Player Discussion Mitch Marner Part Infinity

[Stephen]

Leaf fans and media used to be stupid

They still are

But they used to, too!

Mitch was never treated like the way Mats was on the way out.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Mitch will never play that way.

He can't.
He doesn't have the physical endurance in his frame.

Matthews can't either.

both too fragile.
especially Matthews.

 

[daveleaf]

Leaf fans and media used to be stupid

They still are

But they used to, too!

Matt’s was full of . He didn’t believe in renta players but he was completely open when they were loading up. This tainted his time in Toronto because a few months later he signs in Toronto. This is the same drama situation that Marriner is putting the team through.

 

[keonsbitterness]

What If ?

If Marner were a real team player and wanted to help the Leafs win a Cup, then when asked to waive his NMC for Rantanen he could have accepted.

Then the Leafs would have had Mikko and re-signed him for their playoff run while Marner would have played out this years playoffs in Carolina,

Then Mitch could have come back to Toronto as a UFA hero and re-signed with Toronto, while the Leafs let JT walk and recaptured his $11 mil instead of $10,9 from Marner.

Then Leafs could have had BOTH Rantanen and Marner in next year's line-up and walked away from Tavares instead,

Leafs top 4 wingers Nylander, Knies, Marner and Rantanen.

Ah, the truth comes out. Mess = #1 Marner fanboy.

Just over 2 more weeks until we can stop with this Marner talk finally!

2 weeks? Probably closer to 20 years.

 

[Trapper]

How did trading those guys away work out for those teams?

Worked out great for those guys. Worked out great for Kadri.
So if you’re a Mitch Marner fan, have no fear, he could be going to a better place. But it’s not happening here.
As for us, we need to see what the Tre DNA change is all about.

 

[leafs in five]

Worked out great for those guys. Worked out great for Kadri.
So if you’re a Mitch Marner fan, have no fear, he could be going to a better place. But it’s not happening here.
As for us, we need to see what the Tre DNA change is all about.

I don't care how it worked out for the players at all

 

[Trapper]

I don't care how it worked out for the players at all

How did it work out moving those guys for Calgary/Buffalo? Not well.
How did it work out for San Jose keeping those guys? Not well.

The Shanaplan was a failure. The sum of the core together does not work. You are either the team that has the right base and gets that 1 player, or you are the team giving/losing that player. Our build is the 2nd.

I don’t even believe that a retool around Matthews/Nylander is going to make any difference but people want to believe. After 9 years they are entitled to believe a different way. So you lose one (Marner) to change the DNA around the others. You could have done it earlier by moving Nylander to try and change things up but refused to do anything. So here we are now. Change made by the guy probably wanting to leave anyway.

That’s the hope now. Can you be the Florida/Colorado that makes that 1 change. Marner out, a new 2C/winger/something else complimenting Matthew’s/Nylander.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

The one poster whose username is "Shanawhatplan" is hilarious. I love a clumsy pun/joke that doesn't roll off the tongue at all

 

[leafs in five]

I posted Marner and Matthews advanced stats together and apart from 2021,2023 and 2024. into AI and asked it to provide a 3 paragraph summary of findings.

ENJOY!!

Here it is:
A thorough breakdown of 5v5 advanced metrics over the past three seasons shows that while Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are an effective duo, their individual impacts when separated are not equal. Matthews remains a dominant player even without Marner, maintaining a shot share (SF%) of 54.55% and an expected goals share (xGF%) of 57.44%. These values are well above the 50% break-even line — a crucial benchmark in hockey analytics that indicates whether a player is helping control the pace of play. Elite players typically sustain metrics in the 55–60% range across possession and chance quality stats, and Matthews achieves that even when separated from his most frequent linemate. His high-danger chance share (HDCF%) hovers around 59%, and his high-danger goal share (HDGF%) approaches 56%, confirming that he not only generates sustained offensive zone time but also translates those chances into actual goals. When paired with Marner, Matthews sees modest gains in those areas, especially in HDGF% (64%), but the baseline strength of his play without Marner indicates that he is a self-sufficient driver of elite play.

