaviour from this management team. Reading that article it’s clear that decision has disrupted the locker room.

Though it does sound like Marner needs to cut out the middle man. Ferris seems to be the issue.

Or they could be really smart.

Letting him know that they are willing to let him go, and also that they value Rantanen more, thereby setting Mitch's value at under $12M.

 

[IPS]

Brad Treliving addresses Mitch Marner trade reports: ‘We want Mitch here for a long time’

The Maple Leafs GM said he is "aligned” with Marner amid the latest speculation about the star winger's future in Toronto.

www.nytimes.com

Leafs management couldn’t be more stupid honestly. If you want him, why the f*** would you ask him to waive? Then allow that to get out. Just clown behaviour from this management team. Reading that article it’s clear that decision has disrupted the locker room.

Though it does sound like Marner needs to cut out the middle man. Ferris seems to be the issue.

Yeah from an optics perspective it certainly hasn't been handled well. You don't want a rift between the team and one of your A's in the locker room at this juncture of the season, nobody benefits from that.

 

[notDatsyuk]

30 years my friend but one can hope

65+ years and still hoping.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

65+ years and still hoping.

When I'm that age, if I make it, I'm going to be shitting in my own hands and throwing it at the employees at the insane asylum.

God bless you man.

 

[Dekes For Days]

the NHL collectively bargained for performance bonuses. they all agreed on what they thought was important.

It was never meant as an exhaustive list of considerations in contract negotiations or "what was important". They didn't need to have a primary assist benchmark because they already captured playmaking contributors with the more inclusive assist benchmark. And they included things like TOI and +/-, not because they were more or equally valuable as other benchmarks or stats, but because they wanted to ensure that players were not discriminated against because of their specific type of contribution. How ironic that you are now attempting to misuse it to discriminate against a player because of playstyle.

Are you going on record that a good +/- is worth the same as 60 points? And that's worth the same as going to the all star game? And that a GM pays a 20 goal scorer the same as somebody who has a good all star game performance? Speaking of which, are you saying that performance in an all star game is a significant part of contract negotiations? I guess we need to compare those then. I mean, it's worth the same as 60 points right? And the "quantified value" of getting 20 goals/60 points gets you paid... 250k? Your entire argument is built on all of that being true.

 

[notDatsyuk]

When I'm that age, if I make it, I'm going to be shitting in my own hands and throwing it at the employees at the insane asylum.

God bless you man.

And what makes you think I'm not?

(I'm still playing hockey twice a week. In the pickup game we have kids 1/3 my age.)

 

[ULF_55]

Columbus might be the best place for him.

They could give him max and he really wanted to be there anyway.

Won't even need threaten an offer sheet, just sign and be done with it.

Every year 15 teams not named Toronto make the playoffs without the Little m, so he isn't critical for making the playoffs.

 

[The Best Leafs Everr]

Rantanen signed an extension in Dallas.. , wake up and pay attention

Oh boy, f*** Marner. I still don’t want to see this piece of shit here in this city.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Overpaying for something is always worse than walking away.

1. That's not always true, and it's certainly not true for a prime aged franchise player in a rapidly rising cap environment.
2. Marner is not likely to be overpaid, and is more likely to outperform the contract he gets than whatever alternatives we'd use that money on.

61 points, 69 points, 94 points. Ahh yes lets give him 11 million just because we paid a consistent 80 point player 11 million as a FA. Got Mac who put up 111 points in 77 games and just signed for 12.6 x 8 years and yet our guys deserve more because why?

Marner got 10.9m because he was one of the best young players in cap era history, not because of any FA. The 10th highest value post-ELC forward contract with the 6th best pre-signing period. And he's grown into one of the best players in the league. You still don't realize how rare a player like him is.

Contracts aren't just a result of peak single season raw point production, and Marner is closer to Mackinnon than you realize (and closer especially to Mackinnon when he signed), but he's also not going to get more than MacKinnon. Mackinnon's contract this offseason would be 14.6m. When the cap rises, contracts rise with it. And similarly, in a few years, players worse than Marner will be signing for more than Marner.

How much worse it can get? Yeah back when we had Bozak as our #1C and Kessel as our best player. Nylander is a better player than Kessel and tbh are almost identical with how they play. Nylander drives the net more though. Now we have Matthews as our #1C and our best player and Tavares as our #2C with Nylander signed long term. Even losing Marner we still have it good compared to before.

There's more than that to a team, but yes, we would likely be better than when we were a bottom feeder. Personally, I'm not okay with just being better than a bottom feeder.

Letting Marner walk just means after we re sign Knies that we can fill the rest of the depth forward spots with players that aren't making league minimum and won't have to rely on 3 or 4 forwards to do everything every game.

It means that we can pretend to have better depth, while we really just overpay the same quality depth we've had, and get worse overall. If we're lucky, maybe we'll only create one long term anchor. Teams don't win by spending a bunch on depth. They win by finding efficiencies in their depth. Our cheaper depth this year has been better than our more expensive depth.

 

[png57]

I wouldnt be surprised to see Pittsburgh go hard at him, not just for the Dubas connection but also for the (misguided) attempt to squeeze the last bit of juice from that orange before they wait for the next harvest season.

Utah may actually be a good fit for him. Hear me out: his take home pay would be significant, he'd provide a huge boost for that team as they look to take the next step, the regular season is very relevant for them as they continue to build their fanbase, and the fanbase is realistically going to leave him alone and not get in his business. Will his wife want to go there? I have no idea.

If SJ wins the lottery that pick (Schaefer) is their last major piece of what is quite frankly a load of promising talent, and they need to start taking the next step. I don't think Marner is the best fit there though. I do like their rebuild better than Chicago's.

LA is a terrific fit IMO. Don't know if they have the cap space but they hate their youth and would probably welcome Marner with open arms.

The Flyers are gutter trash. One of the worst run franchises in sports.

If you looked up "meh" in the dictionary you'd see a Calgary Flames logo. Not a chance in hell he signs there. They're total mid until the owner sells.

While I don't know the guy personally, I feel like his allegiance to Toronto is not insignificant. Sure, he would easily find a heftier contract in another market. But he's from Toronto, he just had a kid, has great on-ice chemistry with Matthews (and seemingly very good friends off the ice as well), and also appears to be very well liked in the locker room in general. Would he be willing to leave all that behind? I think it would be killing him inside if he did.

I'm going to bet he won't have the guts to say to hell with it with Toronto and sign elsewhere.

Perhaps Leafs should leverage his ties with TO, tell him straight up to stop being such a p@!n in the @$$, and sign that goddamn contract on the terms the Leafs offered.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

While I don't know the guy personally, I feel like his allegiance to Toronto is not insignificant. Sure, he would easily find a heftier contract in another market. But he's from Toronto, he just had a kid, has great on-ice chemistry with Matthews (and seemingly very good friends off the ice as well), and also appears to be very well liked in the locker room in general. Would he be willing to leave all that behind? I think it would be killing him inside if he did.

I'm going to bet he won't have the guts to say to hell with it with Toronto and sign elsewhere.

Perhaps Leafs should leverage his ties with TO, tell him straight up to stop being such a p@!n in the @$$, and sign that goddamn contract on the terms the Leafs offered.

Exactly. If he wants to be in Toronto so much, prove it at the negotiation table.