Player Discussion - Mitch Marner Part Infinity | Page 154 | HFBoards - NHL Message Board and Forum for National Hockey League

Player Discussion Mitch Marner Part Infinity

Wonder if instead of a pick or current player, we should be looking at prospects a team has that are worth somewhere around a late first / early second?

Looking at teams who are reported to be interested in Marner:

LAK - Winger - Liam Greentree would be an interesting pickup. 26th overall pick in 2024, 6'3, decent two way game, had almost 2 PPG in his D+1 season on the Spits, but his skating is not great.

Utah - Center - Cole Beaudoin - 24th pick in 2024, just over a ppg. Scouts say he has a really high floor, but they aren't sure on his upside. Huge motor.

Carolina - Center - Bradly Nadeau - 30th overal pick, near ppg in first AHL season. A bit undersized at 5'11. Nadeau was one of the lone bright spots on the squad. Nadeau’s two-way game has seen a massive jump since the 24' draft, being a consistent penalty killer for the Wolves and being able to be used in high-leverage situations.

Columbus - Centrer - Luca Del Bel Belluz - 6'1, can skate, good forechecker, 53p in 61 AHL games and 8p in 15 NHL games. Player in this group who is the most ready for the NHL right now. Was drafted in 2022 44th overall. Skating and physical game could still use a bit of work, but isnt far off being a good middle 6 option with 2C upside (with a bit of luck).

Carolina - Winger - Nikita Artamonov - 5'11 (From Dobber) "Artamonov has been stellar in his second season with Torpedo. In 53 games, he has 20 goals and 15 assists for 35 points, which is currently leading Torpedo in scoring... He’s always had the hockey IQ and feel of the game to be in the right spot at the right time... Still a buzzsaw on the forecheck, the points starting to roll in is a nice development." Could be the highest upside guy of the bunch.


Everyone here is either a recent late first with an obvious weakness (Greentree's skating, Beaudins ceiling, Nadeau's skating and strength) or a bit older (Luca is 2 years removed from being a mid 2nd rounder) or has the Russian factor and size (Nikita).

Would love to get like a Luca who could likely make the Leafs next year, or one of Greentree/Artamonov who have the highest offensive ceilings.
Are you talking about a sign and trade or his rights?

If its the latter than you are overvaluing marners value a ton, as his negotiation rights are probably worth a mid round pick

If you are talking about a sign and trade then I’m not sure cuz UFAs don’t really get signed and traded so idk what the precedent is for that.
 
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Are you talking about a sign and trade or his rights?

If its the latter than you are overvaluing marners value a ton, as his negotiation rights are probably worth a mid round pick

If you are talking about a sign and trade then I’m not sure cuz UFAs don’t really get signed and traded so idk what the precedent is for that.
Didn't Guentzel get a 3rd? To me these guys are worth anywhere from a late first to a mid 2nd.
 
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There's absolutely a scenario where a playoff team, if not multiple, will review Marner's time in Toronto and conclude that his playoff struggles were more of a "core 4 / Toronto" thing, instead of a "Marner" thing, and feel like him set alongside their own core group of players, with their different style of play, will lead to better results than what he experienced here.

I don't for a second believe that the sentiment amongst GMs of playoff teams is that Marner is useless etc, or that they view spending big on im as foolish or unwise.

I'm not even convinced anymore that that's an unreasonable viewpoint either - has Marner really struggled? Sure. But how much of Marner's struggles come down to him playing in a core where all the other guys are basically wired the exact same way?

Marner can be successful anywhere but could he leave enough money on the table where he’s the number three forward and in a facilitating role for one or two superstars who can rev it up?

On one hand he wants to be paid like a Nathan Mackinnon. But can a team throw him out there against a Nathan Mackinnon and expect winning results in a seven game series? I wouldn’t bet on it. Can he slot behind Nathan Mackinnon and have more success than paired up with Auston Matthews? Probably. But we are all led to believe the economics would never line up.
 
