Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[mclaren55]

To some extent, but those are the SV%s against their entire teams, not against the individual, so the individual would only represent a fraction of the overall. And if you're having these big team-wide swings in conversion contrary to a bigger, more representative sample, you're likely looking at goaltending impacts. It also wouldn't be impacted by the shot generation aspect of scoring; only conversion. As you can see, both 0.909 and 0.888 goaltending produced players that achieved ~1.10 P/GP. Both 0.885 and 0.911 goaltending produced players that achieved ~1.03 P/GP. Both 0.893 and 0.922 goaltending produced players that achieved ~0.87 P/GP.

This doesn't mean, for example, that you ignore McDavid's production. 1.51 P/GP against goalies is insane, even if you're facing 0.896 goaltending. But it should help people understand that playoff production isn't so black and white, and situation can really impact things. Eichel producing 1.03 P/GP against 0.885 goaltending isn't really more impressive than Ovechkin managing 0.93 P/GP against 0.918 goaltending. Matthews and Marner being in the top 20 despite averaging facing 0.922 Vezina caliber goaltending isn't the catastrophe some treat it as.

Ok, team wide SV% being that low means our depth is more able to score the majority of goals vs. our two superstars (Marner and Matthews), vs the Oilers depth scoring significantly less because their superstars can feast on poor goal tending? Shouldn't the ratios of goals still be somewhat consistent if our superstars are living up to their contracts?

Meaning, when I look at Mcdavid + Drai, they score 35% of their teams goals post season the last 3 years. Matthews + Marner score 24% of our teams goals over the past three years. Shouldn't they be relatively close if your theory is correct? How are our depth players able to generate a higher percentage of goals vs. Oilers depth if ours are facing "vezina" goaltending every year? Shouldn't it be tougher for our depth to score if that's the case?

 

[IPS]

Pointless and silly comment.

There is a bigger sample size for Marner.

The two players were compared, those are their stats.

Well yeah just saying we can't really put an awful lot of stock into only 12 playoff games.

 

[Gary Nylund]

"I think I can move my parents and my wife's parents or fly them out every week to wherever I play with the extra $2 million a year plus the tax savings, thanks"

I don't think it'll factor in much.

Endorsements though:

"Currently according to Forbes' athlete profile, Marner currently earns $2M in endorsement deals from Nike, Beats by Dre, Red Bull, Oakley, Intact Insurance, and now PSD Underwear."

Mitch Marner Turns Heads, Posing in Bold Underwear Photoshoot to Launch New Endorsement Deal

Mitch Marner may have a second career in modeling if his new endorsement photos are any clue, as the Leafs forward recently signed a deal with PSD Underwear.

www.hockeypatrol.com

I think the fact that he was a diehard Leafs fan growing up and probably loves playing for his hometown team despite the the lunatic fans will likely have a bigger impact.

I think so too.

I can't believe the negativity on this board when it comes to Marner. The guy is one of the most entertaining players in the whole league. His coaches love him. He gets more points than almost any Leaf I've ever gotten to watch. He can hold his own on the defensive side, even playing the PK. He makes players around him better. And he loves being a Maple Leaf.

Isn't this the kind of player to pay for?

The best entertainment is winning in the playoffs.

I get that the team hasn't had playoff success. I agree that it's a problem. But you'd think that Marner was some scrub who signed a big contract and then quit on the team, based on the amount of hate from HFLeafs. I hope they extend him. Even if it's a bit of an overpay, I quite frankly don't care. Some teams have to deal with disaster contracts for 4 or 5 million on players who contribute nothing. I'm fine with some extra cap space going to legit all-star level talent.

It's not "a problem", it's "the problem".

 

[ToneDog]

Can I pick which of Marner's 12 playoff games we should ignore?

It's also 13.

So they both suck in the playoffs but Marner deserves $6m more than Bratt. That is some kind of business brilliance.

 

[notbias]

So they both suck in the playoffs but Marner deserves $6m more than Bratt. That is some kind of business brilliance.

One is much, much better.

Your logic is flawed, sorry.

Endorsements though:

"Currently according to Forbes' athlete profile, Marner currently earns $2M in endorsement deals from Nike, Beats by Dre, Red Bull, Oakley, Intact Insurance, and now PSD Underwear."

Mitch Marner Turns Heads, Posing in Bold Underwear Photoshoot to Launch New Endorsement Deal

Mitch Marner may have a second career in modeling if his new endorsement photos are any clue, as the Leafs forward recently signed a deal with PSD Underwear.

www.hockeypatrol.com

Ya, endorsements would hurt a little, might even out with a low state income tax.

