Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Part 3758391849

[1specter]

Domi is up there is that a good thing ? He hasn’t looked good at all

Usage really impacts these numbers. Domi has been really sheltered with mostly OZ usage from Berube cause he is bad defensively. He also generally gets Ottawa's 3rd and 4th line matchups.

 

[Ports]

Jesus Christ... I know corsi is kind of outdated now... but these numbers are pretty eye-popping...

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These stats seem to corroborate the observation that the top line is spending a hell of a lot of time in its own end and not much in the opposing team's. At least they're defending decently in the defensive zone and not conceding a lot of goals.

Isn’t that line being used more for dzone faceoffs at 5on 5 ? That could explain some of it.

 

[Ports]

Not sure we watched the same game - that was both 16 and 34's worst games of the series so far.

The pair of them offered basically nothing to the game until overtime. They got trapped in their own zone repeatedly, their breakouts were a mess, there was no forecheck and no sustained pressure at all.

Its concerning to me that the player who had the most impact on that line at ES, was actually the 22 year old and not the elite experienced guys

Until they lead the team to victory in the highest pressure games (close out games, late series games) the questions will continue. Marner can’t compete physically but can still be very effective dishing to his line mates and making great plays but if Matthews doesn’t compete enough physically and drive the bus they will never compete for a cup. The pessimistic voice in my head says he’s always banged up and it seems like he’s not mentally strong enough and doesn’t rise to the moment. The Four Nations finals looked too familiar. He needs to step up and not play scared.

 

[ACC1224]

He had a bad night.

Its okay to acknowledge it. I promise you wont combust. Knies made his goal all by himself.

If Marner (and Matthews, to be fair- not just singling one out) had proper impact, the series would be over.

Thought you were better than this garbage.

 

[Zybalto]

Isn’t that line being used more for dzone faceoffs at 5on 5 ? That could explain some of it.

The Matthews/Marner line is averaging 23.52 defensive zone faceoffs/60 and have 5 goals scored, 0 against.

The rest of the team without either of them on a line is averaging 13.00/60 and have 5 goals scored and 5 goals against.

Since the start of the 2020 playoffs, Marner now has a 70% 5v5 goal differential. When it comes to actual results, he may well be the most valuable 5v5 forward of the last half decade. The only other forward close would be McDavid but even he doesnt have a differential so far above the rest of his team.

 

[ToneDog]

The Matthews/Marner line is averaging 23.52 defensive zone faceoffs/60 and have 5 goals scored, 0 against.

The rest of the team without either of them on a line is averaging 13.00/60 and have 5 goals scored and 5 goals against.

Since the start of the 2020 playoffs, Marner now has a 70% 5v5 goal differential. When it comes to actual results, he may well be the most valuable 5v5 forward of the last half decade. The only other forward close would be McDavid but even he doesnt have a differential so far above the rest of his team.

I can't believe you actually typed that or believe it. Marner the most valuable 5 vs 5 player of the last decade is comical given some would argue he has barely played a game past round #1. Time to take a break.

 

[arso40]

The first line is playing the hard minutes.

On the road too?

 

[Antropovsky]

Jesus Christ... I know corsi is kind of outdated now... but these numbers are pretty eye-popping...

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These stats seem to corroborate the observation that the top line is spending a hell of a lot of time in its own end and not much in the opposing team's. At least they're defending decently in the defensive zone and not conceding a lot of goals.

These are Marners numbers with Matthews too, its scary to think how bad they'd be if he was without Matthews.

Consider that Marners Season numbers without Matthews were absolutely dreadful:

Marner without Matthews regular season 200 mins:

Corsi: 41.8%
Fenwick: 39.3%
Shots for%: 41%
Expected gf%: 41%
Scoring chance%: 43.6
High Danger scoring chances: 42%

It's not like he was with chop liver either, these are stats with Tavares mostly. Pretty bad for a guy wanting 12+ million.

12 million to be on the losing side of almost all stats vs his opponents? Seems like a good idea for sure!

 

[Zybalto]

I can't believe you actually typed that or believe it. Marner the most valuable 5 vs 5 player of the last decade is comical given some would argue he has barely played a game past round #1. Time to take a break.

I dunno,

All I'm saying is that if you could pick from any forward the last 5 years, and you wanted the guy who gave you the greatest chance of scoring the most goals while giving up the fewest goals 5v5, you would pick Mitch Marner. Thats what the math says. The actual results.

Here is a guy 3rd in playoff scoring, hasnt been on for a 5v5 goals against and I should take it from peoples word that he actually has been bad and I need to take a break.

OK dude......











]

 

[sunstersun]

The Matthews/Marner line is averaging 23.52 defensive zone faceoffs/60 and have 5 goals scored, 0 against.

The rest of the team without either of them on a line is averaging 13.00/60 and have 5 goals scored and 5 goals against.

Since the start of the 2020 playoffs, Marner now has a 70% 5v5 goal differential. When it comes to actual results, he may well be the most valuable 5v5 forward of the last half decade. The only other forward close would be McDavid but even he doesnt have a differential so far above the rest of his team.

The board should have dislike comments for shit like this.

