Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Part 3758391849

[francis246]

Yes you need to be rational about this thing. These guys are itching to pay a player big bucks and I can't even understand why.

And many of you are itching to pay mid players big bucks and I can’t understand why.

 

[francis246]

Who’s been better than Marner this season?

Casper the friendly ghost

 

[thewave]

And many of you are itching to pay mid players big bucks and I can’t understand why.

What mid player? If it's Knies, yes. Stolarz, yes.

 

[Menzinger]

The problem is building through UFAs usually doesnt work

You let marner walk and bring some expensive well known players in late 20s or early 30s, that has major blowup in your face risk

You pay marner 13-14M even if he plays bad in this uear playoffs and we are out R1 or early R2 then your giving up on chance of improvimg the team and going for a WSH 2018 1 time cup scenerio.

The issue for us is management will be aiming to "contend" either with 16 or without. Ownership/management has not shown themselves to be shrewed enougj to pull of a 1/2 year retool where we may miss the playoffs but find gems who break onto the team and be good supporting pieces for a number of years to come

We likely will give Marner 13-14M just due to familiarty and known output with him/this core.

What the team is willing or unwilling to give Marner is irrelevant at this point.

The media reports have consistently said the Marner camp doesn't want to negotiate until the end of the season (if at all). They may not have the option to give him 13 or 14 mil

 

[arso40]

I guess you have a different definition of best all round player.

I don’t see how any of the goalies, Tanev, McCabe being all around players.

Nylander he’s a somewhat more than a one dimensional player.

Great with his stick on the offensive zone but definitely not an all around player.

Sorry I Ignored best all around and just went for best players this year my apologies

 

[francis246]

What mid player? If it's Knies, yes. Stolarz, yes.

That’s not who we’re talking about, yall think we are gonna build this thing through UFA. There are people who truly believe we will get some combination of Ekblad, Ehlers, Bennett and Boeser for under 22 million. You can’t make this shit up. What are the odds a team signs 2-3 of the top 10 star free agents?

The last team to do it was Minnesota with Parise and Suter, Bill Guérin wasted no time buying out those contracts immediately. That should be a sign, we should learn from that situation. Even then the odds of them taking less than market value to sign here and ensure 2 or 3 of them come, is zero to none

 

[arso40]

Crazy, how can someone who hasn’t negotiated at all this season be hell bent on a significant raise?

Are you being serious? lol we know marner wants to paid in the top tier of the nhl are you suggesting that he who wouldn’t negotiate through the year is willing to take a haircut?

 

[arso40]

Casper the friendly ghost

Just remember stopping shots and and putting shots in the net are the difference in winning and losing games

 

[francis246]

Are you being serious? lol we know marner wants to paid in the top tier of the nhl are you suggesting that he who wouldn’t negotiate through the year is willing to take a haircut?

No im suggesting that people stop making up fairy tale numbers and look at the situation for what it is. He doesn’t care to be the highest paid leaf. If we are to believe the rumours the leafs have reached out to offer a number that would make him a top 10 paid NHL player.

This isn’t about money and it never has been. It’s been about Marner’s ego and how he feels he’s been treated in Toronto. (I don’t agree with how he’s going about it, for what it’s worth) but it’s pretty clear he has always felt slighted by the organization and now he has full leverage and is taking advantage of it. He’s going to make the fans sweat, he’s going to make the organization sweat. It’s not about how much he’s going to get paid, it’s Marner waiting to see if the fans or the team will appreciate him the way he feels he should be after all these years. I don’t know why he’s choosing to deal with it like this, but he is.

It’s not a money play at all. The money is here in Toronto, he’s deciding whether he’s done here for good or wants to stay in this market, that’s all.

 

[arso40]

No im suggesting that people stop making up fairy tale numbers and look at the situation for what it is. He doesn’t care to be the highest paid leaf. If we are to believe the rumours the leafs have reached out to offer a number that would make him a top 10 paid NHL player.

This isn’t about money and it never has been. It’s been about Marner’s ego and how he feels he’s been treated in Toronto. (I don’t agree with how he’s going about it, for what it’s worth) but it’s pretty clear he has always felt slighted by the organization and now he has full leverage and is taking advantage of it. He’s going to make the fans sweat, he’s going to make the organization sweat. It’s not about how much he’s going to get paid, it’s Marner waiting to see if the fans or the team will appreciate him the way he feels he should be after all these years. I don’t know why he’s choosing to deal with it like this, but he is.

It’s not a money play at all. The money is here in Toronto, he’s deciding whether he’s done here for good or wants to stay in this market, that’s all.

Never said highest paid leaf cause that’s Matthews but he does want to paid similar to Matthews that’s been his comp at the negotiation table once before

 

[Antropovsky]

What we are seeing is peak Marner, some people still comparing him to players who had 140 plus point seasons, or players that have had multiple 50 plus goal seasons, that’s just wrong.. Especially since Mitch will only have 3 or 4 more peak seasons left.
Why not compare him to players who have had similar peak seasons, JTMiller, Peterson, Kyle Connor,, Jason Robertson and many more that have scored 25 goals and have had 90 plus points seasons.

