Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Again

[Gary Nylund]

lol what? You're not even making sense right now. Context is always needed when evaluating stats. I have no idea what you mean by speculation lol.

You said you'd love to see more context, you didn't provide any, you used phrases such as "I’ll have to verify that. But I’d love to see", "I would expect" and "I don’t think".

That's a textbook example of what speculation is, if you have no idea what I mean by speculation then I don't know what to suggest. In any case, that's what I was commenting on, it's pretty clearly speculation so I'm afraid you're the one who's not making sense.

If you're going to post his numbers are better with and without Marner that is extremely vague. You need to account for different things like defensive zone starts vs offensive zone starts, what were the match ups they were facing? Was Matthews deployed more without vs Marner (I.E. extra shifts with the fourth line thus allowing him to feast against weaker matchups or was he just getting more shifts in general), was he taking less shifts, so he is more fresh? What was the quality of opponents during those stretches, if they are facing teams that were weaker in competition when he was away from Marner that would diminish the strength of posting those stats, if the Leafs were facing stronger compettion while the two were split, that would add strength to Antroprovski's argument... those are all things that would contribute to a potential uptick. Not just the fact that he is away from Marner. Posting stats without context is something that Antro and Mess usually do a lot and the reason they do that is because it's narrative based arguing. They know without context the stats/data set will usually fit whatever narrative they want told at the time.

You didn't answer my question, I'll ask it again:
Be honest now, wouldn't you expect that the numbers would show that Matthews is much more productive with Marner than without?

Like I said, context is always welcome so feel free to do your research and add context, points/goals P60 aren't "fancy stats", they are at least somewhat meaningful on their own and perhaps that's why you don't want to answer my simple question.

 

[thewave]

There was a guy who did something similar awhile ago but it wasn't just playoff scoring, he looked for the most clutch players. What he did was he ranked every goal scored with a points system. Every goal was worth one point but you got additional points for how close the game was and less if it was a meaningless blowout. Also got more points for scoring late in the third. I can't remember many of the details but back then he had Justin Williams as the most clutch player. I would imagine teams have something like this.

100% would love to see that.

I look at it like this:

A. Marner at 13mil (if lucky) or

B. Bennett 7m (not him necessarily, but similar type + McCabe level (4.5m) + $1.5mil in space.

I’m taking option B. I think creating better depth is more suitable to building a cup level team, especially since Option A hasn’t really worked out so far.

That 1.5m can also give you another 6m player which is a tier up

 

[Gary Nylund]

I look at it like this:

A. Marner at 13mil (if lucky) or

B. Bennett 7m (not him necessarily, but similar type + McCabe level (4.5m) + $1.5mil in space.

I’m taking option B. I think creating better depth is more suitable to building a cup level team, especially since Option A hasn’t really worked out so far.

Logical. +1.

There was a guy who did something similar awhile ago but it wasn't just playoff scoring, he looked for the most clutch players. What he did was he ranked every goal scored with a points system. Every goal was worth one point but you got additional points for how close the game was and less if it was a meaningless blowout. Also got more points for scoring late in the third. I can't remember many of the details but back then he had Justin Williams as the most clutch player. I would imagine teams have something like this.

That's interesting, would love to see something like this. I think that in 99% of cases, players are about as valuable during the playoffs as they are during the regular season. To this point in his career though, Marner is firmly in that 1% and it seems reasonable to worry that his style of play just isn't suited for the playoffs so this will never change. JT and Matthews have also been bad in the playoffs but not quite as bad, and their style of play isn't an issue so at least there's reason to hope things will get better. Marner though, hard to see any reason to expect him to break through.

 

[francis246]

You said you'd love to see more context, you didn't provide any, you used phrases such as "I’ll have to verify that. But I’d love to see", "I would expect" and "I don’t think".

That's a textbook example of what speculation is, if you have no idea what I mean by speculation then I don't know what to suggest. In any case, that's what I was commenting on, it's pretty clearly speculation so I'm afraid you're the one who's not making sense.


You didn't answer my question, I'll ask it again:
Be honest now, wouldn't you expect that the numbers would show that Matthews is much more productive with Marner than without?

Like I said, context is always welcome so feel free to do your research and add context, points/goals P60 aren't "fancy stats", they are at least somewhat meaningful on their own and perhaps that's why you don't want to answer my simple question.

