Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Part 3758391849

[darrylsittler27]

Our D is locked in and old as f***. Add in the fact that the cupboards are bare, and great shape isn't how I'd describe where it looks like we'll be a couple of years from now.

No, in 2028 the long 5 year build begins. This team is now old with bare cupboards and no picks. Game over.

 

[ToneDog]

Red flag! He is slow and plays scared. Imagine a slower MM and just as scared. It won't age well. JT is slow but he can body people when need be.

Has he peaked? Most would answer yes. Nowhere to go but down for this Magician. Best if he disappears and keeps the Leafs from another self inflicted wound.

 

[thewave]

Has he peaked? Most would answer yes. Nowhere to go but down for this Magician. Best if he disappears and keeps the Leafs from another self inflicted wound.

I agree but I am also fine paying him if he doesn't have an NMC. The option to move on after next season works.

 

[ToneDog]

I agree but I am also fine paying him if he doesn't have an NMC. The option to move on after next season works.

Many have suggested it. The odds of him agreeing to no NMC are about the same him scoring 50 goals or getting into a fight. The Leafs have no balls when t comes to dealing with the 3 amigos.

 

[notDatsyuk]

The right thing to do is to reward goal scoring but nobody around here wants to do that.

Pretend Marner ends the season at 101pts and you have to make a blind choice between two players based on a single year's stats only.

98 PT 40 goal Vs 101pt 26 goal. 11.5m gets you either or. Who would you select?

Not true - people want to reward goal scoring if it's Matthews.

 

[notDatsyuk]

His better all around play and bigger track record is likely worth $3 million more per year...

Marner is going to be a steal... love that you agree Mess, good job on coming around.

So you're saying Marner should get about $8.5?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Keeping telling yourself that...Matthews shook the norm at the time...there was a lot of news coverage about his contract...teams were locking their young promising players long term if they could, rfa or not...even Draisaitl signed for 8 years around that time.

8 year terms have become more popular, but there is a lot more room to maximize term and cap hit percentage when the player hasn't really broken out yet, and/or the team isn't expected to be immediately competitive. That wasn't our situation. 5 years is still the most common high end post-ELC term. In fact, half of the top 20 post-ELC cap hit percentages ever given out have been 5 year terms. Of course there was media coverage. Media thrives on the drama, and this fanbase is huge and happily eats it up without any thought.

 

[thewave]

Not true - people want to reward goal scoring if it's Matthews.

True.

Nylander is now a perennial 40+ guy and if his contract was awarded this coming off season it would be a good deal.

Matthews deserved his 13.25 the guy was tracking towards matching Ovi over the career.

Marner got too much at 10.9 last time

 

[Maple Leaf]

Need to take some hometown discounts if you want to go the distance

 

[Smif]

No I live in a world where I trust my eyes and can see the puck go in the net 45 times


I think that may have been my first poem.

2nd line's shooting % is up 30% this year.

 

[Superstar]

8 year terms have become more popular, but there is a lot more room to maximize term and cap hit percentage when the player hasn't really broken out yet, and/or the team isn't expected to be immediately competitive. That wasn't our situation. 5 years is still the most common high end post-ELC term. In fact, half of the top 20 post-ELC cap hit percentages ever given out have been 5 year terms. Of course there was media coverage. Media thrives on the drama, and this fanbase is huge and happily eats it up without any thought.

Nobody is happily eating it up...Matthews' contract was an anomaly at the time he signed it compared to his peers.

 

[Smif]

It might be a steal if Marner is 21 years old. But it wasn't a steal either when he signed for almost $11 million on his last contract. I don't see paying Marner $13 mil from age 32 to 36 a steal.

13M will be the new 8M in 4 years.

10.9M should've been a bargain 4 years ago if Covid doesn't happen, instead it became a good deal this year comparative to his contribution.

 

[Smif]

No, in 2028 the long 5 year build begins. This team is now old with bare cupboards and no picks. Game over.

This is precisely why we should sign the last of our top 3 players. We're all in on the next 3-5 years. After that we're f'd for a while.

It doesn't matter how slow Marner is when he's 33.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Nobody is happily eating it up...Matthews' contract was an anomaly at the time he signed it compared to his peers.

You ate it up. It wasn't an anomaly at all, but they managed to convince you it was.

 

[Superstar]

13M will be the new 8M in 4 years.

10.9M should've been a bargain 4 years ago if Covid doesn't happen, instead it became a good deal this year comparative to his contribution.

$10.9 mil for Marner is not a bargain whether Covid happened or not, considering his contribution to the team over that span, especially in the playoffs. There are some bargains in the league over that time, Marner's contract wasn't one of them.

 

[Superstar]

You ate it up. It wasn't an anomaly at all, but they managed to convince you it was.

LOL, you ate everything that Dubas breathed on....many folks didn't have a problem with the AAV, it was the term.

 

[ToneDog]

This is precisely why we should sign the last of our top 3 players. We're all in on the next 3-5 years. After that we're f'd for a while.

