Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Part 3758391849

[Antropovsky]

How many goals were a direct result of his playmaking ?? Secondary assist are cool for sure some of them actually matter but he has been right on par with other seasons in order for us to be a legit contender he has to be our 3rd or 4th best player which is possible with Knies or jt playing like their hairs on fire

.... he has 4 5v5 primary assists in his past 20 playoff games.

... He had just 3 5v5 primary assists in his last 31 games in the season.

 

[Leaf Fans]

.... he has 4 5v5 primary assists in his past 20 playoff games.

... He had just 3 5v5 primary assists in his last 31 games in the season.

He has 8 points however you want to count them.

 

[Antropovsky]

Points are points, it's stupid to try and minimize a players contributions, with faulty anti-fan logic.

When they start to take away empty net goals/assists when determining the Art Ross or Rocket Richard awards, you may have a point, until then your post is just empty calorie junk.

Is Ovie the greatest goal scorer of all time or should we take away his 65 empty netters?

Marner is scoring at a 13 goal pace since 2019-2020 playoffs.

He had a grand total of 5-5v5 shots in 6 games vs the Senators.

11 million and this guy is almost a non-factor as a shooting threat.

 

[Antropovsky]

He has 8 points however you want to count them.

Reilly would have 8 points playing point for Matthews, Nylander, Knies and Tavares on the PP.

Marner plays 5v5 with Knies and Matthews.

Nylander had 9 points with 34 year old Tavares and 3rd liners.

Nylander is scoring at a 42 goal pace since 20-21 playoffs.
Marner is scoring at a 15 goal pace since 20-21 playoffs.

 

[Antropovsky]

NHL edge stats per categories for Nylander Vs Marner. Its pretty obvious why Nylander doesn't struggle like Marner does in creating playoff offense:

look how poorly Marner compares to Playoff players. If he didn't play alot he would literally be one of the least skilled players in the playoffs in the tracked categories (speed, shot speed etc):

Marner


Nylander:


Marner is quite significantly below league average in speed these playoffs. Jeez imagine how bad he will be in a couple years? He's 170 lbs and also amongst the slowest players in the playoffs.




For comparison here is Mackinnon and Mcdavid:

 

[Gary Nylund]

@francis246 What exactly are you suggesting I admitted to?

Also… kinda shady that you didn’t tag me, but hey—I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt.

This is the quote that started the discussion. I called BS on this and the claim is that you are one of these people.

lots of people around here would rather see him and us fail than us win

 

[Antropovsky]

This is the quote that started the discussion. I called BS on this and the claim is that you are one of these people.

lots of people around here would rather see him and us fail than us win

Yea... can't wait for @francis246 to dig up this make belief quote of me saying this.

Just like when he said someone close to him works for MLSE or has close connections and they told him Nylander was arguing with Matthews not Marner and then proceeded to say that his insider told him it was during a timeout and following a PP. None of which occurred during the argument. Francis then backtracked off the entire statement.

So yea... he has a bit of a history of lying.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Reilly would have 8 points playing point for Matthews, Nylander, Knies and Tavares on the PP.

Marner plays 5v5 with Knies and Matthews.

Nylander had 9 points with 34 year old Tavares and 3rd liners.

Nylander is scoring at a 42 goal pace since 20-21 playoffs.
Marner is scoring at a 15 goal pace since 20-21 playoffs.

Sure, 'woulda, coulda, shoulda.' Marner has 8 points this playoffs, which are the only relevant playoffs at this point.

 

[Gary Nylund]

NHL edge stats per categories for Nylander Vs Marner. Its pretty obvious why Nylander doesn't struggle like Marner does in creating playoff offense:

look how poorly Marner compares to Playoff players. If he didn't play alot he would literally be one of the least skilled players in the playoffs in the tracked categories (speed, shot speed etc):

Marner
View attachment 1028170

Nylander:
View attachment 1028169

Marner is quite significantly below league average in speed these playoffs. Jeez imagine how bad he will be in a couple years? He's 170 lbs and also amongst the slowest players in the playoffs.

View attachment 1028173


For comparison here is Mackinnon and Mcdavid:

View attachment 1028177

View attachment 1028176

Those charts paint a pretty ugly picture. I know some people claim he's the smartest player in hockey history but not sure if even that would be enough to make up for this (if it was true that is, dubious claim at best).

 

[Zybalto]

Nylander had 38 OZ starts, Marner had 36 OZ starts (with 20 more shifts overall).

Zone and shooting percentages aren't all that useful.

I was talking 5v5 not overall but the lesson remains the same. No need to try and spin things.

5v5 shifts:
Nylander
Ozone starts: 25
Dzone starts: 4

Marner:
Ozone starts: 22
Dzone starts: 19

Nylander is actually one of the more "sheltered" forwards in the playoffs when it comes to this but that is the wrong word to use and this all makes perfect sense doesnt it? You want Nylander out there in the ozone. He's not exactly an all world defensive player. Deployment certainly matters and is one of the most important things a coach can do. You really think Rielly and Tanev should switch zone usage? It doesnt matter right?

