Minnesota Wild General Discussion XI

[AKL]

I just feel like there’s not much of an internal decision to make. If you can sign him long term, do it, unless he’s asking for too much and you don’t think he can be this 70-80 point player going forward.

I would think the decision is more on Fiala and whether he wants to bet on himself to do it again and make even more next year.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The last 50 games has been a ~77 point pace. The last 60 games has been a ~73 point pace. If Fiala comes to the table, it's to be a paid as a 23 year old 75+ point player; otherwise, stay away and bet on himself.

I think he'd like to put himself somewhere between Kyle Connor (66 point player at 22... $50 million over 7 years) and Mikko Rantanen (87 point player at 22... $55 million over 6 years).

 

[Bazeek]

We're already at 50-60 games.

At a ppg pace? I haven't actually checked, but in my head his season has gone something like...

First 10-20: bottom-6 minutes and healthy scratches
Middle 20: top-6 minutes and top-6 production
Last 20: ascended to godhead

But 50-60 or 70-80 or whatever, we're talking about more than half a season of either good or great production. I think everyone can agree that we should basically disregard those first 10-20 games and if he finishes the season strong I can't think of a reason to be skeptical anymore. This hasn't come out of nowhere, he's shown flashes of it for years.

 

[AKL]

I think everyone can agree that we should basically disregard those first 10-20 games and if he finishes the season strong I can't think of a reason to be skeptical anymore. This hasn't come out of nowhere, he's shown flashes of it for years.

That’s why I’m wondering where the “internal decision” is. I’m assuming internal is signifying Guerin and his staff, but the only decision on whether to get him extended should come from Fiala.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

At a ppg pace? I haven't actually checked, but in my head his season has gone something like...

First 10-20: bottom-6 minutes and healthy scratches
Middle 20: top-6 minutes and top-6 production
Last 20: ascended to godhead

But 50-60 or 70-80 or whatever, we're talking about more than half a season of either good or great production. I think everyone can agree that we should basically disregard those first 10-20 games and if he finishes the season strong I can't think of a reason to be skeptical anymore. This hasn't come out of nowhere, he's shown flashes of it for years.

Not quite ppg, but high enough and long enough to make the difference fairly irrelevant as far as negotiating purposes go.

 

[Bazeek]

That’s why I’m wondering where the “internal decision” is. I’m assuming internal is signifying Guerin and his staff, but the only decision on whether to get him extended should come from Fiala.

Fiala's camp is obviously a factor in any internal debate, even if they're not present. I assume they don't discuss this stuff in strictly binary, yes/no terms. It'll be about comfort zones and how much they can commit based on what he's done this year. At a certain point the Wild aren't saving any money by committing early.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

My hope is $63 million over 8 years.

 

[Bazeek]

My hope is $63 million over 8 years.

With the way the cap is headed I don't think we should have many reservations about offering that. I think the question would be whether Fiala's willing to sell off that many UFA years.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Russo just confirmed KHL doesn’t respect the agreement and the Khovanov could leave for KHL if he wants

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The thing about Fiala's current "God Mode" streak, is that usually when guys go on these things, especially if goal scoring is a major part of it (which it is for Fiala, of the 23 points in the last 16 games, 12 are goals), is that usually guys are shooting in way above what could be considered normal, high 20's, maybe even 30's as far as % goes. Fiala is at 18.5% over those 16 games. Look at the guys on top of the goal scoring leaderboard this year. There are tons in the 17%-20% range. This isn't a 'regression to the mean' type thing.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Russo just confirmed KHL doesn’t respect the agreement and the Khovanov could leave for KHL if he wants

Nah, he confirmed he doesn't trust the KHL and CSKA, and that was his reasoning for saying that.

With the financial situation the KHL is in, installing a hard 14m Cap, you think they are going to blow up the only agreement that stopped the Wild from trying to poach Kaprizov the last two years? Or any other young player after?

At this point the KHL/NHL memorandum on contracts benefits the KHL much more then the NHL. Gone are the days they can try poach quality NHLers with ridiculous cash. They have respected every contract since 2011. They're going to blow that up for Khovanov? I don't buy it.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

For me, I’m fairly certain Fiala is at least a 70 point player going forward. So, if I can sign him as one now, I’d do it because he could be an 80-90 point guy. Anything under 8 million and I put pen to paper

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Nah, he confirmed he doesn't trust the KHL and CSKA, and that was his reasoning for saying that.

With the financial situation the KHL is in, installing a hard 14m Cap, you think they are going to blow up the only agreement that stopped the Wild from trying to poach Kaprizov the last two years? Or any other young player after?

At this point the KHL/NHL memorandum on contracts benefits the KHL much more then the NHL. Gone are the days they can try poach quality NHLers with ridiculous cash. They have respected every contract since 2011. They're going to blow that up for Khovanov? I don't buy it.

Russo sounded pretty certain CSKA will sign him if Khovanov is willing

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

With the way the cap is headed I don't think we should have many reservations about offering that. I think the question would be whether Fiala's willing to sell off that many UFA years.

Yeah, I'd just hate giving him 5 or 6 and having to make the long-term decision on him at 29 or 30, like we had to with Spurgeon and like we would've with Granlund (had we not traded him).

