I agree. I think it comes down to the price tag and Marner's willingness to return. I wouldn't blame him if he wanted to try somewhere else for his family, be the undisputed top dog, change of scenery, etc. I also believe that he genuinely loves being a Leaf and would be open to staying under the right circumstances.
Rightly or wrongly, I think the Leafs clearing Round 1 gives them enough cover to re-sign Marner without the guy being mercilessly run out of town on opening night. Had the Leafs lost in 7 to the Senators, there is absolutely no way the Leafs could have re-signed Marner even if for a hometown discount.
If the Leafs lose to the Panthers in 5-7 games, my guess is on something like $13.5M-$14M X 8 would get it done. If the Leafs miraculously get past the Panthers, I think Zeus returns on $14M+ x 8. If the Leafs win the cup, marble statue by opening night.