Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Again

[Sypher04]

Everyone wants the so called “tough decisions” to be made on players, but sometimes they backfire big time in hindsight. There was a strong argument at the time it went down that letting Hyman go versus giving him the Edmonton deal was a tough but good decision.

 

[Racer88]

I was hoping that wasn’t the case but it’s probably true. Even if they flame out again in the playoffs, the safe move is to re-sign him and hope a rising salary cap allows them to build a deep enough team to compete for a cup. I don’t personally believe that’s the case because their top players are in their prime and still can’t score when it counts and I don’t see that changing. Opponents know how to shut them down and keep them on the perimeter. Eight years should be enough time to force them to change direction but they don’t have the courage to do it.

Yup. They are terrified to make a change and ya it might hurt if he walks for nothing but sometimes you have to take a few steps back to ultimately get better.
Running the same nonsense back for a decade with no evidence of any improvement is just ridiculous

 

[keonsbitterness]

Sorry, what’s the source of that?

Someone posted a tweet here about that. Could be a big nothing.

lol Marner holds all the cards.. with the season he’s having he’s going to get top dollar from the Leafs or from someone else. There is no doubt about that.

The takes here are so disconnected from reality it is amazing. It is not a difficult decision to keep your best all around and most consistent player.

People demanding change can just cool their jets a bit until JT’s ridiculous salary gets chopped down or outright removed.

If Marner walks the Leafs will be immediately a worse team no matter which two or three cheaper players they supposedly replace him with.. and before something starts blabbing about Rantenan, 99% chance Carolina signs him or they wouldn’t have done that deal.

It's not certain how the Leafs would react to another playoff failure. Having said that, I expect an extension to be announced before the end of the regular season.

No forward plays along the blueline better than Marner. With Marner and two dmen playing high, that leaves two forwards to battle close to the net looking to redirect a Marner muffin. And some wonder why this team is goal scoring challenged this year. Hey Mitch, let the dmen handle the blueline and maybe try going to the dirty areas once in awhile. You know, like most forwards do.

Other Leaf forwards do that, and so do other teams. Gives the d-man a closer option, and it pulls defenders away from the net.

 

[Divine]

Going to be interesting to see what happens with the Rantanen/Necas trade. There's the chance that both of those players make it to UFA. Also, Kaprizov is a UFA next offseason.

If Rantanen wanted 11.5M+ does Carolina pay him? They lost Guentzel because they didn't want to give him 9M.

If Necas has a great year in Colorado this year and next, is Colorado willing to pay him more than they would Rantanen. Does Necas accept?

At the very least, Ratanen's contract will get answered at the same time as Marner's. Let him set the precedent and see if Marner gains or loses leverage from his ask. It seems he's almost guaranteed to lose leverage as the Leafs were always the team that paid the most.

 

[Dekes For Days]

And instead look where we are….

Where we are is 7th in the league, despite a lot of poor decisions since. In large part because we didn't screw up that one decision. At least not yet.

We have had 2 GM’s worth of this bad decisions. Both Tre and Dubas have had no success surrounding these guys with a winning group. Should we be trying a third

What we actually had is a long line of bad GMs and bad decisions. And then we found a GM that did a pretty good job and effectively navigated through the consequences of all those bad GMs and one of the most difficult situations in league history and just like random crazy stuff like our highest draft pick dying (RIP), to build some of the best teams we've seen in over a half century.

But we lost a few playoff series to cup finalists, and the correlation=causation! crowd got loud and didn't care about the why, and that gave Shanahan the cover to dodge a possible threat to his power, and make a kneejerk decision. So back to a bad GM we went, and we've been paying for it ever since.

People keep talking about not being able to afford depth, but the last guy was actually pretty darn good at finding it at efficient prices. If we look through the entire Matthews era and our forwards, and then remove the core 4, deadline additions, and players with less than 20 GP, we end up with 20 forwards that produced 0.4 P/GP or more.

Of those 20:
-13 were brought in by Dubas. They all cost between 700k and 3.5m, and many brought additional defensive and/or PK value.
-7 were brought in by one of Treliving (2), Lou (1), Burke (3), or Nonis (1). They all cost between 3m and 6.25m, and only Bozak brought additional defensive/PK value.

