Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[Sypher04]

Ok, team wide SV% being that low means our depth is more able to score the majority of goals vs. our two superstars (Marner and Matthews), vs the Oilers depth scoring significantly less because their superstars can feast on poor goal tending? Shouldn't the ratios of goals still be somewhat consistent if our superstars are living up to their contracts?

Meaning, when I look at Mcdavid + Drai, they score 35% of their teams goals post season the last 3 years. Matthews + Marner score 24% of our teams goals over the past three years. Shouldn't they be relatively close if your theory is correct? How are our depth players able to generate a higher percentage of goals vs. Oilers depth if ours are facing "vezina" goaltending every year? Shouldn't it be tougher for our depth to score if that's the case?

Not following your logic here.
If McDavid and Draisaitl score a higher percentage of the Oilers goals than Matthews and Marner do for the Leafs, and the Oilers have scored nearly an entire extra goal per game in the playoffs vs Toronto (whether that’s due to lesser opposition goaltending, pp or otherwise) why would their numbers be close?

 

[mclaren55]

I mean when you put marner in that category and leave Willy out it’s kinda misleading for one

Why is it misleading? Nylander wasn't our second highest paid player for those three years total.

 

[mclaren55]

Not following your logic here.
If McDavid and Draisaitl score a higher percentage of the Oilers goals than Matthews and Marner do for the Leafs, and the Oilers have scored nearly an entire extra goal per game in the playoffs vs Toronto (whether that’s due to lesser opposition goaltending, pp or otherwise) why would their numbers be close?

Marner + Matthews go from 29% of goals scored regular season to 23% in the post season. If they are going up against elite goaltending, why are our depth guys scoring 6% more of the goals post season? Wouldn't it stand to reason that our two most elite guys would still be putting up decent numbers? McD and Drai combine for 32% regular season to 29% post season, a significantly smaller drop, but still a drop even though they apparently have "worse" goaltending to play against.

I think us getting "goalied" is significantly overstated and has more to do with our top guys not being as effective in the playoffs. We haven't lost for 8 years because we are getting goalied each time. It's a lazy narrative.

For the record, McDavid and Drai lit up the same vezina level goaltending that shit all over us in the second round. Explain that?

 

[arso40]

Why is it misleading? Nylander wasn't our second highest paid player for those three years total.

You mentioned superstars and percentage of goals 2 things that should include nylander it’s not our fault they only have 2 superstars but if it’s pertaining to salary then I understand

 

[mclaren55]

You mentioned superstars and percentage of goals 2 things that should include nylander it’s not our fault they only have 2 superstars but if it’s pertaining to salary then I understand

Fair enough, but this is a Marner thread and I was looking at the two guys from each team that are the "horses" for their clubs based off an initial post by Dekes. At the end of the day I'm not the guy paying them, so it doesn't really matter to me. Just sad that our guys get all of these excuses laid at their feet every year for their shitty performances.

 

[arso40]

Fair enough, but this is a Marner thread and I was looking at the two guys from each team that are the "horses" for their clubs based off an initial post by Dekes. At the end of the day I'm not the guy paying them, so it doesn't really matter to me. Just sad that our guys get all of these excuses laid at their feet every year for their shitty performances.

Agreed they need to learn relentlessness

 

[hullsy47]

Agreed they need to learn relentlessness

I think with bob mackenzie and dreger both saying he is looking to go to FREE AGENCY i hope treliving doesnt overpay for some slugs
Keep your kids keep the capspace and trade at the draft for a stud defenceman
Biggest mistake was letting the no move clause kick in wirhout marner negotiating
Now this supposed non distraction is a major distraction that can only end with a win for marner

 

[Jojalu]

I think with bob mackenzie and dreger both saying he is looking to go to FREE AGENCY i hope treliving doesnt overpay for some slugs
Keep your kids keep the capspace and trade at the draft for a stud defenceman
Biggest mistake was letting the no move clause kick in wirhout marner negotiating
Now this supposed non distraction is a major distraction that can only end with a win for marner

My initial thought was the same, but if they are going to let Marner and Tavares walk if they get bounced again early, I can see why they would take a few swings and try to go for it.

I wouldn't empty the limited farm for it, but I would take on some term and salary if they are suddenly going to have 22 extra million next year.

 

[Sundinisagod]

With the rumors of Marner testing the ufa market, that tells us he doesn't care about that 8th year, because he was gonna go short term all along. He'll probably sign for 2 years, around 13m, after which the cap will be 113.5m, at 14% would be $15,890,000 and he'll take his 8 year deal then. The 8 year contract will be perfectly timed for him, as he will be paid 14% as in his prime but possibly be in decline for the entirety of the contract. If the cap rises a lot in 2028/29 then a 3 year deal now would be even more lucrative for Marner, and worse for Toronto. Here we thought we had that 8th year advantage to get him signed to 13 x 8 to compete with 14 x 7 offers. It was a pipe dream. He railed us when he had little leverage over us as a rfa, but now that he has that ufa leverage he will use it to get paid max dollar til he retires. He's gonna be making around 16m for his ages 30-38 years. He's been thinking a few steps ahead of the rest of us. Doesn't hurt him signing after Matthews every time either.

