Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Part 3758391849

[Antropovsky]

Naw, he wants that 8 year deal. Main reason I think he'll re-sign with the Leafs if we want to go that route.

I disagree, Matthews got the 4 year deal. Marner wants it too. Its why Tree keeps repeating "we want Mitch here for a long time". The hold up is term (IMO) last time it was term, why would Marner change his stance on term, especially if Matthews got the short deal. Marner isnt gonna let Matthews get something he doesnt, not without a fight.

I think he wants 3 years. So hes a UFA again the same time as Matthews.

In 3 years the caps projected to be 114 million.

If Marner bridges 3 years x 12. He will be 31 as a UFA and if he signs for 14.7 millionx8 after (or even 7)... he will get an extra 14 million over the 8 year term compared to 12x8. And his final contract will take him to 38-39, instead of 36.

Guentzal is 30 this year and Tampa signed him for 9 millx7. He will be 37 at the emd of his contract (and before starting new season).

 

[Gary Nylund]

You'd think but here we are.

He's always produced up until game 87, what comes after that is the issue. You're constantly posting in the Marner threads, how is it possible that you still don't understand this most basic fact?

 

[arso40]

Who was saying Reinhart n verhaege were weak players I believe one of them is selke nominated again

 

[GoonieFace]

Who was saying Reinhart n verhaege were weak players I believe one of them is selke nominated again

People saying that probably saw them play 4 games this year.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

I have a sinking feeling he's leaving regardless of what happens. It's felt all season like he's done with the org. Shy of a deep run, I don't think there's much left between the two and I feel like the whole Carolina shit, was the final dagger. Where there's a rift that can only be repaired by a cup win.

Marner has not once said publically that he wants to resign, only that he's focused on this season. Take that for what you will, but that doesn't sound like a man who is dying to stay here. It sounds like a guy who's over this market truthfully.

That's kind of my take as well. I think he genuinely loves playing for the Leafs as a hometown kid, but parenthood changes you and these past few years have not been easy on him.

You see how much shit he takes from the fans. I don't think the criticism is at all undeserved, but it's the vitriol in which it's directed towards him. I have no idea if he reads or hears all this stuff, but I can't imagine him being oblivious to it. You can also see the annoyance that he shows the media asking the same questions over and over. Someone like Nylander will have fun with it, snicker, and laugh it off, but you just get the sense that it rubs Marner in a different way.

Then you add the whole Paul Marner thing, previous negotiations, carjacking, Amazon documentary where he throws a tantrum and is chewed out by Willie, etc., and I wouldn't be surprised if he and his wife just wanted somewhere a bit less intense where he can just go out and 'play hockey'.

It's also kind of the same reason why I'm not writing off McDavid coming home next summer. He may be thinking where he'd want to spend the next 7-8 years and potentially start a family. The guy loves Toronto and has always wanted to be a Leaf. If he were to sign here, he would literally be treated as a "god" - and would have at least 4-5 seasons of grace before we all eventually turn on him.

If Edmonton ends up winning the cup this season, it might make him sign long-term this summer to build a dynasty. But it could also increase the Leafs' odds, as he could feel like he has fulfilled his duties and would come home to Toronto to take on a new challenge.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

absolutely and I'm not even gonna say with 100% confidence the leafs want to resign him. The desire / urgency to get a deal done hasn't felt nearly as equal when comparing Nylander and Matthews to this.


I've always said this, if Marner walks, Bennett resigns and McDavid resigns, this board is going to have a full on crash out. Because there just won't be anyone who can come here and have a significant impact as a replacements. People have mentioned Ehlers or Boeser or Ekblad, when's the last time either of those 3 guys have put together a health 82? Also go look at Ehlers playoff numbers, if you don't like Marner's you aint gonna like Ehlers lol.

There's a few other good options out there, but we just have to hope we can hit on them.

Totally agree. Boeser, Ehlers, and Ekblad will be serious downgrades from Marner even if you manage to snag two out of three. I don't like Marner at $13M+, but I also don't like the idea of $15M+ on two out of these three guys, especially on the other side of 30.