And even beyond that... Robertson and Holmberg have provided some depth production for cheap. Minten and Grebenkin have also stepped into some games and shown some promise. Kampf was brought in and gave some decent value when he was 1.5m. I'd rather pay ZAR 850k for good defense and get 10 goals, than pay assets and 1.2m to Dewar and get none. Even someone like Ennis got us 12 goals in 51 games for 650k once upon a time.

Honestly, at this point we probably should be trying a different GM, but if Treliving is really just the yes man representation of the people above him, I don't know how much it matters, because that means the higher ups are off the tracks. If we were going to fire Dubas, we needed to go more in the Tulsky direction, but we opted for old boys club dinosaur direction and chasing the things that worked the least for us. That's the most concerning part. But all I can do as a fan is cheer on my team regardless, and hope we can catch a run and overcome it.

 

[Racer88]

Where we are is 7th in the league, despite a lot of poor decisions since. In large part because we didn't screw up that one decision. At least not yet.

What we actually had is a long line of bad GMs and bad decisions. And then we found a GM that did a pretty good job and effectively navigated through the consequences of all those bad GMs and one of the most difficult situations in league history and just like random crazy stuff like our highest draft pick dying (RIP), to build some of the best teams we've seen in over a half century.

But we lost a few playoff series to cup finalists, and the correlation=causation! crowd got loud and didn't care about the why, and that gave Shanahan the cover to dodge a possible threat to his power, and make a kneejerk decision. So back to a bad GM we went, and we've been paying for it ever since.

People keep talking about not being able to afford depth, but the last guy was actually pretty darn good at finding it at efficient prices. If we look through the entire Matthews era and our forwards, and then remove the core 4, deadline additions, and players with less than 20 GP, we end up with 20 forwards that produced 0.4 P/GP or more.

Of those 20:
-13 were brought in by Dubas. They all cost between 700k and 3.5m, and many brought additional defensive and/or PK value.
-7 were brought in by one of Treliving (2), Lou (1), Burke (3), or Nonis (1). They all cost between 3m and 6.25m, and only Bozak brought additional defensive/PK value.

And even beyond that... Robertson and Holmberg have provided some depth production for cheap. Minten and Grebenkin have also stepped into some games and shown some promise. Kampf was brought in and gave some decent value when he was 1.5m. I'd rather pay ZAR 850k for good defense and get 10 goals, then pay assets and 1.2m to Dewar and get none. Even someone like Ennis got us 12 goals in 51 games for 650k once upon a time.

Honestly, at this point we probably should be trying a different GM, but if Treliving is really just the yes man representation of the people above him, I don't know how much it matters, because that means the higher ups are off the tracks. If we were going to fire Dubas, we needed to go more in the Tulsky direction, but we opted for old boys club dinosaur direction and chasing the things that worked the least for us. That's the most concerning part. But all I can do as a fan is cheer on my team regardless, and hope we can catch a run and overcome it.

While I agree that maybe Tre was the wrong direction. I disagree about Dubas he built no playoff success. His biggest mistake was signing Tavares when he was the last thing we needed. Went to the scrap heap every year for goalies and once it became evident that with the cap structure his idea of a build was not working he refused to fix it. He had 1 single round win in his 5 years with arguably some of the highest skilled players the leaf had in decades
They were not a serious team then and are not one now.
We are locked into the mess of a team structure until they age out.
Dubas will go down as one of the biggest flops of what shoukd of been a great rebuild.
Final point Shanny was going to resign Dubas until his crazy presser

 

[Dekes For Days]

While I agree that maybe Tre was the wrong direction. I disagree about Dubas he built no playoff success. His biggest mistake was signing Tavares when he was the last thing we needed. Went to the scrap heap every year for goalies and once it became evident that with the cap structure his idea of a build was not working he refused to fix it. He had 1 single round win in his 5 years with arguably some of the highest skilled players the leaf had in decades They were not a serious team then and are not one now. We are locked into the mess of a team structure until they age out. Dubas will go down as one of the biggest flops of what shoukd of been a great rebuild. Final point Shanny was going to resign Dubas until his crazy presser

Most of this is wrong, but there's really no point in going over it for a 50th time. I was mainly trying to show you that you don't need a ton of cap to get effective depth. With the cap rising, we'll also have more cap for depth than we ever did anyway, even if we keep the whole core.

