Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[Menzinger]

That would be 13.09% this summer. Marner caliber players tend to get 14-16%.

Which playmaking wingers have gotten contracts in that range?

 

[Antropovsky]

I already said, if i didnt watch it didnt matter.

And youre missing the point again... so I'll repeat...

The only time they found magic was with Mitch on Line 1 in Game 1 (overtime winner) and Game 4 (setup of OT winner).

What was Reinhart's magic moment again..?? Anyway - irrelevant..

My repeated point continued =

Mitch at 13-14.9%%%%% is:
Expected
Gonna happen
And fair market value.

Rest my friend. It's all good.

"If I didn't watch, it didn't matter."

'The only time they found magic."

Yea...this says enough...you have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[IPS]

I think in most cases you’re right, but with Gaudreau you couldn’t be more wrong.

"I’m incredibly grateful to be an NHL player, and to be making the salary that I make. I don’t take it for granted for a second. Which contributes to why money was not the main deciding factor for me. But the idea that Meredith and I can just fly to and from home, or have our loved ones visit no problem, because we have money? It’s not that simple." Gaudreau explained. "Our families still work full time. Our siblings have their own lives. Our nieces and nephews are in school. It’s a tough trip for folks to make, and it’s only gotten tougher with the pandemic. And it’s hard for us to get out East as well. It’s things like missing your grandfather’s funeral, or having very sick relatives, that make the distance so painful — and you remember that feeling when planning out your future for your family."

"I know stuff like this is what every player tells a fan base when they leave … but it’s like I said: My story isn’t the story of every player. Not every player was a five-six, 130-pound USHLer when one of the NHL’s most storied franchises took a chance on him."

Direct quotes from Gaudreau (RIP), the guy was going to the east coast. Again, I agree with you when it comes to most players. But with Gaudreau, it was pretty clear that the incident with his father’s health in 2018 was a huge driving force in his UFA decision. He turned down more money from Calgary and even acknowledged it in his quotes. He acknowledged he legitimately turned down a 8 year deal.

"...For what it’s worth, I didn’t know for sure what I wanted to do up until the last hours of the last day. Man, even after I turned down the eight-year deal from Calgary, I still thought about going back and trying to work on a seven-year deal to stay. It was all on the table for the entire process. Maybe that seems messy … but life is messy, you know?"

You are not arguing the point I'm trying to make here.

I'm not sitting here arguing where Johnny wanted to go. I'm saying that if they really did play their negotiations like that (signing July 14th so they clearly didn't go on too long) then that was incredibly foolish to the point where it's highly unlikely. And New Jersey isn't even that close to Columbus - there's atleast 11 other teams within around that same driving distance just by a quick look on google maps. And that's not even necessary to my argument either - his camp DID NOT just make it known that they're only isolating themselves to one specific area, as that has horrible implications for negotiations.

I'm sorry dude but I'm just not buying it. There are many, many other perfectly valid reasons to believe Gaudreau did not get as much as people thought he would.

 

[Smif]

He has a young family (3 young children) and it's a glorified all star game. This wasn't the real olympics.

I am in the same.boat as him, I have three boys and I drive them to school at 8am every morning. I was up until 130ish enjoying the moment. It's fine that others have different priorities but this is Canadian best on best hockey which we haven't since 2014. I thought him of all people would be a diehard fan of this tourney. Nylander makes a bit more sense with not having his team in it.

 

[francis246]

You are not arguing the point I'm trying to make here.

I'm not sitting here arguing where Johnny wanted to go. I'm saying that if they really did play their negotiations like that (signing July 14th so they clearly didn't go on too long) then that was incredibly foolish to the point where it's highly unlikely. And New Jersey isn't even that close to Columbus - there's atleast 11 other teams within around that same driving distance just by a quick look on google maps. And that's not even necessary to my argument either - his camp DID NOT just make it known that they're only isolating themselves to one specific area, as that has horrible implications for negotiations.

I'm sorry dude but I'm just not buying it. There are many, many other perfectly valid reasons to believe Gaudreau did not get as much as people thought he would.

I don’t think Gaudreau gave a shit whether it was good or bad for negotiations. The quotes I shared with you make it clear. Something traumatic happened in his family and he did not want to chance not being able to be there. His dad almost died and he wasn’t there when it happened. His grandparents died and he wasn’t there for it. That is going to drastically change your life perspective.

You don’t have to buy it, if you don’t want. It doesn’t change the fact that he’s said what he’s said

He ended up signing in CBJ after PHI tried to move money but couldn’t. He said some players from CBJ called him and convinced him he and his wife would love it and that the area is good for kids. Went for a visit and they fell in love with CBJ.

 

[Antropovsky]

Which playmaking wingers have gotten contracts in that range?

His last contract was unprecedented, might as well make this one too.

