Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[Nineteen67]

Some people do not understand that the Leafs will not have any options to change this core once they give Marner a NMC other than what the Rangers are currently doing with their players. They forced Trouba to waive and Zibanejad just refused to waive to Vancouver. Leafs most likely will not do that, so they will be running it back for at least another 3 years, when Matty is up to bat again. A loss to Florida in round #2 won't go over well with most of the fan base.

If they win a round and are competitive in round 2 I think most fans will be happy. If plays well he’ll re-sign, if he’s pushed out, then it gets interesting.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Oh, no we're back to the don't resign him thing again?

You can't let an asset like Marner walk for nothing, that is madness. "Oh but we need cap space for changes" then let JT walk. This isn't rocket science. There likely won't be anyone available as a FA that will make these spots you free up better anyways. Let it gooooo

If anyone thinks that Leafs management "made their choice" in keeping Nylander then all that means is that management needs to be fired out of a cannon. No serious hockey person would keep Nylander over Marner.

 

[Mess]

Leafs would have gladly signed him to $12mx8 if he'd accept it. This is playing out like it did for Willie last year. Question is whether the Leafs cave before the playoffs and pay his ask.

As long as Mikko Rantanen remains unsigned and headed for UFA status there is NO rush on Leafs part as a potential replacement exists on the market.

Rantanen has double the playoff points (101 vs. 50) and 3 X the playoff goals (34 vs 11) as Marner does over the same last 8 playoff years. So it would be a easy upgrade opportunity for Toronto should that opportunity present itself. Rantanen has proven to be able to win a Cup.

Even if Rantanen should re-sign with the Avs. His contract term/AAV would be vital to Marner's next potential one based on comparables as a reference point for negotiations in TO.

Marner's next Leafs deal would be Rantanen (minus) as the high water mark as he sets the bar for RWers in the game. IMO

 

[ToneDog]

Oh, no we're back to the don't resign him thing again?

You can't let an asset like Marner walk for nothing, that is madness. "Oh but we need cap space for changes" then let JT walk. This isn't rocket science. There likely won't be anyone available as a FA that will make these spots you free up better anyways. Let it gooooo

If anyone thinks that Leafs management "made their choice" in keeping Nylander then all that means is that management needs to be fired out of a cannon. No serious hockey person would keep Nylander over Marner.

Anybody following this team knows they are not letting him walk for nothing. The question is, if he and the rest of the core shit the bed again, do you want pay him $13m and run it back 3 or more years? At the right number he would have already been resigned. Hell Leafs would do a slight overpay of the Nylander overpay based on a 92m cap $12.8m but no deal has been done. I wonder why.

 

[IPS]

Marner on the other hand likely over-played his hand in past negotiations, where he wanted TOP $$ and as short term as possible

Not even close.

Marner played his last negotiation pretty masterfully actually. Make the negotiations as toxic as possible on a rookie GM, insist your comparable is a franchise/borderline generational #1C (who historically are paid far more than wingers) and get a blatant overpayment ($1.8M more than your comparable in Rantanen).

Marner and Matthews are writing the book on how to maximize earnings in the NHL.

 

[ToneDog]

Not even close.

Marner played his last negotiation pretty masterfully actually. Make the negotiations as toxic as possible on a rookie GM and get a blatant overpayment ($1.8M more than your comparable in Rantanen).

Marner and Matthews are writing the book on how to maximize earnings in the NHL.

Ferris knows that as long as Marner keeps putting up assists and remains top 10 in points, Leafs will fold like they did with Nylander. And he wasn't negotiating with a rookie GM.

 

[ACC1224]

The Leafs just named AM their new captain and Nylander re-signed long-term for the full 8 year commitment and both were given full NMC contracts by our current GM.

While Nylander's contract today at $11.5 mil is an over-payment in 2024-25 however due to the length and commitment by Willy that contract in 4-5 years with the current Cap increases expected annually will be a value contract to the Leafs down the road.

Marner on the other hand likely over-played his hand in past negotiations, where he wanted TOP $$ and as short term as possible, so he could re-up sooner and prosper personally financially. Marner is likely overpaid by about $2-$2.5 mil annually, and should be on a current 8 x $8.5 mil deal. that would have and additional 2 years remaining after current (if not for our clueless past GM).

Short-term high AAV contracts are good for player but bad for TEAM competitiveness.

The early bird gets the worm as the saying goes. So now Marner (a local Ontario kid) who would love to remain a Leaf no doubt. Missed his gravy train opportunity based on timing of wanting to go last up to the contract table because now CHANGE will have to run through him of the 3 Amigo's.

PS. If Marner would currently accept the Nylander 8 year / $93 mil deal (or thereabouts) he would likely already be re-signed. (regardless of playoff results) as there would be room/value to keep all 3. However I would be willing to bet that both that rate and combined with that full term, is not of interest to Marner. IMO

What a ‘Mess’ of a post

Marner didn’t want short term, he wanted 8 years but Dubas negotiated it down to 6 for some reason.

