Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[notbias]

Ok let me correct that, "you need to apply it to the rights KINDS of forwards" and even then it is a game of chance.

Back to back Finals and a Cup for the Panthers confirms they did well. The stats of their top players were excellent last year. They delivered the money.

The Leafs are a franchise that hasn't even been to the Finals in almost 60 years. That is just an incredible stat. Even if I were trying, say, taking leftovers as Vegas did in their first year (and made the Finals, LOL), I couldn't replicate such a record.

Unlike in the regular season where process is vital, especially if you are a playoff team and this is all just auditioning and rehearsing; in the playoffs ALL that matters is results. When people look at the Cup winners, they don't ask how.

I know they are going to re-sign Marner and I know that this core will not win a Cup. I've said my opinion as to why a long time ago, it was solidified after the Habs loss. My only hope is that they don't offer a NTC.

I'd love to be wrong I assure you. After you've watched sports for such a length of time, reach a certain age, you don't fool yourself (at least not as much) in life anymore. Marner is a great talent, but teams know how to shut him and the rest of the core down, with higher success than one would expect. They simply don't have the inner beast to break through this, even in a UFA contract year.

But the stats of their players were bad before...

It's almost like past failures don't necessarily mean future failures.

Go check Tkachuk's and Barkov's stats before the last two seasons...

A lot of people knew Ovi would never win a cup either.

There are a lot of examples of players not being able to get it done for a long time.

So it is not about the cap structure, you don't like the players that are signed, which is fine.

Every team has discounts and overpayments, we are not unique.

McCabe at $2 million right now is insane value for example, or Woll at sub $1 million and Stolarz at $2.5 million.

If teams know how to shut down the core, why do they only sometimes do it?

 

[Leafsfan74]

But the stats of their players were bad before...

It's almost like past failures don't necessarily mean future failures.

Go check Tkachuk's and Barkov's stats before the last two seasons...

A lot of people knew Ovi would never win a cup either.

There are a lot of examples of players not being able to get it done for a long time.

So it is not about the cap structure, you don't like the players that are signed, which is fine.

Every team has discounts and overpayments, we are not unique.

McCabe at $2 million right now is insane value for example, or Woll at sub $1 million and Stolarz at $2.5 million.

Yes. There is a major factor that you have left out, this has been a 9 year experiment. This no longer theory, it is fact.

9 Years, one playoff round of success.

There is no precedence for this. Not with Yzerman, who lifted a horrible team to the promised last after years of failure after they surrounded him and eventually Federov with Gamers.

Not with Lemieux who was eventually gifted Jagr and they won back to back Cups after he had 7 years in the league

This is 9 years and let me tell you, these forwards are right now in their prime. They won't get it done when it matters I fear, just as I feared each playoff round. You aren't going to be able to build much more of a solid team with their cap as they did last deadline and where did it lead?

As sports fans, we have to stop gaslighting ourselves.

 

[notbias]

Yes. There is a major factor that you have left out, this has been a 9 year experiment. This no longer theory, it is fact.

9 Years, one playoff round of success.

There is no precedence for this. Not with Yzerman, who lifted a horrible team to the promised last after years of failure after they surrounded him and eventually Federov with Gamers.

Not with Lemieux who was eventually gifted Jagr and they won back to back Cups after he had 7 years in the league

This is 9 years and let me tell you, these forwards are right now in their prime. They won't get it done when it matters I fear, just as I feared each playoff round. You aren't going to be able to build much more of a solid team with their cap as they did last deadline and where did it lead?

As sports fans, we have to stop gaslighting ourselves.

How long was the Ovi or Mac experiment?

I don't care if they trade players, but trading for the sake of change is dumb.

Should Edmonton trade McDavid? He's been trying with Drai longer than our team.

You are making up rules that don't exist.

What is the perfect cap allocation? Show me that and show me the team who has it...

Also, the 9 year experiment wasn't 9 years if we are discussing cap hits.

 

[ToneDog]

But the stats of their players were bad before...

It's almost like past failures don't necessarily mean future failures.

Go check Tkachuk's and Barkov's stats before the last two seasons...

A lot of people knew Ovi would never win a cup either.

There are a lot of examples of players not being able to get it done for a long time.

So it is not about the cap structure, you don't like the players that are signed, which is fine.

Every team has discounts and overpayments, we are not unique.

