Mitch Marner Vs Brady Tkachuk for the future

[Sasha Orlov]

I think Tkachuk gives you a better chance to win tbh

Marner is useless outside the RS

 

[dgibb10]

Not sure why you keep going with this. Yes the % can "look" significant but in terms of raw points, it's ONLY 7 points per season and a season is 82 games... Not the huge deal I thought it would have been before looking

Very simple. So I don't need to answer to your next post if you bring the same point.

7 points a season on the PP alone is very significant. And again, ignoring the massive opportunity difference because again, 140 extra minutes.

The only reason it is even remotely "close" is because Tkachuk has more than 2 hours of extra time on the power play

 

[Joe n]

I think Tkachuk gives you a better chance to win tbh

Marner is useless outside the RS

Why do people keep saying this. He has never even made the playoffs but somehow once he gets there things will change.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Why do people keep saying this. He has never even made the playoffs but somehow once he gets there things will change.

Marner has proven for almost a decade to be useless, so I’d rather roll the dice

What needs to change if he hasn’t played in the playoffs yet?

 

[Joe n]

Marner has proven for almost a decade to be useless, so I’d rather roll the dice

What needs to change if he hasn’t played in the playoffs yet?

It's not much but at least one can help his team make the playoffs. The other one ? If they miss again what will be the excuse in the off season.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

It's not much but at least one can help his team make the playoffs. The other one ? If they miss again what will be the excuse in the off season.

This has nothing to do with which one id take in a vacuum but ok

 

[dgibb10]

Marner has proven for almost a decade to be useless, so I’d rather roll the dice

What needs to change if he hasn’t played in the playoffs yet?

With Mitch Marner on the ice in the playoffs toronto has outscored their opponents 20-11 in the last 3 years. (EV of course).

 

[John Mandalorian]

Just to give the full picture..

You omitted the fact that Marner missed 13 games this year and still outproduced Tkachuk by 11 points. Tkachuk had 52 EV points, Marner had 57.

The previous year when both played full seasons, Marner had 58 EV points to Tkachuk's 54.

Their EV production is roughly the same, let's say a small edge to Tkachuk when you consider goalscoring. But PP production still matters and Marner is decisively better than Tkachuk in that regard

You’re just explaining why Marner is a paper tiger. No one cares if he scores more because, in the end, everyone knows it doesn’t matter.

The guy seriously gets devoured by the biggest moments. When it really matters he looks like the size of a 13 year old out there.

 

[Felidae]

Yes and no. Look at Detroit, Buffalo, New jersey... Heck, look at Toronto before Matthews, Marner and Nylander. Missed the playoffs 7 straight years and 10 years out of 11!

I said in 2020-21 that the Sens wouldn't go anywhere with Pierre Dorion at the helm. To me, he was the worst GM in NHL history (yes worse than Milbury) and he kept DJ Smith too long, a really nice guy but who shouldn't be a head coach. They would probably still be in no man's land if Melnyk was still the owner. The team sale allowed to finally move on to a new era and new management so they now have a chance to move forward.

7 years is not always "one hell of a long rebuild" but in Ottawa's case, they could have built something really special and much faster as they had an incredible wealth for trade when they decided to rebuild. Karlsson was 27 y/o, Duchene was 28 y/o, Mark Stone was 26 y/o, Pageau was 26 y/o, Hoffman was 28 y/o, etc. Plus, they already had Chabot, Batherson, Formenton, Nick Paul, etc in their prospect pool

Dorion squandered/wasted a lot of time and rebuild potential. I have criticized him/them for years.



Damn, that's all? I thought the gap would have been bigger. Marner is the QB playmaker, Tkachuk is just a front net presence so of course Marner should get more points as he feeds 4 different guys including the best goal scorer in the NHL...



I don't see what your post is adding to the full picture... If you read all my posts in this thread, all of this has been painted already.

The point is when you consider all other factors (also already brought up in post #45 : age, contract status, cost, type of player, physical frame, goal scoring ability, intimidation factor, etc.), the small difference in production is not enough to offset it. Unless you're really deprived of playmaking talent for the PP. But I'm satisfied in that regard with Stutzle, Batherson, Giroux, Chabot, Sanderson, etc

It's not that small of a difference, but we'll probably agree to disagree on that.

Marner is also a better two way player though. Just this year he's 44th (2 min) among forwards in SHTOI. As far as first line forwards go he's one of the better PKers in the league. I can't even find Tkachuk in the top 200, and judging by his nonexistent SH stats, I assume he doesn't play much SH, if at all.

 

[Felidae]

You’re just explaining why Marner is a paper tiger. No one cares if he scores more because, in the end, everyone knows it doesn’t matter.

The guy seriously gets devoured by the biggest moments. When it really matters he looks like the size of a 13 year old out there.

I get it. He's been really disappointing not just statistically, but eye test wise for the majority of his playoff career

But the thing is, it's not like he's never had a good series.

