Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[notbias]

I respectfully disagree with your opinion.

- In the 4nations. He had 1 great game and 1-3 meh games. There is a reason he was demoted. One game doesn't change history.

He hasn't had a 100 point season and with each game this season creeps closer to being just 100 point player or less. Meanwhile Kucherov is once again pacing over 120. Additionally Marner has just 7 5v5 goals.... tying him with a boatload of players between 173rd-216th in the league (a list that includes Nick Robertson).

When is the last time any Leaf said..
Wow Marner looked dominant that game?

"One game doesn't change history"

"He was 'demoted' for one game, this is all that matters!"

 

[francis246]

"One game doesn't change history"

"He was 'demoted' for one game, this is all that matters!"

 

[TopCheeseShotta]

I know that's what came out of his mouth, but I dont think Bob meant he had inside info into Mitch testing Free Agency. We can safely back up from the ledge on this one, y'all. lolll

Bob is at the cottage more than the rink these days. He just shows up for that TSN and Quiz money from time to time, and said as much himself. He ain't about that Insider life anymore. He actually clarified, calling himself an "outsider" in the same segment.

If he does leverage Free Agency at all to boost his AAV, him and his people are just blood-sucking sharks, man.

 

[arso40]

Aside from the on ice stuff congrats to marner becoming a father looks like he’s having a little magic

 

[Legion34]

again. I have no idea why we let him go to UFA. If he didn’t want to be here. Why not let him pick his team in the summer.

Why would you dig your heels in and fight to stay and refuse to waive just to go?

He is giving up being the all time leading points player on his hometown team? His wife just announced she is pregnant and they are leaving?

Doesn’t make a lot of sense. But if he does it. Ok I guess.

We should have traded him for players in the summer. I really have no idea why he would leave this summer and not last????

 

[BraveCanadian]

Couple of fairly quiet games since coming back, although that one defensive play last night was outstanding.

 

[Legion34]

I know that's what came out of his mouth, but I dont think Bob meant he had inside info into Mitch testing Free Agency. We can safely back up from the ledge on this one, y'all. lolll

Bob is at the cottage more than the rink these days. He just shows up for that TSN and Quiz money from time to time, and said as much himself. He ain't about that Insider life anymore. He actually clarified, calling himself an "outsider" in the same segment.

If he does leverage Free Agency at all to boost his AAV, him and his people are just blood-sucking sharks, man.

I didn’t see it, but if the question was
“Will he sign before the end of the season”

That’s different then. “Go to free agency”

Reinhart/guenzel didn’t sign before the end of the season.

Stamkos went to free agency

 

[ToneDog]

Gotta cut 16 and 34 some slack since returning from the 4 Nations. Marner has no points in 3 straight games. Last time as a Leaf was Nov 2023.

Now on pace for 23 goals and 80 assists. Does not scream $13-14m player to me. Let him walk if he does not soften. Said it before and will say it again, he needs a closer to be successful. $13-14m players do not need a closer and bring more than his 80 assists and 200 foot soft game.

 

[hullsy47]

I’m inclined to agree with you. I think if Marner was to take Nylander’s cap % or something close to it, it would be a win win for everyone.

If the leafs ever had leverage its now
If this was colorado or carolina they d be pushing to have marner signed now
the NHPA would like marner to set a new bar but didnt he already do that ? With his last contract
Take your 14 million to utah san jose or chicago

 

[TheDoldrums]

My wife works with someone whose daughter was a bridesmaid in their wedding. FWIW, Marners wife is extremely happy and set on their doctors here. She doesn't want to leave. Have to think they want to raise the family here around all their friends and family too.

 

[notDatsyuk]

"One game doesn't change history"

"He was 'demoted' for one game, this is all that matters!"

More important than his being demoted for one game is that he played much better the next game.

Maybe Berube should take note, as Mitch has done pretty much nothing in the two games back.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It is important but it is almost never a factor in contract negotiations.
It seems silly, but players get paid for the 82 gsme regular season. A lot of it has to do with the fact half the league doesn't make the playoffs and players have little to no control if they do.
If a team wants to tank, how are you going to value a contract for anyone on that team? Bedard has no chance of making the playoffs in his ELC. He won't get paid less because of it

The regular season is also a better comparative sample because teams and players are experiencing similar things over bigger samples. The same isn't true in the playoffs, where teams and players experience very different things. As much as some people like to pretend that more playoff points = better playoff performer, teams know that it's not quite that simple. Even on just the offensive side.

If we look at the top 20 active career playoff producers against a goalie (25+ GP), we can see the significant differences in opposing goaltending, and how it has impacted production.

