Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Part 3758391849

[thewave]

Yep.

...Rantanen has as many playoff goals in his past two PO seasons as Marner has in his PO career. About equal in total points over his past 3 POs.

This is not the equal to or better than I learned about in School.

 

[Zybalto]

...Rantanen has as many playoff goals in his past two PO seasons as Marner has in his PO career. About equal in total points over his past 3 POs.

This is not the equal to or better than I learned about in School.

Suspended my criticism until after round 1.

You lasted longer than I thought.

 

[Zybalto]

Marner threads in a nutshell:

 

[Dekes For Days]

...Rantanen has as many playoff goals in his past two PO seasons as Marner has in his PO career. About equal in total points over his past 3 POs.
This is not the equal to or better than I learned about in School.

In school, you would have learned not to compare players by cherry picking raw production in small samples of very different situations without context.

 

[francis246]

Marner has 8 5v5 goals during that time...

And we’ve been told goals are more valuable than assists!!

 

[Antropovsky]

Regular season you are correct but when Marner splits from Matthews, he takes on the tougher comp allowing Matthews to feed. In all three scenarios, the lines are above 60% goal differential due to defensive acumen. The playoffs has been a bit different.

Over the last 3 playoffs 5v5:
Marner with Matthews:
Goals for/60: 3.53
Goals Against/60: 2.06

Marner without Matthews:
Goals for/60: 2.39
Goals Against/60: 1.18

Matthews without Marner:
Goals for/60: 1.66
Goals Against/60: 2.06

Both Marner and especially Matthews drop quite a bit offensiely when split up in the playoffs although Marner has an insanely low goals against. The main argument in keeping Matthews and Marner together is that Matthews has been pretty brutal away from Marner and they are a rock solid first line 5v5 in the playoffs. The whole team has blown chunks on the PP though.


I agree and said as much earlier.

... ignoring last playoffs, the previous 3 years Matthews and Marner with and without eachother.

2020-2023
330 mins with Marner
106 mins without Marner

Corsi Marner without Matthews: 42%
Corsi Matthews without Marner: 46%

Corsi Marner without Matthews: 44%
Corsi Matthews without Marner: 49%

Shots for Matthews without Marner: 49%
Shots for Marner without Matthews: 44%

xgf% for Matthews without Marner: 52%
Xgf% for Marner without Matthews: 43%

Scoring chances for Matthews without Marner: 45%
Scoring chances for Marner without Matthews: 40%

High danger scoring chances for Matthews without Marner: 53%
High danger scoring chances for Matthews without Marner: 46%

So... Marner despite playing with 11 million #1 center Tavares, without Matthews he's quite comfortably under 50% vs his opponents.

While Matthews, without an 11 million dollar linemate is usually pretty comfortably above 50%.

Looks like Matthews is maybe worth his money but Marner definitely isnt.

 

[thusk]

... ignoring last playoffs, the previous 3 years Matthews and Marner with and without eachother.

2020-2023
330 mins with Marner
106 mins without Marner

Corsi Marner without Matthews: 42%
Corsi Matthews without Marner: 46%

Corsi Marner without Matthews: 44%
Corsi Matthews without Marner: 49%

Shots for Matthews without Marner: 49%
Shots for Marner without Matthews: 44%

xgf% for Matthews without Marner: 52%
Xgf% for Marner without Matthews: 43%

Scoring chances for Matthews without Marner: 45%
Scoring chances for Marner without Matthews: 40%

High danger scoring chances for Matthews without Marner: 53%
High danger scoring chances for Matthews without Marner: 46%

So... Marner despite playing with 11 million #1 center Tavares, without Matthews he's quite comfortably under 50% vs his opponents.

While Matthews, without an 11 million dollar linemate is usually pretty comfortably above 50%.

Looks like Matthews is maybe worth his money but Marner definitely isnt.

you forgot the most important stats...

how many goal Matthews line score and allowed without marner?

and marner without matthews

In carreer in playoff
together 20-11
Matthews w/o marner 18-23
Marner w/o matthews 18-16

Nobody care if you're controling the puck more or whatever in playoff... only result matter

 

[Superstar]

Every argument is based on Marner getting x% of the cap and increase, not a disproportionate amount. He's not looking to get paid more than he's worth. He's just looking to get what he's worth like anybody else, and there are unfortunately some people who refuse to acknowledge his worth. He is better and worth more than Rantanen. We don't know what he's asking, but 13m, or more, is not ridiculous in any way. Marner would get paid a ton on the open market.