When Marner signed.... i was told he's better than Kucherov. Same posters that are in this thread right now. Bet they won't admir they said it though... @Dekes For Days ?

 

[Antropovsky]

No im suggesting that people stop making up fairy tale numbers and look at the situation for what it is. He doesn’t care to be the highest paid leaf. If we are to believe the rumours the leafs have reached out to offer a number that would make him a top 10 paid NHL player.

This isn’t about money and it never has been. It’s been about Marner’s ego and how he feels he’s been treated in Toronto. (I don’t agree with how he’s going about it, for what it’s worth) but it’s pretty clear he has always felt slighted by the organization and now he has full leverage and is taking advantage of it. He’s going to make the fans sweat, he’s going to make the organization sweat. It’s not about how much he’s going to get paid, it’s Marner waiting to see if the fans or the team will appreciate him the way he feels he should be after all these years. I don’t know why he’s choosing to deal with it like this, but he is.

It’s not a money play at all. The money is here in Toronto, he’s deciding whether he’s done here for good or wants to stay in this market, that’s all.

He wants a short term deal. He tried it last time and everyone refused. He doesn't want to he the highest paid leaf but he wants to make way more money than his comparables over his career. Getting overpaid on his last contract wasn't enough.

 

[francis246]

Never said highest paid leaf cause that’s Matthews but he does want to paid similar to Matthews that’s been his comp at the negotiation table once before

Speculative, we don’t know what Marner wants. Not even the leafs organization knows. That’s why they went to him at the trade deadline. He hasn’t made it clear what his wants are, which is why I highly doubt this is a money thing.

I think this is a hurt ego thing. I don’t know Marner personally, but I would bet a lot of money, he’d take less money than he’d sign for in Toronto to sign in another market IMO. For example, I think he’d take less to go play with Crosby in Pittsburgh or if Washington came calling. I think everything is situational. The situation in Toronto has gotten to a point where it might be beyond repair unless they win

 

[hamzarocks]

Exactly as expected, most people do not like the eye test because they either have to say someone isn't as bad as they thought or players often cited as the best are the same as the guy they don't like.



Bergeron, Stamkos, Tkachuk, Matthews.

The fun part of this exercise is that these are the closest forwards to each other in terms of P/G (50 games or more) but only two are are described as playoff duds, five of them would be described as the opposite. If we looked at numbers post-2000, a few other names show up in this group (.88 to .82). They include playoff duds like Brad Marchand, Henrik Zetterberg, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Jarome Iginla, and Marty St. Louis.

I think you really have to be free of bias when making this type of comparison. Its a titled comparison to look at guys playing past R1 vs leaf stars who onky have R1 career stats. Their 1 R2 we saw Marner with 3 in 5, Nylander with 3 in 5 and Matthews with 2 in 5.

Also The names you mentioned for post 2000 group, there is a lot missed when looking at superstars of an era where the stars put the numbers again over multiple rounds vs only R1, scoring was lower, goalies were better and you include age 35+/post prime years for career comparison for this group vs Marner(or a nylander/Matthews) all having been in their primes without their decline years in mid 30s included in their career averages.

Zetterberg --> has numbers over multiple deep playoff runs in lower scoring environment. His peak he won the cinn symthe and outside of that in his prime he was constantly a great 2-way 1C who could line match and put ppg up.

Toews & Kane --> have their numbers over 5 deep playoff runs in a tight checking WC in a low scoring environment. They both have a Conn Smythe and were two if the top 5/6 playoff performers in the NHL from 2006 to 2015

Marchand --> You include his numbers before he broke out to a superstar to get him into the cutoff. We have seen what Brad Marchand does first hand in 2018, 2019 and 2024. He was much much better than any leaf in all three of those series. He had 99 pts in 91 games from 2017 to 2024 playoffs (89 pts per 82)

Iginla --> he's the worst playoff performer of this group. He did play on the worst team, in a lot of DPE hockey (his whole career basically besides any runs in maybe 06 & 07 if flames made it) but still had a strong run in 04 where flames lost in 7 to the Bolts.

MSL --> won a cup + had another deep ECF run. His career numbers on Tampa (age 35 and prior) were ~89 pt per 82 player over 65 games. His age 38 and 39 playoffs drag his numbers down when he was a 3rd liner with the Rangers

Marner has put up hus numbers in R1 which is the easiest you get generally as you have more open stylef games, less worn out players on your teams, refs call more stuff in R1 vs deeper and your playing worse team in a R1 vs R3 or R4

Marner/Nylander/Matthews numbers all are really trash considering they put them up in R1 almost every time (1 2nd round run).

You would need to look at the current players playoffs by round and compare vs Leaf stars since those guys would have R2/R3/R4 (potentially depending on whose in there)

 

[francis246]

He wants a short term deal. He tried it last time and everyone refused. He doesn't want to he the highest paid leaf but he wants to make way more money than his comparables over his career. Getting overpaid on his last contract wasn't enough.