 

[Hallonbroder]

As fan it’s not that black and white. Yes of course I want the team to win. But I’m also gonna be pissed off if we let this guy walk and we suck after. Cause we let a talented player go for nothing. It’s an impossible position and I don’t think there’s a wrong side to this. People who want the leafs to let Marner walk and try something different aren’t wrong and people who feel like letting him go will make the team worse aren’t wrong because both can be true. This is probably one of the most critical junctures this team has been at in a very long time. We may very well need change, but there is a 50% chance we still suck after making the changes people want and that will be a very tough pill to swallow. There’s also a 50% chance we get better. So idk what the right move is.

I get that reasoning, but shouldn’t the “right move” be to explore other options if the one you’ve tried for years only gave one playoff series win?

….also the thought that you either keep it the same or Marner leaves is too narrow.
IMO, if change is warranted any of the three should be discussed as being moved for change, not just the one.

The thinking of some that if you don’t want Marner moved means you don’t want the team to win is asinine and really should just be ignored.

But….one of the three is not signed to a NMC after this season. That’s why Marners the “option”…

 

[ToneDog]

Not even close.

Marner played his last negotiation pretty masterfully actually. Make the negotiations as toxic as possible on a rookie GM, insist your comparable is a franchise/borderline generational #1C (who historically are paid far more than wingers) and get a blatant overpayment ($1.8M more than your comparable in Rantanen).

Marner and Matthews are writing the book on how to maximize earnings in the NHL and minimize amount of unpaid OT work required in the playoffs.

The book needs a few more chapters if they want it to be a best seller.

 

[666]

What a ‘Mess’ of a post

Marner didn’t want short term, he wanted 8 years but Dubas negotiated it down to 6 for some reason.

As the guy that likes to points out misuse of stats there are some posters that are so absurd with it that I don't bother. These people can be ignored.

 

[Gary Nylund]

As long as Mikko Rantanen remains unsigned and headed for UFA status there is NO rush on Leafs part as a potential replacement exists on the market.

Rantanen has double the playoff points (101 vs. 50) and 3 X the playoff goals (34 vs 11) as Marner does over the same last 8 playoff years. So it would be a easy upgrade opportunity for Toronto should that opportunity present itself. Rantanen has proven to be able to win a Cup.

Even if Rantanen should re-sign with the Avs. His contract term/AAV would be vital to Marner's next potential one based on comparables as a reference point for negotiations in TO.

Marner's next Leafs deal would be Rantanen (minus) as the high water mark as he sets the bar for RWers in the game. IMO

I couldn't agree more. If it's true that the Leafs and the Avs both have internal caps and nobody can get more than Matthews/MacKinnon, that means we could pay Rantanen more than the Avs.

If Rantanen isn't happy with this and is willing to move, he'll probably want to go someplace that has a shot of winning the cup so we'd be on the short list, Marner leaving gives us the cap space to pay him, and if we can pay him more than the Avs because of internal caps, this all extremely interesting and not keeping this in mind would incredibly stupid.

What would you rather have, Rantanen at 13.2 million, or Marner at 13.2, 13, 12.5, 12, whatever? Rantanen is a playoff beast, I'd rather have him at 13.2 than Marner at 11 myself and it's not close.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

I couldn't agree more. If it's true that the Leafs and the Avs both have internal caps and nobody can get more than Matthews/MacKinnon, that means we could pay Rantanen more than the Avs.

If Rantanen isn't happy with this and is willing to move, he'll probably want to go someplace that has a shot of winning the cup so we'd be on the short list, Marner leaving gives us the cap space to pay him, and if we can pay him more than the Avs because of internal caps, this all extremely interesting and not keeping this in mind would incredibly stupid.

What would you rather have, Rantanen at 13.2 million, or Marner at 13.2, 13, 12.5, 12, whatever? Rantanen is a playoff beast, I'd rather have him at 13.2 than Marner at 11 myself and it's not close.

If the Leafs paid Rantanen more than Matthews I wouldn't object.

Matthews probably wouldn't either. Rantanen would easily be the best winger to ever play beside him. I think a culture change is necessary so don't want Marner back for any number.

Rantanen is a much better player and it's not even close.

 

[ToneDog]

If the Leafs paid Rantanen more than Matthews I wouldn't object.

Matthews probably wouldn't either. Rantanen would easily be the best winger to ever play beside him. I think a culture change is necessary so don't want Marner back for any number.

Rantanen is a much better player and it's not even close.

Expect a response that you are mad, or trolling or have no clue about what a great hockey player is.

 

[All Mod Cons]

As long as Mikko Rantanen remains unsigned and headed for UFA status there is NO rush on Leafs part as a potential replacement exists on the market.

Rantanen has double the playoff points (101 vs. 50) and 3 X the playoff goals (34 vs 11) as Marner does over the same last 8 playoff years. So it would be a easy upgrade opportunity for Toronto should that opportunity present itself. Rantanen has proven to be able to win a Cup.

