Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[Antropovsky]

This is specifically for @Dekes For Days:

The big picture here is true, even if you try to latch onto small, minuscule errors out of desperation, errors that don’t change the main points. For example, yes, Guentzel had a mere 0.05 more 5v5 goals per 60 than Matthews in 2017, but Guentzel played 500 minutes compared to Matthews 1000+ minutes. The .05 g/60 doesn't change the point though that Matthews has proven to be the league best 5v5 g/60 player. Do you want to debate that fact @Dekes For Days ?

Quick Facts:

- Matthews led the league in 5v5 goals per 60 in his first two seasons without Marner as a linemate. Players with 600 plus mins.
= Lots of assists for his linemates.

- In his third year, Matthews ranked 6th in 5v5 goals per 60 and 11th in points per 60, playing primarily with Johnsson, Marleau, and Kapanen.
= Matthews can produce with subpar linemates.

- Last year, Domi had 9 primary assists in 206 minutes with Matthews, while Marner had 16 in 720 minutes. If Domi had played 720 minutes with Matthews, he would have approximately doubled Marner’s 16 assists.
= Non-elite wingers like Domi produce at a higher clip per 60 minutes with Matthews than Marner. Proving wingers 5v5 stats, particilarly primary assists benefit substantially when playing with Matthews.

- Matthews led the league in goals per 60 in two of his first three seasons. It’s reasonable to expect even better production in his prime.
= Marner played with Matthews during his prime years.

What does this mean?

It’s clear Marner picks up many of his 5v5 points because he plays with the league's best goals-per-60 player. Matthews was a leader in goals per 60 without Marner as a linemate, and there’s substantial evidence that Matthews boosts his linemates assist rates. This was evident from 2016–2019 when Matthews didn’t play with Marner and again in 2024 when he played with Domi. Naturally your likely to pick up alot of 5v5 assists if you play with the league's best 5v5 goal scorer.

Additionally, Marner’s historical points per 60 are significantly lower with Tavares than with Matthews, which further indicates that Matthews boosts Marner’s production. Marners 5v5 struggles with Matthews injured this season is further emphasize how reliant Marners 5v5 production is on Matthews.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Marner leads the league in primary assists. He has 14. Next highest on our team is 5. These desperate attempts of yours are laughably horrible.

At 5on5 he has 3 primary assists, which puts him out of the top 90. On the Leafs, JT and Domi have more, and OEL, Mo, and Willy have as many. These desperate attempts of yours are laughably horrible.

 

[DarkKnight]

Occasionally even the third assist is the best one, or the goal is the easiest play.

The perception was different because Marner re-signed right before the season, which was also shortly after getting widely destroyed on social media for appearing greedy. Right after that Marner and his agent tried to mitigate the backlash by coming out with the story of Marner always wanting to remain a Leaf despite getting offer sheets in July, a claim which has never been confirmed by another team.


Since it's been clearly established the Marner camp only used teammates as comparables last time, it stands to reason they'll do the same this time. So I'm predicting 4 years @ something approaching 13 with a bonus structure similar to Matthews once again.

Agreed. Perhaps a touch high if only 4 years, but this rising cap changes the percentages.

 

[Antropovsky]

At 5on5 he has 3 primary assists, which puts him out of the top 90. On the Leafs, JT and Domi have more, and OEL, Mo, and Willy have as many. These desperate attempts of yours are laughably horrible.

Desperate is the right word. Intentionally playing ignorant to 5v5 vs man advantage, 3v3 shinny or empty nets.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You latch onto minuscule errors and attack those, even when the main points still hold.

You being completely wrong about everything you said isn't a miniscule error, and none of your poor attempts at points hold.

You Marner supporters and your moving goalposts: you dismiss stats unfavorable to Marner as having "too small a sample size" but ignore sample size when it helps your argument.

Nobody else is ignoring sample size. You're ignoring his overall performance, his overall production, his 5v5 production through 6500 minutes, and his underlying 5v5 play, to focus on specifically his 5v5 production over ~250 minutes this year. You're also attempting to extrapolate a ~200 minute sample with Domi to draw false conclusions, despite the conversion in that tiny sample being wildly unsustainable. At the exact same time, while looking at 2016-2017, you're eliminating any data below 1000 minutes. You're the one being inconsistent.

Matthews led the league in 5v5 goals per 60 in two of his first three seasons without Marner as his linemate.