Cut the condescending bullshit btw. If someone posts stats it’s on them to post it with context.

Yes I would expect Matthews numbers to go up. Just from a simple eye test. If Matthews is playing with players not named Marner or Nylander, his match up is usually easier. He’s more than likely getting offensive zone starts and quality of competition usually goes down. Tavares line usually gets more defensive zone starts if Marner is paired with him.

Also Matthews is an extremely streaky goal scorer he can score 10+ games in a row if hot and usually when Matthews is hot, it’s 2 or more goals in a game for him on a nightly basis, so I’m not “surprised” or “shocked” at all that his numbers are better away from Marner. I’m also not shocked because in one of the years where those per /60 stats were calculated Marner was INJURED. So the coaches didn’t have the option to not play Matthews with Marner.

 

[thewave]

Logical. +1.


That's interesting, would love to see something like this. I think that in 99% of cases, players are about as valuable during the playoffs as they are during the regular season. To this point in his career though, Marner is firmly in that 1% and it seems reasonable to worry that his style of play just isn't suited for the playoffs so this will never change. JT and Matthews have also been bad in the playoffs but not quite as bad, and their style of play isn't an issue so at least there's reason to hope things will get better. Marner though, hard to see any reason to expect him to break through.

Mitch is carving out a legacy of being a two trick pony. You get him the puck, he does a trick and it works or doesn't. When he get pts off his tricks he is the best player people are in awe and love the Mitch. Playoffs come, he does some tricks and then the other team doesn't allow him to do any more tricks. Everybody piles on and slams him for trying to do his tricks at bad times or say he is hurt.

Rinse repeat.

 

[leafs in five]

so his two tricks are a trick that works and the same trick but it doesn't work?

 

[francis246]

I look at it like this:

A. Marner at 13mil (if lucky) or

B. Bennett 7m (not him necessarily, but similar type + McCabe level (4.5m) + $1.5mil in space.

I’m taking option B. I think creating better depth is more suitable to building a cup level team, especially since Option A hasn’t really worked out so far.

How about Option C, spend assets and get post ELC replacements that teams don’t want who will actually be worth their value.

I’d love to see the Leafs grab Dylan Cozens who is younger than Bennett, already cost controlled and has a higher upside and then fill out the rest of the roster with whatever remaining cap space is left after letting Marner/JT walk or one of them walk. To me that makes way more sense than option B and honestly that’s the model most other cup teams have followed. Winning through UFA rarely works but teams have been successful by trading for young value contracts with term. Then go bring back Brazeau for the fourth line.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

lol what? You're not even making sense right now. Context is always needed when evaluating stats. I have no idea what you mean by speculation lol.

If you're going to post his numbers are better with and without Marner that is extremely vague. You need to account for different things like defensive zone starts vs offensive zone starts, what were the match ups they were facing? Was Matthews deployed more without vs Marner (I.E. extra shifts with the fourth line thus allowing him to feast against weaker matchups or was he just getting more shifts in general), was he taking less shifts, so he is more fresh? What was the quality of opponents during those stretches, if they are facing teams that were weaker in competition when he was away from Marner that would diminish the strength of posting those stats, if the Leafs were facing stronger compettion while the two were split, that would add strength to Antroprovski's argument... those are all things that would contribute to a potential uptick. Not just the fact that he is away from Marner. Posting stats without context is something that Antro and Mess usually do a lot and the reason they do that is because it's narrative based arguing. They know without context the stats/data set will usually fit whatever narrative they want told at the time.

Sorry to intervene I don't normally get involved in other people's squabbles.

But all that stuff should wash out as even. Matthews will be used in the same situations regardless who his linemates are. Quality of linemates is far more important than quality of competition so most of that context you are asking for is pretty redundant anyway.

Furthermore I feel like you're really reaching here.

These sort of micro-stats just aren't available to the average fan and you know it. It's also up to you to prove him wrong so the onus is on you to produce the data not him. Even if you were able to provide that information chances are they would give conflicting results that support both sides anyway.

Torture the data enough and it will confess to anything.

Here are few more articles you might find interesting:

No correlation between QoC and Corsi

Importance of QoC vs QoT: There is very little variation in quality of opposition, almost to the point we can almost ignore it. The variation in quality of teammate is significant and cannot be ignored

Importance of QoC: Quality of competition is very similar to shot quality: it plays a huge role in individual shifts/shots, but over the course of a season the differences across teams and players are small enough that it can usually be neglected.