Rielly: 75.68% ozone start%
Tanev: 32.14 ozone start%

Do you really think it doesnt matter if we flipped these?

Jeez.

Using all situations actually makes Nylander look worse and I wouldnt use it to support my arguments and its a little strange you think it helps you at all.

All situations:
Nylander
Ozone starts: 38
Dzone starts: 4

Since Nylander doesnt PK, All situations balances out in Marners case and makes Nylander push up to 90+%. (and pushes Marner into 20+ shift territory)

 

[HaveKnifeWillButcher]

That line is a mess and it has nothing to do with Marner. He has a center who is inexplicably taking 25 second shifts over and over again. He has a left winger who dumps the puck in about 95% of the time he has control of it in center ice (could somebody tell Knies that he can actually carry the puck into the zone). Marner looks frustrated and he should be.

 

[Gabriel426]

Winning the first round is not some big accomplishment. 50% of all playoffs teams managed to play in the 2nd round every year.

For a team like the Leafs, making it into the 2nd round should be automatic.

Playing against Panthers will show whether or not this current team is good enough to compete for the Cup. If they crashed out like last time, I just don’t see the appeal of bringing the band back together and hope a few depth signings will make the difference next year.

If they beat the Panthers or at the very least compete and make it a 7 game series. Then the conversation will be interesting.

 

[Zybalto]

So he lied to me for what exactly? lol this is the things I’m talking about like why do we have to be shady ?

I'm gonna give him the benefit of the doubt that he wasnt being sinister or completely bad faith there with his using inappropriate stats and framing things in a poor way.. People spin like crazy nowadays as a matter of habit.

Is it really that far fetched that we play the great playoff scoring winger offensively and we play the two way Selke nom winger (and center) more balanced. Its almost like people dont want to believe things and try anything they can to disprove them. The math is black and white and seems like something any good coach would do and it matters.

 

[Zybalto]

Winning the first round is not some big accomplishment. 50% of all playoffs teams managed to play in the 2nd round every year.

For a team like the Leafs, making it into the 2nd round should be automatic.

Playing against Panthers will show whether or not this current team is good enough to compete for the Cup. If they crashed out like last time, I just don’t see the appeal of bringing the band back together and hope a few depth signings will make the difference next year.

If they beat the Panthers or at the very least compete and make it a 7 game series. Then the conversation will be interesting.

Still happy to see the win and agree with most of this but what do you think the Lightning should do now?

I dont even know if they even can blow anything up at this point.

 

[sunstersun]

It is hilarious to see on the main board the same guys making the same points.

Marner PR team is working overtime. It's ok guys. Nylander is better than Marner.

 

[ACC1224]

Still happy to see the win and agree with most of this but what do you think the Lightning should do now?

I dont even know if they even can blow anything up at this point.

If Marner makes it to UFA you can bet Cooper will try and get Tampa to make a strong push for him, he's a huge fan.

 

[LeafEgo]

I was talking 5v5 not overall but the lesson remains the same. No need to try and spin things.

5v5 shifts:
Nylander
Ozone starts: 25
Dzone starts: 4

Marner:
Ozone starts: 22
Dzone starts: 19

Nylander is actually one of the more "sheltered" forwards in the playoffs when it comes to this but that is the wrong word to use and this all makes perfect sense doesnt it? You want Nylander out there in the ozone. He's not exactly an all world defensive player. Deployment certainly matters and is one of the most important things a coach can do. You really think Rielly and Tanev should switch zone usage? It doesnt matter right?

Rielly: 75.68% ozone start%
Tanev: 32.14 ozone start%

Do you really think it doesnt matter if we flipped these?

Jeez.

Using all situations actually makes Nylander look worse and I wouldnt use it to support my arguments and its a little strange you think it helps you at all.

All situations:
Nylander
Ozone starts: 38
Dzone starts: 4

Since Nylander doesnt PK, All situations balances out in Marners case and makes Nylander push up to 90+%. (and pushes Marner into 20+ shift territory)

You really took this one around the block.

Deployment is important, zone percentages arn't very useful here though.

38 to 36, or 25 to 22 is the difference that was in question - offensive opportunity.

I'm sure it was an honest misstep, but saying Nylander had 86% OZ starts and Marner had 50% OZ starts to support 'I hope he would produce with that kind of usage' is Fox News level misleading, so the additional clarity is important imo.

 

[francis246]

This is the quote that started the discussion. I called BS on this and the claim is that you are one of these people.

lots of people around here would rather see him and us fail than us win

He is one of those people, certified!

 

[Hellcat]

Marner is scoring at a 13 goal pace since 2019-2020 playoffs.

He had a grand total of 5-5v5 shots in 6 games vs the Senators.

11 million and this guy is almost a non-factor as a shooting threat.

Players who get paid a lot and dont score goals a lot are not good value in your opinion?