No, he didn't. He led it once in those first 3 seasons, when he played with Nylander and Hyman and hit a career high shooting percentage.
He led 3 times with Marner, which are easily his 3 best 5v5 G/60 seasons.

It’s clear Marner picks up many of his 5v5 points because he plays with the league's best goals-per-60 player.

It's clear Marner picks up many of his 5v5 points because he is one of the league's best 5v5 players. His linemate quality over the years is no better than most of his peers.
You don't know how to use these stats, your conclusions are wrong, and your conclusions will continue to be wrong because you have convinced yourself that anything bad that happens is Marner's fault, and anything good that happens is because of Matthews. Ironically, all this talk about primary assists and Matthews, and yet Marner's best primary assist season isn't even with Matthews. But you'll find convoluted ways to dismiss that too.

You can choose to be miserable and wrong if you want, but the rest of us are here enjoying one of the best players in the world.

 

[Dekes For Days]

At 5on5 he has 3 primary assists, which puts him out of the top 90.

You're jumping into conversations without reading again. Nobody cares about your cherry picked stat in one game state in a 20 game sample.

5v5, he has the best primary assist rate in the entire league since 2018.

 

[Confucius]

Whatever happened to, “it’s not how but how many”? Whenever the most of something wins that’s all that matters.

 

[ULF_55]

Whatever happened to, “it’s not how but how many”? Whenever the most of something wins that’s all that matters.

Yep. Team with most goals wins.

But when discussing other less relevant "mosts" it's all just fun and games, and entertainment stats.

 

[notDatsyuk]

You're jumping into conversations without reading again. Nobody cares about your cherry picked stat in one game state in a 20 game sample.

You're wrong again, but that's normal.

Kucherov has the highest from the 2018-19 season to now.
Just that last 2+ seasons Marner is 5th.
Last season he was 8th.

But yes, if you go back far enough, and ignore that he has played with the best goal scorer in the league almost exclusively, you can make his numbers look reasonably good.

Sorry to have to use context against you again.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You're wrong again, but that's normal.
Kucherov has the highest from the 2018-19 season to now.

Unsurprisingly, what I posted is correct, and it is you that is wrong again.

 

[arso40]

Unsurprisingly, it is you that is wrong again.
View attachment 933675

Nice but I would expect him to have the most he had jt for the one year and Matthews the rest kadri and bozak aren’t too bad to start off either but good on being right

 

[Dekes For Days]

Nice but I would expect him to have the most he had jt for the one year and Matthews the rest kadri and bozak aren’t too bad to start off either but good on being right

None of the other scoring leaders are required to play with 4th liners for their points to count.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Unsurprisingly, what I posted is correct, and it is you that is wrong again.
View attachment 933675

Mea culpa - hit the wrong column.

So second in the last 3, 4, or 5 years cumulative, 8th last year, and nowhere to be found this year.

It really shows how dependant he is on Matthews.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It really shows how dependant he is on Matthews.

Wrong again.

 

[arso40]

None of the other scoring leaders are required to play with 4th liners for their points to count.

Fair point I would just argue marners had better than most

None of the other scoring leaders are required to play with 4th liners for their points to count.

Still on him to produce though so full marks

 

[Dekes For Days]

Fair point I would just argue marners had better than most

He really hasn't. People seem to forget what other players have, that Matthews is only one linemate, and unlike many top scorers, Marner also takes on a bunch of harder matchup and defensive minutes.

 

[arso40]

He really hasn't. People seem to forget what other players have, that Matthews is only one linemate, and unlike many top scorers, Marner also takes on a bunch of harder matchup and defensive minutes.

In what year did that start for Marner cause that’s been Matthews his whole time here with the exception of jts first year and even that’s debatable

 

[thewave]

At 5v5, he's ranked 152nd. Marner is padding his stats on the man advantage, 3v3 and empty nets.

By the way, this is why I need to repeat myself so often because posters like you play ignorant. I'm always referencing 5v5 stats, so for anyone complaining about me repeating myself, take note.

It’s funny how certain Marner supporters used to point to his 5v5 stats as proof he’s a top player. Now, they conveniently ignore those same stats.

I’ve always pointed out that his strong 5v5 numbers were largely because he played eith arguably the greatest 5v5 goal scorer the NHL has ever seen.

Well... Matthews is hurt, and now Marner's 5v5 stats are pathetic, including his primary assists.

Right they don't enter into good faith discussions. It's all talking points and repeat and repeat often. Some Sal Alinsky's rules for radicals type stuff lol.