Zone starts also don't matter much: At season scales, for almost every regular player, zone starts don’t matter.

Faceoffs don't matter much either: Over the course of the season goals and faceoff wins tend to balance out,

Since the data Antropovky presented was TOI with Marner vs TOI without Marner, and that split was almost equal, most of the context you are asking for will a) be a wash and b) isn't important anyway. The major thing of importance is linemates. In which case the question is what is Matthews performance with Marner and without?

Antropovsky has answered that already.

 

[GoonieFace]

How about Option C, spend assets and get post ELC replacements that teams don’t want who will actually be worth their value.

I’d love to see the Leafs grab Dylan Cozens who is younger than Bennett, already cost controlled and has a higher upside and then fill out the rest of the roster with whatever remaining cap space is left after letting Marner/JT walk or one of them walk. To me that makes way more sense than option B and honestly that’s the model most other cup teams have followed. Winning through UFA rarely works but teams have been successful by trading for young value contracts with term. Then go bring back Brazeau for the fourth line.

Fair enough, I wasn’t actually naming any particular players, but I just like the idea of getting better depth.

Problem is, does Tre know how to properly evaluate players.

I just look at a guy like Jesper Bratt from NJ, he makes $7.8 mil I believe. He has put up nearly a point/game the past 3 seasons. Imagine us extending Marner for $13.5 million for an extra 18-20 points. That just looks bad.

Im sure i will get flamed for this comparison

 

[francis246]

Sorry to intervene I don't normally get involved in other people's squabbles.

But all that stuff should wash out as even. Matthews will be used in the same situations regardless who his linemates are. Quality of linemates is far more important than quality of competition so most of that context you are asking for is pretty redundant anyway.

Furthermore I feel like you're really reaching here.

These sort of micro-stats just aren't available to the average fan and you know it. It's also up to you to prove him wrong so the onus is on you to produce the data not him. Even if you were able to provide that information chances are they would give conflicting results that support both sides anyway.

Torture the data enough and it will confess to anything.

Here are few more articles you might find interesting:

No correlation between QoC and Corsi

Importance of QoC vs QoT: There is very little variation in quality of opposition, almost to the point we can almost ignore it. The variation in quality of teammate is significant and cannot be ignored

Importance of QoC: Quality of competition is very similar to shot quality: it plays a huge role in individual shifts/shots, but over the course of a season the differences across teams and players are small enough that it can usually be neglected.

Zone starts also don't matter much: At season scales, for almost every regular player, zone starts don’t matter.

Faceoffs don't matter much either: Over the course of the season goals and faceoff wins tend to balance out,

Since the data Antropovky presented was TOI with Marner vs TOI without Marner, and that split was almost equal, most of the context you are asking for will a) be a wash and b) isn't important anyway. The major thing of importance is linemates. In which case the question is what is Matthews performance with Marner and without?

Antropovsky has answered that already.

I clicked on a few of your links and they weren’t working.

Disagree I’m nitpicking. Thank you though.

 

[francis246]

Fair enough, I wasn’t actually naming any particular players, but I just like the idea of getting better depth.

Problem is, does Tre know how to properly evaluate players.

I just look at a guy like Jesper Bratt from NJ, he makes $7.8 mil I believe. He has put up nearly a point/game the past 3 seasons. Imagine us extending Marner for $13.5 million for an extra 18-20 points. That just looks bad.

Im sure i will get flamed for this comparison

I’m not sure why you feel you’d get flamed for that. I think it’s a valid comparison.

I don’t think people are wrong for feeling you can get better value for Marner’s money. There’s a strong argument for it. I think the big counter argument is do we trust Leafs management to make the right decisions and spend the money accordingly.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

I clicked on a few of your links and they weren’t working.

Disagree I’m nitpicking. Thank you though.

The first one and last one didn't work... I got lots more if you want.

I didn't say nitpicking anywhere in my comment. You had a valid question about context. You weren't the only one to ask those questions and they've already been answered.

For the most part that stuff just isn't important.

 

[francis246]

The first one and last one didn't work... I got lots more if you want.

I didn't say nitpicking anywhere in my comment. You had a valid question about context. You weren't the only one to ask those questions and they've already been answered.

