Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Again

[Gabriel426]

Heres some interesting stats:

Non empty net situation goals/points this season:
Rantanen: 18 goals, 47 points
MacKinnon: 15 goals, 54 points
Marner: 12 goals, 58 points

Considering his numbers are not great away from Mac and hes less than stellar defensively too, theres a lot of red flags with Rantanen for me to commit 14 million, thats for sure. Marner playing a ton without Matthews and not having a Makar either is having the more impressive season IMO.

To me, like I said, 100 pts is 100 pts, doesn’t matter how you get them. Like 16 wins in the playoffs is 16 wins, doesn’t matter if all the wins are 1-0 or 6-5.

Anyone can dissect any players/teams stats whichever they desire, but at the end of the day, if someone score 80goals and lead the league in goals, this player will get the Rocket even if 40 of those goals were empty net and the other 40 were scored against 4th liner.

We don’t know what Rantanen was asking but let’s say he asked for 13mil, justify or not, is Necas at 6.5mil really half of Rantanen as a player?
Same question can be ask toward MM, let’s say he wants 13mil, is he twice the player of Necas?
Only McD can make that claim.

 

[GoonieFace]

I agree that if Carolina resigns MR it will be a good trade. But I don't think that will happen. Why would he not do exactly what Guentzel did and test free agency?

He very well might, but even if he doesn’t resign, it’s not a bad deal at all.

 

[ToneDog]

Sakic's options:

1. Pay Ranta Draisaitl or close to Draisaitl deal
2. Use Ranta as own rental and let him walk for nothing
3. Trade Ranta

Why do some people not get it that option #3 is better than #2 and likely the best option going forward? What are the odds they beat Vegas, Dallas and McDavid and get to the SCF? I'm guessing not worth the risk to go with option #2.

 

[francis246]

Sakic's options:

1. Pay Ranta Draisaitl or close to Draisaitl deal
2. Use Ranta as own rental and let him walk for nothing
3. Trade Ranta

Why do some people not get it that option #3 is better than #2 and likely the best option going forward? What are the odds they beat Vegas, Dallas and McDavid and get to the SCF? I'm guessing not worth the risk to go with option #2.

I’m gonna reserve judgement till I see Rantanen’s comments. But now we are seeing they had negotiations this week and also they didn’t talk to him months prior. I’m gonna continue to hammer home, this situation doesn’t seem money related. Seems culture/character related. Something about Rantanen put them off. On an 8 year deal they could have made the money work to where it’s equal to 14x7. Something doesn’t quite feel right.

 

[ACC1224]

I’m gonna reserve judgement till I see Rantanen’s comments. But now we are seeing they had negotiations this week and also they didn’t talk to him months prior. I’m gonna continue to hammer home, this situation doesn’t seem money related. Seems culture/character related. Something about Rantanen put them off. On an 8 year deal they could have made the money work to where it’s equal to 14x7. Something doesn’t quite feel right.

Only thing we know for sure is that the Avalanche don’t value Rantanen as highly as a few here do.

 

[Jojalu]

Maybe Sakic is willing to take a step back to take two steps forward. He's got a cost controlled Necas who might explode playing with MacKinnon.

For a year and a half. If he explodes playing with Mack, he is just going to be in the same position again after next year.

It was a bold move and we probably won't find out all the reasons it was done but it sure as hell is interesting speculating on it

 

[francis246]

For a year and a half. If he explodes playing with Mack, he is just going to be in the same position again after next year.

It was a bold move and we probably won't find out all the reasons it was done but it sure as hell is interesting speculating on it

Definitely still some risk on the avs part because Necas is a UFA at the end of the 1.5 years. So if he explodes playing with MacKinnon and a rising cap. Won’t they be in a similar situation 1.5 years from now?

 

[Stephen]

I think Avs' move shows some long term planning. They are not expecting immediate turn around for the team. Like you said, they've had their cup. They just didn't want to give Rantanen 14+ AAV he is seeking and be stuck with that cap hit for long term while Makar's new negotiation would be up too.

My guess is that Avs are planning a mini re-tool and then in a year or two from now would be back contending until Mack is old and then they will do a full rebuild.