He was pretty good in the 2022-23 playoff run. Lead the team in scoring with 14 points in 11 games, The 2nd round he didn't do much but that goes for the rest of the team (and the series in general was low scoring)

2017-18 was also pretty good. 9 points in 7 games when the next closest teammate had 5 (and it was Patrick Marleau..)

Again, unfortunately the bad runs outweigh the good. But when a player has the talent and has shown the ability before.. well, I wouldn't bet on him being a massive PO disappointment his entire career, not to mention you need to be able to get your team in the POs to begin with. Marner has been the better regular season performer for his entire career.

Lastly, I think it's faulty to assume Brady's archetype will automatically do good in the POs.. just look at his dad for instance, a playoff disappointment. Even Matthew Tkachuk, despite his excellent run in 2022-23, still has very similar stats to Marner. He was also a PO disappointment.. until he wasn't. All it takes is a good lengthy run to change people's minds.

 

[John Mandalorian]

I get it. He's been really disappointing not just statistically, but eye test wise for the majority of his playoff career

But the thing is, it's not like he's never had a good series.

He was pretty good in the 2022-23 playoff run. Lead the team in scoring with 14 points in 11 games, The 2nd round he didn't do much but that goes for the rest of the team (and the series in general was low scoring)

2017-18 was also pretty good. 9 points in 7 games when the next closest teammate had 5 (and it was Patrick Marleau..)

Again, unfortunately the bad runs outweigh the good. But when a player has the talent and has shown the ability before.. well, I wouldn't bet on him being a massive PO disappointment his entire career, not to mention you need to be able to get your team in the POs to begin with. Marner has been the better regular season performer for his entire career.

Lastly, I think it's faulty to assume Brady's archetype will automatically do good in the POs.. just look at his dad for instance, a playoff disappointment. Even Matthew Tkachuk, despite his excellent run in 2022-23, still has very similar stats to Marner. He was also a PO disappointment.. until he wasn't. All it takes is a good lengthy run to change people's minds.

Sorry but take someone like Nichushkin. Look at his playoffs in 2022 and his first round in 2024. His four rounds in 2022 and his first round last year is better than anything Marner has ever done. Yes, he let the team down by his sudden absence in 23 and 24. But Marner routinely lets his team down while being physically present. Nichushkin makes 6.25 while Marner makes 10.9, yet Nichushkin still manages to be more impactful

Nichushkin and B Tkachuk aren’t the same player, granted, But if you ask most to guess, Tkachuk is closer to Nichushkin than he is to Marner. Landeskog, who makes 7 M is/was an even better example of this.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I think Tkachuk gives you a better chance to win tbh

Marner is useless outside the RS

How can a player that's never been to the playoffs give you a better chance to win? that is literally impossible

 

[Sasha Orlov]

How can a player that's never been to the playoffs give you a better chance to win? that is literally impossible

Is this a serious question

 

[the]

Brady Tkachuk without a doubt. Big, physical player that can score goals. Great intangibles, character player. What’s not to like? You win cups with guys like him.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Sorry but take someone like Nichushkin. Look at his playoffs in 2022 and his first round in 2024. His four rounds in 2022 and his first round last year is better than anything Marner has ever done. Yes, he let the team down by his sudden absence in 23 and 24. But Marner routinely lets his team down while being physically present. Nichushkin makes 6.25 while Marner makes 10.9, yet Nichushkin still manages to be more impactful

Nichushkin and B Tkachuk aren’t the same player, granted, But if you ask most to guess, Tkachuk is closer to Nichushkin than he is to Marner. Landeskog, who makes 7 M is/was an even better example of this.

I'd rather have the guy that doesn't randomly abandon his team.

Is this a serious question

Yes, you can't win if you can't get to the playoffs and he's never been there.

 

[John Mandalorian]

I'd rather have the guy that doesn't randomly abandon his team.



Yes, you can't win if you can't get to the playoffs and he's never been there.

That’s good. You have a guy who predictably abandons his team and for almost twice as much money.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

I'd rather have the guy that doesn't randomly abandon his team.

Like Marner does every spring?

 

[Joe n]

Is this a serious question

yes. 6 years in the league, no playoffs. But he will be better if he ever makes it into the post season.

 

[MessierII]

I don’t care how many points Marner can get or how he’s elite defensively like all the leafs top scorers somehow are if you can’t do it in the playoffs I just don’t care. Maybe Brady struggles in the playoffs too but I know for a fact marner does and Brady can at least be a disruptive checker worst case. I take Brady on that alone.

 

[Felidae]

Sorry but take someone like Nichushkin. Look at his playoffs in 2022 and his first round in 2024. His four rounds in 2022 and his first round last year is better than anything Marner has ever done. Yes, he let the team down by his sudden absence in 23 and 24. But Marner routinely lets his team down while being physically present. Nichushkin makes 6.25 while Marner makes 10.9, yet Nichushkin still manages to be more impactful

Nichushkin and B Tkachuk aren’t the same player, granted, But if you ask most to guess, Tkachuk is closer to Nichushkin than he is to Marner. Landeskog, who makes 7 M is/was an even better example of this.

