Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Part 3758391849

[IPS]

One of the very few times you might actually get a more objective discussion on the main board about a Leafs player.

101 points in 81 playoff games - f***ing amazing how you can just toss that to the side and think it doesn't even deserve to be acknowledged but killing some penalties apparently makes you worth millions more.

These folks really, really need to wrap their head around the fact that defensive ability from wingers just isn't all that coveted. Wingers have and always will be the complimentary piece to the defensive core structure of the center and the 2 D on the ice. Blackhawks fans never gave a shit about how bad Kane was defensively, and you never heard one Blackhawks fan argue ever that Hossa was as good as Kane despite not producing like him because he was elite defensively.

 

[Zybalto]

Below is what you said, I quoted you directly, and you're crazy.

Away from MacKinnon overall, Rantanen is, at best, a 5 million dollar player.

Yes, I said that, and no you said in that response:

Yeah whatever, saying he's worth 5 million tops is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off.

Notice you left out I was saying "away from MacKinnon overall" in your quote. Maybe its just the format but I like to be quoted accurately. Otherwise the impression folks would get is that I thought he was only worth 5 million. Thats all I was saying there.

How much do you think a 20 minute, 25 goal, 60 point player whos meh defensively, doesnt PK and has trouble scoring at even strength is worth? Thats what he has been outside of Mac. Some guys continue to thrive in new environments (Guentzel), some falter (Meier) and some find another gear (Bennett).

Nothing crazy about that take no? I even say hes not that and will pick it up and praise him otherwise and even purposely left out defensive numbers in my Mac comparisons as it makes him look even worse.

 

[IPS]

The mods get very spicy when specific usernames get brought up so I won't do that anymore. But boy oh boy are there are some familiar faces from the Nylander negotiations with Pastrnak being a very common comparable and how Pastrnak also had his numbers inflated by the Bergeron/Marchand duo and how his numbers just fell off away from them. Turned out to be a massive crock of shit.

They can't help themselves but do the same thing with Rantanen now.

 

[Legion34]

How about we have a swap.

Rielly moves to forward and marner moves to defense.

marner can't win the Rocket, maybe he joins the Makar, Hughes smaller defenders ranks and goes for the Norris?

He said he likes it back there.

Why in the world can’t he just be our 2c in the future.

he is a playmaker. 6ft tall. Nominated for the selke. And coach literally trusts him to play actual defence. Makes zero sense.


Knies. Matthews. Domi
Mcmann. Marner. Nylander
Laughton. Tavares. Jarnkrok

 

[arso40]

..... is he though? His shots stat advanced stats are dreadful. Players cheating to Matthews, opens Marner up for easier shots.

Marners individual scoring chances, high danger scoring chances, fenwick, overall shots, and xgf are pathetic. Kucherov is a much better playmaker than Marner and EVEN his shot stats blow Marners out of the water.

He’s still better than domi if your asking if he’s over 7-8 mil better that’s a better convo but marner is definitely better not a debate my friend

 

[notDatsyuk]

????

You completly missed the point here, ... I would took Matthews if that would fit...

The point was just comparing marner / domi assist per 60 mean absolutly nothing the same way goal/60 nylander/ robertson/ mcmann mean absolutly nothing...That's doesn't make Domi a better playmaker or robertson/mcmann better goal scorer because they able to get similar stats...

Maybe I didn't miss your point - I just confimed it by using another totally irrelevant set of stats.

The only difference being that mine aren't specifically selected to try to denigrate a player I personally dislike.

 

[arso40]

Are we taking your word that opposition has always been tougher? They played 100 minutes apart from 2021-2023. Show me who they played against (opposition) with and without. Marner and Matthews. Show your work.

I showed the stats.... Marner without Matthews (but still with an 11 million center) was abysmal.

Matthews definitely gets the harder matchup dont kid yourself

 

[1specter]

One of the very few times you might actually get a more objective discussion on the main board about a Leafs player.

101 points in 81 playoff games - f***ing amazing how you can just toss that to the side and think it doesn't even deserve to be acknowledged but killing some penalties apparently makes you worth millions more.