 

[Apex Predator]

With the rumors of Marner testing the ufa market, that tells us he doesn't care about that 8th year, because he was gonna go short term all along. He'll probably sign for 2 years, around 13m, after which the cap will be 113.5m, at 14% would be $15,890,000 and he'll take his 8 year deal then. The 8 year contract will be perfectly timed for him, as he will be paid 14% as in his prime but possibly be in decline for the entirety of the contract. If the cap rises a lot in 2028/29 then a 3 year deal now would be even more lucrative for Marner, and worse for Toronto. Here we thought we had that 8th year advantage to get him signed to 13 x 8 to compete with 14 x 7 offers. It was a pipe dream. He railed us when he had little leverage over us as a rfa, but now that he has that ufa leverage he will use it to get paid max dollar til he retires. He's gonna be making around 16m for his ages 30-38 years. He's been thinking a few steps ahead of the rest of us. Doesn't hurt him signing after Matthews every time either.

You mean to say all our stars who never signed for max term were all of a sudden going to sign max term when the cap was rising? Max term means nothing it was all about how to maximize money and you nailed it perfectly here. Matthews thinking the same.

 

[LeafEgo]

To some extent, but those are the SV%s against their entire teams, not against the individual, so the individual would only represent a fraction of the overall.

I dont think those stats tell you much anyways, but the additional .66 goals created per game by McD over Matty alone is going to get you pretty close to explaining away the entire difference in sv% between the opposing tenders.

We've faced some tough goaltending on the whole no doubt, thats obvious, but the bigger problem is the stars not producing.

 

[Sundinisagod]

You mean to say all our stars who never signed for max term were all of a sudden going to sign max term when the cap was rising? Max term means nothing it was all about how to maximize money and you nailed it perfectly here. Matthews thinking the same.

Yeah he’s following the Matthews game plan. To be honest, I didn’t think he was confident enough like Matthews to bet on himself, but I clearly underestimated him. Everything is lining up perfectly for him. It’s pretty ideal to have Matthews raising the bar with each deal he signs as well, then hitting ufa right after him. We’ve been complaining about their salaries during their primes, wait til we’re paying them top cap percentage while they are declining.

 

[Confucius]

With Mckenzie and now Dregs saying the possibility is now he might test the market it seems like another playoff failure might lead to parting ways.

If the Leafs end up letting Marner walk they had better hit a HR with the 11-13 million they would save. Plus if you are willing to let him walk, why not let JT walk and go for a soft re-tool.

Well I think JT is worth 7 million on a short term deal that’s the main reason I keep him. We aren’t getting a 2nd line center who is great with board battles and a top 10 faceoff man and maybe 70 points for less than 7 million

He’s got more goals than Mathews and yes he’s played 8 more games but Mathews isn’t as good a faceoff man isn’t as good on the boards and will be making double what JT does.

 

[Jojalu]

Well I think JT is worth 7 million on a short term deal that’s the main reason I keep him. We aren’t getting a 2nd line center who is great with board battles and a top 10 faceoff man and maybe 70 points for less than 7 million

He’s got more goals than Mathews and yes he’s played 8 more games but Mathews isn’t as good a faceoff man isn’t as good on the boards and will be making double what JT does.

I too think he would be worth 7 mil.

The question I have is if the lose again in the first round, would only moving on from either Marner or Tavares be enough of a change?

Production wise you are absolutely correct. Going to be hard to find 30 goals/80 points for 7 mil from a C in FA. But would a different mix outweigh the lack of production?

 

[Evilhomer]

With the rumors of Marner testing the ufa market, that tells us he doesn't care about that 8th year, because he was gonna go short term all along. He'll probably sign for 2 years, around 13m, after which the cap will be 113.5m, at 14% would be $15,890,000 and he'll take his 8 year deal then. The 8 year contract will be perfectly timed for him, as he will be paid 14% as in his prime but possibly be in decline for the entirety of the contract. If the cap rises a lot in 2028/29 then a 3 year deal now would be even more lucrative for Marner, and worse for Toronto. Here we thought we had that 8th year advantage to get him signed to 13 x 8 to compete with 14 x 7 offers. It was a pipe dream. He railed us when he had little leverage over us as a rfa, but now that he has that ufa leverage he will use it to get paid max dollar til he retires. He's gonna be making around 16m for his ages 30-38 years. He's been thinking a few steps ahead of the rest of us. Doesn't hurt him signing after Matthews every time either.

I think you are likely right that it will be a shorter-term, but it will be with the Leafs. The team will ultimately cave to whatever number/term gets him under contract. There is no circumstance under which they will let him walk.