Let's wait and see. $13 million or more is ridiculous...even when you compare him to someone like Willy on his team...and no, Marner is not better and worth more than Rantanen...while Marner is slightly ahead in total regular season points, he's nowhere near as impactful and productive in the playoffs...and with the talk of Marner reaching 100 pts for the first time, Rantanen has already surpassed the 100 pts mark twice.

 

[Antropovsky]

you forgot the most important stats...

how many goal Matthews line score and allowed without marner?

and marner without matthews

In carreer in playoff
together 20-11
Matthews w/o marner 18-23
Marner w/o matthews 18-16

Nobody care if you're controling the puck more or whatever nut about real result...

We are looking at how dangerous players are with and without eachother.

Matthews without Marner .... is Matthews without 11 million dollar linemates.

Marner without Matthews ... is Marner with an 11 million dollar center (Tavares).

Matthews is dangerous without Marner.

Marner, with a 11 million center, is not dangerous without Matthews. He's pretty bad actually.

Remember when Carlyle leafs were comfortably in a playoff spot hit advanced stats said they shouldn't be anywhere close to a playoff spot? We kept getting reminders of it game in and out, that advanced stats said they sucked.

Well...they ended up comfortably missing.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not what I said at all.

I said outside of playing with Mac his numbers are just that and I also said he's probably going to pick that up in Dallas with their plethora of scoring forwards. I dont know about 12 million but the big worry was that his numbers were a product of Mac when the first trade happened wasnt it?

If he's not putting up points and especially scoring goals, his value plummets pretty quick. He's already picked it up in Dallas and if he has a decent playoffs, hes gonna look like a good pickup. All of a sudden getting pushed out of playing with the reigning Hart trophy winner (and contender this year) is gonna feel a little jarring for sure.

Below is what you said, I quoted you directly, and you're crazy.

Away from MacKinnon overall, Rantanen is, at best, a 5 million dollar player.

 

[thusk]

We are looking at how dangerous players are with and without eachother.

Matthews without Marner .... is Matthews without 11 million dollar linemates.

Marner without Matthews ... is with an 11 million dollar center.

Matthews is dangerous without Marner.

Marner, with a 11 million center, is not dangerous without Matthews.

Remember when Carlyle leafs were comfortably in a playoff spot hit advanced stats said they shouldn't be anywhere close to a playoff spot? We kept getting reminders of it game in and out, that advanced stats said they sucked.

Well...they ended up comfortably missing.

If advanced stats would be more important than the result, leafs would had won more playoff series than they actually did...

In playoff is do or die... You can look sexy but if you can't convert that's not making you better...

especially when you taking in consideration Marner opposition always been tougher than Matthews when they had been split( Marner played much more vs top 6 matchup)

 

[Antropovsky]

If advanced stats would be more important than the result, leafs would had won more playoff series than they actually did...

In playoff is do or die... You can look sexy but if you can't convert that's not making you better...

especially when you taking in consideration Marner opposition always been tougher than Matthews when they had been split( Marner played much more vs top 6 matchup)

Are we taking your word that opposition has always been tougher? They played 100 minutes apart from 2021-2023. Show me who they played against (opposition) with and without. Marner and Matthews. Show your work.

I showed the stats.... Marner without Matthews (but still with an 11 million center) was abysmal.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nylander scoring goal at a rate of 1,17 goal/ 60 and robertson at a rate of 1,15/ 60 or Mcmann at 1,11 at 5v5 last 2 year...So Nylander scoring ability is overrated...

That's the same f***ing bullshit...

You can say what you want to stats, but stats mean nothing when you're unable to use it correctly

Switching to a different set of stats again?

And Marner is way down at .83 - your point is?

If you want to use last 2 seasons:

Last 2 seasons Nylander is second in both goals and assists, and tied with Matty for second in points, only 2 behind Mitch. Second in ES goals and third in points. First in PP points and second in goals. Leads the team in shorthanded goals and points, OT goals, and GWG.

Stats mean nothing when you're unable to use them correctly.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Marner would get paid a ton on the open market.

Let's hope we find out!

 

[notDatsyuk]

Are we taking your word that opposition has always been tougher? They played 100 minutes apart from 2021-2023. Show me who they played against (opposition) with and without. Marner and Matthews. Show your work.