Nor should he but it really comes down to % of cap at the time for signing

If you look around the league it usually comes down to elite players who are competitive but aren’t the shrewdest business oriented people. They take their many millions and keep pursuing championships. A guy like Brad Marchand has left a fortune on the table but he has a lot more success on the ice. There’s no right choice. Not many people can have it all.
 
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If you look around the league it usually comes down to elite players who are competitive but aren’t the shrewdest business oriented people. They take their many millions and keep pursuing championships. A guy like Brad Marchand has left a fortune on the table but he has a lot more success on the ice. There’s no right choice. Not many people can have it all.
Crosby has kept his 8.7 million caphit since year 4, he got rewarded by keeping his caphit after his 5 yr deal with 2 more cups. Malkin did the same albeit a bit higher the 2nd time around. That is commitment to winning and knowing that 8.7 million plus endorsements a year is enough, since you can’t take money to your grave and leave a fortune for you kids and kids kids
 
He cannot block it. They are not trading the SPC to another tramthey are trading his exclusive negotiation rights, which are two completely different things. An NMC protects the player from having their contract traded to another team. There is a period before UFA where teams have exclusive negotiation rights and players exclusive rights can be traded within that period. The SPC is technically done 5 days before July 1st.

There is absolutely no concept of "trading" negotiating rights separate from trading the player.

The only "angle" the Leafs could theoretically try, is one they apparently tried ~15 years ago with Mats Sundin & Montreal... where Toronto agreed to let Montreal call up Sundin, with the understanding that there was a deal in place between Montreal & Toronto if Montreal was able to convince Sundin to sign.

Sort of similar to how Zack Hyman's deal went down, where Hyman was given permission to speak to a number of teams, with the Leafs hopign they would then come to Toronto asking for Toronto to facilitate an 8-year deal.

With Mitch, it's a bit different. It's not immediately that Mitch even wants a long term deal. There's a reasonable argument to suggest that he'd be better served with a 2 or 3 year deal and go back to UFA with a $115m+ cap.

If going long term, it may make sense to look at 6 years, so that he can still obtain another deal with term at age 34.

Ultimately, I think the hope for Toronto has to be around Mitch & his representation getting nervous. Let's say Toronto strikes a deal with LA... so Mitch gets the call from Ken Holland saying "we want you, here's $13m x however many years you want... but if you say no to this we cannot promise this offer is still going to be on the table come July 1 at 1pm, as we need to make decisions"... maybe he gets nervous and says to himself "this ticks all the boxes", and agrees.

"LA" does this because knowledge is power, and they can go into July 1 with certainty as to how much cap space they have to play with, and one massive need already filled.

On the flip side, there's also an argument to say that there might be even more money available on UFA Day as teams get desperate... maybe that $13m becomes $14m or $15m. I'd wager it wont come from a contender at those levels, so Mitch will have to decide what his priorities are.

If it's making sure he doesn't leave a cent on the table, then not much the Leafs can do. If it's wanting to assert control and be presented with ~10 offers with which to chose, again not much the Leafs can do. If he decides he really wants to be in a specific place (or two), and wants to ensure he's "properly paid" while going there, it's likely in his best interest to work with the Leafs so that that team can make it happen.

He'll also have a ton of information as Darren Ferris has the 2 big dogs in the UFA pool, Marner and Bennett.
 
I really can't see a contender blowing up their salary cap structure for a guy who has shown that blowing up a cap structure for a team (Leafs) doesn't work. Why would FLA with Barkov as their highest paid player sign MM to more than Barkov? Why would Vegas do it in order for Eichel to ask for even more money next year?

The reason those teams are contenders is because they have a pretty tight lid on upper level deals and they sure as shit are not going to mess with it for a guy who isn't a winner and didn't even live up to his last deal.