Marner, in contrast, experiences a marked decline in performance without Matthews, falling below the elite threshold in multiple critical areas. His SF% drops from an excellent 57.99% with Matthews to just 47.84% without — a signal that his teams are being outshot while he’s on the ice. Similarly, his xGF% falls from 60.32% to 48.74%, meaning the team is expected to give up more goals than it produces during his shifts — a sharp red flag for any top-line forward. In advanced stats, a player regularly below 50% in possession and expected goals metrics is not typically viewed as elite, because it indicates the opposition is generating more chances and likely spending more time in the offensive zone. His high-danger goal share (57.78%) remains decent and suggests that some finishing ability or defensive support exists, but without strong underlying shot and chance suppression, it appears more as an outlier than a sign of sustained dominance. These numbers show that Marner, when removed from Matthews, no longer controls the pace or flow of play, which is a defining quality of elite-level forwards.

In summary, Marner’s 5v5 performance without Matthews is not elite — his metrics drop into average or subpar territory by the standards used in advanced hockey analysis. Elite status at even strength requires consistently positive shot differential, high-quality chance generation, and strong expected goal impact, all of which Marner fails to sustain when away from Matthews. Matthews, meanwhile, comfortably maintains or exceeds those standards regardless of linemates, which supports the conclusion that he is the primary engine driving their line’s success. Their partnership works very well — but the data reveals a directional dependency: Matthews lifts Marner far more than Marner lifts Matthews. This distinction is important not just for evaluating individual player value, but also for understanding the construction and performance sustainability of Toronto’s top line.

Thanks

 

[ToneDog]

Willy is certainly overpaid, but he was underpaid before, and it's a bit hard to hold the line when two inferior players on the same team have been getting $11.

No question about it. He said he'd give a discount if 34 did so he pretty much followed 34's lead, dug in at $11.5m and got it. Luckily 45 goals makes it more digestible. You can overpay one or two stars but when you overpay 5, you are not beating a Florida team that gets their stars signed for less than market value.

 

[ToneDog]

How did it work out moving those guys for Calgary/Buffalo? Not well.
How did it work out for San Jose keeping those guys? Not well.

The Shanaplan was a failure. The sum of the core together does not work. You are either the team that has the right base and gets that 1 player, or you are the team giving/losing that player. Our build is the 2nd.

I don’t even believe that a retool around Matthews/Nylander is going to make any difference but people want to believe. After 9 years they are entitled to believe a different way. So you lose one (Marner) to change the DNA around the others. You could have done it earlier by moving Nylander to try and change things up but refused to do anything. So here we are now. Change made by the guy probably wanting to leave anyway.

That’s the hope now. Can you be the Florida/Colorado that makes that 1 change. Marner out, a new 2C/winger/something else complimenting Matthew’s/Nylander.

They are in too deep so they really do not have any other viable options until 34's contract ends. I'd consider shopping everybody but we know that is not happening. After all, we are not here to sell jerseys.

 

[ToneDog]

He can't.
He doesn't have the physical endurance in his frame.

Matthews can't either.

both too fragile.
especially Matthews.

Matthews needs to play like Barkov and they can bring in the players with physical endurance. Willie has a slight edge but my guess he plays bigger if somebody keeps the flies off. My advice is to sign every Panther that walks.

 

[Trapper]

They are in too deep so they really do not have any other viable options until 34's contract ends. I'd consider shopping everybody but we know that is not happening. After all, we are not here to sell jerseys.

I give it 3 years (if Marner leaves) that Matthews either goes UFA or his mysterious injury that shall not be talked about slows him down to an average player. But for now you’re right, in for a penny, in for a pound. If we’re smart though we’d be trying to grab whatever extra picks we can. We’re going to need them.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Thanks for pointing that out, lol. Obviously I was talking about their last contracts.

You clearly weren't though. Your description of Nylander's contract (long term, overpaid) only fits his current one, and you were making claims about Matthews' contract being relevant to Marner's ask "now", and that argument doesn't even work unless you're talking about his current one. Their last contracts were also fine and have nothing to do with anything.

Also, it may surprise you, but I’m sure Shanahan had lots to do with their current ones.

This may surprise you, but Presidents don't sign player contracts. GMs do.

It’s just too bad he could never do it when it mattered the most (and yes, I include the other two in that)!

He did though.

Isn’t it funny that Tre is still here and Shanahan is finally on his way out!

Funny? No.
Sad? Yes.
Predictable? Absolutely. The Leafs have a long history of making poor decisions.

 

[Gabriel426]

How did trading those guys away work out for those teams?