Bottom line is that they've got their cup. I wish Leafs could win the CUP too and then they can offer whatever aav to whoever I wouldn't care

Starting a retool with Mackinnon at 29 and Makar at 25 doesn’t make sense to me, especially when the piece you’re moving off is a 28 year old Rantanen. But like we’ve been saying, they’ve won a cup and are in a different place on the contending curve compared to where Toronto is.

 

[GoonieFace]

Definitely still some risk on the avs part because Necas is a UFA at the end of the 1.5 years. So if he explodes playing with MacKinnon and a rising cap. Won’t they be in a similar situation 1.5 years from now?

Not really. Necas doesn’t have the track record Rantanen has. There is no way he gets even 10m/year. At least I don’t think so…..

 

[Stephen]

Definitely still some risk on the avs part because Necas is a UFA at the end of the 1.5 years. So if he explodes playing with MacKinnon and a rising cap. Won’t they be in a similar situation 1.5 years from now?

Plus if the cap is rising at a massive rate that would also soften the Rantanen cap hit they would have paid. What’s the actual delta here that they’re trying to manage? $12.5 million vs $14 million? They ended their era with that core over $1.5 million in cap savings? That’s a 1.5% if the cap is $100 million.

 

[Jojalu]

Definitely still some risk on the avs part because Necas is a UFA at the end of the 1.5 years. So if he explodes playing with MacKinnon and a rising cap. Won’t they be in a similar situation 1.5 years from now?

Exactly. I don't think Necas will be as good as MR but it is definately a possibilty.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nylanders poor defensive numbers and facing lesser comp is what brings him down. He's one of the best scoring wingers in the league and being used well. I dont think he could thrive with the comp guys like MM and AM face. It's just not his game. He needs to be a Kessel for us in the playoffs and has largely played that role.

Tavares is a different player than when he arrived. He quickly became one of the top faceoff guys in hockey with us and has now changed his game to a far more responsible defensive style. He's going to take a big haircut to stay with the team as he already has been paid and wants to stay. How much he gets depends on how well he does for us in the playoffs. If he gets any more than 7, it means he (and we) have had a great playoffs IMO.

Yes, Willy's +9 over the last 2+ seasons is much worse than JT's -2, but we can blame that on JT facing tougher competition way up on the second line than Willy does playing far down on the second line.

The Athletic has had, imo, JT too high and Willy too low for a long time, but this seems egregious.

 

[arso40]

This comp stuff is nonsense. The quality of linemates is far more important. How would Mitch fair playing with Holmberg and McMann, or whatever leftovers Nylander gets saddled with.

It’s common sense he lost mcmann today to play with domi and holmberg

 

[Gabriel426]

I’m gonna reserve judgement till I see Rantanen’s comments. But now we are seeing they had negotiations this week and also they didn’t talk to him months prior. I’m gonna continue to hammer home, this situation doesn’t seem money related. Seems culture/character related. Something about Rantanen put them off. On an 8 year deal they could have made the money work to where it’s equal to 14x7. Something doesn’t quite feel right.

The 8 yrs Vs 7 yrs thing is really not as big a deal as some want to believe.
I understand that Hockey is a physical sports and injuries do happen but I don’t think these top players without injury issues make it into a deal breaker.
Like signing bonuses front loaded contract.
They play a factor but not a main factor.

Personally, I think it is a combination of reasons and money is a huge part of it.
Like I said, would be interesting to see what Rantanen signs at the end.

 

[Gabriel426]

Starting a retool with Mackinnon at 29 and Makar at 25 doesn’t make sense to me, especially when the piece you’re moving off is a 28 year old Rantanen. But like we’ve been saying, they’ve won a cup and are in a different place on the contending curve compared to where Toronto is.

I truly believe this is the first of the trades from Avs.
Sid will be calling the shot on whether he wants to head to Avs or not.

 

[Gabriel426]

Definitely still some risk on the avs part because Necas is a UFA at the end of the 1.5 years. So if he explodes playing with MacKinnon and a rising cap. Won’t they be in a similar situation 1.5 years from now?

Depends how much he explodes.
Bc 6.5-13mil(think that’s Rantanen’s number) is a pretty big gap.

 

[francis246]

Not really. Necas doesn’t have the track record Rantanen has. There is no way he gets even 10m/year. At least I don’t think so…..

