Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Part 3758391849

[Gary Nylund]

I don’t really care for individuals to prove anything. As a team these guys need to figure it out, that includes the depth players. I don’t care who on the roster scores as long as they are scoring enough goals to win. At this point in the season individual success is secondary, we need scoring by committee. Bobby McMann could be our playoff scoring leader and I’d be happy if it led to 3 round wins

By "prove his worth", I assume he means that in the context of contract negotiations which of course are based on the performance of the individual, not the team. As far as the team goes, as long as we win I doubt anyone cares who does the scoring (except for maybe some of the diehard Marner fanboys).

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yep, Team sports isn't for everyone.

Um, wut?

 

[thewave]

A)36 Goals 119 points
B)26 goals 99 points
C)38 goals 74 points
How much more per year is player B worth than player C?
Certainly not more than 3 million. If it is, does it not stand to reason player A is worth 3 million or more per season than player B?

And here I am thinking I would rather pay later C. The idea of entertaining giving extra to player B over C is kinda strange. He is almost a 40 goal scorer

 

[Dekes For Days]

Eichel had also signed for 8 years...Kucherov around that time as well. It's debatable whether McDavid should have signed that contract, but it still made him the highest paid player in the league at time, and deservedly so. Matthews' contract was the anomaly.

Kucherov wasn't a post-ELC contract. He's irrelevant. Eichel was, but he also wasn't the same caliber of player, and Buffalo had tons of room to pay extra for term. 5 years is actually the most common term for high-end post-ELC contracts, and Matthews' cap hit percentage relative to term and pre-signing performance was consistent with post-ELC history. Same with Marner. There was nothing anomalous about the contracts.

 

[ToneDog]

A)36 Goals 119 points
B)26 goals 99 points
C)38 goals 74 points
How much more per year is player B worth than player C?
Certainly not more than 3 million. If it is, does it not stand to reason player A is worth 3 million or more per season than player B?

Players A and B cannot carry Mitch's jock strap. LOL.

 

[thewave]

I think an eye test would be super fun, so over the last eight years, here are eight players (GP-G-A-P-P/G).

Player A: 67-21-28-59-0.88
Player B: 57-11-39-50-0.88
Player C: 55-23-25-48-0.87
Player D: 65-17-39-56-0.86
Player E: 71-24-37-61-0.86
Player F: 79-35-31-66-0.84
Player G: 75-27-35-62-0.83
Player H: 66-19-35-54-0.82

Who is player A and H?

 

[ACC1224]

LEAFS NOTES: Mitch Marner making little fuss on the verge of 100 points

Mitch Marner has been on the cusp of triple figures before, but he wants the points record for a Leaf winger and his team to keep going.

torontosun.com

Marner would become the first Toronto winger to reach 100, after stalling at 99 two years ago after a high-intensity finish in his final regular season game that April to get triple figures.

 

[Confucius]

Who is player A and H?

Don’t know but I’m for sure taking players F and G

 

[Nineteen67]

I don’t really care for individuals to prove anything. As a team these guys need to figure it out, that includes the depth players. I don’t care who on the roster scores as long as they are scoring enough goals to win. At this point in the season individual success is secondary, we need scoring by committee. Bobby McMann could be our playoff scoring leader and I’d be happy if it led to 3 round wins

How he plays is still important. If he’s pushed out again this year, and they lose against Ottawa, they shouldn’t re-sign him.

 

[Nineteen67]

Changes nothing, they’ve said many times the plan is to re-sign him.

If he plays like like he did last year, they shouldn’t re-sign him unless he’s taking a massive discount.

 

[thewave]

Don’t know but I’m for sure taking players F and G

TW: G F E C are the best players on the list. Who did I select?

Bergeron, Stamkos, Tkachuk, Matthews

I also selected A but removed him. Would put back on second glance. No idea who it is. Maybe Nylander

 

[ToneDog]

Don’t know but I’m for sure taking players F and G

You can't pick without knowing the intangibles. For example, player B might be an overpaid, small, scared, play making winger who folds like a cheap suit case in the playoffs and thinks he should be one of the 5 highest paid players in the NHL or he can be an underpaid, leader, Selke winner who shuts down the opponent's best players and scores big goals in big moments of key playoff games. Which of those two would you choose?

