Stephen
Moderator
- Feb 28, 2002
- 83,096
- 62,008
Marner can be “brilliant” but the problem is he’s also careless and often plays a game that is sometimes very specialized to a certain pace, temperature. In short he’s just extremely expensive.
Mitch Marner "Star" Poll: 2018 Edition
- Thread starter DarkKnight
- Start date
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The Apologist
Apologizing for Leaf garbage since 1979
I think it's pretty safe to say last season was an abberation.
Season 1: 61 points
Season 2: 61 points
Season 4: on pace for 57/58 points
William Nylander - signed Dec 1, 2018 - NHL ppg .68, career high 61 pts - cap hit 6.96
Does 7m get you a 60pt player?
Lets take a look:
Nico Hischier - signed October 18, 2019 - NHL ppg .65, career high 52 pts - cap hit 7.25
Brayden Schenn - signed October 4, 2019 - NHL ppg .64, career high 70 pts - cap hit 6.5
Kyle Connor - signed Sept 28, 2019 - NHL ppg .75, career high 66 pts - cap hit 7.14
Patrick Laine - signed Sept 27, 2019 - NHL ppg .80, career high 70 pts - cap hit 6.75
Matthew Tkachuk - signed Sept 25, 2019 - NHL ppg .78 career high 77 pts - cap hit 7
Brayden Point - signed Sept 23, 2019 - NHL ppg. .86 career high 92 pts - cap hit 6.75
Clayton Keller - signed Sept 4, 2019 - NHL ppg .68 career high 65 pts - cap hit 7.15
Anders Lee - signed July 1, 2019 - NHL ppg .61 career high 62 pts - cap hit 7
Kevin Hayes - signed June 18, 2019 - NHL ppg .59 career high 49 pts - cap hit 7.14
I can keep going but it appears to me that Nylander is pretty much exactly where he should be. This is a mix of both RFA and UFAs and with the obvious exception of Brayden Point who clearly took a huge deal to stay in Tampa (don't tell me taxes dont matter folks).
The Apologist
Apologizing for Leaf garbage since 1979
Mitch on the other hand:
Signed Sept 13, 2019 - NHL ppg .94, career high 94 pts - cap hit 10.89
Jack Eichel - signed October 3, 2017 - NHL ppg .96, career high 82pts - cap hit 10
Nikita Kucherov - signed July 10, 2018 - NHL ppg 1.04, career high 128pts - cap hit 9.5
Tyler Seguin - signed Sept 13, 2018 - NHL ppg .86, career high 78 pts - cap hit 9.85
Mark Stone - signed March 8, 2019 - NHL ppg .83, career high 64 pts - cap hit 9.5
Jeff Skinner - signed June 7, 2019 - NHL ppg .66, career high 63 pts - cap hit 9
Mikko Rantanen - signed Sept 28, 2019 - NHLppg .90, career high 87pts - cap hit 9.25
Overpaid? By about 1M. 9.9 Cap hit and I think he's right where he belongs.
Signed Sept 13, 2019 - NHL ppg .94, career high 94 pts - cap hit 10.89
Jack Eichel - signed October 3, 2017 - NHL ppg .96, career high 82pts - cap hit 10
Nikita Kucherov - signed July 10, 2018 - NHL ppg 1.04, career high 128pts - cap hit 9.5
Tyler Seguin - signed Sept 13, 2018 - NHL ppg .86, career high 78 pts - cap hit 9.85
Mark Stone - signed March 8, 2019 - NHL ppg .83, career high 64 pts - cap hit 9.5
Jeff Skinner - signed June 7, 2019 - NHL ppg .66, career high 63 pts - cap hit 9
Mikko Rantanen - signed Sept 28, 2019 - NHLppg .90, career high 87pts - cap hit 9.25
Overpaid? By about 1M. 9.9 Cap hit and I think he's right where he belongs.
ACC1224
Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
- Aug 19, 2002
- 78,291
- 45,509
Such an amazing player.
Very few players make that pass last night to Tavares.
Very few players make that pass last night to Tavares.
Bomber0104
Registered User
Why are you including centres when comparing contracts to Marner's, and not just RFA ones but UFA's too?
And why are you ignoring term?
Bomber0104
Registered User
Again, you're mixing in centres (both RFA and UFA) and ignoring term.
This isn't an accurate way to compare contracts at all because you're not comparing apples to apples.
I would take everyone of those RFA's over nylander.
Ufa's dont count when talking about an rfa.
The Apologist
Apologizing for Leaf garbage since 1979
.