Rank. Player - Playoff P/GP (against a goalie) against SV% of goaltending team faced
1. McDavid - 1.51 P/GP against 0.896 goaltending
2. Draisaitl - 1.42 P/GP against 0.896 goaltending
3. MacKinnon - 1.22 P/GP against 0.901 goaltending
4. Rantanen - 1.14 P/GP against 0.902 goaltending
5. Kucherov - 1.10 P/GP against 0.909 goaltending
6. Bouchard - 1.09 P/GP against 0.888 goaltending
7. Makar - 1.07 P/GP against 0.901 goaltending
8. Crosby - 1.06 P/GP against 0.911 goaltending
9. Eichel - 1.03 P/GP against 0.885 goaltending
10. Malkin - 1.01 P/GP against 0.911 goaltending
11. Point - 0.99 P/GP against 0.908 goaltending
12. Kane - 0.95 P/GP against 0.911 goaltending
13. Pastrnak - 0.94 P/GP against 0.913 goaltending
14. Ovechkin - 0.93 P/GP against 0.918 goaltending
15. Landeskog - 0.91 P/GP against 0.901 goaltending
16. Guentzel - 0.90 P/GP against 0.910 goaltending
17. Q Hughes - 0.87 P/GP against 0.893 goaltending
18. Marner - 0.86 P/GP against 0.922 goaltending
19. Aho - 0.86 P/GP against 0.920 goaltending
20. Matthews - 0.85 P/GP against 0.922 goaltending

 

[notDatsyuk]

again. I have no idea why we let him go to UFA. If he didn’t want to be here. Why not let him pick his team in the summer.

Why would you dig your heels in and fight to stay and refuse to waive just to go?

He is giving up being the all time leading points player on his hometown team? His wife just announced she is pregnant and they are leaving?

Doesn’t make a lot of sense. But if he does it. Ok I guess.

We should have traded him for players in the summer. I really have no idea why he would leave this summer and not last????

Just as a big 'for instance', say he wants to go to Vancouver and they are willing to trade Quinn Hughes even for him.

If you were him, would you rather be traded and go to a Vancouver without Hughes, or wait and go as a free agent to a Vancouver with Hughes?

 

[hullsy47]

My wife works with someone whose daughter was a bridesmaid in their wedding. FWIW, Marners wife is extremely happy and set on their doctors here. She doesn't want to leave. Have to think they want to raise the family here around all their friends and family too.

Again then why hasnt he signed

 

[mclaren55]

The regular season is also a better comparative sample because teams and players are experiencing similar things over bigger samples. The same isn't true in the playoffs, where teams and players experience very different things. As much as some people like to pretend that more playoff points = better playoff performer, teams know that it's not quite that simple. Even on just the offensive side.

If we look at the top 20 active career playoff producers against a goalie (25+ GP), we can see the significant differences in opposing goaltending, and how it has impacted production.

Rank. Player - Playoff P/GP (against a goalie) against SV% of goaltending team faced
1. McDavid - 1.51 P/GP against 0.896 goaltending
2. Draisaitl - 1.42 P/GP against 0.896 goaltending
3. MacKinnon - 1.22 P/GP against 0.901 goaltending
4. Rantanen - 1.14 P/GP against 0.902 goaltending
5. Kucherov - 1.10 P/GP against 0.909 goaltending
6. Bouchard - 1.09 P/GP against 0.888 goaltending
7. Makar - 1.07 P/GP against 0.901 goaltending
8. Crosby - 1.06 P/GP against 0.911 goaltending
9. Eichel - 1.03 P/GP against 0.885 goaltending
10. Malkin - 1.01 P/GP against 0.911 goaltending
11. Point - 0.99 P/GP against 0.908 goaltending
12. Kane - 0.95 P/GP against 0.911 goaltending
13. Pastrnak - 0.94 P/GP against 0.913 goaltending
14. Ovechkin - 0.93 P/GP against 0.918 goaltending
15. Landeskog - 0.91 P/GP against 0.901 goaltending
16. Guentzel - 0.90 P/GP against 0.910 goaltending
17. Q Hughes - 0.87 P/GP against 0.893 goaltending
18. Marner - 0.86 P/GP against 0.922 goaltending
19. Aho - 0.86 P/GP against 0.920 goaltending
20. Matthews - 0.85 P/GP against 0.922 goaltending

Honest question; Doesn't the fact that these guys have a lower PPG inflate goalies SV%, and vica versa? Since McDavid and Drai are so good at scoring, it stands to reason the goalies facing them would have a lower SV%, no?

 

[francis246]

again. I have no idea why we let him go to UFA. If he didn’t want to be here. Why not let him pick his team in the summer.

Why would you dig your heels in and fight to stay and refuse to waive just to go?

He is giving up being the all time leading points player on his hometown team? His wife just announced she is pregnant and they are leaving?

Doesn’t make a lot of sense. But if he does it. Ok I guess.

We should have traded him for players in the summer. I really have no idea why he would leave this summer and not last????

