Player Discussion Mitch Marner Part Infinity

[Antropovsky]

Any team willing to pay Marner 14 million is doing so just to sell jerseys for a couple years, before the fan base turns on him when the Ferrari they thought they got is really a Fiero kit car.

 

[keonsbitterness]

We still got a 100 point player in Matthews who is considered a Selke level defensive player as well. Nylander could easily be a 100 point player playing on that 1st line consistently with Matthews and Knies.

People could say it's a weak FA class but we don't need all the high end talents. We just need guys who can provide some secondary scoring and help the team become the hard forechecking team they want to be who can maintain possession in the offensive zone, especially during the playoffs.

The team should be fine, but we're heading into an unknown. Losing Marner will be the biggest change to the team in years.

 

[png57]

So for the leafs its either
- Bring Marner back and experience the same outcome of losing in the 1st/2nd round next year
- Break it up and replace Marner's 100 point season with perhaps two 40-50 point a year players. I'm not sold losing marner would cause the team to miss the playoffs altogether. The attractive part is hopefully the changed dynamics will push the team over the hump.

I think I know which route I'd pick...

 

[TheGreatOne11]

Stolarz was rock solid for us folks. I don't think losing Marner will hurt our standings as much as is being speculated.

Might be addition by subtraction. A heavier hitting team come playoffs. Someone that doesn't shy away from the play come playoffs. Someone that can make the big play come playoffs.

I'm excited. Change is necessary after 9 straight years of losing, it's just time.

Yes it sucks losing a 100 point player, but depending on who we get this could be really good for us.

 

[notDatsyuk]

How can anyone think this when we still got Matthews, Nylander and Knies on the roster. Like what? The over rating of Marner is getting to levels that are just getting a bit ridiculous. Using Ovechkin as an example is not the comparison you want to make because the only time they had playoff success 1 time and it was when they won the cup. We were sold they'd be more like a Chicago, not Washington.

It really seems that for some posters the logic is "if Marner leaves we'll have nobody playing RW on the top line and no cap space".

And the "100 point player" actually only did it once, and even projected was nowhere near that in the playoffs.

 

[seventieslord]

I have crazy thoughts like this all the time. Like: maybe the problem is not the core. Maybe it's not just these 5 guys. Maybe it's specifically these 5 guys at these salaries. If they collectively earned 10M less, and we were able to support them with two more $6M players over these years, then maybe they'd have looked a lot better and have won a cup or two by now.

.... Like this really might be the issue.

A THN issue came out last month ranking the top 100 current NHL players. I don't have the exact rankings here, but our core 4 were about 10th, 20th, 30th and 90th.

Those 4 are currently all top 12 in cap hit in the league. 13.25, 11.5, 11.0, 10.9. add in the 5th, Rielly, generously the 200th best player in the league making 7.5 (84th) and that's a lot of wasted dollars. If they were making money that matched where they rank leaguewide, they'd be getting 11.0, 9.5, 9.2, 7.25 and 5.0. that's about 12M off!

Take that 12M and knock off two bottom of the lineup players and you've got 14M to replace them with, to support the big guys. Don't you think that these guys would look better with, I dunno, Reilly Smith and Valeri Nichushkin supporting them?

I think it's likely true that they are bad-to-poor playoff performers, but the problem was also an economical one

 

[seventieslord]

Willy will have 6 left so he might be harder to move

See, that's because it's not a good deal. I think when we signed that contract, we made it so that we were never going to get rid of him without retention. In a lot of cases, one would say, oh he's a great asset to pick up because he still got 4 years left on his deal. But in his case it's the opposite.

 

[Maple Leaf]

I bet he signs

 

[likecheese]

Any team willing to pay Marner 14 million is doing so just to sell jerseys for a couple years, before the fan base turns on him when the Ferrari they thought they got is really a Fiero kit car.

 

[ashs]

Marner is a leaf, I only see him as a leaf. I don't want him leaving. But we need him to sign a friendly deal for once

 

[Antropovsky]

View attachment 1040938

Hall and Oates like Fieros....go figure lol.