I'm not ignoring it at all. Hischier makes more than Nylander despite the fairly decent gap in production. I am assuming that this is due to his being a 'center' and one whole extra year.
Schenn is right up there with Nylander again despite the difference in production. Again I will attribute this to his being a 'center' and two extra years.
Connor makes more than Nylander despite less consistent production. I am guessing this is the extra year (He also received a NTC).
Laine is again less consistent, but does look like somewhat of a deal compared to Nylander.
As for Mitch, it is hard to find comparables to him as most in his range are simply not as productive. Rantanen is close (although lower), and is signed to the same 6 years as Mitch. He makes 1.65 M per year less. Given that I provided that Mitch is overpaid by approximately 1M, I don't believe that Mitch being worth .65M more that Rantanen is absurb.
He's worth significantly more than Stone, I would argue more than Seguin, and is not insanely far off Kuch, who is CLEARLY a value deal vs his comparables.
Where are the comparables way off in your opinion?
The Apologist
Apologizing for Leaf garbage since 1979
And I wouldnt.
I take him over Ranta (who is so hot and cold its ridiculous, but for some reason we only remember the hot).
At this point I take him over Nico and Connor, I like the rest of Tkachuk's game so that one would be tough for me. I take him over Keller even if Keller gets two extra years.
I would more than likely take Laine and I clearly take Point on that steal of a contract.
Where do we go from here? I guess we're at a stalemate. I guess his contract isn't so terrible after all.
Beyonder91
RASMUS
What does this even mean?
Marner gets the most forward ice time on the team for a reason... And it's not because of your bad take above.
Beyonder91
RASMUS
You need to factor in the % of salary cap at the time of each of these signings to more accurately compare.
The Apologist
Apologizing for Leaf garbage since 1979
Most of those quoted are within the same 2-3 year timeframe (days really between Marner and Ranta). In general, the cap % doesn't really change the overall picture all that much. Feel free to show otherwise.
Stephen
Moderator
- Feb 28, 2002
- 83,096
- 62,008
Seguin was 2nd in the league in points per game in 2014-15 with 77 in 71 and his career high is 80. Scoring was way harder then. Also Stone is the best defensive winger in the game and his career high is 73 points and he has a season with 62 in 58 games, and Eichel and Kucherov are clearly better than Marner. He's overpaid by roughly 2 million. I don't really have problem with 1 overpayment to be fair but 3 of them all in forwards is a bit of a problem. Nylander is making what he deserves though, even if I don't like how he went about it.
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Other than last years playoffs (he was easily our best the playoffs before though) more games than not he's been our best player since the start of last season, more often than Tavares or Matthews IMO.
Notsince67
Papi and the Lamplighters
- Apr 27, 2018
- 16,376
- 11,467
weighing players who are veterans against players just out of their ELC via ppg is Pravda like propaganda.
The Apologist
Apologizing for Leaf garbage since 1979
Wait. Your telling me you would take nylander over rantanen, Conner, nico and maybe tkachuk? Wow that's almost as bad as that poster who said he would take nylander over drai.
What about pasta? Or arvidsson?
We are not at a stalemate. Nylander is not on that great of a contract.
Paying a rfa 7 mil that can barely produce 60 points playing prime pp minutes and along side one of the leagues best goal scorers is not good value.
I wouldn't even want to pay a ufa 7 mil for under 60 points.
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
Nylander has rarely been given "prime pp usage" other than a few weeks
If you want to use pasta as a benchmark than 99.99 contracts are overpaid. Hes an 11 million dollar player making as little as he is
Yeah, and his production hasn't gone up.
Good job picking one name out of my whole post. What about the other 5 players I mentioned?
Nylander's contract is currently not good value. He has the talent to make it so. Year one was a total waste and this year he is on pace for 57 points. That's not what I would call worth 7 mil.
If you want to compare him to ufa's in order to make his aav more appealing, go ahead. But you arent fooling anyone.
Edit: its funny, I remember during the summer all the posters going on about how every player who gets 15+ points at the whc goes on to have a killer next season. Looks like nylander is breaking that trend.
Wafflewhipper
Registered User
- Jan 18, 2014
- 14,114
- 5,694
Beyonder91
RASMUS
The Oilers didn't make the playoffs the last 2 years. It's a team game.
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
His ppg is still able to flourish fairly broadly based on how things this goes this season. Its silly to claim this is as good as he will be based on games played so far. A couple points in a couple games and hie ppg jumps up considerably
Nylander had been off to a fine start start - especially in terms of 5v5 production
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