This is why I noted, people shouldn’t be quick to jump to the Marner camp leaking that info. Given his wife’s pregnancy, the good will he just built with some fans from the 4 nations, why would his camp leak that to Bob McKenzie right now? The timing makes no sense from his side of things. Feels like someone within the team provided that information to Bob. Maybe that’s the feeling the team has right now because negotiations aren’t going as smoothly.

 

[GoonieFace]

This is why I noted, people shouldn’t be quick to jump to the Marner camp leaking that info. Given his wife’s pregnancy, the good will he just built with some fans from the 4 nations, why would his camp leak that to Bob McKenzie right now? The timing makes no sense from his side of things. Feels like someone within the team provided that information to Bob. Maybe that’s the feeling the team has right now because negotiations aren’t going as smoothly.

It’s also entirely possible that the Leafs have no interest in signing him long term

 

[arso40]

It’s also entirely possible that the Leafs have no interest in signing him long term

Or are waiting until after the playoffs

 

[BraveCanadian]

If the leafs ever had leverage its now

???

 

[arso40]

???

Maybe rantanen being a free agent as well ?

 

[BraveCanadian]

The regular season is also a better comparative sample because teams and players are experiencing similar things over bigger samples. The same isn't true in the playoffs, where teams and players experience very different things. As much as some people like to pretend that more playoff points = better playoff performer, teams know that it's not quite that simple. Even on just the offensive side.

If we look at the top 20 active career playoff producers against a goalie (25+ GP), we can see the significant differences in opposing goaltending, and how it has impacted production.

Rank. Player - Playoff P/GP (against a goalie) against SV% of goaltending team faced
1. McDavid - 1.51 P/GP against 0.896 goaltending
2. Draisaitl - 1.42 P/GP against 0.896 goaltending
3. MacKinnon - 1.22 P/GP against 0.901 goaltending
4. Rantanen - 1.14 P/GP against 0.902 goaltending
5. Kucherov - 1.10 P/GP against 0.909 goaltending
6. Bouchard - 1.09 P/GP against 0.888 goaltending
7. Makar - 1.07 P/GP against 0.901 goaltending
8. Crosby - 1.06 P/GP against 0.911 goaltending
9. Eichel - 1.03 P/GP against 0.885 goaltending
10. Malkin - 1.01 P/GP against 0.911 goaltending
11. Point - 0.99 P/GP against 0.908 goaltending
12. Kane - 0.95 P/GP against 0.911 goaltending
13. Pastrnak - 0.94 P/GP against 0.913 goaltending
14. Ovechkin - 0.93 P/GP against 0.918 goaltending
15. Landeskog - 0.91 P/GP against 0.901 goaltending
16. Guentzel - 0.90 P/GP against 0.910 goaltending
17. Q Hughes - 0.87 P/GP against 0.893 goaltending
18. Marner - 0.86 P/GP against 0.922 goaltending
19. Aho - 0.86 P/GP against 0.920 goaltending
20. Matthews - 0.85 P/GP against 0.922 goaltending

Pretty big problem with this sort of analysis though.

Is the goaltending better because the attacking players are worse or vice versa? No way to tell.

 

[hullsy47]

???

I mean if he wants to be a leaf and raise his family here
He can give his team a better chance to win
Sign before the trade deadline

 

[notbias]

More important than his being demoted for one game is that he played much better the next game.

Maybe Berube should take note, as Mitch has done pretty much nothing in the two games back.

It's only cause it is the regular season, Mitch is a big game player now.

But no, it's two games after a high-intensity tourny, not a big deal yet.

Also, I think the issue was Reinhart, not Marner for that line originally.

Pretty big problem with this sort of analysis though.

Is the goaltending better because the attacking players are worse or vice versa? No way to tell.

It doesn't help that the Leafs have mostly played defensive teams or teams with Vezina-level goaltending.

It's not an excuse, they still need to find a way to score, but there have been no easy teams to score on.

 

[Confucius]

Gotta cut 16 and 34 some slack since returning from the 4 Nations. Marner has no points in 3 straight games. Last time as a Leaf was Nov 2023.

Now on pace for 23 goals and 80 assists. Does not scream $13-14m player to me. Let him walk if he does not soften. Said it before and will say it again, he needs a closer to be successful. $13-14m players do not need a closer and bring more than his 80 assists and 200 foot soft game.

Sort of like play a tough first 4 playoff games and they need a break. All things considered it fits their past MO and makes sense actually…

 

[notDatsyuk]

It's only cause it is the regular season, Mitch is a big game player now.

But no, it's two games after a high-intensity tourny, not a big deal yet.

Also, I think the issue was Reinhart, not Marner for that line originally.

If it was only these two games, I wouldn't bother, but he and Matthews don't seem to have ever been held responsible for a string of poor games, in the way that others like Nylander (who also played in the tourney, although not the final, and didn't seem to lose a step) have.