 

[Antropovsky]

That's kind of my take as well. I think he genuinely loves playing for the Leafs as a hometown kid, but parenthood changes you and these past few years have not been easy on him.

You see how much shit he takes from the fans. I don't think the criticism is at all undeserved, but it's the vitriol in which it's directed towards him. I have no idea if he reads or hears all this stuff, but I can't imagine him being oblivious to it. You can also see the annoyance that he shows the media asking the same questions over and over. Someone like Nylander will have fun with it, snicker, and laugh it off, but you just get the sense that it rubs Marner in a different way.

Then you add the whole Paul Marner thing, previous negotiations, carjacking, Amazon documentary where he throws a tantrum and is chewed out by Wille, etc., and I wouldn't be surprised if he and his wife just wanted somewhere a bit less intense where he can just go out and 'play hockey'.

It's also kind of the same reason why I'm not writing off McDavid coming home next summer. He may be thinking where he'd want to spend the next 7-8 years and potentially start a family. The guy loves Toronto and has always wanted to be a Leaf. If he were to sign here, he would literally be treated as a "god" - and would have at least 4-5 seasons of grace before we all eventually turn on him.

If Edmonton ends up winning the cup this season, it might make him sign long-term this summer to build a dynasty. But it could also increase the Leafs' odds, as he could feel like he has fulfilled his duties and would come home to Toronto to take on a new challenge.

I agree with McDavid comments. I think he wants to come to Toronto regardless. He wants to win on the biggest stage imo. He wants that challenge...you can see his passion to win and be the best. However, being able to say he brought them a cup before leaving, certainly makes it easier to swallow for Edm and easier to leave.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Marner lovers and marner haters maybe the truth is in the middle

 

[GoonieFace]

McDavid is going nowhere, that’s a pipe dream.

 

[Kurtz]

I have a sinking feeling he's leaving regardless of what happens. It's felt all season like he's done with the org. Shy of a deep run, I don't think there's much left between the two and I feel like the whole Carolina shit, was the final dagger. Where there's a rift that can only be repaired by a cup win.

Marner has not once said publically that he wants to resign, only that he's focused on this season. Take that for what you will, but that doesn't sound like a man who is dying to stay here. It sounds like a guy who's over this market truthfully.

You lose me on this part - because if he was dead set on leaving, a trade to Carolina would have been the perfect out for him. They're a contender but he can also raise his fam in perfect off-ice anonymity there, and with Ranta coming back he'd also get a chance to leave without the bad feelings that would inevitably arise if he were to leave as a UFA.

The fact that he rejected the deal is an indication that he wants to stay here.

 

[IPS]

Some people really don't understand that there's nowhere that pays like Toronto.

Yeah the taxes - whatever. Toronto is still in a class of its own when it comes to sponsorship/brand deals (really any money making ventures at all outside of hockey) for baby faces like Marner. You are NOT getting this in Carolina or anywhere else. And this isn't even tacking on the Toronto premium that'll nicely cover any tax problems.

Marner 100% wants to stay. He has it all - stay/live in his hometown AND make the huge dollars.

 

[Antropovsky]

He's always produced up until game 87, what comes after that is the issue. You're constantly posting in the Marner threads, how is it possible that you still don't understand this most basic fact?

Marner fans don’t want to discuss advanced stats or his performance in Games 5–7 historically. The sarcasm is proof they know they can’t argue it, so they deflect instead.

 

[francis246]

You lose me on this part - because if he was dead set on leaving, a trade to Carolina would have been the perfect out for him. They're a contender but he can also raise his fam in perfect off-ice anonymity there, and with Ranta coming back he'd also get a chance to leave without the bad feelings that would inevitably arise if he were to leave as a UFA.

The fact that he rejected the deal is an indication that he wants to stay here.

Or maybe he felt this season he had a better chance to win with Toronto vs Carolina? Or his numbers would be better in Toronto vs Carolina heading into UFA. There are many factors that could have influenced that. So I don’t think it’s as black or white.

Additionally I don’t think Carolina is that desirable of place for players.

 

[ACC1224]

Or maybe he felt this season he had a better chance to win with Toronto vs Carolina? Or his numbers would be better in Toronto vs Carolina heading into UFA. There are many factors that could have influenced that. So I don’t think it’s as black or white.