Regardless, endorsements aren't free money, there is still some time and damage done to your ego.

I don't know what will happen, but I don't think money/family is a huge concern, he has the money to solve that problem pretty easily.

 

[francis246]

It’s also entirely possible that the Leafs have no interest in signing him long term

Absolutely! It would be foolish to assume the leafs automatically want to sign him as well. It goes both ways.

 

[Gabriel426]

Absolutely! It would be foolish to assume the leafs automatically want to sign him as well. It goes both ways.

Yep and I don’t see why it is a bad thing.

MM might want to play in a City and a team where he is truly the Robin or Nightwing instead of being the bargain bin Batman.

Leafs might want to head a different direction with different players at the top as they have been a playoffs team.

Or both sides want each other but can’t agree on price.

 

[francis246]

I can only offer that it seems to me that it's baked intothe MLSE mission statement that you don't ever trade away top talent.

I think I recall Dubas once repeated that very statement - Not sure if it was before or after their 6th straight first round exit?

Brad Treliving reiterated those sentiments during his first presser.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Regardless, endorsements aren't free money, there is still some time and damage done to your ego.

How does doing endorsements damage Marner's ego? If anything, I'd say the opposite is true.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Shouldn't the ratios of goals still be somewhat consistent if our superstars are living up to their contracts?

The percentage of team goals that they contribute to does remain consistent. In fact, it increases slightly.
2016-2024, Marner has gotten a point on 30.2% of team goals in the regular season and 33.3% of team goals in the playoffs.
2016-2024, Matthews has gotten a point on 30.7% of team goals in the regular season and 32.0% of team goals in the playoffs.
The team as a whole just scores less, because it's facing 0.922 goaltending.

 

[francis246]

Yep and I don’t see why it is a bad thing.

MM might want to play in a City and a team where he is truly the Robin or Nightwing instead of being the bargain bin Batman.

Leafs might want to head a different direction with different players at the top as they have been a playoffs team.

Or both sides want each other but can’t agree on price.

I think the playoffs will be a big factor. If they have success I see a happy ending for all

 

[notbias]

How does doing endorsements damage Marner's ego? If anything, I'd say the opposite is true.

Maybe it is just me, I'd feel somewhat scummy/gross selling myself for money like that. Especially if I don't believe in the product.

 

[thewave]

Maybe it is just me, I'd feel somewhat scummy/gross selling myself for money like that. Especially if I don't believe in the product.

You pay to bite that Burger now, wouldn't it be nice to have the Burger pay you?

 

[Sundinisagod]

Was it better when the team had no talent to overpay? Back then they spent high dollars on those low end guys like Jeff Finger and Colby Armstrong. Was that a winning culture?

You could be stingy with everyone. Then you'd have a team that no one wants to play for and bleeds talent every year.

I'm not saying that if I was at the negotiating table I'd hand him a blank cheque. Of course I want the extension to be team-friendly. But letting Marner and Tavares walk just for cap space doesn't set this team up for a Cup win any time soon.

What is your walk away number for Marner ?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Maybe it is just me, I'd feel somewhat scummy/gross selling myself for money like that. Especially if I don't believe in the product.

My guess is that being paid for use of their name/image and/or whatever else would be an ego boost for most players. These days you even have big name actors even doing ads so I'd say getting paid to do TV ads is a bigger ego boost than it's ever been, like joining an exclusive club or something.

 

[mclaren55]

The percentage of team goals that they contribute to does remain consistent. In fact, it increases slightly.
2016-2024, Marner has gotten a point on 30.2% of team goals in the regular season and 33.3% of team goals in the playoffs.
2016-2024, Matthews has gotten a point on 30.7% of team goals in the regular season and 32.0% of team goals in the playoffs.
The team as a whole just scores less, because it's facing 0.922 goaltending.

So the fact that our team scores 2.76g/gp in the playoffs vs. 3.61g/gp regular season (past three seasons) is normal because the leafs continue to get "goalied" in the playoffs, vs the Oilers scoring at a rate of 3.67g/gp in the playoffs vs 3.68g/gp regular season (past three seasons) because they somehow face worse goaltending in the playoffs vs. regular season? Is that the narrative you're going with? I'm just talking about goals, not points as you are, since we are talking about goals and SV%. Edmonton scores at a slightly higher rate in the playoffs vs. our group falling off a cliff.