It doesn't matter how slow Marner is when he's 33.

Sadly you are 100% correct. Question is will we be the last place Hawks who won cups or the SJ Sharks who won nothing or worse, the Leafs who never got past the 2nd round? If it is not the Hawks, it is on the 3 amigos.

 

[Smif]

$10.9 mil for Marner is not a bargain whether Covid happened or not, considering his contribution to the team over that span, especially in the playoffs. There are some bargains in the league over that time, Marner's contract wasn't one of them.

I don't know if you're just purposely not understanding what I'm saying or choosing to ignore it. 10.9M for Marner right now is a good deal compared to his piers (ie Nylander @ 11.5 and Matthews @13.25). If Dubas was actually smart we'd have Marner at 10.9M for another two years which would've been a great deal.

Most 8 year deals signed to all-stars in their early 20's should be about 3 years of overpay, 2 years of fair value and then 3 years of greal value. We got screwed out of the last 2 years of great value from Marner's contract imo.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

This is precisely why we should sign the last of our top 3 players. We're all in on the next 3-5 years. After that we're f'd for a while.

It doesn't matter how slow Marner is when he's 33.

I really think this team, if it doesn't make any real noise in the playoffs over the next 3 seasons, is going to be torn down for a rebuild/retool. If that's the case, then sign Mitchy to whatever you can afford so that you can trade the whole lot of them when the team is tanking. NMC or not...they won't want to stick around here for that. So in essence, you are paying a bit extra for Mitchy's next few seasons only for you to be able to get something back for him from a contender.

 

[Dekes For Days]

LOL, you ate everything that Dubas breathed on....many folks didn't have a problem with the AAV, it was the term.

I don't eat any of that nonsense. I base my conclusions on the facts and data. There was nothing anomalous about the cap hit percentage, or the term, or the combination of cap hit percentage and term relative to his pre-signing performance. Many folks are not well informed when it comes to contracts, as you can see by people taking issue with a term that is historically most common. I would have loved 8 years too, but it's funny, because in the end, the lesser term ended up helping us, as we got cheaper contracts through the covid flat cap and they came up for re-signing in the pre and early stages of the big cap jumps instead of right after. In 2 more years, we'd be looking at over 16m.

 

[ToneDog]

I really think this team, if it doesn't make any real noise in the playoffs over the next 3 seasons, is going to be torn down for a rebuild/retool. If that's the case, then sign Mitchy to whatever you can afford so that you can trade the whole lot of them when the team is tanking. NMC or not...they won't want to stick around here for that. So in essence, you are paying a bit extra for Mitchy's next few seasons only for you to be able to get something back for him from a contender.

I get your logic but how long do you run back the same core and expect different results? If they go deep, he will want to stay and the Leafs will want to sign him. If not, let him test the market and see what is out there and if there are other options that make sense. You can double back if he remains unsigned. Running it back is insane if they are 1-9 or 2-9 after these playoffs and should not be an option IMO.

 

[ToneDog]

LOL, you ate everything that Dubas breathed on....many folks didn't have a problem with the AAV, it was the term.

Dubas had one hell of a cult following.

 

[francis246]

Need to take some hometown discounts if you want to go the distance

Who gives a flying fck about hometown discounts. You need to perform to go the distance. That’s it. Comments like these are sickening. Even if Marner had gotten 9.5 the last go around, if he, Matthews and Tavares and Rielly still underperformed it wouldn’t have mattered if they took discounts.

Before you say, we would have had Hyman, go look at Hyman’s playoff numbers before leaving Toronto. Straight dog water.

Everyone needs to accept the contracts have always been a distraction from reality. The stars under performing. Saving 1.5 on the cap from Marner in 2019 was going to do f*** all tbh.

 

[francis246]

I get your logic but how long do you run back the same core and expect different results? If they go deep, he will want to stay and the Leafs will want to sign him. If not, let him test the market and see what is out there and if there are other options that make sense. You can double back if he remains unsigned. Running it back is insane if they are 1-9 or 2-9 after these playoffs and should not be an option IMO.

You keep going until the trade route becomes available for one of these guys, you don’t walk them to UFA. Resign Mitch, if things don’t work out you find a way to move him or someone from the core. I went back and read some of the reporting. They said Marner wasn’t open to a Mid-Season Move, which leads me to believe he might have been open to being moved in the offseason. I think there’s just way too much going on during the season. Plus life will look different, I can see a few players being ready to move on if they don’t win anything in next few years

 

[Leaf Fans]

Don Cherry on Marner resigning:

“It depends on how he does in the playoffs,” Cherry said. “If he gets a bunch of goals, I think he will stay.

”I think if he gasses like he did the last three times, I don’t think he will stay.”

Don hasnt been reading this board enough, he doesnt seem to understand that Marner is a pass first playmaker who shouldnt be judged on goals.

He is 91 years old. Give the guy break. He opinion is just as valid as anyone's.