Additionally I don’t think Carolina is that desirable of place for players.

There was no chance he was going to leave his teammates.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

Marner fans don’t want to discuss advanced stats or his performance in Games 5–7 historically. The sarcasm is proof they know they can’t argue it, so they deflect instead.

lol, what's your read in terms of cause and effect / input versus output? if we accept the advanced stats as the output that validates his suboptimal play, what would you ascribe as causing it? Legit question.

Some hypotheses off the top of my head:

1) Plays a perimeter, east-west game which is not conducive to physical games with tight forechecking usually found in games 5-7, so he's easily neutralized.

2) Is mentally weak and lacks "clutch". Doesn't rise to the big occasions like some others (MacK, Crosby come to mind)

3) Is afraid to take the body. Similar to #1, but #1 is about tactical neutralization whereas #3 is about intangibles

4) Is a regressive player. Plays to the mean of the Core or overall team, which underperforms for reasons #1-3 as well.

5) "It's out of his hands". Marner simply played the role that coach had designed for him. Keep in mind that in previous Games 5-7, the vast majority were under the same coach who didn't have a system specifically geared for "playoff hockey". I watched part of the Devils series. They had key injuries and played bravely without JH, but also blew leads and turtled like the Leafs of yesteryear. Marner played noticeably better these past two games, but you could reasonably argue that something within #1-4 is true and that there's an apparent delta in his game between i) games 5-7 vs ii) non games 5-7.

 

[Tak7]

You lose me on this part - because if he was dead set on leaving, a trade to Carolina would have been the perfect out for him. They're a contender but he can also raise his fam in perfect off-ice anonymity there, and with Ranta coming back he'd also get a chance to leave without the bad feelings that would inevitably arise if he were to leave as a UFA.

The fact that he rejected the deal is an indication that he wants to stay here.

It still could be - if he gets to free agency, we know the Canes will be all over it.

They've been big-game hunting for a while now - Guentzel, Rantanen, Marner, etc.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

There was no chance he was going to leave his teammates.

I think it's this.

And I also think Treliving knew that Marner wasn't going to waive mid-season. Not when Marner has all the leverage (he probably hasn't 100% decided to leave Toronto, but definitely wouldn't take a 'hometown discount' or else it would have already happened).

I think it was a good move by Treliving. You saw how emotionally affected Marner was. But it's Tre's way of saying, "look, we've been trying to engage with you on a contract, but you're not willing. We're not desperate to keep you at all costs. You're a huge part of this team this season and in the future, but we're willing to walk away from you and can imagine a post-Marner franchise that continues to make the Maple Leafs better."

We also don't know how much of this is Marner's positioning versus his agent. Marner could very well be saying to his agent, "I really want to stay a Leaf for the long-term, but I want to get the best return possible (as Marner should).". If that's the case, it favours him to walk all the way to UFA to maximize his leverage.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Nylander is better than Marner.

Not even close to true.

 

[francis246]

That's kind of my take as well. I think he genuinely loves playing for the Leafs as a hometown kid, but parenthood changes you and these past few years have not been easy on him.

You see how much shit he takes from the fans. I don't think the criticism is at all undeserved, but it's the vitriol in which it's directed towards him. I have no idea if he reads or hears all this stuff, but I can't imagine him being oblivious to it. You can also see the annoyance that he shows the media asking the same questions over and over. Someone like Nylander will have fun with it, snicker, and laugh it off, but you just get the sense that it rubs Marner in a different way.

Then you add the whole Paul Marner thing, previous negotiations, carjacking, Amazon documentary where he throws a tantrum and is chewed out by Willie, etc., and I wouldn't be surprised if he and his wife just wanted somewhere a bit less intense where he can just go out and 'play hockey'.

It's also kind of the same reason why I'm not writing off McDavid coming home next summer. He may be thinking where he'd want to spend the next 7-8 years and potentially start a family. The guy loves Toronto and has always wanted to be a Leaf. If he were to sign here, he would literally be treated as a "god" - and would have at least 4-5 seasons of grace before we all eventually turn on him.