These folks really, really need to wrap their head around the fact that defensive ability from wingers just isn't all that coveted. Wingers have and always will be the complimentary piece to the defensive core structure of the center and the 2 D on the ice. Blackhawks fans never gave a shit about how bad Kane was defensively, and you never heard one Blackhawks fan argue ever that Hossa was as good as Kane despite not producing like him because he was elite defensively.

The ironic thing is we all thought / hoped Marner would be our Patrick Kane in the 'Chicago formula'. Now I've lowered my expectations and at this point I'll just take a Marian Hossa level performance - if you're so good defensively Mitch then play that shutdown role and score a few timely goals here and there to help us advance, forget him being a playoff point machine like Kane, it ain't happening. Nylander can play the Kane role instead.

 

[arso40]

last year vs marchand or pastrnak line
marner 80M (81%)
Matthews 47 m (65%)

2023
Matthews
vs 1sr 21% of matthews ice time
2 nd 59%

Marner vs 1st 31%
marner vs 2nd 46%

main difference was matthews played vs tampa shutdown line ( killorn-cirelli-hagel) and marner vs stamkos-point-kucherov line more when split

vs florida they played together basically all the time so basically the same

2022
2nd 44%
1st 26%
Matthews without marner he only played 28% vs top 6

marner
1st 29%
2nd 47%
Marner without matthews at 68% vs top 6

Just to give you an sample because i don't have enough to do more

Marner played every game Matthews didnt

 

[IPS]

The ironic thing is we all thought / hoped Marner would be our Patrick Kane in the 'Chicago formula'. Now I've lowered my expectations and at this point I'll just take a Marian Hossa level performance - if you're so good defensively Mitch then play that shutdown role and score a few timely goals here and there to help us advance, forget him being a playoff point machine like Kane, it ain't happening. Nylander can play the Kane role instead.

Hope this playoff can change the story. Already well aware that Marner is going to be signed to an overpayment - but it's quite annoying after 8 years reading just how superior our players are than everyone else's despite having accomplished precisely jack shit. Doesn't apply to just Marner either, Matthews is paid to be Mackinnon level and he ain't that guy either. Like I said, we need a story changing playoffs.

 

[Superstar]

How many times you hit some arbitrary point total doesn't actually matter. Marner is a better offensive and defensive player in each individual game state and overall. Rantanen's production has been inflated throughout his career with the most empty net points in the league, and being on the team that gets the most PP time in the league, and he's still fallen short. Marner is also a better player than Nylander, who's already gotten a contract worth the equivalent of about 13m under a 95.5m cap. As for the playoffs, there's more to impact than production, and these small samples of production skewed by the very different situations they experience doesn't change what they are.

On one end, you say a cap increase benefits both the team and player, on the another end, you're also indicating Marner should take the full benefit of a salary cap increase with $13 million plus, so which is it? You could pull advance stats all you want, but Marner has been a dud in the playoffs over the near decade he's been here, and a dud in the playoffs for all those years that Dubas overpaid him for the near $11 million salary. Let's hope for the Leafs sake, he could turn it around these playoffs.

In their teens and early 20's you could argue Marner has the greater potential and is head and shoulders above Nylander as a player, but you cannot make that case anymore...they are grown men, and we know what they are...they are comparable, and Nylander is a bigger threat to score. If you want to pay Marner more than Nylander, then pay him $12 million...$13 million plus is ridiculous for 7 or 8 more years...guy is going to fall off a cliff as an older player in a few years.

 

[Mugzy97]

On one end, you say a cap increase benefits both the team and player, on the another end, you're also indicating Marner should take the full benefit of a salary cap increase with $13 million plus, so which is it? You could pull advance stats all you want, but Marner has been a dud in the playoffs over the near decade he's been here, and a dud in the playoffs for all those years that Dubas overpaid him for the near $11 million salary. Let's hope for the Leafs sake, he could turn it around these playoffs.