I showed the stats.... Marner without Matthews (but still with an 11 million center) was abysmal.

He regularly brings up the trope of 'harder competition', even though it's been shown to him that it is less if a factor than quality of linemates.

 

[thusk]

Switching to a different set of stats again?

And Marner is way down at .83 - your point is?

If you want to use last 2 seasons:

Last 2 seasons Nylander is second in both goals and assists, and tied with Matty for second in points, only 2 behind Mitch. Second in ES goals and third in points. First in PP points and second in goals. Leads the team in shorthanded goals and points, OT goals, and GWG.

Stats mean nothing when you're unable to use them correctly.

????

You completly missed the point here, ... I would took Matthews if that would fit...

The point was just comparing marner / domi assist per 60 mean absolutly nothing the same way goal/60 nylander/ robertson/ mcmann mean absolutly nothing...That's doesn't make Domi a better playmaker or robertson/mcmann better goal scorer because they able to get similar stats...

 

[Dekes For Days]

Let's wait and see. $13 million or more is ridiculous...even when you compare him to someone like Willy on his team...and no, Marner is not better and worth more than Rantanen...while Marner is slightly ahead in total regular season points, he's nowhere near as impactful and productive in the playoffs...and with the talk of Marner reaching 100 pts for the first time, Rantanen has already surpassed the 100 pts mark twice.

How many times you hit some arbitrary point total doesn't actually matter. Marner is a better offensive and defensive player in each individual game state and overall. Rantanen's production has been inflated throughout his career with the most empty net points in the league, and being on the team that gets the most PP time in the league, and he's still fallen short. Marner is also a better player than Nylander, who's already gotten a contract worth the equivalent of about 13m under a 95.5m cap. As for the playoffs, there's more to impact than production, and these small samples of production skewed by the very different situations they experience doesn't change what they are.

 

[Hellcat]

Marner is not as good as Rantanen period. Not even close as far as body of work goes and playoff success.

I am glad you are so worried about Marner making more money though. Lol. You know it's more telling than you think.

You didn't answer the question, you replied with an opinion. What criteria did you use to come with that opinion?

Rantanen has 87 points in 80 GP, w/ 61.5% oZs%, Marner 98 points in 78 GP with 49.0 oZs%. So Marner with considerably tougher ice, 25.5% tougher ice to be precise, Marner has almost 13% more points. How is Rantanen better?

Is Rantanen a better defensive player? Is he a better two way player? What metrics are you using to come to that conclusion?

 

[francis246]

... ignoring last playoffs, the previous 3 years Matthews and Marner with and without eachother.

2020-2023
330 mins with Marner
106 mins without Marner

Corsi Marner without Matthews: 42%
Corsi Matthews without Marner: 46%

Corsi Marner without Matthews: 44%
Corsi Matthews without Marner: 49%

Shots for Matthews without Marner: 49%
Shots for Marner without Matthews: 44%

xgf% for Matthews without Marner: 52%
Xgf% for Marner without Matthews: 43%

Scoring chances for Matthews without Marner: 45%
Scoring chances for Marner without Matthews: 40%

High danger scoring chances for Matthews without Marner: 53%
High danger scoring chances for Matthews without Marner: 46%

So... Marner despite playing with 11 million #1 center Tavares, without Matthews he's quite comfortably under 50% vs his opponents.

While Matthews, without an 11 million dollar linemate is usually pretty comfortably above 50%.

Looks like Matthews is maybe worth his money but Marner definitely isnt.

In the playoffs what matters more xgf and xga or the actual raw numbers. The raw numbers mean more. Who cares if you possess the puck more if the raw data shows you give up more goals or you’re not producing actual goals.

For someone who says they’ve coached, you rely too heavily on advanced stats for every argument. I’ve never seen a coach who judges EVERYTHING or makes every decision based on advanced stats. Did you ever use gut feel or account for player chemistry during your coaching tenure? You can’t rely on advanced stats for every decision as they only tell a part of the story. They are great tool to help give you some insight but they aren’t the be all, end all. Matthews may have good advanced stats but it’s not really translating into exceptionally more raw goals in the post season away from Marner, so who cares if his advanced stats numbers are better away if he actually scores less or at the same rate as with Marner?