He turns 24 in the summer and has another year left on the bridge, so his new contract will kick in when he's freshly 25 years old. What is that, 2 more years until the UFA years kick in? He would almost have to go to a 3 year deal to put him in a spot to cash in long-term at ~28. 5 years puts him at 30 years old when his next contract would kick in which, while recognizing how free agent dollars get thrown around, isn't the safest bet for a big cash-in. 8 years puts him at 32 years old at expiration.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Russo sounded pretty certain CSKA will sign him if Khovanov is willing

Well, we can just call him back whenever we need him then.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Russo sounded pretty certain CSKA will sign him if Khovanov is willing

Russo thinks that the KHL is the boogeyman and CSKA can do anything they want (ignoring that the KHL implemented a hard cap over their very vocal objections). His followup tweets made that pretty clear.

They are in the midst of extreme viability issues, a league can't survive with only the 5 teams that are profitable. You telling me the KHL is going to allow CSKA to blow up the only thing that protects it's assets from NHL poaching?

Only way Khovanov ends up in the KHL is if the Wild loan him there and allow it.

 

[MuckOG]

Russo sounded pretty certain CSKA will sign him if Khovanov is willing

I don't think its a given that Khovanov will start in Iowa. Depending on what Guerin does to address the center position this summer, there could be a real opportunity for him to start next season in the NHL if he has a strong camp.

 

[Bazeek]

Yeah, I'd just hate giving him 5 or 6 and having to make the long-term decision on him at 29 or 30, like we had to with Spurgeon and like we would've with Granlund (had we not traded him).

He turns 24 in the summer and has another year left on the bridge, so his new contract will kick in when he's freshly 25 years old. What is that, 2 more years until the UFA years kick in? He would almost have to go to a 3 year deal to put him in a spot to cash in long-term at ~28. 5 years puts him at 30 years old when his next contract would kick in which, while recognizing how free agent dollars get thrown around, isn't the safest bet for a big cash-in. 8 years puts him at 32 years old at expiration.

I'd also like to see them push for max term on this one, even if it gets pricey. I think the player has more to lose than the team at that term, but Fiala sounds like he wants to be The Guy and the Wild can credibly offer him that for the next 8 years. Maybe that works in their favor.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Well, we can just call him back whenever we need him then.

I’m not worried about it. Was just stating what Russo said

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Russo thinks that the KHL is the boogeyman and CSKA can do anything they want (ignoring that the KHL implemented a hard cap over their very vocal objections). His followup tweets made that pretty clear.

They are in the midst of extreme viability issues, a league can't survive with only the 5 teams that are profitable. You telling me the KHL is going to allow CSKA to blow up the only thing that protects it's assets from NHL poaching?

Only way Khovanov ends up in the KHL is if the Wild loan him there and allow it.

Listen. I don’t think it matters where Khovanov plays next year if it’s not in the NHL. I’m just saying, when Russo says something, I’m a lot more inclined to believe it than when you say something.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Listen. I don’t think it matters where Khovanov plays next year if it’s not in the NHL. I’m just saying, when Russo says something, I’m a lot more inclined to believe it than when you say something.

And if he had said there is some loophole in the memorandum between the NHL and KHL that allows Khovanov to go, sure. I'd buy that.

HIs response was CSKA could make it happen if they wanted to, and the KHL/NHL agreement is only worth the KHL's willingness to enforce it.

There hasn't been a player poached since the agreement was signed, and Russo isn't exactly a KHL expert.

I'll take the rules that have been enforced over Russo's KHL/CSKA boogeyman conjecture (which let's be honest, isn't a new thing from him).

 

[thestonedkoala]

Which agreement is that, ThatGuy22?

My understanding is there was an agreement set up around the time Radulov left for Russia back around 10 years ago between IIHF, NHL and KHL.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Which agreement is that, ThatGuy22?

My understanding is there was an agreement set up around the time Radulov left for Russia back around 10 years ago between IIHF, NHL and KHL.

Radulov left in 2008. They finally decided to stop trying to poach players in 2011. No player has been poached since.

NHL, KHL agree to player movement regulations


As of December 2019, according to this KHL report on their salary cap it is still in effect.

The road to the salary cap

 

[Webster]

I got some news about Zuccarello, since it's now official. He's playing with an injury, and he may need surgery after the season.

Team Norway's management had a meeting with Guerin. He has no problem with Zuccarello playing in upcoming tournaments, once this health issue has been fixed. I guess Guerin will allow all Wild players to play for their country, if they make the team.

Russo also just got a name in Norway as media there has picked up some of his tweets about Mats, mostly criticism. Norway's head coach said Mats likes it here and couldn't care less about Russo's tweets...lol

Source...here's your chance to learn some Viking language, or use a translator.

Landslagssjefens gladmelding: Zucca positiv til Norge-spill

 

[TaLoN]

I got some news about Zuccarello, since it's now official. He's playing with an injury, and he may need surgery after the season.

Team Norway's management had a meeting with Guerin. He has no problem with Zuccarello playing in upcoming tournaments, once this health issue has been fixed. I guess Guerin will allow all Wild players to play for their country, if they make the team.

Russo also just got a name in Norway as media there has picked up some of his tweets about Mats, mostly criticism. Norway's head coach said Mats likes it here and couldn't care less about Russo's tweets...lol

Source...here's your chance to learn some Viking language, or use a translator.

Landslagssjefens gladmelding: Zucca positiv til Norge-spill

Just read on google translate... it said injuries have prevented him from playing with the national team in past seasons, but doesn't say anything about a specific injury right now.