For the most part that stuff just isn't important.

Again I disagree that they aren’t important. Context absolutely matters. You also tried to shift burden of proof to me, when that should be on the person who makes a claim. If you’re arguing that Matthews is better without Marner that’s on you to provide stats with context and not just cherry pick.

You’re also ignoring that just because the TOI was 50/50 it does not mean that the deployment was the same automatically. Both you and I know that. If Matthews did infact have easier match ups it would in fact skew the data. Not “even it out”.

I do agree QoC over a full season probably doesn’t matter and zone starts probably only matter situationally. Ultimately context at the end of the day matters.

If you’re claiming Matthews is better without Marner, then prove that he was used the same way in both situations. If you can’t, then the claim is definitely narrative driven, end of story. Exactly what you’re sort of accusing me of doing.

 

[francis246]

The first one and last one didn't work... I got lots more if you want.

I didn't say nitpicking anywhere in my comment. You had a valid question about context. You weren't the only one to ask those questions and they've already been answered.

For the most part that stuff just isn't important.

If that stuff isn’t important, then prove it. Show me that Matthews zone starts, matchups, and deployment were the same with and without Marner. Otherwise you’re just assuming it washes out, which isn’t analysis. It’s just guessing.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

If that stuff isn’t important, then prove it. Show me that Matthews zone starts, matchups, and deployment were the same with and without Marner. Otherwise you’re just assuming it washes out, which isn’t analysis. It’s just guessing.

Now you're just being obstinate.

Sorry to intervene. You can go back to your squabble with Antropovsky. I just thought I would offer you some insight.

The earth is also round too btw.

 

[francis246]

Now you're just being obstinate.

Sorry to intervene. You can go back to your squabble with Antropovsky. I just thought I would offer you some insight.

The earth is also round too btw.

Thank you. & You don’t have to resort to that. Just argue in good faith. I’m not being unreasonable just calling out what I see, your argument isn’t indisputable.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I remember when the nerds didn’t have any data on shot quality so therefore it didn’t matter and would wash out over time too.. lol

The idea that the competition doesn’t matter is hilarious.

 

[34]

So Marner to Pittsburgh is a lock.

What about Boston?

 

[keonsbitterness]

I guess trading Marner for Patrick Mahomes is now off the table.

 

[Antropovsky]

I remember when the nerds didn’t have any data on shot quality so therefore it didn’t matter and would wash out over time too.. lol

The idea that the competition doesn’t matter is hilarious.

The Nerds? You mean Harvard grad and current GM of Carolina?

Very convincing rebuttals. The nerd comment really drove your point home.

 

[ToneDog]

I guess trading Marner for Patrick Mahomes is now off the table.

LOL. I'll bet Pat wins another SB before Mitch wins anything.

 

[ToneDog]

What about Boston?

How many playoffs do you think he will last before Neely gets rid of him? Put me down for 1.

Mitch should go to UTAH, dazzle the fans, collect all the money he can and retire before the novelty wears out and the fans demand playoff success.

 

[darrylsittler27]

How many playoffs do you think he will last before Neely gets rid of him? Put me down for 1.

Mitch should go to UTAH, dazzle the fans, collect all the money he can and retire before the novelty wears out and the fans demand playoff success.

If we lose first round cause we don't have the recipe to win 2 rounds the you know what hits the fan. Because we overpaid 2 guys already Marner walks for the mega contract elsewhere. Current management may not even have permission to sign him or Tavares. If they sign Rantanen Mathews will score less but we win more playoffs.

 

[francis246]

The Nerds? You mean Harvard grad and current GM of Carolina?

Very convincing rebuttals. The nerd comment really drove your point home.

he's very clearly being tongue in cheek.

 

[Gabriel426]

How about Option C, spend assets and get post ELC replacements that teams don’t want who will actually be worth their value.

I’d love to see the Leafs grab Dylan Cozens who is younger than Bennett, already cost controlled and has a higher upside and then fill out the rest of the roster with whatever remaining cap space is left after letting Marner/JT walk or one of them walk. To me that makes way more sense than option B and honestly that’s the model most other cup teams have followed. Winning through UFA rarely works but teams have been successful by trading for young value contracts with term. Then go bring back Brazeau for the fourth line.

That’s pretty much option B, he did said Bennett at 7mil(not necessarily him but that type).