Player Discussion Mitch Marner Part Infinity

[Antropovsky]

Gonna be interesting to see whats out there for Marner.

Im thinking Kings make the most sense for both parties.

 

[Dayjobdave]

I am trying to figure out if I should trade the rights to my Marner sweater, or if I should acquire some Tucker lettering

 

[Tak7]

Good teams with Cup hopes either don't have the Cap space and also witness how useless a player like Marner is come playoff time that wouldn't spend foolishly.

There's absolutely a scenario where a playoff team, if not multiple, will review Marner's time in Toronto and conclude that his playoff struggles were more of a "core 4 / Toronto" thing, instead of a "Marner" thing, and feel like him set alongside their own core group of players, with their different style of play, will lead to better results than what he experienced here.

I don't for a second believe that the sentiment amongst GMs of playoff teams is that Marner is useless etc, or that they view spending big on im as foolish or unwise.

I'm not even convinced anymore that that's an unreasonable viewpoint either - has Marner really struggled? Sure. But how much of Marner's struggles come down to him playing in a core where all the other guys are basically wired the exact same way?

 

[ToneDog]

There's absolutely a scenario where a playoff team, if not multiple, will review Marner's time in Toronto and conclude that his playoff struggles were more of a "core 4 / Toronto" thing, instead of a "Marner" thing, and feel like him set alongside their own core group of players, with their different style of play, will lead to better results than what he experienced here.

I don't for a second believe that the sentiment amongst GMs of playoff teams is that Marner is useless etc, or that they view spending big on im as foolish or unwise.

I'm not even convinced anymore that that's an unreasonable viewpoint either - has Marner really struggled? Sure. But how much of Marner's struggles come down to him playing in a core where all the other guys are basically wired the exact same way?

Would you sign Panarin or Petey for $13m knowing how they have performed in the playoffs? Johnny hockey was similar to Marner but coming off a 115 point season and was the better goal scorer but ended up taking a haircut and not going to his #1 destination. Will be interesting to see which fish Ferris hooks into signing this playoff dud and how much he takes him for.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Gonna be interesting to see whats out there for Marner.

Im thinking Kings make the most sense for both parties.

I really can't see a contender blowing up their salary cap structure for a guy who has shown that blowing up a cap structure for a team (Leafs) doesn't work. Why would FLA with Barkov as their highest paid player sign MM to more than Barkov? Why would Vegas do it in order for Eichel to ask for even more money next year?

The reason those teams are contenders is because they have a pretty tight lid on upper level deals and they sure as shit are not going to mess with it for a guy who isn't a winner and didn't even live up to his last deal.

It's going to be a team like SJ or CHI that will throw around big money...and if he accepts that instead of taking less to go to a winning organization...that just proves what we thought and good riddance to him.

 

[Tak7]

Would you sign Panarin or Petey for $13m knowing how they have performed in the playoffs? Johnny hockey was similar to Marner but coming off a 115 point season and was the better goal scorer but ended up taking a haircut and not going to his #1 destination. Will be interesting to see which fish Ferris hooks into signing this playoff dud and how much he takes him for.

Very different cap environments for those players you mentioned, compared to where we are at now - the cap is going up, players and their reps talk less in AAV language and more in Percentage of Cap language, and given where we are with expansion, there's just simply less talent spread across more teams, putting an even higher premium on high end skill.

 

[leafs in five]

lol good luck with that... hes scared of contact in the East, imagine him in the big bad west?

10g 29a +10 vs western conference teams this year

 

[Mr_Fun]

Pretty sure it's. Permission to talk - Yes
Permission to negotiate - No

I'm not so sure these parties are arguing the same thing. That's why it's always best to avoid online arguments. In my experience, it's rare that both (or multiple) parties are actually discussing the same point.

 

[Mr_Fun]

Gonna be interesting to see whats out there for Marner.

Im thinking Kings make the most sense for both parties.

That's where I would bet he ends up.

 

[centipede2233]

That's where I would bet he ends up.

Definitely, Ken holland wants to christen his LA gym job with a bad contract lol.

I can see it now, Treliving, dubas at the front of a gm scrum holding out contracts for marner to sign, then stone colds wwe music breaks, and here comes holland who swiftly pushes aside Tre and dubas and yells “this is my bad contract and that’s because stone colds says so!”

 

[Tak7]

That's where I would bet he ends up.

I want to put money down that he stays in the Eastern Conference, and maybe even in the Leafs division, because I just don't see Marner sailing off to some obscure market without causing maximum suffering and pain to the Leafs and their fans.