McCabe at $2 million right now is insane value for example, or Woll at sub $1 million and Stolarz at $2.5 million.

If teams know how to shut down the core, why do they only sometimes do it?

Woll, McCabe and Knies will not be so cheap next year and Marner wants $2-3m more. The overpays have bled this team of any depth it had and draft capital because the core cannot get it done. Keep overpaying the core and get used to a bottom 6 that features players like Holmberg, Lorentz, Robertson and Dewar and vets close to the end of their rope.

Spoiler alert: playing the Leafs in a single game in regular season is not the same as playing a 7 game series where you play the same players every other night. This is why the Leafs under Shanny are regular season warriors and sub 500 in the playoffs.

 

[notbias]

Woll, McCabe and Knies will not be so cheap next year and Marner wants $2-3m more. The overpays have bled this team of any depth it had and draft capital because the core cannot get it done. Keep overpaying the core and get used to a bottom 6 that features players like Holmberg, Lorentz, Robertson and Dewar and vets close to the end of their rope.

Why ignore this year and discuss that we have the same distribution as Florida, that is what we are discussing.

Maybe Cowan, Niemela, and Minten are the cheap players who outperform next year, or maybe we pick up a reclamation project for league min who puts up .5 PPG... who knows.

Apparently, they can get depth and D but we can't, why?

Spoiler alert: playing the Leafs in a single game in regular season is not the same as playing a 7 game series where you play the same players every other night. This is why the Leafs under Shanny are regular season warriors and sub 500 in the playoffs.

Spoiler alert: okay.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It’s fascinating that some still want rid of the guy who shows up every night and want to go to war with the other two who show up when they feel like it, which isn’t often enough.

You still don't understand what it is that you're reading.

Woll, McCabe and Knies will not be so cheap next year and Marner wants $2-3m more. The overpays have bled this team of any depth it had and draft capital because the core cannot get it done. Keep overpaying the core and get used to a bottom 6 that features players like Holmberg, Lorentz, Robertson and Dewar and vets close to the end of their rope.

Spoiler alert: playing the Leafs in a single game in regular season is not the same as playing a 7 game series where you play the same players every other night. This is why the Leafs under Shanny are regular season warriors and sub 500 in the playoffs.

I think some prople are still suffering from the delusion that JT's contract expiring 11 million and that will solve our depth issues.

 

[ToneDog]

Yes. There is a major factor that you have left out, this has been a 9 year experiment. This no longer theory, it is fact.

9 Years, one playoff round of success.

There is no precedence for this. Not with Yzerman, who lifted a horrible team to the promised last after years of failure after they surrounded him and eventually Federov with Gamers.

Not with Lemieux who was eventually gifted Jagr and they won back to back Cups after he had 7 years in the league

This is 9 years and let me tell you, these forwards are right now in their prime. They won't get it done when it matters I fear, just as I feared each playoff round. You aren't going to be able to build much more of a solid team with their cap as they did last deadline and where did it lead?

As sports fans, we have to stop gaslighting ourselves.

$11m Tavares is past his prime
$7.5m Rielly's decline is starting
$11.5m Nylander plays when he feels like it and is back to PPG player
$13.25m Captain who scored 69 last year looks MEH
$10.893 pending UFA is playing for more money

I still think the East is up for grabs so if these boys decide to play like men in the playoffs, they could do some damage. So far, they have failed to do so and are 1 and 8 in the playoffs. Pretty sad record for such an elite forward group. Ah yes, its the goalies and depth fault.

 

[notbias]

You still don't understand what it is that you're reading.

I think some prople are still suffering from the delusion that JT's contract expiring 11 million and that will solve our depth issues.

No, some people can't count.

Why does Florida have depth and we don't? We spend the same on depth and D.

 

[Gary Nylund]

$11m Tavares is past his prime
$7.5m Rielly's decline is starting
$11.5m Nylander plays when he feels like it and is back to PPG player
$13.25m Captain who scored 69 last year looks MEH
$10.893 pending UFA is playing for more money

I still think the East is up for grabs so if these boys decide to play like men in the playoffs, they could do some damage. So far, they have failed to do so and are 1 and 8 in the playoffs. Pretty sad record for such an elite forward group. Ah yes, its the goalies and depth fault.