 

[likecheese]

Hall and Oates like Fieros....go figure lol.

To be fair, they probably grabbed their money, then said "get me the hell away from this thing before it explodes".

 

[Stephen]

No doubt it looks right now like he has no interest in returning and if the deadline to decide was urgent he'd be gone.

Time heals though, the team will make their pitch as will his wife and teammates and then they'll decide.
He'll also have other teams in his ear telling him the grass is greener, same as last summer.
6 weeks is a long time, things will die down and he'll make his decision. I'd put the odds at 50/50.

I agree with your breakdown and would even say it’s 60/40 that he comes back, especially if Florida makes a mockery of Carolina and steamroll in the finals. But that’s not to say we don’t actually need big substantive changes.

 

[seventieslord]

Not true at all

I'd say the facts support it.

Marner and Tavares are at the exact same point in their career (9 seasons in) when they reached UFA status. Marner is in D+10 but he's a late birthday, JT was an early birthday D+9, so only 4.5 months apart.

In the three seasons prior to going UFA, Tavares was just 49th in the NHL in points/60 at even strength (min 1000 mins) and 40th on the PP (min 400 mins). Marner ranks 8th and 5th. Seems like two completely different classes of players as far as production is concerned. Marner is also significantly better defensively.

Going by raw scoring, Marner is 8th in points over the last 4 seasons and 8th in points per game. Tavares was 6th in points and 11th in points per game.

Tavares had been 2nd, 7th, 16th, 17th and 18th in the NHL in points in his five best seasons. Marner has been 4th, 5th, 10th, 11th, 13th and 18th in points.

The biggest difference has been defense. JT had a defense WAR of 27% heading into his time with the leafs, based on his performance the three seasons prior. Marner is at 62% currently, the lowest score of his prime after a few years of being in the mid 90s.

Based on his regular season performance, Marner deserves to cash in much more than JT did 7 years ago.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Let’s not forget how Tkachuk ended up with an 8 year contract when he got traded to the Panthers.

RFA the first time, but maybe Tre can work some magic again. Maybe flex some Rogers money and frontload the contract with an immediate signing bonus before shipping Mitch off.

If Mitch walks as a UFA and we return no assets it’s a massive fumble. Free agency is weak and we lack assets.

 

[Gabriel426]

So for the leafs its either
- Bring Marner back and experience the same outcome of losing in the 1st/2nd round next year
- Break it up and replace Marner's 100 point season with perhaps two 40-50 point a year players. I'm not sold losing marner would cause the team to miss the playoffs altogether. The attractive part is hopefully the changed dynamics will push the team over the hump.

I think I know which route I'd pick...

Lets look at it this way and assume all players agree to the followings and the cap makes sense.

Would you rather sign Bennett, Marchand and Ekblad(Reilly is traded) after they win another Cup or lose in the Finals
or
Resign MM, JT and hold on to Reilly

Which ones would you choose

I really don't think anyone would say lets bring the band back bc Panthers are just too good.

 

[Gabriel426]

.... Like this really might be the issue.

A THN issue came out last month ranking the top 100 current NHL players. I don't have the exact rankings here, but our core 4 were about 10th, 20th, 30th and 90th.

Those 4 are currently all top 12 in cap hit in the league. 13.25, 11.5, 11.0, 10.9. add in the 5th, Rielly, generously the 200th best player in the league making 7.5 (84th) and that's a lot of wasted dollars. If they were making money that matched where they rank leaguewide, they'd be getting 11.0, 9.5, 9.2, 7.25 and 5.0. that's about 12M off!

Take that 12M and knock off two bottom of the lineup players and you've got 14M to replace them with, to support the big guys. Don't you think that these guys would look better with, I dunno, Reilly Smith and Valeri Nichushkin supporting them?

I think it's likely true that they are bad-to-poor playoff performers, but the problem was also an economical one

Essentially, you are saying they are all overpaid, which is so true.

 

[Gabriel426]

I agree with your breakdown and would even say it’s 60/40 that he comes back, especially if Florida makes a mockery of Carolina and steamroll in the finals. But that’s not to say we don’t actually need big substantive changes.