Even if Rantanen should re-sign with the Avs. His contract term/AAV would be vital to Marner's next potential one based on comparables as a reference point for negotiations in TO.

Marner's next Leafs deal would be Rantanen (minus) as the high water mark as he sets the bar for RWers in the game. IMO

Leafs will absolutely re-sign Marner and Tavares. If we won a Cup without those two guys on the team, it wouldn't be worth it.

They'll have to retire before they're not a Leaf anymore.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Expect a response that you are mad, or trolling or have no clue about what a great hockey player is.

I've heard it all before.

 

[nuck]

As long as Mikko Rantanen remains unsigned and headed for UFA status there is NO rush on Leafs part as a potential replacement exists on the market.

Rantanen has double the playoff points (101 vs. 50) and 3 X the playoff goals (34 vs 11) as Marner does over the same last 8 playoff years. So it would be a easy upgrade opportunity for Toronto should that opportunity present itself. Rantanen has proven to be able to win a Cup.

Even if Rantanen should re-sign with the Avs. His contract term/AAV would be vital to Marner's next potential one based on comparables as a reference point for negotiations in TO.

Marner's next Leafs deal would be Rantanen (minus) as the high water mark as he sets the bar for RWers in the game. IMO

Even though traditionally the Leafs have ignored external comps in negotiations, I think it makes absolute sense to wait for Ranta to sign. He will establish a number somewhere lower than Draisaitl (same agent) and MM will be settled for somewhere between Willie and that. Its maybe unfortunate Willie set the floor so high but they did what they felt they needed to do and honestly percentage of the cap seems to be the big driver in what the top players are demanding (although I think we are getting this mostly from media types rather than agents).

I don't think they would dare let Mitch get to UFA in light of how the Nylander negotiations went but they might have the spine to us the Ranta number as a cap. A player can't use other local tax situations and a percentage of the cap both. An interesting thing to watch.

 

[ACC1224]

Wouldn’t Rantanen replacing Nylander make more sense? I’m assuming the goal is to ice the best team.

*** only player that they will pay more than Matthews would be McDavid.

 

[Hellcat]

Wouldn’t Rantanen replacing Nylander make more sense? I’m assuming the goal is to ice the best team.

*** only player that they will pay more than Matthews would be McDavid.

Somewhere deep down in my conspiracy brain, I kind of think that is the plan all along.

 

[666]

Lot's of Rantanen talk around here today. Here are some stats:
5v5 last 3 full seasons, both players playing in all the games.

GP TOI GF GA GF%
Mikko Rantanen Nathan MacKinnon 209 2734 182 117 60.9
Mikko Rantanen w/o Nathan MacKinnon 209 717 34 46 42.5
w/o Mikko Rantanen Nathan MacKinnon 209 735 52 38 57.8
w/o Mikko Rantanen w/o Nathan MacKinnon 209 5802 224 197 53.2

see attachment, the site is currently broken.

Rantanen with Mack is great.
Mack without Rantanen is still great.
The team without either is pretty good.
Rantanen without Mack is really terrible.

The playoff numbers are similar but the sample size is too small.

There could be lots of explanations for it but based on these 3 years worth of numbers it appears that Rantanen REALLY depends on Mack for his success.

 

[Hellcat]

Toronto Maple Leafs Issue Final Ultimatum to Mitch Marner on His Next Contract, per Pierre LeBrun

It's impressive how quiet the Mitch Marner contract talks have been this season, but for the Maple Leafs, it seems they are giving him very little choice.

www.hockeypatrol.com

I think it's foolish to set an artificial hard $ cap based on ego, because in the end, signing a player to a number a year ago and signing a player next season to a contract, allowing what was right 2 years ago dictate what is right today is foolish. When the cap has 2ish years to grow is illogical IMO. If you base it off % that makes more sense.

 

[nuck]

Toronto Maple Leafs Issue Final Ultimatum to Mitch Marner on His Next Contract, per Pierre LeBrun

It's impressive how quiet the Mitch Marner contract talks have been this season, but for the Maple Leafs, it seems they are giving him very little choice.

www.hockeypatrol.com

I think it's foolish to set an artificial hard $ cap based on ego, because in the end, signing a player to a number a year ago and signing a player next season to a contract, allowing what was right 2 years ago dictate what is right today is foolish. When the cap has 2ish years to grow is illogical IMO. If you base it off % that makes more sense.

But isn't it equally foolish to base the salary on one year peak production? Mitch is established as a 30-g 100p guy per 82 games. He isn't one of the five or six best players in the game. % of the cap if you must, but its the % of his actual comps and 30g-70a isn't the same as 50-50. If anything they can now point to how the contracts Willie, Huberdeau, and Gaudreau looked after career year paydays. I am definitely not saying he will crash but there is no automatic assumption he will improve or even match this season if it plays out as his best. One years additional inflation doesn't mean they are required to pay him just because his agent wants that. They shouldn't be giving in to the player's ego either.