 

[francis246]

Why though in a game where nylander was the most “impactful” all I saw was complaints and inna game where marners looking like playoff Mitch Hes getting praised for things Hes not doing

Nylander was not the most impactful, outside of the one assist, Nylander was dreadful. Honestly that might have been the worst game I’ve ever seen Nylander play in the playoffs. Man couldn’t do shit the entire game, couldn’t stay on his feet, can’t win a board battle, shooting into feet. Credit him for the cross seam pass, but he was garbage. Same with Marner, same With Matthews. All three were not good last night.

I don’t know why we need to prop up Nylander to put down Marner and prop up Marner to put down Nylander.

It’s okay to admit they all sucked. What’s not okay is the hyperbolic statements in an attempt to shit on one player.

 

[francis246]

Jesus Christ... I know corsi is kind of outdated now... but these numbers are pretty eye-popping...

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These stats seem to corroborate the observation that the top line is spending a hell of a lot of time in its own end and not much in the opposing team's. At least they're defending decently in the defensive zone and not conceding a lot of goals.

How many defensive zone starts do they have vs offensive zone starts? They also haven’t conceded any goals 5 on 5 and have outscored their opposition. So who cares if they spend a ton of time letting Ottawa have the puck if Ottawa does absolutely nothing with it?

 

[kevsh]

Advanced metrics in the playoffs:

 

[Antropovsky]

The Matthews/Marner line is averaging 23.52 defensive zone faceoffs/60 and have 5 goals scored, 0 against.

The rest of the team without either of them on a line is averaging 13.00/60 and have 5 goals scored and 5 goals against.

Since the start of the 2020 playoffs, Marner now has a 70% 5v5 goal differential. When it comes to actual results, he may well be the most valuable 5v5 forward of the last half decade. The only other forward close would be McDavid but even he doesnt have a differential so far above the rest of his team.

#1 most of Marners points come in blowouts and in the first few games in the playoffs.

#2 they need to produce more offense! They aren't scoring and they are taking up all the cap, preventing qualitybdepth and depth scoring. It's not the GMs fault we don't have depth scoring, it's the fact we've dumped all our money into these guys and they aren't dominating! Knies is gonna likely get 8-9 million. So this is a 36 million dollar line next year that has a corsi of around 37% against one of the leagues worst playoff teams.

Let's check Marners stats the one time the Leafs reached the 2nd round:

11 million Marner when 10 million/year Barkov was on the ice 5v5:
Marner scoring chances for per 60: 20 per 60
Barkov scoring chances for per 60: 37 per 60

Yes Barkov almost doubled Marner in scoring chances when they were out together.

 

[francis246]

And Tkatchuk and Stutzel aren't? They are at about 70% corsi, while Marner, Matthews are 37%.

That line is at 70% corsi and down 3-1, so who gives a f***?

This is the part that perplexes me about you. You ramble off stats (especially advanced stats) but they mean nothing if it doesn’t translate to wins. Literally nothing. You gawk off Ottawa and that top line, yet there’s not a damn thing their advance stats is doing to help them win games.

In the playoffs you don’t win a Stanley cup by having the sexiest advanced stats. You win the cup by getting shit done with real, concrete, raw data. So I don’t care if the Matthews line has a corsi of 30%, they aren’t giving up goals 5 on 5 and they’ve been scoring 5 on 5 when they need to.

 

[ToneDog]

I dunno,

All I'm saying is that if you could pick from any forward the last 5 years, and you wanted the guy who gave you the greatest chance of scoring the most goals while giving up the fewest goals 5v5, you would pick Mitch Marner. Thats what the math says. The actual results.

Here is a guy 3rd in playoff scoring, hasnt been on for a 5v5 goals against and I should take it from peoples word that he actually has been bad and I need to take a break.

OK dude......

He might not have been on for a 5 on 5 goal vs Sens but he's been embarrassing at times with his critical giveaways leading to back breaking goals. How many OT goals against has he been on for and how many has he assisted on, let alone scored? Oh yeah, I forgot they do not play 3 on 3 OT in the playoffs.

 

[francis246]

#1 most of Marners points come in blowouts and in the first few games in the playoffs.

#2 they need to produce more offense! They aren't scoring and they are taking up all the cap, preventing qualitybdepth and depth scoring. It's not the GMs fault we don't have depth scoring, it's the fact we've dumped all our money into these guys and they aren't dominating! Knies is gonna likely get 8-9 million. So this is a 36 million dollar line next year that has a corsi of around 37% against one of the leagues worst playoff teams.

Let's check Marners stats the one time the Leafs reached the 2nd round:

11 million Marner when 10 million/year Barkov was on the ice 5v5:
Marner scoring chances for per 60: 20 per 60
Barkov scoring chances for per 60: 37 per 60

Yes Barkov almost doubled Marner in scoring chances when they were out together.

Again, Marner may have had shitty advanced stats but he and Nylander were the only two to actually score goals.

Where was JT and Matthews and their sexy advanced stats?

0 goals. GOOSE EGGS.