Seems like a pretty good summary. It's funny how Tavares and Marner are playing so well, I hate to be cynical but can't help but wonder if the fact that it's a contract year factors in here. Rielly's decline isn't looking good, Nylander at least seems to always "feel like it" when the playoffs are on so not too worried about him Matthews looked amazing in the playoffs before he got hurt but over his career he has been anything but a consistent playoff performer so ... like you said, it all comes down to if these boys decide to play like men in the playoffs. You never know I suppose but after all these years, as the saying goes - what are the odds?

 

[Gary Nylund]

No, some people can't count.

Why does Florida have depth and we don't? We spend the same on depth and D.

More to the point - why do our star forwards stop scoring in the playoffs? Nobody spends on their star forwards like we do and yet come playoff time, it always looks like wasted money.

How much does Florida spend on their top 4 forwards compared to us? Come on now, show us all how good you are at counting.

 

[notbias]

More to the point - why do our star forwards stop scoring in the playoffs? Nobody spends on their star forwards like we do and yet come playoff time, it always looks like wasted money.

I'm pretty sure every single star on Florida scores less.

Outside of Colorado/Edmonton, our stars don't do badly.

I don't care if anyone is traded, I think people are just delusional about cap distribution/how bad our stars are.

We have not been able to find depth, we always go for the shiniest toy and never find reclamation projects that work.

Look at how Florida built their team, they got some key pieces for cheap.

How much does Florida spend on their top 4 forwards compared to us? Come on now, show us all how good you are at counting.

I use top 4 F + G because G don't add depth/D help.

We both spend around $50 million.

If you can't count, I am not doing it for you.

Go to PuckPedia.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Florida winning the cup and giving Reinhart 8M and us losing round 1 and paying Marner 6M more per year would be peak Shanny. I don't know how you bounce back from that

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'm pretty sure every single star on Florida scores less.

Last season, Florida had 3 players with more than 20 playoff points. This comment coming from you, (someone that brags about being able to count) is pretty funny.

We both spend around $50 million.

If you can't count, I am not doing it for you.

That seems like a rude thing to say. There's no need for that, why don't you try being a bit more civil? This is also quite ironic as you seem to be the one who's having trouble counting (see my answer above).

Go to PuckPedia.

Maybe you should take your own advice. Since you seem to have trouble counting, I'll do it for you. According to PuckPedia, cap hits for the most expensive 4 forwards is over 46 million for the Leafs, which is about 14 million more than the Panthers.

This is the issue people are pointing to. We spend about half the cap on 4 guys who are paid to score goals. When the playoffs start, 3 out of the 4 simply do not score anywhere near as much as they do during the regular season. You can obfuscate all you like by mentioning goaltending or whatever else but you're not fooling me, and I doubt you're fooling anyone else either. Except for the people that want to be fooled of course, but that's a whole other issue.

 

[thewave]

But the stats of their players were bad before...

It's almost like past failures don't necessarily mean future failures.

Go check Tkachuk's and Barkov's stats before the last two seasons...

A lot of people knew Ovi would never win a cup either.

There are a lot of examples of players not being able to get it done for a long time.

So it is not about the cap structure, you don't like the players that are signed, which is fine.

Every team has discounts and overpayments, we are not unique.

McCabe at $2 million right now is insane value for example, or Woll at sub $1 million and Stolarz at $2.5 million.

If teams know how to shut down the core, why do they only sometimes do it?

Those insane values are gon in 2-3 years. Then what? Riverboat gambling team creation?

The management of this team has been ludicrous under Dubas. They are just now trying to make brownies out the steamy piles. Tre got very lucky with Stolarz or else this would all look very different right now.

 

[thusk]

Seems like a pretty good summary. It's funny how Tavares and Marner are playing so well, I hate to be cynical but can't help but wonder if the fact that it's a contract year factors in here. Rielly's decline isn't looking good, Nylander at least seems to always "feel like it" when the playoffs are on so not too worried about him Matthews looked amazing in the playoffs before he got hurt but over his career he has been anything but a consistent playoff performer so ... like you said, it all comes down to if these boys decide to play like men in the playoffs. You never know I suppose but after all these years, as the saying goes - what are the odds?

Everybody attribute jt and marner season to contract year but if it just result of a new system?

For me the season both Marner and tavares had been the most dominant on the ice with leafs( don't necessairly talk about stats) was their last full season under Babcock ( in a different system)