I also have a really hard time envisioning someone who has such a large family / team around him at all times, not wanting to be somewhat close to them consistently throughout the year

 

[Gaberd2608]

There's absolutely a scenario where a playoff team, if not multiple, will review Marner's time in Toronto and conclude that his playoff struggles were more of a "core 4 / Toronto" thing, instead of a "Marner" thing, and feel like him set alongside their own core group of players, with their different style of play, will lead to better results than what he experienced here.

I don't for a second believe that the sentiment amongst GMs of playoff teams is that Marner is useless etc, or that they view spending big on im as foolish or unwise.

I'm not even convinced anymore that that's an unreasonable viewpoint either - has Marner really struggled? Sure. But how much of Marner's struggles come down to him playing in a core where all the other guys are basically wired the exact same way?

No one is arguing Marner isn't a really good player. He has demonstrated an inability to get it done when it matters and wants to be paid an absolute premium.

Imo there is no contending team that will sign him for more than Rantanen. Even at $12 million they run the risk of jamming up their cap like in Toronto.

 

[Tak7]

No one is arguing Marner isn't a really good player. He has demonstrated an inability to get it done when it matters and wants to be paid an absolute premium.

Imo there is no contending team that will sign him for more than Rantanen. Even at $12 million they run the risk of jamming up their cap like in Toronto.

I'm comfortably willing to bet that a playoff team will give him either the Rantanen deal, or more, due to the reasons I listed above - I think there are going to be many teams convincing themselves that Marner's playoff struggles are due in part to Toronto / the core 4, rather than being exclusively on Mitch, and will feel that those struggles will be overcome if he plays with a different group of players, in a quieter market.

I personally wouldn't pay Marner a penny over Rantanen's $12m, but the nature of going to free agency means you're going to have multiple competing offers and if a bidding war gets going, I feel like it's a slam dunk easy bet to assume that Marner is going to make more than Rantanen's $12m.

 

[Nineteen67]

It's the 2020s anything goes now. From science to polls to politics to environmental to trade wars to real wars.

Trusted sources is good enough! Trust in media, trust in media, trust in media (thanks for that gem global news lol)

Well, even the fake news media uses anonymous sources now. In fact, that’s basically all they use.

 

[Nineteen67]

The team sucked, they lost terribly like every year.

But that was expected they basically hit their ceiling

 

[Gaberd2608]

I'm comfortably willing to bet that a playoff team will give him either the Rantanen deal, or more, due to the reasons I listed above - I think there are going to be many teams convincing themselves that Marner's playoff struggles are due in part to Toronto / the core 4, rather than being exclusively on Mitch, and will feel that those struggles will be overcome if he plays with a different group of players, in a quieter market.

I personally wouldn't pay Marner a penny over Rantanen's $12m, but the nature of going to free agency means you're going to have multiple competing offers and if a bidding war gets going, I feel like it's a slam dunk easy bet to assume that Marner is going to make more than Rantanen's $12m.

Of the 16 playoffs teams this season, which of them do you realistically think Marner would have an interest in going to + they could/would pay him $12 million x however many years he wants + no doubt front end loaded so he gets money upfront.

Imo there may be ~ 5 playoff teams he would want to go to. Of those teams, how many can pay Marner how he wants to be paid without causing cap implications to their team (assuming he signs Rantanen money) Maybe LA, Aves? Aves won't pay him more than McKinnon imo.

It is more likely he signs with a bubble team - Columbus, San Jose, Anaheim

 

[Tak7]

Of the 16 playoffs teams this season, which of them do you realistically think Marner would have an interest in going to + they could/would pay him $12 million x however many years he wants + no doubt front end loaded so he gets money upfront.

Imo there may be ~ 5 playoff teams he would want to go to. Of those teams, how many can pay Marner how he wants to be paid without causing cap implications to their team (assuming he signs Rantanen money) Maybe LA, Aves? Aves won't pay him more than McKinnon imo.

It is more likely he signs with a bubble team - Columbus, San Jose, Anaheim

The cap is going up, and the free agency class is very weak - it's going to be a summer where I think we see a lot of movement, and it won't be hard for teams to blow open cap space if they want to include Marner.

The Avs may not want to pay Marner more than MacKinnon, but if MacKinnon tells the Avs to go and pay him more, they will - especially after the comments he made at the end of the season.

 

[Gaberd2608]

The cap is going up, and the free agency class is very weak - it's going to be a summer where I think we see a lot of movement, and it won't be hard for teams to blow open cap space if they want to include Marner.