All depends on what pieces are coming back.
Sabres was not close to being a playoffs team with Eichel and Reinhart and they are still not close now.
Flames actually did the same or better when they traded Bennett. Did got worse with the Tkachuk trade though.
Islanders played better for two years after JT left.
Avs did won the Cup after trading ROR and Duchene.

Curious to see the replacements and how those players complement the current Leafs team.

 

[Gabriel426]

Once Marner leaves Toronto, my prediction is his superstar power dims a la Curtis Joseph leaving his hometown Maple Leafs to cup hunt in Detroit and you won't really think about him again... at the dollar amount he's going to be seeking, the fancy contract term riffing on Matthews, etc. I think he's too focused on the mercenary aspect of his career more than actual success. And without success you don't stay in the headlines.

From a PR standpoint. MM is in a tough spot.
If he takes less to sign with a contender, it just shows that all the talk about his love for Leafs…are just lies. Bc why won’t he signs that deal with the Leafs?
If he takes more to sign elsewhere, it just shows that all he wants is money.

If I am in his camp, I would just keep quiet and don’t leak anything till it is close to choosing which teams

 

[Leaf Fans]

He is not worth the 23M AAV he is probably asking for.

 

[Caesium]

From a PR standpoint. MM is in a tough spot.
If he takes less to sign with a contender, it just shows that all the talk about his love for Leafs…are just lies. Bc why won’t he signs that deal with the Leafs?
If he takes more to sign elsewhere, it just shows that all he wants is money.

If I am in his camp, I would just keep quiet and don’t leak anything till it is close to choosing which teams

I think Marner does love the Leafs. I think he hates Toronto. I don't think there's any number from the Leafs that gets him to sign here again.

 

[All Mod Cons]

I was hoping and suggesting they traded Marner and Tavares ever since the Columbus series. It was obvious we'd never win the way we were constructed.
It is a shame that we aren't getting any assets in return for Mitch (other than cap space).
I'm shocked at how badly the Leafs and Mitch have handled the last 5 years.

There are much better GMs on this board than Kyle Dubas.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That isn't an option.

It may not be now that Treliving has screwed it up, but it was.

Anything that supports your opinion is rock-solid evidence, and everything that opposes your opinion is questionable...

Not at all, but that seems to be how you operate.

He has barely been held accountable, let alone abused. He’s been handled with kid gloves since day one.

That's not even close to true.

As I’ve said before, Mitch Marner turned the media and fans into enemies and then wonders why they don’t really like him.

Marner didn't do anything. Media and fans have been toxic and stupid all on their own. Take some responsibility for your own actions.

 

[Stephen]

Marner didn't do anything. Media and fans have been toxic and stupid all on their own. Take some responsibility for your own actions.

Marner doesn’t have social media and doesn’t tune in to the noise from what he says. How can online discussion be a problem?

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Imagine Alex Barkov has a bad game 6 because an HF Board poster wrote something on a thread. If only the Leafs could play in an empty building then there wouldn't be any noise....oh wait...we did that during covid. Can anyone remind me if Marner was good in that series?

 

[al secord]

Your birth must have been uncomfortable ...

Don't talk about my mama like that

 

[mikeyz]

Not sure you understand the difference between the word "fact" and an "opinion".

I'm completely aware of what the difference between a fact and opinion is. And what I said is definitely a fact. It's also my opinion. But in this case my opinion is definitely a fact.

Bennett has 2 more goals in the playoffs this spring then Marner has in his entire 9-year career.

Again. It's a fact that he's worth more than Marner and should be paid more.

 

[Dreakmur]

It may not be now that Treliving has screwed it up, but it was.

It's never been an option for Treliving.

Both Lou and Dubas had the chance to sign him to a reasonable contract. Unfortunately, neither one did.

Not at all, but that seems to be how you operate.

Whatever you say...

That's not even close to true.

It's completely true. Management and coaches know how mentally fragile he is, so they're terrified to confront him about anything. It's grotesque.

Marner didn't do anything. Media and fans have been toxic and stupid all on their own. Take some responsibility for your own actions.

The only argument you could make is that Marner's camp did all the damage instead of just him. Regardless, there's a justifiable reason that people don't like the guy, teammates included.

As I've said before, you've created your own reality, and it's pointless to have discussions with you. Feel free to claim the last word. I'm sure it will be brilliant.