In their teens and early 20's you could argue Marner has the greater potential and is head and shoulders above Nylander as a player, but you cannot make that case anymore...they are grown men, and we know what they are...they are comparable, and Nylander is a bigger threat to score. If you want o pay Marner more than Nylander, then pay him $12 million...$13 million plus is ridiculous for 7 or 8 more years...guy is going to fall off a cliff as an older player in a few years.

Nylander is definitely a bigger threat to score, but that’s about all he’s got over Marner.

Marner is only 27 about to turn 28 so he is nowhere near “an older player”.

I really hope they sign him for 8 more years. We will greatly benefit from having him around.

 

[ACC1224]

Nylander is definitely a bigger threat to score, but that’s about all he’s got over Marner.

Marner is only 27 about to turn 28 so he is nowhere near “an older player”.

I really hope they sign him for 8 more years. We will greatly benefit from having him around.

He's shown his value this season, most would agree he's been the best all around player this year.
Teams don't let those players walk.

 

[Superstar]

Nylander is definitely a bigger threat to score, but that’s about all he’s got over Marner.

Marner is only 27 about to turn 28 so he is nowhere near “an older player”.

I really hope they sign him for 8 more years. We will greatly benefit from having him around.

Scoring goals is one of the most important parts of the game.

I didn't mean he's older than Willy, but will be older in a few years...he won't be a spring chicken in few years, that's for sure...how much it benefits depends on how much he's paid if the Leafs sign him again.

 

[Mugzy97]

He's shown his value this season, most would agree he's been the best all around player this year.
Teams don't let those players walk.

Funny that the same people who want him gone are the ones who complain when our offence isn’t going. Mitch Marner is driving the bus for this team when it comes to offence. Auston Matthews doesn’t score 69 without Mitch Marner. On top of that he leads our team in points almost every year and is the #1 option when on the PK or trying to preserve a lead. He’s (arguably) our best player since he joined the team.

And to let him walk… for what? Cap space? A crapshoot to sign someone else who may or may not be available? It’s actually an insane line of thinking.

 

[Mugzy97]

Scoring goals is one of the most important parts of the game.

I didn't mean he's older than Willy, but will be older in a few years...he won't be a spring chicken in few years, that's for sure...how much it benefits depends on how much he's paid if the Leafs sign him again.

Having Mitch from age 28-36 would be incredible in my opinion.

 

[francis246]

IMO if you aren't mentally prepared to see Marner sign with another team and then be gaslit by the media and hater fanbases you are doing yourself a disservice.

The acceptable outcomes to me are A) We win the cup and then I don't care what we pay him or B) he decides he wants to be a Leaf and part of the solution and takes a fair market deal.

Overpaying him can't and won't happen with an early exit. Marner has no interest in dealing with the Toronto market after another early exit where he then bends over the leafs. Leafs management are aware of their reputation and won't want to look that way either.

He is very likely gone. And I am fine with that.

The leafs are losers in both situations IMO. The leafs are going to come out looking like fools either way. You’re going to have a section pissed off they let this guy with his talent walk for free, you going to have a section pissed off that you resigned him.

If they don’t go deep in the playoffs, he walks and they don’t do anything of significance in UFA. All hell will break lose, the triple whammy would be McDavid signing an extension on July 1st. I think at that point people would just lose their minds.

I don’t see a scenario where the leafs look good unless a) they win the cup, 2) Marner has a great playoffs and is resigned at a reasonable cap hit

 

[Superstar]

Having Mitch from age 28-36 would be incredible in my opinion.

Not at what he's asking salary wise.

 

[ACC1224]

The leafs are losers in both situations IMO. The leafs are going to come out looking like fools either way. You’re going to have a section pissed off they let this guy with his talent walk for free, you going to have a section pissed off that you resigned him.

If they don’t go deep in the playoffs, he walks and they don’t do anything of significance in UFA. All hell will break lose, the triple whammy would be McDavid signing an extension on July 1st. I think at that point people would just lose their minds.