 

[francis246]

He might not have been on for a 5 on 5 goal vs Sens but he's been embarrassing at times with his critical giveaways leading to back breaking goals. How many OT goals against has he been on for and how many has he assisted on, let alone scored? Oh yeah, I forgot they do not play 3 on 3 OT in the playoffs.

Did Marner cause last nights OT loss? Or did Rielly? Cause he can’t clear a puck to save his life?

 

[Leaffan1991]

So the thing is that top line gets the hardest matchups and they are doing great defensively but for what they are paid they need to score more when it counts.
Willy gets easier matchups and almost always starts face offs in the ozone.
I think all 4 need to step it up especially relative to what they are paid.

 

[Antropovsky]

Again, Marner may have had shitty advanced stats but he and Nylander were the only two to actually score goals.

Where was JT and Matthews and their sexy advanced stats?

0 goals. GOOSE EGGS.

Shit%$ advanced stats and the team underachieving every year. Hmm... can't be connected right?

 

[francis246]

Shit%$ advanced stats and the team underachieving every year. Hmm... can't be connected right?

lol, the leafs as a team have had some of the highest advanced stats in terms of possession and expected goals and still get fcking dummied every year.

When are you gonna get it that advanced stats literally means shit if doesn’t actually produce goals?

It’s mind boggling to me. Do I want a player who has a high expected goals or high shot total but 0 goals or someone who’s possession numbers might be low but has raw numbers that blow out the competition?

I want the latter.

 

[ToneDog]

Did Marner cause last nights OT loss? Or did Rielly? Cause he can’t clear a puck to save his life?

Not sure I've ever seen Rielly worse than he was in OT last night but poster was claiming Marner is the best 5 on 5 playoff player of the last half decade which is comedy gold. This guy has played 5 games in the second round and is 1 and 8 in the playoffs. How can you compare that to players that have gone to the SCF multiple times?

 

[francis246]

Not sure I've ever seen Rielly worse than he was in OT last night but poster was claiming Marner is the best 5 on 5 playoff player of the last half decade which is comedy gold. This guy has played 5 games in the second round and is 1 and 8 in the playoffs. How can you compare that to players that have gone to the SCF multiple times?

Oh, I didn't see that post. I think Marner has definitely been the scapegoat though. It's unfair, he gets a lot of the blame, when I think it should be on everyone. I wouldn't say he's the best 5 on 5 playoff player. But Marner has been solid this year and it does feel like people just hate on him for no reason at all. That's why I think regardless of what happens he's out of here, why would anyone want to endure that continuously. He's playing well defensively, he's contributing well offensively and leading the team in scoring, he's pulling his weight 5 on 5 and yet people are still shitting on him. Kinda crazy if you ask me. I know some people have made up their minds about him and they have every right, but anyone who thinks we are going to replace a player of his talent in UFA this year is delusional. They better pray McDavid wants to come here bc if Marner leaves for free and Marner walks this franchise is screwed.

 

[ToneDog]

Oh, I didn't see that post. I think Marner has definitely been the scapegoat though. It's unfair, he gets a lot of the blame, when I think it should be on everyone. I wouldn't say he's the best 5 on 5 playoff player. But Marner has been solid this year and it does feel like people just hate on him for no reason at all. That's why I think regardless of what happens he's out of here, why would anyone want to endure that continuously. He's playing well defensively, he's contributing well offensively and leading the team in scoring, he's pulling his weight 5 on 5 and yet people are still shitting on him. Kinda crazy if you ask me. I know some people have made up their minds about him and they have every right, but anyone who thinks we are going to replace a player of his talent in UFA this year is delusional. They better pray McDavid wants to come here bc if Marner leaves for free and Marner walks this franchise is screwed.

He's been good but I am not convinced he is worth $13+m and if the team would not be better off to move on unless he softens. Of course it would leave a big hole but if Tre can find the right adds, there is a chance they could be more successful. Maybe it wakes up Matty and he starts earning his keep by elevating lesser players. This is the best D and G they've had under Shanny. Let's see if they can score more than two goals/game in round #2.

 

[Zybalto]

He might not have been on for a 5 on 5 goal vs Sens but he's been embarrassing at times with his critical giveaways leading to back breaking goals. How many OT goals against has he been on for and how many has he assisted on, let alone scored? Oh yeah, I forgot they do not play 3 on 3 OT in the playoffs.

Consdiering hes on against the other teams best in critical situations pretty much all the time, he's going to have those moments, and even in the moments, I wouldnt put much blame on him (the softest goal ever floater through the legs on Campbell in game 7 for example)

The problem is, much like last game, we have the top lines wrecking things and the 3rd and 4th lines being useless while we get outgoaltended Thats the main theme of the last half decade combined with useless special teams. I think Stolarz will bounce back and we'll take it in 5 but was Marner a problem yesterday? Nope, he played pretty well. If the entire rest of the team played to Marners level 5v5, not just this series but over the last 5 years, we'd have a cup. He's been that good. In his 36 games over the last 5 years, he has 36 points and only been on for 12 5v5 goals while playing the toughest matchups (with mostly Campbell and Samsonov in net). One of only 8 wingers who have been PPG over that 5 year stretch. So you get a combination of one of the few PPG wingers combined with the best defensive winger. You may be underrating him is all.....