So many people complain, why don’t coaches separate the two? I think we have our answer. The fancy stats look nice when you separate them. Matthews may even get more chances but we you look at the raw numbers, there is no one who Matthews capitalizes more with than Marner. I think if you asked Matthews in a candid moment which teammate he trusts the most to put it in the spots he wants, he’s gonna say 16. That’s why they are together. I’m sure there are things Matthews would want Marner to change about his game, but ultimately, Marner can deliver the puck where Matthews wants it and the raw numbers speak for themself. (side note: Matthews has been effective away from Marner as well, they’ve played a lot together and Matthews is a good player so he’s going to score regardless. Whether they are together or not both need to produce for us to win)

Additionally, he still scores at a lower rate than he does in the regular season, you don’t win a Stanley cup by having the best xgf or best corsi numbers, you win it by actually scoring goals. So what exactly is your point?

 

[thusk]

Are we taking your word that opposition has always been tougher? They played 100 minutes apart from 2021-2023. Show me who they played against (opposition) with and without. Marner and Matthews. Show your work.

I showed the stats.... Marner without Matthews (but still with an 11 million center) was abysmal.

last year vs marchand or pastrnak line
marner 80M (81%)
Matthews 47 m (65%)

2023
Matthews
vs 1sr 21% of matthews ice time
2 nd 59%

Marner vs 1st 31%
marner vs 2nd 46%

main difference was matthews played vs tampa shutdown line ( killorn-cirelli-hagel) and marner vs stamkos-point-kucherov line more when split

vs florida they played together basically all the time so basically the same

2022
2nd 44%
1st 26%
Matthews without marner he only played 28% vs top 6

marner
1st 29%
2nd 47%
Marner without matthews at 68% vs top 6

Just to give you an sample because i don't have enough to do more

 

[thewave]

You didn't answer the question, you replied with an opinion. What criteria did you use to come with that opinion?

Rantanen has 87 points in 80 GP, w/ 61.5% oZs%, Marner 98 points in 78 GP with 49.0 oZs%. So Marner with considerably tougher ice, 25.5% tougher ice to be precise, Marner has almost 13% more points. How is Rantanen better?

Is Rantanen a better defensive player? Is he a better two way player? What metrics are you using to come to that conclusion?

I didn't reply because it was a silly question. What teams did they play? They played playoff teams that want to win a cup. LA Kings were a last place playoff team and won a cup. Various playoff teams is the answer, who exactly they were doesn't even matter.

Rantanen is an all around better playoff player. The production proves as much. The fact he was a key part of a Cup winner is additional proof.

The Marner lobby, and that's what it is, a lobby will isolate 3 stats that he is perceived better at and harp on it. The counter to this is simple.

He has not done anything to propell his team deep into the playoffs. Including many terrible game performances in games 5 6 7

 

[ToneDog]

He regularly brings up the trope of 'harder competition', even though it's been shown to him that it is less if a factor than quality of linemates.

This team needs goal scorers more than a soft, perimeter winger who wants to break the bank. Three consecutive 40+ goal seasons, including 45 goals this year trumps 75 assists for me. The only fault I have with Willie is that he takes a few games off. He is the more dangerous player when he wants to be. Hard to knock off the puck. Not so much for the smaller, weaker Marner who needs a closer to put up 75 assists.

 

[tmlms13]

April 10, 2023:
Auston Matthews scores 299th career goal, assisted by Mitch Marner's on his 99th point of the season

April 13, 2025
Auston Matthews scores 399th career goal, assisted by Mitch Marner's on his 99th point of the season


I wonder who gets the puck.

 

[ACC1224]

April 10, 2023:
Auston Matthews scores 299th career goal, assisted by Mitch Marner's on his 99th point of the season

April 13, 2025
Auston Matthews scores 399th career goal, assisted by Mitch Marner's on his 99th point of the season


I wonder who gets the puck.

Marmer will unselfishly make sure Matthews gets it.
You only get 400 goals once, Marner paces out to 100 every year.

 

[HockeyVirus]

IMO if you aren't mentally prepared to see Marner sign with another team and then be gaslit by the media and hater fanbases you are doing yourself a disservice.

The acceptable outcomes to me are A) We win the cup and then I don't care what we pay him or B) he decides he wants to be a Leaf and part of the solution and takes a fair market deal.

Overpaying him can't and won't happen with an early exit. Marner has no interest in dealing with the Toronto market after another early exit where he then bends over the leafs. Leafs management are aware of their reputation and won't want to look that way either.

He is very likely gone. And I am fine with that.