Model Description: Expected Goals Fabric
Interesting read. In short, a look at goal odds based on shot type and shot location based on cumulative data sine 2010.
- Carter Hart is good. He clocks in at decreasing goal odds by ~4% compared to baseline data, which places him #6ish among all full time NHL starters. He's 21.
- If Giroux takes a shot, it has ~4% better odds of resulting in a goal compared to baseline data
Most importantly, and I've been beating this drum for so long...offensive "zone time" is overrated as hell. I include this as part of the HockeyGuy logic. According to this data, goal odds are DOUBLED when on the rush. To put this in perspective, that is exactly the impact a 5v3 has on goal odds according to this tracking. In other words, scoring chances generated on the rush are equally as dangerous as those generated on a 5v3. "Sustained pressure" is antiquated. The game is different; speed and skill. These qualities are conducive to rushes. This data further shows the onus should not be on dump, chase, bang bodies, and get pucks to the net (Hakstol) but to make quick outlet passes from the Dzone to the NZ with forward support and speed. It shows how important carry ins are. It shows how important a smooth skating Dman who can pass is. It shows how important possession stats in general are.
Does "sustained pressure" matter? Of course- it can cause matchup issues if the offensive team is able to change (and can render the defending team stationary if sustained enough) and can be a catalyst for momentum. However, dumping and chasing then "hoping" for a shift to cause these things is a fool's game; these shifts rarely occur anyway- what is much more reliable is to organize and execute an attack with speed starting from the back 3rd of the rink. Besides, who says a zone entry like that won't cause sustained pressure if a goal isn't scored? Couple that possibility with the fact that rushes are just as dangerous as a 5v3....well...the choice is clear.
tl;dr Hart and Giroux are good. Transition/rush hockey is great. Dump and chase stinks.