I would say 90/10 that he comes back. I really don't think MM wants to come back, like why would he. And the fact that Tre asked him to waive send a signal that they don't want him back. Lastly, as a player like MM, I believe he wants to win and why would he thinks he can win in TO with the current corps of players.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

yes, the Leafs stank the joint in Games 5 and 7. yes, Shanahan deserves to go. yes, Marner and Tavares are better off walking and the team retooling.

but - contrarian take. Maybe the Panthers ARE this good given that they're completely blowing the Hurricanes out of the water lol. The fact that the Leafs did take this team to 7 legitimately shows some serious growth to the team.

$13.5M X 8 for Marner
$5M x 3 or $4M x 4 for Tavares
$7.5M X 7 for Knies
fill out the rest with Cowan and PTO players

- Beat the Panthers next season when Bennett and Ekblad leave
- Leafs win Stanley Cup
- Tears of joy everywhere
- Marner shrine made of gold rivaling the Colossus is built in summer
- passers by kiss feet of shrine as it is said to bring good luck
- haters eating crow, quiet divert attention to new whipping boy rookie 4th liner Cowan

I'd be happy with this outcome.

 

[thewave]

Marner does not help you get beyond teams like the Panthers. Rantanen would have though.

I believe we will be a better playoff team without MM

 

[KAWAIlllI]

Where are the tweets?

It was all untrustworthy, silly me forgot to fact-check!

 

[Racer88]

Lets look at it this way and assume all players agree to the followings and the cap makes sense.

Would you rather sign Bennett, Marchand and Ekblad(Reilly is traded) after they win another Cup or lose in the Finals
or
Resign MM, JT and hold on to Reilly

Which ones would you choose

I really don't think anyone would say lets bring the band back bc Panthers are just too good.

That’s not even close. The Florida trio are heads and tails over the Leafs trio.

 

[leafs in five]

I think the most alarming thing about that play is that is two atrocious defensive plays just seconds apart.

The pass is idiotic and ill-fated, and maybe worse than the decision to attempt such a thing is that it certainly looks like the choice stemmed from the same old boogeyman that has haunted Marner every post-season: cowardice. It looks like the reason he made that dim-witted pass was because, as usual, he wanted to avoid contact.

What is truly unforgivable, to me, is that after his ghastly giveaway, his backcheck on the play wouldn't be acceptable for an exhibition game.

It seems like he is so fragile that after making the terrible pass, he seems to have just given up on the play altogether.

His effort on that play is totally unacceptable.

I can see an angle to defend the spin pass. it went right to Matthews, who had already fled the zone along with Rielly on the far side, and Knies was already at the far blueline. there was no space at all in that game and it was a high risk play that would have resulted in an odd-man rush if it had come off. obviously when when it doesn't come off you have to take the man or intercept the pass.

imo the worst play of his playoffs was leaving Benoit on an island after starting to change before the 3rd FLA goal in game 3. another case of a bad read and then not getting back to make up for it.

oh well.

 

[bodechek]

Mitch Marner is NOT coming back. He would be stupid to after some of the flack he has received. He can blame the fans all he wants, but his lack of passion and determination that is needed in the playoffs was lacking. If you look at him during the handshake line, he was a scrawny little boy that did not change one bit of his off season regimen. He has a body that is built for the PWHL, but he won't fit in. The women in that league like to get physical and hit when necessary.

 

[ToneDog]

Mitch Marner is NOT coming back. He would be stupid to after some of the flack he has received. He can blame the fans all he wants, but his lack of passion and determination that is needed in the playoffs was lacking. If you look at him during the handshake line, he was a scrawny little boy that did not change one bit of his off season regimen. He has a body that is built for the PWHL, but he won't fit in. The women in that league like to get physical and hit when necessary.

Stankoven and Aho are smaller but compete like Tom Wilson compared to Marner.

Funny I think it was Hayes who said, if you go back and watch all the end of season pressers, you will not see one scratch on any one of the core. It is laughable.