This I agree with as well, I think he’s looking to max out earnings now but I also think he’s ego has been hurt for so long lol and now he’s kinda taking it out on the team by not negotiating

 

[CabanaBoy5]

During the intermission of the Carolina game, the question was asked which Leaf is the MVP this season, and they all agreed it's Marner. I have to agree for what it's worth. Now it would be something if he could be our MVP in the playoffs.

 

[LeafEgo]

Looking at the Willy/Matty contracts, Tre seems to have widdled down the dubie tax to 750k.

The good number for Mitch is between 11.5M and 12M. Add the dubie tax and 12.5M seems most likely if Tre brings him back.

 

[hamzarocks]

A

He wants a short term deal. He tried it last time and everyone refused. He doesn't want to he the highest paid leaf but he wants to make way more money than his comparables over his career. Getting overpaid on his last contract wasn't enough.

Short term deal would be bad/riskty for Marner

We just saw Matthews leauge wide reputation fall after a down year in his first season of 4 on his new deal.

There is risk a 3-4 year deal could be his last major payday. He could see injuries (has had a few ankle injuries already) and could be a mid 80s pt player by age 32 at which pt his AAV would go down not up

The only way a short deal works for him is 2 years term and he has a monster season next year (not this yea where hes a fringe top 10 player) a year where he can win a major award (ross/hart/lindsay) and then signs right away in 2026 summer at time of eligibability.

That type of deal likely isnt on the table with leafs or most/any contenders. It would be a deal that a Chicago or Philly or other low tier team would offer in hopes of him putting great numbers annd kicking their offenses and yoyng players path to stars up a notch

 

[Antropovsky]

This I agree with as well, I think he’s looking to max out earnings now but I also think he’s ego has been hurt for so long lol and now he’s kinda taking it out on the team by not negotiating

No he's doing the very same thing to the letter that he did last time.

 

[The Apologist]

During the intermission of the Carolina game, the question was asked which Leaf is the MVP this season, and they all agreed it's Marner. I have to agree for what it's worth. Now it would be something if he could be our MVP in the playoffs.

I'd take him just being slightly above average.

I remember him blocking shots that first year against Washington. Not sure he's blocked one since.

 

[LeafEgo]

Bleacher Report rankings of right wingers over the last three years:

Ranta: 3rd, 3rd, 3rd
Mitch: 4th, 4th, 6th
Willy: 10th, 5th, 4th

I'm guessing this year Ranta takes 5th (awkward year), and Mitch/Willy each take one of 3rd and 4th.

Kuch is the perennial #1 and Pasta is the perennial #2.

Probably pretty close to how the market sees them.

 

[Gary Nylund]

If people saw that post on its own, they would think I was talking about his overall play. That's all I was saying. Do you get it?

Might be a silly complaint from me I admit but I was actually hoping to avoid having to explain to someone what I meant and I still have to lol. Feel like you are doing this on purpose to drive me nuts.

If your point was to avoid the rest of what I said, mission accomplished heh.

Agreed.

 

[Superstar]

A

Short term deal would be bad/riskty for Marner

We just saw Matthews leauge wide reputation fall after a down year in his first season of 4 on his new deal.

There is risk a 3-4 year deal could be his last major payday. He could see injuries (has had a few ankle injuries already) and could be a mid 80s pt player by age 32 at which pt his AAV would go down not up

The only way a short deal works for him is 2 years term and he has a monster season next year (not this yea where hes a fringe top 10 player) a year where he can win a major award (ross/hart/lindsay) and then signs right away in 2026 summer at time of eligibability.

That type of deal likely isnt on the table with leafs or most/any contenders. It would be a deal that a Chicago or Philly or other low tier team would offer in hopes of him putting great numbers annd kicking their offenses and yoyng players path to stars up a notch

I was perplexed when Matthews signed that 4 year deal. Matthews signing that 4 year deal was a big mistake, and I'm not sure who'd advised him to do that...they're probably thinking that Matthews could get $15 to $16 million for another 4 years after this current deal...at this rate, Matthews would be lucky to not have fallen apart injury wise at the end of this current contract. What team is going to sign Matthews for $15 to $16 million when he's 31?

 

[Antropovsky]

During the intermission of the Carolina game, the question was asked which Leaf is the MVP this season, and they all agreed it's Marner. I have to agree for what it's worth. Now it would be something if he could be our MVP in the playoffs.

I think Nylander, Marner, Goalies, Tavares all have all have had their turns. I definitely don't think it's Marner alone.

I would probably give it to Tavares, if I needed to pick someone.

Nylander has 45 goals and has played around 70% of the time with an 11 million dollar linemate. That's pretty damn impressive too.

 

[hamzarocks]

I think Nylander, Marner, Goalies, Tavares all have all have had their turns. I definitely don't think it's Marner alone.

I would probably give it to Tavares, if I needed to pick someone.

Nylander has 45 goals and has played around 70% of the time with an 11 million dollar linemate. That's pretty damn impressive too.

Tavares is a ppg player

Marner is a 100 pt player, nylander a 85 pt player, Matthews a 95 pt player

Tavares is having a strong year but hes the 5th or 6th best leaf

Marner
Nylander
Matthews
Tanev
Stolarz

Have all been better than him