The Avs may not want to pay Marner more than MacKinnon, but if MacKinnon tells the Avs to go and pay him more, they will - especially after the comments he made at the end of the season.

https://puckpedia.com/team/colorado-avalanche

This is their current cap space and roster. Who do they move to make space to give Marner $13.5 million + still sign the rest of their team? Makar will be UFA in 2 years. If they give Marner $13.5 and McKinnon is at $12.5 they will need to give Makar more. Aves will be in same boat cap wise as Leafs. Only difference is MacKinnon is in a different universe than Mathews and Makar is in a tier of his own. They still will have issues signing depth though imo.

I guess will be fun to see how this unfolds. Our own little soap opera lol

 

[francis246]

For the 95th time:

There is no difference between "negotiating rights", "exclusive team negotiating rights", and "player contract" - they are all the same thing within the context of this discussion.

The Toronto Maple Leafs Professional Hockey Club, competing in the National Hockey League, cannot receive any form of compensation in exchange for the ability of another Professional Hockey Club from the National Hockey League, granting that other team the ability to speak/negotiate a contract with Mitchell Marner, without Mitchell Marner waiving his No Movement Clause.

You’re wrong on this..

Christian Erhoff I believe is the precedent, back in 2011. His exclusive rights were traded and he had an NMC, the teams did not need his permission to trade his negotiation rights. The Vancouver canucks traded his negotiation rights to the New York islanders on June 28th, 2011. His negotiation rights were then traded to Buffalo the next day. He didn’t waive. In the CBA it states teams do not need to player permission to trade exclusive negotiation rights.

 

[Leaf Fans]

You’re wrong on this..

Christian Erhoff I believe is the precedent, back in 2011. His exclusive rights were traded and he had an NMC, the teams did not need his permission to trade his negotiation rights. The Vancouver canucks traded his negotiation rights to the New York islanders on June 28th, 2011. His negotiation rights were then traded to Buffalo the next day. He didn’t waive. In the CBA it states teams do not need to player permission to trade exclusive negotiation rights.

He had a NMC with the Canucks (from San jose)? He definitely got one from the Sabers on the huge (at the time) contract.

 

[Tak7]

He had a NMC with the Canucks (from San jose)? He definitely got one from the Sabers on the huge (at the time) contract.

He had an 8-team NTC with Buffalo

 

[Tak7]

You’re wrong on this..

Christian Erhoff I believe is the precedent, back in 2011. His exclusive rights were traded and he had an NMC, the teams did not need his permission to trade his negotiation rights. The Vancouver canucks traded his negotiation rights to the New York islanders on June 28th, 2011. His negotiation rights were then traded to Buffalo the next day. He didn’t waive. In the CBA it states teams do not need to player permission to trade exclusive negotiation rights.

Can you show me where it says that? As far as I'm aware, it does not say that at all.

It's difficult to find any information on what sort of trade protection Ehrhoff had while in Vancouver, but considering he had only been in the league for a limited amount of time, was traded to Vancouver from San Jose in the first place, and then moved on a few times as a pending UFA, I'd be surprised if he had a full NMC or a big NTC in the first place.

Nor would he likely have refused to waive

 

[Leaf Fans]

He had an 8-team NTC with Buffalo

OK, but when the Canucks traded his rights, he didn't have any protection let alone an NMC?

 

[francis246]

He had a NMC with the Canucks (from San jose)? He definitely got one from the Sabers on the huge (at the time) contract.

I’ll have to double check if he had an NMC. But it doesn’t matter. Trade protection doesn’t matter for negotiation rights.

Article 11.8 of the CBA states it clearly.

 

[58 Years No Cup]

Sadly there will always be some desperate or incompetent GM that destroys the salary cap comparables for others.

Teams like San Jose or Columbus or Anaheim teams with lots of cap and desperate to improve in the regular season are perfect to overpay Marner often to save the butt of the GM, because their goal is improvement and making the playoffs not winning a Championship.

Good teams with Cup hopes either don't have the Cap space and also witness how useless a player like Marner is come playoff time that wouldn't spend foolishly.

With Rantanen just resigning for $12 mil and how dominate he is in the playoffs that makes Marner's current $10.9 mil contract a over-payment for how poor his playoff play is. If salary Cap wasn't expected to massive +$5 mil or more inceases annually, then GM would have spend smarter and not harder.

And those types of teams are the only ones who will be Marner over market. And by "market" I mean the normal market for established regular season playoff chokers. One that has yet to be established in Toronto.