Nichuskin is actually a great example.

Prior to age 26 his playoff stats were really bad. He had 9 points in 32 games...

But he turned it around at age 26 onwards and has 26 points in 30 games while being an incredible two way player.

Marner is 27 this upcoming season and again, he has shown the ability to be good in the POs despite the majority of his PO career being disappointing.

Who's to say he cannot also turn it around and have a signature run? He certainly has the talent.

Lastly, as I said you never really know how a player will perform in the POs until it actually happens. In theory Keith Tkachuk's game should have been suited for the playoffs but he underperformed. Matthew Tkachuk was questioned for his playoff performances until very recently. Hell, as a Panthers fan I know there were question marks around Barkov's PO performances and whether he could really carry a team to the SC. He was also a bit disappointing.. but then he finally had a signature run at 28. Sometimes it takes longer for some players, Marner is getting up there in age but there's definitely still time to correct his reputation.

 

[Bileur]

I don't see a legitimate argument for Brady.

It's not offense he's never outscored Marner.

It's not defense Marner has been up for the Selke.

It's not playoff numbers because While Marner's aren't great they at least exist.

What is the objective argument? and no contract is not a legitimate argument, contract has nothing to do with the better player.

If it's not offense because he's never outscored Marner

And it's not defense because Marner has been up for the Selke.

And it's not playoff numbers because Brady has never been there.

What is the objective argument for Tkachuk?

You really can’t imagine why some leafs fans, in spite of Marner’s superior offensive and defensive skill, might be tired of and ready to move on from this:





You can’t imagine that some might wonder if replacing a guy who is allergic to contact with someone who does this:





Might help out a superstar like Matthews who deals with this?



I don’t mind someone preferring Marner but to suggest there isn’t an argument is crazy. There’s an obvious argument. It isn’t about points percentages and expected production.

Nobody can guarantee Brady will produce points in the playoffs but you can bet your life savings he won’t be taking the long route to retrieve pucks to avoid contact. You can also bet that he’ll make life extremely unpleasant for the other team and wear them down over a series.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

You really can’t imagine why some leafs fans, in spite of Marner’s superior offensive and defensive skill, might be tired of and ready to move on from this:





You can’t imagine that some might wonder if replacing a guy who is allergic to contact with someone who does this:





Might help out a superstar like Matthews who deals with this?



I don’t mind someone preferring Marner but to suggest there isn’t an argument is crazy. There’s an obvious argument. It isn’t about points percentages and expected production.

Nobody can guarantee Brady will produce points in the playoffs but you can bet your life savings he won’t be taking the long route to retrieve pucks to avoid contact. You can also bet that he’ll make life extremely unpleasant for the other team and wear them down over a series.

I know It's not all about points that's why I brought up defense to.

Or Did you miss that part?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

The contract status makes this tough. As a regular season player, I'd take Marner all day, as he has that unique ability to make the players around him better while being a better overall player. I think he could be a great playoff guy too, but maybe he needs to be in a smaller market to excel - seems like he's let the pressure get to him at times. We've never seen Brady in the playoffs, but I suspect he'd play well.

I'm a big fan of Brady - I'm in that small minority that would probably take him over Matthew. But he's not as good as Marner. Still, after you account for contracts and the question marks around Marner's ability to step up in the playoffs, I think you have to take Brady.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Nichuskin is actually a great example.

Prior to age 26 his playoff stats were really bad. He had 9 points in 32 games...

But he turned it around at age 26 onwards and has 26 points in 30 games while being an incredible two way player.

Marner is 27 this upcoming season and again, he has shown the ability to be good in the POs despite the majority of his PO career being disappointing.

Who's to say he cannot also turn it around and have a signature run? He certainly has the talent.

Lastly, as I said you never really know how a player will perform in the POs until it actually happens. In theory Keith Tkachuk's game should have been suited for the playoffs but he underperformed. Matthew Tkachuk was questioned for his playoff performances until very recently. Hell, as a Panthers fan I know there were question marks around Barkov's PO performances and whether he could really carry a team to the SC. He was also a bit disappointing.. but then he finally had a signature run at 28. Sometimes it takes longer for some players, Marner is getting up there in age but there's definitely still time to correct his reputation.

Yeah, maybe if they pay Marner 13 million, that will finally be enough for him to take the next step? Come on with the epic excuse making. Marner is well into this. The two years before 2022, Nichushkin was on the third line rebuilding his career. And he certainly wasn’t doing that on a 10.9M contract. This comparison of before 2022 is highly disingenuous.

 

[FinlandPanther]

Marner may be the better player but you don’t win with losers like him who are soft. Tkachuk EASILY.