If the cap is at or close to 100 mill in 2 years. Necas will make close to 10 million. Necas is about to join one of the best power plays in the league. That was one of his contention points when he held out with Carolina. His numbers were low because he didn’t get PP time. This year he was a big part of Carolina’s power play.

And if the avs don’t want to pay him that because they feel it’s too high, they’ll be in the same situation because Necas will go to UFA. Necas has already shown he’s willing to play hard ball. So it’s really just kicking the same problem down the road 1.5 years from now. I do expect the avs to active Landeskog so he’ll be a big boost.

 

[LeafEgo]

Plus if the cap is rising at a massive rate that would also soften the Rantanen cap hit they would have paid. What’s the actual delta here that they’re trying to manage? $12.5 million vs $14 million? They ended their era with that core over $1.5 million in cap savings? That’s a 1.5% if the cap is $100 million.

More info to come but I think the first guess on this situation is that they valued cap agility building around M&M more than paying beaucoup bucks to a third superstar. Avoiding a studs and duds approach.

They had a very fortunate cup path, but always had problems getting consistency/reliability out of that team.

 

[Gabriel426]

More info to come but I think the first guess on this situation is that they valued cap agility building around M&M more than paying beaucoup bucks to a third superstar. Avoiding a studs and duds approach.

They had a very fortunate cup path, but always had problems getting consistency/reliability out of that team.

Think missing Landy the past two seasons really affect they ability to ice two solid lines to compete.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Hypothetical of all hypotheticals.

Which would you rather?

Marner 13M x 8
Marner defers 1.07M per year so it's 11.93M cap
NMC
All the signing bonuses etc

Rantanen 14M x 7
Rantanen defers 2M per year to get the cap hit to 12M
NMC
All signing bonuses

 

[francis246]

Plus if the cap is rising at a massive rate that would also soften the Rantanen cap hit they would have paid. What’s the actual delta here that they’re trying to manage? $12.5 million vs $14 million? They ended their era with that core over $1.5 million in cap savings? That’s a 1.5% if the cap is $100 million.

Hence why I keep repeating it. This is not a money issue. They maybe didn’t like something about Rantanen and felt like he was no longer going to be apart of their org anymore. Maybe something was said in negotiations. Maybe it’s just the fact that they didn’t like that he compares himself to Nate MacK. Whatever it is, it’s either deeper than just asking for market value or the Avs completely panicked like Strickland said.

The info surrounding this is so weird. We’re hearing they didn’t talk to him for months. But also hearing the had some negotiations this past week.

 

[GoonieFace]

If the cap is at or close to 100 mill in 2 years. Necas will make close to 10 million. Necas is about to join one of the best power plays in the league. That was one of his contention points when he held out with Carolina. His numbers were low because he didn’t get PP time. This year he was a big part of Carolina’s power play.

And if the avs don’t want to pay him that because they feel it’s too high, they’ll be in the same situation because Necas will go to UFA. Necas has already shown he’s willing to play hard ball. So it’s really just kicking the same problem down the road 1.5 years from now. I do expect the avs to active Landeskog so he’ll be a big boost.

Necas say at $10mil is different from Rantanen at $13-14 mil.

I think the key is that he won’t ask for more than MacKinnon. Have to give them credit to putting their team structure first. Or it could be as simple as Rantanen not wanting to be there

 

[francis246]

Necas say at $10mil is different from Rantanen at $13-14 mil.

I think the key is that he won’t ask for more than MacKinnon. Have to give them credit to putting their team structure first. Or it could be as simple as Rantanen not wanting to be there

Wasn’t comparing the money per se but more so being in a situation where you might end up having a player who has the ability to go to UFA & asking for Market value again and not feeling he’s worth that.

Agreed they made a bold move

 

[Stephen]

More info to come but I think the first guess on this situation is that they valued cap agility building around M&M more than paying beaucoup bucks to a third superstar. Avoiding a studs and duds approach.

They had a very fortunate cup path, but always had problems getting consistency/reliability out of that team.

My feeling is you need the superstars to lead the way but you can't miss on the value contracts. Rantanen makes them special. You add a Kadri and Landeskog in his place with the cap flexibility, they aren't as good a team.

 

[Stephen]

Anyway, I wonder what this trade does for Mitch Marner and the Toronto Maple Leafs? Reinforce their mutual interest and commitment to one another, or does it push the relationship into a purely transactional, asset management, contract maximization stance?