 

[francis246]

I agree. I think it comes down to the price tag and Marner's willingness to return. I wouldn't blame him if he wanted to try somewhere else for his family, be the undisputed top dog, change of scenery, etc. I also believe that he genuinely loves being a Leaf and would be open to staying under the right circumstances.

Rightly or wrongly, I think the Leafs clearing Round 1 gives them enough cover to re-sign Marner without the guy being mercilessly run out of town on opening night. Had the Leafs lost in 7 to the Senators, there is absolutely no way the Leafs could have re-signed Marner even if for a hometown discount.

If the Leafs lose to the Panthers in 5-7 games, my guess is on something like $13.5M-$14M X 8 would get it done. If the Leafs miraculously get past the Panthers, I think Zeus returns on $14M+ x 8. If the Leafs win the cup, marble statue by opening night.

I have a sinking feeling he's leaving regardless of what happens. It's felt all season like he's done with the org. Shy of a deep run, I don't think there's much left between the two and I feel like the whole Carolina shit, was the final dagger. Where there's a rift that can only be repaired by a cup win.

Marner has not once said publically that he wants to resign, only that he's focused on this season. Take that for what you will, but that doesn't sound like a man who is dying to stay here. It sounds like a guy who's over this market truthfully.

 

[Gabriel426]

Still happy to see the win and agree with most of this but what do you think the Lightning should do now?

I dont even know if they even can blow anything up at this point.

Honestly, Lightning like every teams that made a run and ultimately won then struggle due to aging.

Personally, I will still try to compete as long as Vas is in net bc he is someone who can steal series in playoffs. Also trade Cirelli for an upgrade in 2C as well as getting another top 3 Dman as Hedman is no longer the No.1 Dman.

 

[Mess]

Sounds like your describing a checking line forward.

0 even strength points in games 5 and 6. -4 in game 5.

Didnt record more than 1 5v5 shots in a game. One game he had 0 even strength shots. 5 total 5v5 shots in 6 games.

1 goal in the entire series

He has 7 goals in his past 43 playoff games. That's a 13 goal pace.

12-13 million?

Marner is suppose to be playing like a player trying to earn a new contract and not any contract but one of the richest in the NHL history.

To me he plays more like a player trying not to get fired, as his impact on many shifts in minimal at best, and his actual impact in meaningful series deciding games is a mere 6 assists after 19 games now over 8 years.

Nobody believes Mitch was vital to Leafs advancing, as his only assist came on the PP by simply making a routine point pass to Matthews also at the other point, before his slow motion 36 MPH shot found the net.

 

[Gabriel426]

I have a sinking feeling he's leaving regardless of what happens. It's felt all season like he's done with the org. Shy of a deep run, I don't think there's much left between the two and I feel like the whole Carolina shit, was the final dagger. Where there's a rift that can only be repaired by a cup win.

Marner has not once said publically that he wants to resign, only that he's focused on this season. Take that for what you will, but that doesn't sound like a man who is dying to stay here. It sounds like a guy who's over this market truthfully.

Feel the same.

I also feel that the MGT is reluctant to sign him too.
Just feel different with a year ago when AM and Willie were going through the same thing. You get a sense that both sides want to get a deal done and we feel that it will get done sooner or later but with MM and JT this year, at least I never had that feeling.

 

[francis246]

Feel the same.

I also feel that the MGT is reluctant to sign him too.
Just feel different with a year ago when AM and Willie were going through the same thing. You get a sense that both sides want to get a deal done and we feel that it will get done sooner or later but with MM and JT this year, at least I never had that feeling.

absolutely and I'm not even gonna say with 100% confidence the leafs want to resign him. The desire / urgency to get a deal done hasn't felt nearly as equal when comparing Nylander and Matthews to this.


I've always said this, if Marner walks, Bennett resigns and McDavid resigns, this board is going to have a full on crash out. Because there just won't be anyone who can come here and have a significant impact as a replacements. People have mentioned Ehlers or Boeser or Ekblad, when's the last time either of those 3 guys have put together a health 82? Also go look at Ehlers playoff numbers, if you don't like Marner's you aint gonna like Ehlers lol.

There's a few other good options out there, but we just have to hope we can hit on them.

 

[Hellcat]

Marner is suppose to be playing like a player trying to earn a new contract and not any contract but one of the richest in the NHL history.

To me he plays more like a player trying not to get fired, as his impact on many shifts in minimal at best, and his actual impact in meaningful series deciding games is a mere 6 assists after 19 games now over 8 years.

Nobody believes Mitch was vital to Leafs advancing, as his only assist came on the PP by simply making a routine point pass to Matthews also at the other point, before his slow motion 36 MPH shot found the net.

You talk about he is supposed to be playing like a player trying to earn a new contract? 8 points in 6 playoff games (109 point pace) is kinda good, no? 102 point regular season, is kinda good, no? Not sure how you can infer he is not playing at an elite level?

I get that some people have a dislike on for Mitch and have many coping mechanisms to deny what they see but selective Mitch blindness is a new one.