Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[francis246]

I’d be surprised if Rantanen got 14, hopefully he signs a deal first we have no reason to extend Marner until the summer.

Except I think Rantanen is headed to UFA. Contract negotiations have been pretty ugly. He’s got his cup, he wants to be paid and viewed at as being on the same level as Nate MacKinnon and I don’t think Colorado is gonna budge.

 

[Evilhomer]

Cap% IS the easiest and most accurate way to compare contracts.

That said, I have a hard time justifying giving Mitch more than 14%. Which even if the cap is 92.5 mil next year, still should keep his aav under 13.

A 2 mil aav raise puts him at 12.9 which is in the ballpark of 14%

I bet he ends up signing for around $12.5 or $12.6. The sweet spot in between Nylander and Matthews.

 

[Confucius]

Except I think Rantanen is headed to UFA. Contract negotiations have been pretty ugly. He’s got his cup, he wants to be paid and viewed at as being on the same level as Nate MacKinnon and I don’t think Colorado is gonna budge.

Well they both can get a deal after or on July 1st.

 

[francis246]

Well they both can get a deal after or on July 1st.

That’s true, they can do the Stamkos, see what’s out there and come back to us.

 

[DarkKnight]

He shouldn't get a dime over 12. It's a joke that anything more is being talked about.

If the cap goes up 10 recent as Friedman floated then if he's worth slightly more than Nylander, that's 12 plus 1.2 mil(10 percent), 13.2. It's the same cap percentage. We need to forget numbers, it's % of the cap. Most people assume he would get more than Nylander all things being equal, factor in another big cap jump, and 13 doesn't look as egregious. Even if you think he's Nylander money, that's now 12.65 percentage wise.

I'm expecting 12.75 for 8. With the cap expected to grow and JT off the "big four", should leave plenty of room and look pretty good in 3-4 years.

Caveat being the cap does rise to 97-98 next year.

 

[Zero1]

View attachment 937087

When is Shanny’s new contract getting announced? Tavares’?

The Leafs have had too much success with this group to break them up.

 

[Confucius]

If the cap goes up 10 recent as Friedman floated then if he's worth slightly more than Nylander, that's 12 plus 1.2 mil(10 percent), 13.2. It's the same cap percentage. We need to forget numbers, it's % of the cap. Most people assume he would get more than Nylander all things being equal, factor in another big cap jump, and 13 doesn't look as egregious. Even if you think he's Nylander money, that's now 12.65 percentage wise.

I'm expecting 12.75 for 8. With the cap expected to grow and JT off the "big four", should leave plenty of room and look pretty good in 3-4 years.

Caveat being the cap does rise to 97-98 next year.

I don’t see it that way whatever % of the cap Nylander gets next year would be the same % Marner should get, since both deals would run at least 7 more years. They both make the same percentage this year more or less.

 

[DarkKnight]

I don’t see it that way whatever % of the cap Nylander gets next year would be the same % Marner should get, since both deals would run at least 7 more years. They both make the same percentage this year more or less.

Okay so same percentage gets you to 12.65 if Friedman is right. They aren't signing in the same year.

 

[Confucius]

Okay so same percentage gets you to 12.65 if Friedman is right. They aren't signing in the same year.

No, I may buy into there being a difference if one deal was signed 5 years ago. They make the same this year, Williams won’t change for another 7 years, neither should Mitch’s, if both players are the same. Which I believe they are

 

[francis246]

Okay so same percentage gets you to 12.65 if Friedman is right. They aren't signing in the same year.

What’s Auston’s percentage and Nylander’s percentage?

 

[DarkKnight]

No, I may buy into there being a difference if one deal was signed 5 years ago. They make the same this year, Williams won’t change for another 7 years, neither should Mitch’s, if both players are the same. Which I believe they are

Bruh that's not the way the league works, the cap rises and salaries go up. Why do you think Big Sexy only did 4 years, so he can cash in again and make a ridiculous amount more than Nylander stuck on his deal. It will look ridiculous. Marner is signing this year, he's going to more than Nylander, even if the percentage is the same. The cap is expected to rise a lot next few years, agents and GM's will pay accordingly.

 

[DarkKnight]

What’s Auston’s percentage and Nylander’s percentage?

Matthews 15.1 and 13.1 Nylander. So if cap hits 97, Marner gets 12.61 million at same 13.1 as Nylander. If the cap only goes to 92.5, Marner gets 12.12 same percentage as Willie.

 

[francis246]

No, I may buy into there being a difference if one deal was signed 5 years ago. They make the same this year, Williams won’t change for another 7 years, neither should Mitch’s, if both players are the same. Which I believe they are

I get what youre saying but technically if Marner asked for 11.5, he’d be making a lower cap percentage than Nylander. Cap percentage in contracts is relevant to the year you sign and the cap at time of signing. Nylander’s cap hit does not adjust to 12.65 million if the cap goes up for example. So Nylander’s percentage of cap is relevant to an 88 mill cap. That’s why negotiations with cap % is more favourable now because for teams, as the cap goes up, the lower that percentage actually becomes against the increasing cap. If the players were smart they would negotiate that their salaries adjust as the cap goes up. Owners would never agree to that though haha

 

[thewave]

I bet he ends up signing for around $12.5 or $12.6. The sweet spot in between Nylander and Matthews.