And maybe one day, people will learn that correlation does not equal causation, and that not advancing far into the playoffs does not automatically mean your team was bad, or that your GM did a bad job.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

Pretty simple, you can't pay him more than Matthews and you could argue he's more valuable than Nylander due to 2 way play.

Somewhere between $11.5-13.25...not saying it's the right call, it's just the price the Leafs have set on their own players.

 

[Racer88]

Most of this is wrong, but there's really no point in going over it for a 50th time. I was mainly trying to show you that you don't need a ton of cap to get effective depth.

And maybe one day, people will learn that correlation does not equal causation, and that not advancing far into the playoffs does not automatically mean your team was bad, or that your GM did a bad job.

Good teams advance, good teams don’t lose first round 7 of the last 8 years.
It’s a simple as that. On a 1-2 year sample maybe not but when it’s 1 bloody round win in 8 years that’s crap and no amount of excuses changes that.
Dubas risked everything on this 4 and we as fans are paying the price.
Respectfully you are wrong

 

[Eternal Leaf]

But we lost a few playoff series to cup finalists, and the correlation=causation! crowd got loud and didn't care about the why, and that gave Shanahan the cover to dodge a possible threat to his power, and make a kneejerk decision. So back to a bad GM we went, and we've been paying for it ever since.

Never knew the Montreal Canadiens and Blue Jackets were cup finalists.

If you lose this many times to cup finalists, maybe you're not at their level and never were. Anyone involved in keeping this core around for this long is at fault including Dubas.

 

[ToneDog]

2 ENG for the month of January. Pay him.

Playing like the old Willie who used to curl back whenever encountering traffic.

I could not believe he went to the blueline immediately after a draw in the Minny end. I get it, I've seen Panarin and Kaprizov play high but Marner is taking it to another level. If he wants to be a defenceman, my advice is to talk to the coach.

 

[Aashir]

he was pretty horendous during that empty net situation

had like 3 giveaways in a 1 minute span

 

[The Shadow]

He’s going to leave town after the leafs get knocked out of the playoffs and he gets the blame. It will be chaos for a while and UFAs will avoid signing here to avoid the circus

Never knew the Montreal Canadiens and Blue Jackets were cup finalists.

If you lose this many times to cup finalists, maybe you're not at their level and never were. Anyone involved in keeping this core around for this long is at fault including Dubas.

Montreal was in the cup final

 

[Eternal Leaf]

He’s going to leave town after the leafs get knocked out of the playoffs and he gets the blame. It will be chaos for a while and UFAs will avoid signing here to avoid the circus


Montreal was in the cup final

Yes, you're 100% right I forgot they made the final.

Although there's no way they should be positioned as contenders that year.

 

[DitchMarner]

I feel like TOR doesn't get good enough value from Matthews and Marner when they play them together.

Marner was playing very well on the top line when Matthews was injured. I don't know why, but it rarely feels like they're worth well over $20 mil combined when they play on the same line. I don't know why TOR can't have them on separate lines and have three solid to good lines instead of having to have a guy like Holmberg as the second line C with Tavares out with an injury.

 

[thewave]

I feel like TOR doesn't get good enough value from Matthews and Marner when they play them together.

Marner was playing very well on the top line when Matthews was injured. I don't know why, but it rarely feels like they're worth well over $20 mil combined when they play on the same line. I don't know why TOR can't have them on separate lines and have three solid to good lines instead of having to have a guy like Holmberg as the second line C with Tavares out with an injury.

A lot of us are asking the same thing.

 

[Antropovsky]

I feel like TOR doesn't get good enough value from Matthews and Marner when they play them together.

Marner was playing very well on the top line when Matthews was injured. I don't know why, but it rarely feels like they're worth well over $20 mil combined when they play on the same line. I don't know why TOR can't have them on separate lines and have three solid to good lines instead of having to have a guy like Holmberg as the second line C with Tavares out with an injury.

Not true.

5v5 this year
Marner with Matthews 2.82 p/60
Marner with Tavares 2.84/60

Very close...and very bad considering what these players make and play on the same line.

 

[Hallonbroder]

Pretty simple, you can't pay him more than Matthews and you could argue he's more valuable than Nylander due to 2 way play.

Somewhere between $11.5-13.25...not saying it's the right call, it's just the price the Leafs have set on their own players.