It's going to be a team like SJ or CHI that will throw around big money...and if he accepts that instead of taking less to go to a winning organization...that just proves what we thought and good riddance to him.
Agreed, exactly why I was thinking L.A... Doughty and Kopitar are at the ends of their careers and they dont have anyone on their roster currently who is an elite player to worry about their cap structure.

They wont have any elite players if Marner signs either.
 

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Shanahan and Dubas had everything they needed handed to them to make an easy contender that should have won a cup. Despite this fortunate windfall they went out of their way to attempt to reinvent the wheel with NuHockey, then discipline their coach for trying to tame an egomaniac or narcissist or something, whatever the heck he is in Marner and a troubled kid in Matthews who is now in competition with the Raptors guys for fashioning lol.

They burnt it to hell by themselves and ignored all the fires while it was relatively small and containable.
 
Likewise the Marner/Dubas cultists will justify any overpayment he gets and cling to his regular season performance and ignore his horrific "efforts" in the playoffs
There will be no need to justify anything, the GM's of the league will set his value.
 
Nor should he but it really comes down to % of cap at the time for signing
You do understand that Rantanen $12 mil and Draisaitl $14 mil and Marner next contract ALL begin Year 1 in the 2025-26 season.

All these players contract will have their Cap Hit % applied to the same Salary ceiling. NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman said the salary cap for the 2025-26 season was projected to be $92.4 million, a $4 million jump from this season's cap of $88 million

Rantanen (signed March 2025) = $12 mil AAV of $92.4 mil = 12.98 CH%
Draisaitl (re-signed Dec 2024) = $14 mil AAV of $92.4 mil = 15.13 CH%
vs.
Marner (signed July 2025) = $XX mil AAV of $92.4 mil = ????

If Marner gets $14 mil he will be tied for the highest contract in the NHL and will take up the same CH% as Leon Draisaitl.

FWIW: For this current year 20247-25 Draisaitl is currently making $8.5 mil and Rantanen is making $9.5 mil while Marner is making $10.9 mil.
 
Wonder if instead of a pick or current player, we should be looking at prospects a team has that are worth somewhere around a late first / early second?

Looking at teams who are reported to be interested in Marner:

LAK - Winger - Liam Greentree would be an interesting pickup. 26th overall pick in 2024, 6'3, decent two way game, had almost 2 PPG in his D+1 season on the Spits, but his skating is not great.

Utah - Center - Cole Beaudoin - 24th pick in 2024, just over a ppg. Scouts say he has a really high floor, but they aren't sure on his upside. Huge motor.

Carolina - Center - Bradly Nadeau - 30th overal pick, near ppg in first AHL season. A bit undersized at 5'11. Nadeau was one of the lone bright spots on the squad. Nadeau’s two-way game has seen a massive jump since the 24' draft, being a consistent penalty killer for the Wolves and being able to be used in high-leverage situations.

Columbus - Centrer - Luca Del Bel Belluz - 6'1, can skate, good forechecker, 53p in 61 AHL games and 8p in 15 NHL games. Player in this group who is the most ready for the NHL right now. Was drafted in 2022 44th overall. Skating and physical game could still use a bit of work, but isnt far off being a good middle 6 option with 2C upside (with a bit of luck).

Carolina - Winger - Nikita Artamonov - 5'11 (From Dobber) "Artamonov has been stellar in his second season with Torpedo. In 53 games, he has 20 goals and 15 assists for 35 points, which is currently leading Torpedo in scoring... He’s always had the hockey IQ and feel of the game to be in the right spot at the right time... Still a buzzsaw on the forecheck, the points starting to roll in is a nice development." Could be the highest upside guy of the bunch.


Everyone here is either a recent late first with an obvious weakness (Greentree's skating, Beaudins ceiling, Nadeau's skating and strength) or a bit older (Luca is 2 years removed from being a mid 2nd rounder) or has the Russian factor and size (Nikita).