If Edmonton ends up winning the cup this season, it might make him sign long-term this summer to build a dynasty. But it could also increase the Leafs' odds, as he could feel like he has fulfilled his duties and would come home to Toronto to take on a new challenge.

Completely agree with this. If the leafs do walk away from Marner, I’d want them to do nothing with the money this off season and save for McDavid.

You also touched on something I think is so important. People change over time and their desires and tolerances for environments change over time. My personal opinion of the situation is Marner likely wants to stay but to stay he has a number that would make it worth for him to deal with the vitriol.

It feels somewhat similar to the Dubas situation though I hate how Dubas went about it. It was scum movements. But to me it highlighted something fans don’t want to hear, playing / working for the leafs is amazing but it’s also a bitch and pain in the ass. The highs are like no other place in the NHL but the lows are really low. Dubas in his presser said something about talking to his family and wanting to take time off. To me that was code for my family hates the person I am in THIS job and I gotta check with them if they are okay with me continuing to work here and if they are, I gotta call all the shots because it’s not worth being the GM alone. I wonder if Marner finds himself in a similar situation where he might want to be here but either his inner circle is pushing him to leave or the only way he’s gonna be comfortable staying is if the leafs make it worth while financially. Either way not looking good.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

Not even close to true.

Down a goal? Give me Nylander.

Up a goal? Give me Marner.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Down a goal? Give me Nylander.

Up a goal? Give me Marner.

Empty net give me Nylander.. at least once we clear the zone playing down two..

At any other time, Marner.

 

[Tak7]

I think it was a good move by Treliving. You saw how emotionally affected Marner was. But it's Tre's way of saying, "look, we've been trying to engage with you on a contract, but you're not willing. We're not desperate to keep you at all costs. You're a huge part of this team this season and in the future, but we're willing to walk away from you and can imagine a post-Marner franchise that continues to make the Maple Leafs better."

I want to think this is why Treliving went public with it.

My alternate theory / worry is that it was Treliving's final desperate nuclear card to play, knowing that Marner is out the door. There was an uncomfortable undertone of trying to turn Marner into a scapegoat with those comments, that I didn't really understand - it was basically the opposite of how Treliving has handled the conversation around Marner all season. There was a very deliberate reason he went that route.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

Not even close to true.

Two very different players. I personally don't think the gap is that wide and think it depends on the context. I say this as a huge fan of both.

• If I'm building a roster without any salary cap, I take Marner.
• In a salary cap world, I prefer Nylander at $11.5M slightly over Marner at $14M+.
• If I need a gamebuster to score get the next goal, I take Nylander over Marner.
• If I am building a roster entirely from scratch as an expansion team, I take Marner over Nylander
• If Marner signs for 8 years, I prefer Marner age 35+ over Nylander at 35+.
• If I want a leader who I name as a captain to impose a certain culture and DNA on my team, I'd slightly prefer Nylander over Marner.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

I want to think this is why Treliving went public with it.

My alternate theory / worry is that it was Treliving's final desperate nuclear card to play, knowing that Marner is out the door. There was an uncomfortable undertone of trying to turn Marner into a scapegoat with those comments, that I didn't really understand - it was basically the opposite of how Treliving has handled the conversation around Marner all season. There was a very deliberate reason he went that route.

Also equally plausible. It's the "going public" with it which is really alarming lol.

These things happen all the time in hockey, and usually when there's a leak, the GM neither confirms nor denies and is tight-lipped. Treliving was pretty transparent about it.

When you think about it, he also played it well from a PR perspective. Gives Tre some good cover if Marner does walk ("Well, I've been trying to sign him for over twelve months and he wouldn't engaged. I even tried to trade him for a strong asset, but that was blocked so many hands were tied.")

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

Empty net give me Nylander.. at least once we clear the zone playing down two..

At any other time, Marner.

Fair. Marner as a heavy playmaker and as such inherently needs someone else to finish. Now he can make amazing plays which makes finishing easier, but still needs someone to score.

Nylander can create great plays (maybe not on Marner's level, but very close to it) however, at this point in time he's also the best finisher on the team as well. He gives you more options if you need a goal.

Defensively nod goes to Marner.