According to this sportsnet article in 2019... only 3 TFA's EVER signed for more than he did and richest ever to a RW

Mitch Marner Contract Resets RFA Market:

Among all active contracts, only three RFAs have signed for more than Marner’s 13.4 per cent of the salary cap. Centre Auston Matthews (14.6 per cent) is third on the list for his contract signed on Feb. 5 last season. Centre Connor McDavid (16.7) is second for a contract signed by the arguable world’s best player in July of 2017. And leading the way is Alex Ovechkin (16.8), the player who may one day pass Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record, for a 13-year deal he signed all the way back in 2008 that was done under a different CBA and would be illegal today. In other words, under the current agreement, Marner’s new contract is the richest given to an RFA winger.

Claude Giroux: 12.9 per cent of the cap at time of signing (July 4, 2013)
Contract: Eight years, $8.275 million AAV

The most significant difference between Giroux’s contract and Marner’s is that this was his third deal. In between Giroux’s ELC and long-term extension, he and the Flyers signed a three-year bridge deal. The eight-year commitment was also signed a year before the bridge deal expired and after three consecutive seasons in which Giroux averaged 0.93 points per game.


Nikita Kucherov: 11.9 per cent of the cap at time of signing (July 10, 2018)
Contract: Eight years, $9.5 million AAV

In terms of recency, this is the best comparable for Marner and really shows how unprecedented his contract is for wingers. But even still, Kucherov and the Lightning had previously signed a three-year bridge contract before this long-term extension. This eight-year deal was also signed a year before the bridge contract expired and after two incredible seasons of production: Kucherov had just finished posting 100 points when he agreed to this contract, which followed an 85-point campaign. The coming 2019-20 season will therefore be the first of Kucherov’s eight-year pact with the Lightning and it already looks like a steal. Keep in mind, the tax rate in Florida was a factor into keeping this AAV low.



Patrick Kane: 11.09 per cent of the cap at time of signing (Dec. 2, 2009)
Contract: Five years, $6.3 million
Though this contract is no longer active, it is a true comparable and again expresses how much Marner’s contract stands out. Signed midway through the final season of his three-year entry-level contract, Kane’s five-year deal was a precursor to the contract he’s currently on that made him the highest-paid winger in the game for four years until Panarin (and now Marner) signed. Over the life of this five-year pact, Kane and the Blackhawks won two Stanley Cups, but they have only won three playoff games since his cap hit was upped to its current $10.5 million. In his first three NHL seasons leading up to his first post-ELC contract, Kane scored 72, 70 and 88 points and won the Calder Trophy.

 

[TopCheeseShotta]

"If I didn't watch, it didn't matter."

'The only time they found magic."

Yea...this says enough...you have no idea what you're talking about.

Deflect, deflect....

I'll repeat the only point AGAIN:

Mitch at 13-14.9%%%%% is:
Expected
Gonna happen
And fair market value.

Deal widdit.

 

[IPS]

Which playmaking wingers have gotten contracts in that range?

This argument's already been done.

Precisely one - Panarin. That's it. Nobody else has even come close.

I don’t think Gaudreau gave a shit whether it was good or bad for negotiations. The quotes I shared with you make it clear. Something traumatic happened in his family and he did not want to chance not being able to be there. His dad almost died and he wasn’t there when it happened. His grandparents died and he wasn’t there for it. That is going to drastically change your life perspective.

You don’t have to buy it, if you don’t want. It doesn’t change the fact that he’s said what he’s said

He ended up signing in CBJ after PHI tried to move money but couldn’t. He said some players from CBJ called him and convinced him he and his wife would love it and that the area is good for kids. Went for a visit and they fell in love with CBJ.

Being in an emotional situation he left everything to his camp, and from the way I'm trying to see it through your perspective - they must have done one horribly awful job getting Johnny's first major UFA contract negotiated. Fire-able offense really.

 

[ITM]

Just saying:

The feature with Crosby and the part where he mentioned taking less because he wanted to win…I hope some of that sensibility, and the feeling of winning, made an impact on Marner.

 

[arso40]

The thing is, Marner can control a game. The problem with him isn't necessarily top end ability to be a difference maker, it's the fact that he's gotten neutralized in big moments and his ability to step up has been called into question... but yeah, if you want to define him based on Mackinnon, McDavid, Crosby I don't think he's at their level.

In the playoffs?

 

[francis246]

This argument's already been done.

Precisely one - Panarin. That's it. Nobody else has even come close.


Being in an emotional situation he left everything to his camp, and from the way I'm trying to see it through your perspective - they must have done one horribly awful job getting Johnny's first major UFA contract negotiated. Fire-able offense really.

Lmfao what? The player is happy? He’s close to home (1 hour flight), and still got paid. Also if you listen to the tim and Sid interview he does, it didn’t sound like he left everything to his camp. Sounds like Johnny and Meredith were heavily involved in the process. I know it’s a shocker considering our guys, but he’s an anomaly, money wasn’t a driving force.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Direct quotes from Gaudreau (RIP), the guy was going to the east coast. Again, I agree with you when it comes to most players. But with Gaudreau, it was pretty clear that the incident with his father’s health in 2018 was a huge driving force in his UFA decision. He turned down more money from Calgary and even acknowledged it in his quotes. He acknowledged he legitimately turned down a 8 year deal.

It's really weird that you'd say this, when the next paragraph in the same post of yours completely refutes the notion that staying in Calgary was out of the question.