It should be no more than 12m tbh. 12.5m is pretty rich for a player like him. We still need to see if he can elevate in the POs

 

[Evilhomer]

Okay so same percentage gets you to 12.65 if Friedman is right. They aren't signing in the same year.

This is the number that feels right to me, or at least very close to it. He has to get under $13 because there has to be dollar separation between him and Matthews no matter what the cap percentage numbers look like. Don't underestimate optics. Matthews has to remain the alpha. But Marner also has to be paid more than Nylander based on past production (regular season AND playoffs). $12.65 falls right into that sweet spot. As someone else pointed out, the media is leaking a number like $14 to frame the final number in a better light.

 

[francis246]

It should be no more than 12m tbh. 12.5m is pretty rich for a player like him. We still need to see if he can elevate in the POs

If the players/league activate the inflator and it goes up to 97 mill, he probably ends up more than 12 even if he agrees to take Nylanders 13.1 cap percentage.

I do agree we just need to wait until playoffs before making a decision.

 

[thewave]

Matthews 15.1 and 13.1 Nylander

13.33 on 92m is about 12.25m

At those prices we better win in the next 3. If it's gonna be ride or die I guess Tre better start mortgaging the future and signing JT to a 5mx6 etc.

ROR Kadri retained. That's where we are at

 

[DarkKnight]

This is the number that feels right to me, or at least very close to it. He has to get under $13 because there has to be dollar separation between him and Matthews no matter what the cap percentage numbers look like. Don't underestimate optics. Matthews has to remain the alpha. But Marner also has to be paid more than Nylander based on past production (regular season AND playoffs). $12.65 falls right into that sweet spot. As someone else pointed out, the media is leaking a number like $14 to frame the final number in a better light.

I get the optics, this is why I say 12.75 is acceptable IF the cap rises to the floated 95-97. Matthews is the guy who's taken the Leafs to the cleaners both deals, he hit free agency at 26 after extracting top dollar, up front too. Now he has positioned himself for another massive contract, withour giving up anything short term. It's incredible to me all this hand wringing on Marner when Big Sexy has rolled this organization the entire time.
.

 

[Confucius]

I get what youre saying but technically if Marner asked for 11.5, he’d be making a lower cap percentage than Nylander. Cap percentage in contracts is relevant to the year you sign and the cap at time of signing. Nylander’s cap hit does not adjust to 12.65 million if the cap goes up for example. So Nylander’s percentage of cap is relevant to an 88 mill cap. That’s why negotiations with cap % is more favourable now because for teams, as the cap goes up, the lower that percentage actually becomes against the increasing cap. If the players were smart they would negotiate that their salaries adjust as the cap goes up. Owners would never agree to that though haha

Yeah I understand it’s a lower percentage but the actual money paid would be the same. It’s not like one of the deals will expire in 2 or 3 years and that player can negotiate again. Anyway I see why some of you don’t see it my way. It’s cool, I wouldn’t pay Mitch more but maybe Treliving does and maybe he says for 13 I can get Rantanen. And maybe he could.

 

[DarkKnight]

13.33 on 92m is about 12.25m

At those prices we better win in the next 3. If it's gonna be ride or die I guess Tre better start mortgaging the future and signing JT to a 5mx6 etc.

ROR Kadri retained. That's where we are at

Now do 95-97 as many thing the PA is poised to allow. With JT off the books, it's not as bad as last years. Ideal? Nope. Reality? You betcha.

 

[thewave]

Now do 95-97 as many thing the PA is poised to allow. With JT off the books, it's not as bad as last years. Ideal? Nope. Reality? You betcha.

Yeah I guess. Hopefully we can get some viable secondary scoring and depth on long aging contracts. Better it all fall apart at once. Tanev OEL Morgan we need to make use of the best years they have left.

 

[francis246]

Yeah I understand it’s a lower percentage but the actual money paid would be the same. It’s not like one of the deals will expire in 2 or 3 years and that player can negotiate again. Anyway I see why some of you don’t see it my way. It’s cool, I wouldn’t pay Mitch more but maybe Treliving does and maybe he says for 13 I can get Rantanen. And maybe he could.

I’m not paying Mitch more than 13.1 on the cap. Cap % is the universal negotiation standard now in the NHL for top players at least. It is what it is. So if that’s what Nylander got I don’t give him 0.001% more.

 

[GoonieFace]

It’s sad that we are overpaying Nylander, now will overpay Marner due to an incompetent organization. The highest valued franchise is run by clowns.

The taxes are a lame excuse. Hellybuck probably left money on the table with Winnipeg.

Whatever Marner signs for, you can’t blame him.

 

[Jojalu]

Except I think Rantanen is headed to UFA. Contract negotiations have been pretty ugly. He’s got his cup, he wants to be paid and viewed at as being on the same level as Nate MacKinnon and I don’t think Colorado is gonna budge.

I am very interested to see how they fare apart from one another.

 

[Confucius]

I get the optics, this is why I say 12.75 is acceptable IF the cap rises to the floated 95-97. Matthews is the guy who's taken the Leafs to the cleaners both deals, he hit free agency at 26 after extracting top dollar, up front too. Now he has positioned himself for another massive contract, withour giving up anything short term. It's incredible to me all this hand wringing on Marner when Big Sexy has rolled this organization the entire time.
.

3 rockets, Hart, Lindsay, Calder, Mathews was worth the money. Taking short term deals is a gamble, maybe the last one bites him.