Oh my…

 

[DitchMarner]

Not true.

5v5 this year
Marner with Matthews 2.82 p/60
Marner with Tavares 2.84/60

Very close...and very bad considering what these players make and play on the same line.

Doesn't that basically prove my point? lol.

I said TOR doesn't get good enough value from playing Marner and Matthews together. It seems Marner is as good away from Matthews as he is with him. Why not separate them? I don't think Auston needs to be carried, either.

 

[ToneDog]

Doesn't that basically prove my point? lol.

I said TOR doesn't get good enough value from playing Marner and Matthews together. It seems Marner is as good away from Matthews as he is with him. Why not separate them? I don't think Auston needs to be carried, either.

Both have shown they can be better apart but for some reason they are not split up. With JT and Knies out, what better time to give each a shot with their own line? Yet here we are, scoring 1 goal in each of the last 3 games.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'm starting to think that I should start cheering against the Leafs. I've only done this once in the 50+ years I've been a fan, that was when many of us were doing so hoping that it would lead to Babcock getting fired. It worked.

The motivation here would be similar - maybe missing the playoffs would force management to face the facts, the facts being that the status quo simply does not work, and since Marner is the only core piece not locked up long term (and I'm hoping he won't be extended before the playoffs), the obvious first move in a shakeup would be to cut him loose and let him go hunt for top dollar elsewhere.

I'm not there yet, but the fact that this thought has even crossed my mind is a sign of how bad things are in Leafland. One more thing, LOL at anyone who still thinks that adding a #3C at the TDL could put us over the top.

P.S. I fully expect Marner to be resigned soon for some cap hit that will make me puke.

 

[ToneDog]

I'm starting to think that I should start cheering against the Leafs. I've only done this once in the 50+ years I've been a fan, that was when many of us were doing so hoping that it would lead to Babcock getting fired. It worked.

The motivation here would be similar - maybe missing the playoffs would force management to face the facts, the facts being that the status quo simply does not work, and since Marner is the only core piece not locked up long term (and I'm hoping he won't be extended before the playoffs), the obvious first move in a shakeup would be to cut him loose and let him go hunt for top dollar elsewhere.

I'm not there yet, but the fact that this thought has even crossed my mind is a sign of how bad things are in Leafland. One more thing, LOL at anyone who still thinks that adding a #3C at the TDL could put us over the top.

P.S. I fully expect Marner to be resigned soon for some cap hit that will make me puke.

Only heard part of Kyper on the Fan Morning show and he says the Leafs are all in on Marmer. They are going to go down with the ship with the three 8 playoff series losers. Nothing is going to change, no matter what lip service the clowns running the show say every May when they have to face the music after being punted early from the playoffs. We are not here to sell jerseys bro. Really.

 

[ToneDog]

 

[Mess]

Honestly, it won’t matter what happens in the playoffs. They will re-sign him. Of course, unless he chooses to leave

That might very well be true in and of itself ...

I wouldn't be surprised if the Nylander contract at 8 X $11.5 mil has already been offered by MLSE, and also turned down by Marner at present.

However, the $$$ price and the term is what is in play here and that will depend on the results of BOTH the regular season and playoffs.

A good regular season might get him $11.5 mil today, but with a strong playoff that number might push his asking amount > $13 mil per. His play and the teams performance in this year's playoffs is what MM is gambling on at present.

 

[ToneDog]

That might very well be true in and of itself ...

I wouldn't be surprised if the Nylander contract at 8 X $11.5 mil has already been offered by MLSE, and also turned down by Marner at present.

However, the $$$ price and the term is what is in play here and that will depend on the results of BOTH the regular season and playoffs.

A good regular season might get him $11.5 mil today, but with a strong playoff that number might push his asking amount > $13 mil per. His play and the teams performance in this year's playoffs is what MM is gambling on at present.

He's probably already turned down slight higher than the Nylander deal given a $92.5m cap ($12.5+m). Ferris might be gambling that the cap rises to $97m and they cash in around $13.5m. A difference of $1m and Mitch wonders why some fans consider him a me first, greedy prick and would rather let him walk for nothing than bend them over again.

50 points in 57 playoff games with a 1 and 8 series record and the guy with 2 ENG for the month of January wants to be the highest paid Leaf, not highest paid winger. Most goals in a playoff series - two.