"...For what it’s worth, I didn’t know for sure what I wanted to do up until the last hours of the last day. Man, even after I turned down the eight-year deal from Calgary, I still thought about going back and trying to work on a seven-year deal to stay. It was all on the table for the entire process. Maybe that seems messy … but life is messy, you know?"

In his own words, it couldn't be more clear.

 

[Stephen]

And the year before that - got 99 points - along with dealing with a horrible line mate situation in Calgary, oh and also dealing with the fossil of Daryl Sutter destroying calgary's offensive sytem.

For obsessing about context you'll conveniently ignore all of the context for this one though, pretty predictable.

Yeah, whatever shortcomings Johnny Gaudreau had as a player he did have some real high end offensive seasons along with some inconsistent years.

Out of respect for the Johnny Hockey, I really don't want to see his memory dragged around as a contractual comp for Mitch negotiations. I think there's a line there that shouldn't be crossed.

 

[Stephen]

In the playoffs?

Yeah of course he can control a playoff game. It's still just a hockey game. He just needs to learn to not get pushed out of the competition and I think that's what the 4 Nations experience is supposed to be, an opportunity to make those big plays in tight games when so much is on the line.

 

[arso40]

Yeah of course he can control a playoff game. It's still just a hockey game. He just needs to learn to not get pushed out of the competition and I think that's what the 4 Nations experience is supposed to be, an opportunity to make those big plays in tight games when so much is on the line.

So then he can’t but he has the potential to is what your saying then?

 

[Stephen]

So then he can’t but he has the potential to is what your saying then?

It's more of a mental block than a skill problem is what I'm saying.

 

[arso40]

It's more of a mental block than a skill problem is what I'm saying.

Agreed but that doesn’t mean it will happen is what I’m saying

 

[Stephen]

Agreed but that doesn’t mean it will happen is what I’m saying

Oh yeah that's for sure. But it's not an ability problem, it's an intangibles problem, and you don't solve intangibles until you start winning.

 

[Dekes For Days]

And the year before that - got 99 points - along with dealing with a horrible line mate situation in Calgary, oh and also dealing with the fossil of Daryl Sutter destroying calgary's offensive sytem. For obsessing about context you'll conveniently ignore all of the context for this one though, pretty predictable.

I don't think you're really in a place to criticize others when you're ignoring the drastic decline in 2/3 of his most recent sample, and the sustainability of the sample you're pointing at, while making up false claims about why he got the cap hit he did, and directly contradicting his own words.

Yes, four years prior to signing, he had his only other season that came even close to what Marner has consistently done every year. That doesn't erase the red flag. He didn't have horrible linemates, and I'm not really sure how you're claiming the coach neutered him when he was there for Gaudreau's best offensive season, and Gaudreau's point totals plummeted back down once escaping him. Not to mention the fact that Gaudreau was an offense-only player.

 

[arso40]

Oh yeah that's for sure. But it's not an ability problem, it's an intangibles problem, and you don't solve intangibles until you start winning.

I agree would love for him to put it together in the next couple of months but I whole heartedly agree he has the brain and the skill to do it none of our players are relentless hopefully they learn how to be

 

[IPS]

It's really weird that you'd say this, when the next paragraph in the same post of yours completely refutes the notion that staying in Calgary was out of the question.

In his own words, it couldn't be more clear.

Yeah there really is a lot of things that don't add up about the narrative.

At the end of the day the small playmaking winger who has stylistic issues in the playoffs got valued the way he did. Lots were wrong about it.

 

[Stephen]

I don't think you're really in a place to criticize others when you're ignoring the drastic decline in 2/3 of his most recent sample, and the sustainability of the sample you're pointing at, while making up false claims about why he got the cap hit he did, and directly contradicting his own words.

Yes, four years prior to signing, he had his only other season that came even close to what Marner has consistently done every year. That doesn't erase the red flag. He didn't have horrible linemates, and I'm not really sure how you're claiming the coach neutered him when he was there for Gaudreau's best offensive season, and Gaudreau's point totals plummeted back down once escaping him. Not to mention the fact that Gaudreau was an offense-only player.

Out of respect for Johnny Gaudreau's memory, can you try not to speed bag his career to make Marner look superior? It's extremely unnecessary. Some topics really don't require the extra Dekes context, eh.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It's more of a mental block than a skill problem is what I'm saying.

I don't think that's clear at all. But whether it's a mental block, style of play or whatever else. it's been a problem for a very long time. Considering that his first long term deal that made him one of the highest paid players in the world is almost over and he still hasn't figured it out, giving him another mega deal until he shows that he has figured it out is pure insanity.

 

[IPS]

Yeah, whatever shortcomings Johnny Gaudreau had as a player he did have some real high end offensive seasons along with some inconsistent years.

Out of respect for the Johnny Hockey, I really don't want to see his memory dragged around as a contractual comp for Mitch negotiations. I think there's a line there that shouldn't be crossed.

Sure no problem. Won't bring him up anymore.

 

[Stephen]

Sure no problem. Won't bring him up anymore.

Thanks man.

I think we can have our one vs one comparables and go hard in the paint without having to invite negativity on that guy.