I don’t see a scenario where the leafs look good unless a) they win the cup, 2) Marner has a great playoffs and is resigned at a reasonable cap hit

I fully expect McDavid to re-sign with the Oilers, hopefully he does it July 1 or soon after.

*** IMO, the absolute worst scenario the team could find themselves in is they go out in the 1st round but Marner continues to be their best player.

 

[ACC1224]

Scoring goals is one of the most important parts of the game.

I didn't mean he's older than Willy, but will be older in a few years...he won't be a spring chicken in few years, that's for sure...how much it benefits depends on how much he's paid if the Leafs sign him again.

Why the concern with Marner aging but not Nylander?

 

[thusk]

Marner played every game Matthews didnt

Vs Boston yeah but change absolutly nothing to the stats %

47 of 73 minutes (64%)he played was Boston top 6 (

80 of 99 Minutes (81%) Marner plated was against Boston top 6

Maybe I didn't miss your point - I just confimed it by using another totally irrelevant set of stats.

The only difference being that mine aren't specifically selected to try to denigrate a player I personally dislike.

1- I couldn't take Matthews who scored at a rate of 1,44 and Tavares would not had the same impact than Nylander but if you really want it... let's use it with Tavares, i don't have any problem with it. He's scoring at a rate of 0,98/60 vs Mcmann at 1,11 of robertson at 1,15... That still doesn't make Mcmann /Robertson better goal scorer or JT worst...That's telling the same exact thing i was telling but if that can make you happy, just use That one with JT


2-I only dislike one part of Nylander and it's his work ethic. When he's taking shift/ game off... That's it... Outside this part i really like the player the same way i liked Kessel because for me they are pretty similar type of player. When he's active and implicated, he's a hell of a player and probably best leafs player.. when he's just surfing on the ice watching his teammate doing everything, he pretty frustating to watch

 

[Mugzy97]

Not at what he's asking salary wise.

Salary negotiations are just that - negotiations. Of course he’s going to ask for a lot and use the best comparables.

They’re not going to sign him for whatever he wants, they will sign him to a value that both sides deem fair, and I am ok with whatever that number ends up being.

 

[Dekes For Days]

On one end, you say a cap increase benefits both the team and player, on the another end, you're also indicating Marner should take the full benefit of a salary cap increase with $13 million plus, so which is it?

Getting 13m isn't taking the whole increase. It's taking his percentage of the increase.
For example, if the cap was increasing from 100m to 110m, a player signing for 15% would get 1.5m of that 10m increase, and the team benefits from the other 8.5m.

You could pull advance stats all you want, but Marner has been a dud in the playoffs over the near decade he's been here, and a dud in the playoffs for all those years that Dubas overpaid him for the near $11 million salary.

Marner was never overpaid, and he's not a "dud" in the playoffs by any measure, advanced or not. Even by just production, he's been the best on the team, and is one of the better playoff producers in the league. Not equalling the production of some of the highest playoff producers in NHL history for very obvious reasons that you choose to ignore does not make one a dud.

In their teens and early 20's you could argue Marner has the greater potential and is head and shoulders above Nylander as a player, but you cannot make that case anymore...they are grown men, and we know what they are...they are comparable, and Nylander is a bigger threat to score. If you want o pay Marner more than Nylander, then pay him $12 million...$13 million plus is ridiculous for 7 or 8 more years...guy is going to fall off a cliff as an older player in a few years.

While the gap is not as big as it once was, Marner is still easily the better player. There's more to a player than goalscoring. Paying Marner 12m would be paying Marner less than Nylander. 13m, and even higher, is in no way ridiculous, and there is zero reason to believe that Marner is going to "fall off a cliff" anytime remotely soon. In fact, he's likely to last longer than most players, considering how he generates his impact. Nylander is probably the biggest worry in that regard, with how he relies on speed.

 

[Superstar]

Why the concern with Marner aging but not Nylander?

That depends on salary, isn't that what we've been talking about?

 

[Antropovsky]

Matthews definitely gets the harder matchup dont kid yourself

Yea, without a doubt. If the oppositions coach has a say, Matthews gets the difficult matchup.