The Marner breakfast club is hilarious. You guys are seriously amusing.

 

[leafs in five]

It really shows how dependant he is on Matthews.

yeah if the last two weeks have proven anything

 

[Menzinger]

I for one have always considered him a 100 point pace player.

I think that's fair, I'm even inclined to agree personally.

I also don't mind folks not agreeing since he's also been in the league for about 9 seasons and doesn't have that number on his stats sheet.

Imo no side has the definitive answer

 

[Antropovsky]

You being completely wrong about everything you said isn't a miniscule error, and none of your poor attempts at points hold.

Nobody else is ignoring sample size. You're ignoring his overall performance, his overall production, his 5v5 production through 6500 minutes, and his underlying 5v5 play, to focus on specifically his 5v5 production over ~250 minutes this year. You're also attempting to extrapolate a ~200 minute sample with Domi to draw false conclusions, despite the conversion in that tiny sample being wildly unsustainable. At the exact same time, while looking at 2016-2017, you're eliminating any data below 1000 minutes. You're the one being inconsistent.

No, he didn't. He led it once in those first 3 seasons, when he played with Nylander and Hyman and hit a career high shooting percentage.
He led 3 times with Marner, which are easily his 3 best 5v5 G/60 seasons.

It's clear Marner picks up many of his 5v5 points because he is one of the league's best 5v5 players. His linemate quality over the years is no better than most of his peers.
You don't know how to use these stats, your conclusions are wrong, and your conclusions will continue to be wrong because you have convinced yourself that anything bad that happens is Marner's fault, and anything good that happens is because of Matthews. Ironically, all this talk about primary assists and Matthews, and yet Marner's best primary assist season isn't even with Matthews. But you'll find convoluted ways to dismiss that too.

You can choose to be miserable and wrong if you want, but the rest of us are here enjoying one of the best players in the world.

Bahaha, the hypocrisy is unreal. Explain this—why is Jake Guentzel your #1 and not Tyler Pitlick, who posted 1.62 g/60 compared to Guentzels 1.6 g/60.

It’s hilarious how, in trying to call someone else out, you end up making the exact same mistakes you’re criticizing.

Honestly, your posts are a masterclass in secondhand embarrassment. I’m not even going to bother with all the other errors in your retort, it’s not worth the effort.

 

[Antropovsky]

yeah if the last two weeks have proven anything

Are you referring to his incredible 5v5 stats since Matthews injury?:

Marner since Matthewa injury:
7 games: 0 g 1 a 1 point, 2 shots

Lol and the lone assist was secondary!

He's really tearing it up! Lookout!

 

[Mess]

Are you referring to his incredible 5v5 stats since Matthews injury?:

Marner since Matthewa injury:
7 games: 0 g 1 a 1 point, 2 shots

Lol and the lone assist was secondary!

He's really tearing it up! Lookout!

Love is blind as the saying goes and Marner fans simply can't see a flawed player before their own eyes that requires others to score for him to record points, or his team to be up a man before he impacts the game.

Sadly however a normal game is played at the MAJORITY of the time at ES as even strength.

When Leafs PP dries up come playoff time struggling, then Marner becomes the invisible man on the scoresheet and Leafs go out early year after year.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Explain this—why is Jake Guentzel your #1 and not Tyler Pitlick, who posted 1.62 g/60 compared to Guentzels 1.6 g/60.

Because not only is it a big outlier for him in a small number of games, but more importantly, unlike Matthews and Guentzel, he did it in a sheltered role playing 9 minutes a game, which is not the same thing. It's called understanding the stats and how to use them.

 

[Antropovsky]

Right they don't enter into good faith discussions. It's all talking points and repeat and repeat often. Some Sal Alinsky's rules for radicals type stuff lol.

The Marner breakfast club is hilarious. You guys are seriously amusing.

Tell me about it... @Dekes For Days claimed I don't read stats correctly, only to make the exact same error he accused me of. When called out, he made up a bunch of his own rules (apparnetly HE IS allowed to do that?) to explain why it was okay for him to do the same thing.

According to his invented logic, Pitlick's 300 minutes is too small of a sample size, but I was wrong to filter out Guentzel's 560 minutes when comparing to league leaders with 1,300+ minutes. Apparently, a 600-minute+ discrepancy matters less than a 260-minute one? ALOT of mental gymnastics (and all our time wasted) to explain his way out of a corner he backed himself into because of his Marner bias.


Mind-blowing stuff.