I'm not using the sample size you are just for the sake of not investing a lot of time into this. However, three full regular seasons and playoffs should be enough of a sample size to see that something isn't working quite right with this group. The past three years they have been abysmal together post season, posting a combined 16 goals in 25 playoff games. Thats what 24M gets you in the post season, .64g/gp? McDavid does .70g/gp on his own! Yet somehow people are trying to justify paying 13+mil for Marner. It simply doesn't compute for me, and this excuse of "The leafs face the best goaltending in the league every year" is getting old, because it just isn't true. Maybe our mix of guys makes it *appear* as though they are facing the best goaltending in the league every year.

 

[Americanadian]

"I think I can move my parents and my wife's parents or fly them out every week to wherever I play with the extra $2 million a year plus the tax savings, thanks"

I don't think it'll factor in much.

I think the fact that he was a diehard Leafs fan growing up and probably loves playing for his hometown team despite the the lunatic fans will likely have a bigger impact.

That would so wildly inconvenient. Especially when we’re talking about a difference in dollars that won’t be spent for generations.

Was it better when the team had no talent to overpay? Back then they spent high dollars on those low end guys like Jeff Finger and Colby Armstrong. Was that a winning culture?

You could be stingy with everyone. Then you'd have a team that no one wants to play for and bleeds talent every year.

I'm not saying that if I was at the negotiating table I'd hand him a blank cheque. Of course I want the extension to be team-friendly. But letting Marner and Tavares walk just for cap space doesn't set this team up for a Cup win any time soon.

“The Leafs were once bad so the fans should be content with mediocre” is such a bad take to force on other people.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think the playoffs will be a big factor. If they have success I see a happy ending for all

Absolutely.

I just don’t see why both sides want to continue together if it is another first round exit.

 

[Confucius]

Let him walk at anything over 11, cap space is good. It’s not at all like it was when there was no cap. Back then it was bad to get nothing for a player.

 

[Jojalu]

Absolutely.

I just don’t see why both sides want to continue together if it is another first round exit.

With Mckenzie and now Dregs saying the possibility is now he might test the market it seems like another playoff failure might lead to parting ways.

If the Leafs end up letting Marner walk they had better hit a HR with the 11-13 million they would save. Plus if you are willing to let him walk, why not let JT walk and go for a soft re-tool.

 

[leafan11]

For once I’d like the Leafs to leak the offer to the media, call his bluff.

 

[Sypher04]

Let him walk at anything over 11, cap space is good. It’s not at all like it was when there was no cap. Back then it was bad to get nothing for a player.

Expecting him to take less than Willy is just not realistic at all

 

[banks]

...

“The Leafs were once bad so the fans should be content with mediocre” is such a bad take to force on other people.

If you think Marner is mediocre, I don't know what to tell you.

I know the playoff success hasn't come to frustration. But that doesn't mean every player here is doomed to eternal playoff failure. Marner is probably going to win a Cup somewhere. He sure came through in the clutch at the 4 nations. And Ovie only ever got past round 2 once in his career. Winning a Cup is hard.

 

[arso40]

Ok, team wide SV% being that low means our depth is more able to score the majority of goals vs. our two superstars (Marner and Matthews), vs the Oilers depth scoring significantly less because their superstars can feast on poor goal tending? Shouldn't the ratios of goals still be somewhat consistent if our superstars are living up to their contracts?

Meaning, when I look at Mcdavid + Drai, they score 35% of their teams goals post season the last 3 years. Matthews + Marner score 24% of our teams goals over the past three years. Shouldn't they be relatively close if your theory is correct? How are our depth players able to generate a higher percentage of goals vs. Oilers depth if ours are facing "vezina" goaltending every year? Shouldn't it be tougher for our depth to score if that's the case?

I mean when you put marner in that category and leave Willy out it’s kinda misleading for one

 

[Gary Nylund]

If you think Marner is mediocre, I don't know what to tell you.

I know the playoff success hasn't come to frustration. But that doesn't mean every player here is doomed to eternal playoff failure. Marner is probably going to win a Cup somewhere. He sure came through in the clutch at the 4 nations. And Ovie only ever got past round 2 once in his career. Winning a Cup is hard.

It's not about winning a cup, it's that after 86 games, Marner goes from scoring at a ~100 point pace to scoring at a ~40 point pace. If after all these years that's not a concern for you and you're fine with paying him top dollar because he's "not doomed", I don't know what to tell you except brace yourself for yet another decade of irrelevance.

In order to get past round 2, you have to first get to round 2. Just thought I'd throw that in there, do you see why?