Would love to get like a Luca who could likely make the Leafs next year, or one of Greentree/Artamonov who have the highest offensive ceilings.
LMAO none of those pieces will go for a pending UFA. Think more in the ballpark of a 3rd rd pick
 
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You do understand that Rantanen $12 mil and Draisaitl $14 mil and Marner next contract ALL begin Year 1 in the 2025-26 season.

All these players contract will have their Cap Hit % applied to the same Salary ceiling. NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman said the salary cap for the 2025-26 season was projected to be $92.4 million, a $4 million jump from this season's cap of $88 million

Rantanen (signed March 2025) = $12 mil AAV of $92.4 mil = 12.98 CH%
Draisaitl (re-signed Dec 2024) = $14 mil AAV of $92.4 mil = 15.13 CH%
vs.
Marner (signed July 2025) = $XX mil AAV of $92.4 mil = ????

If Marner gets $14 mil he will be tied for the highest contract in the NHL and will take up the same CH% as Leon Draisaitl.

FWIW: For this current year 20247-25 Draisaitl is currently making $8.5 mil and Rantanen is making $9.5 mil while Marner is making $10.9 mil.
Says here Draisaitl sign in September on an 88 million dollar cap.

Edmonton Oilers sign Leon Draisaitl to eight-year, $112M extension | TSN

Other than that, I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.
 
As long as it's not here, I really don't care what he gets, but I'm almost hoping he gets something extreme like either 9 or 15, just to watch the hoop-jumping.

Agreed ..

Its in the Leafs BEST INTEREST to take nothing (but cap space) and let him walk then to re-sign him to a ridiculous contract.

When Treliving talks about changing the DNA he is talking about bringing in Big, Mean and Mobile players and dumping Small, Soft and easily intimidated marshmallows.

Then with that Cap Space go out and sign Sam Bennett of the Florida Panther's currently makes $4.425 mil AAV and he currently has 12 playoff goals this year and a pending UFA. Leafs could virtually double his salary to $8 mil AAV and save approx $6 mil extra on Marner's $14 mil.

Leafs would make out like Bandits here, as his playoff goal production in his current year is almost >>> Marner in his entire career.
 
Says here Draisaitl sign in September on an 88 million dollar cap.

Edmonton Oilers sign Leon Draisaitl to eight-year, $112M extension | TSN

Other than that, I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.
The CBA allows for teams to sign players a year in advance of their expiring contracts but their current contract is still in play for the current year.

Draisailt is in year #8 of his current year making $8.5 mil. Its that current amount that is currently being applied to 2024-25 Salary Cap ceiling of $88 mil.

His new $14 mil per contract doesn't begin until 2025-26 season at which point it will apply against $92.4 mil cap ceiliing = ~ 15%..

There is no point at which his current deal will apply against a former cap other then as a reference point at time of signing. Again his $14 mil new contract will never be a factor in this year's Oilers team playing in the final because he is only making $8.5 mil.

If Draisaitl signs a year early and Rantanen at the Trade deadline and Marner this summer all 3 of their NEW salaries will apply a CH% agaisnt the 2025-26 Cap, because they're all currently playing out their last year of their current contacts agaisnt the 2024-25 Cap.

You seem to believe Draisaitl $14 mil salary for next year seems to appling to this year 2024-25 $88 mil cap ceiling which is FALSE its his current $8.5 mil that is. No difference had Marner re-signed early Leafs would still be only applying his $10.9 mil not his new contract to this year.

Both Draisaitl and Marner (and Rantanen) next contract will all apply to the $92.4 mil for 2025-26 as will thier actual CH%.
 
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There will be no need to justify anything, the GM's of the league will set his value.
That's not how it works, GM's offer horrible contracts all the time. Just because a player is paid X amount, does not mean that, that's what his value is.

For example the Brad Richards UFA "sweepstakes" he wasn't worth anything near that amount. Or David Clarkson for example. But "The GMs set his value"
 

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