 

[Dekes For Days]

need to see the 5v5 primary assist per 60 numbers over the last 5 years before conceding that Kucherov has been better than Marner over that period

Marner actually leads Kucherov in 5v5 primary assists per 60 over the past 5 years (1.24 > 1.15), and he led by even more in the year Marner signed (1.78 > 1.27). So ironically, it's the faulty cherry picked logic that Antropovsky used to misrepresent and put down Marner that is suggesting that Marner is/was better than Kucherov.

 

[ACC1224]

If he plays like like he did last year, they shouldn’t re-sign him unless he’s taking a massive discount.

He’s said all along he’s planning to sign him and he would be aware of how last years playoffs went.

 

[tuckerintensity]

Who is player A and H?

Ovechkin and Panarin.

Ovechkin
Marner
Matthews
Barkov
Thachuk
Stamkos
Panarin

 

[Craig Button]

JT probably signs yesterday if the Leafs offered $6.5-7m. Mitch wants almost double the money with little playoff success and wonders why the portion of the fan base that can't stand him is growing.

It is too bad the Leafs treat these guys with kids gloves and run the team like a business where making money trumps winning SCs. If they were run like the VGK or Avs, Marner would not be a Leaf today.

Neither would Nylander, Tavares, Matthews, Rielly and the players we got in exchange.

 

[tuckerintensity]

I think an eye test would be super fun, so over the last eight years, here are eight players (GP-G-A-P-P/G).

Player A: 67-21-28-59-0.88
Player B: 57-11-39-50-0.88
Player C: 55-23-25-48-0.87
Player D: 65-17-39-56-0.86
Player E: 71-24-37-61-0.86
Player F: 79-35-31-66-0.84
Player G: 75-27-35-62-0.83
Player H: 66-19-35-54-0.82

For posterity...

A: Ovechkin
B: Marner
C: Matthews
D: Barkov
E: Tkachuk (Matthew, obvs)
F: Stamkos
G: Bergeron
H: Panarin

The moral of this story, not that I expect anyone to change their tune, is that for all the talk of terrible production that goes around here, it's actually not. Are there players who are better? Certainly, there are monsters out there, but none of the players on this list are poor playoff producers over this time frame. This is pretty good company to keep, but we'll call a couple of these players flops, even though many of them will be called top playoff performers. It's whatever fits the narrative and not the "eye test" that started this exercise.

 

[Leaf Fans]

You can't pick without knowing the intangibles. For example, player B might be an overpaid, small, scared, play making winger who folds like a cheap suit case in the playoffs and thinks he should be one of the 5 highest paid players in the NHL or he can be an underpaid, leader, Selke winner who shuts down the opponent's best players and scores big goals in big moments of key playoff games. Which of those two would you choose?

He might be. He might also be Marner, or someone else entierly.

 

[Mess]

LEAFS NOTES: Mitch Marner making little fuss on the verge of 100 points

Mitch Marner has been on the cusp of triple figures before, but he wants the points record for a Leaf winger and his team to keep going.

torontosun.com

Winger Willy Nylander put up 98 points last year on 40 goals and it earned him $11.50 mil X 8 years

Winger Mitch Marner currently has 99 points this year on 26 goals.

How many more Millions does Marner want for currently 1 more point than Willy produced?

PS. Mikko Rantanen just re-signed for $12 mil AAV X 8 years and he has had multiple 100+ point seasons. Lets not forget our GM Treliving was willing to deal Marner for Rantanen 1-1 at the TD.

Based on comparables both internal and external it would seem Marner is due for a raise up to $11.75 mil X 8 years (full term).

 

[thewave]

Winger Willy Nylander put up 98 points last year on 40 goals and it earned him $11.50 mil X 8 years

View attachment 1014220

Winger Mitch Marner currently has 99 points this year on 26 goals.

View attachment 1014222

How many more Millions does Marner want for currently 1 more point than Willy produced?

PS. Mikko Rantanen just re-signed for $12 mil AAV X 8 years and he has had multiple 100+ point seasons. Lets not forget our GM Treliving was willing to deal Marner for Rantanen 1-1 at the TD.

View attachment 1014223

Based on comparables both internal and external it would seem Marner is due for a raise up to $11.75 mil X 8 years (full term).

The right thing to do is to reward goal scoring but nobody around here wants to do that.

Pretend Marner ends the season at 101pts and you have to make a blind choice between two players based on a single year's stats only.

98 PT 40 goal Vs 101pt 26 goal. 11.5m gets you either or. Who would you select?

 

[ACC1224]

Winger Willy Nylander put up 98 points last year on 40 goals and it earned him $11.50 mil X 8 years

View attachment 1014220

Winger Mitch Marner currently has 99 points this year on 26 goals.

View attachment 1014222

How many more Millions does Marner want for currently 1 more point than Willy produced?

PS. Mikko Rantanen just re-signed for $12 mil AAV X 8 years and he has had multiple 100+ point seasons. Lets not forget our GM Treliving was willing to deal Marner for Rantanen 1-1 at the TD.

View attachment 1014223

Based on comparables both internal and external it would seem Marner is due for a raise up to $11.75 mil X 8 years (full term).

Winger Willy Nylander put up 98 points last year on 40 goals and it earned him $11.50 mil X 8 years

View attachment 1014220

Winger Mitch Marner currently has 99 points this year on 26 goals.

View attachment 1014222

How many more Millions does Marner want for currently 1 more point than Willy produced?

PS. Mikko Rantanen just re-signed for $12 mil AAV X 8 years and he has had multiple 100+ point seasons. Lets not forget our GM Treliving was willing to deal Marner for Rantanen 1-1 at the TD.

View attachment 1014223

Based on comparables both internal and external it would seem Marner is due for a raise up to $11.75 mil X 8 years (full term).

 

[thewave]

View attachment 1014234

And then you factor that Nylander plays on the second line. Things sort of change after that. Likely to the point where JT has extra goals, Marner has around 85pts and Nylander is closer to 100pts as a first liner.

 

[Confucius]

For posterity...

A: Ovechkin
B: Marner
C: Matthews
D: Barkov
E: Tkachuk (Matthew, obvs)
F: Stamkos
G: Bergeron
H: Panarin

The moral of this story, not that I expect anyone to change their tune, is that for all the talk of terrible production that goes around here, it's actually not. Are there players who are better? Certainly, there are monsters out there, but none of the players on this list are poor playoff producers over this time frame. This is pretty good company to keep, but we'll call a couple of these players flops, even though many of them will be called top playoff performers. It's whatever fits the narrative and not the "eye test" that started this exercise.

NHL & WHA Career Playoff Leaders and Records for Points Per Game | Hockey-Reference.com

1. Wayne Gretzky (1.837), 2. Mario Lemieux (1.607), 3. Connor McDavid (1.581), 4. Barry Pederson (1.529), 5. Leon Draisaitl (1.459), 6. Nathan MacKinnon (1.295), 7. Mark Messier (1.250), 8. Mikko Rantanen (1.247), 9. Bobby Orr (1.243), 10. Mike Bossy (1.240)

www.hockey-reference.com

Amongst active players Mitchranks 18th in playoff points per game avg.
behind players such as Marchand, Guentzel, Aho etc etc. let’s pay him accordingly.

And amongst goal per game it is only worse
Mathew’s ranks 10th with current players
Jt ranks 22nd
William ranks 24th
Mitch doesn’t appear on the list as there are only 55 current players on the list of all time 250 best.

 

[Smif]

Not at what he's asking salary wise.

$13M is going to be a steal within 2-3 years. McDavid will get $15-16M and that will set the next wave of the Bedards and Celebrini's to make $13M nothing special. It was the same thing when Benn, Seguin, Toews and Kane signed.

 

[Smif]

And then you factor that Nylander plays on the second line. Things sort of change after that. Likely to the point where JT has extra goals, Marner has around 85pts and Nylander is closer to 100pts as a first liner.

Did you happen to notice the Sh% of the second line??