Player Discussion Mike Reilly (D) acquired from the Montreal Canadiens

Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
31,642
10,556
Montreal, Canada
Sell absolutely high.

Whether we re-sign him, or whether we sign an equal or worse replacement, we will still finish bottom 5 next year so might as well pickup a free pick while you're at it.

Thought of re-signing this guy makes me shudder. Wouldn't mind him on bottom pair but absolutely nothing higher.

Another bottom-5 finish? 5 years in a row? Damn, that's depressing. Now imagine IF Dorion didn't have assets like Karlsson, Stone, Zibanejad/Brassard, Turris/Duchene, Pageau, Dzingel, etc to trade and a guy like Chabot in the bank

We'd be looking at a 10 years rebuild?

His on-ice impact is easily worth a 2nd round pick, but if often takes a long time for the perception of a player to match the reality. I doubt a team would give up more than a 4th to acquire him.

Gotta keep him.

Not sure what you're trying to say here. The NHL is a market. The price will be what someone is willing to pay
 
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OD99

Registered User
Oct 13, 2012
5,182
4,391
He makes boneheaded decisions all the time and his odd assist won't change that.

We need upgrades all over so hard to pick on him but we need an upgrade there for sure.
 
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Ouroboros

There is no armour against Fate
Feb 3, 2008
15,621
11,391
Not sure what you're trying to say here. The NHL is a market. The price will be what someone is willing to pay

I'm talking about the difference between the actual value of a player vs. his perceived value. The market will pay what it thinks Reilly is worth, but that has no bearing on what his true value is. We short-change ourselves by selling something when the market/perceived value is far less than the real value.

That's what happened with Dylan DeMelo. The Senators sold him for what the market would pay - a 3rd round pick - but his on-ice contributions were worth much more.

Then the Senators brought in Gudbranson, a player the exact opposite of Reilly and DeMelo - one whose perceived value greatly exceeds his real value.
 

Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
31,642
10,556
Montreal, Canada
I'm talking about the difference between the actual value of a player vs. his perceived value. The market will pay what it thinks Reilly is worth, but that has no bearing on what his true value is. We short-change ourselves by selling something when the market/perceived value is far less than the real value.

That's what happened with Dylan DeMelo. The Senators sold him for what the market would pay - a 3rd round pick - but his on-ice contributions were worth much more.

Then the Senators brought in Gudbranson, a player the exact opposite of Reilly and DeMelo - one whose perceived value greatly exceeds his real value.

This perceived value thing sounds more directed at hockey fans in general. But they're not the ones making the trades. NHL teams look at this seriously. They look at all stats, watch games live and re-watch "tapes". They know what a player can do and cannot do. Teams might not think that players like Tierney and Reilly would do as well on their team with less ice-time and opportunity than vs their current situation in Ottawa. It's that kind of reason why teams were not lining up to sign Anthony Duclair last season despite a very good season.

In the end, the market will dictate what Reilly is worth at this point in time. I'm hoping for a 3rd and good AHL D-man that could take a shift in the NHL, which is a lot more than I would have hope months ago.

Note : DeMelo was clearly worth more to Ottawa than he was worth on the NHL market. He's the #6 in Winnipeg, who is not a team known to have a strong defense.
 

Ouroboros

There is no armour against Fate
Feb 3, 2008
15,621
11,391
This perceived value thing sounds more directed at hockey fans in general. But they're not the ones making the trades. NHL teams look at this seriously. They look at all stats, watch games live and re-watch "tapes". They know what a player can do and cannot do. Teams might not think that players like Tierney and Reilly would do as well on their team with less ice-time and opportunity than vs their current situation in Ottawa. It's that kind of reason why teams were not lining up to sign Anthony Duclair last season despite a very good season.

In the end, the market will dictate what Reilly is worth at this point in time. I'm hoping for a 3rd and good AHL D-man that could take a shift in the NHL, which is a lot more than I would have hope months ago.

Note : DeMelo was clearly worth more to Ottawa than he was worth on the NHL market. He's the #6 in Winnipeg, who is not a team known to have a strong defense.

No, it's not directed at fans. That would be something altogether different. Let me give you an example - over the next few days, some team is going to pay a substantial price to acquire David Savard. This will likely prove to be a mistake as the player is in steep decline, but that's not the way Savard is being perceived in NHL circles.

I see this sort of thing all the time with 'name brand' players that are generally thought to be much better than they truly are. Matt Duchene. Matt Murray. Taylor Hall. Patrik Laine. Many such cases. This is different from low value players [like Tierney and Duclair] that are rightfully valued as poor/mediocre.

I don't think a true Cup contender would have Reilly playing 20 minutes a game the way we do, but there are playoff teams that have worse defensemen playing about as much. Is he not better than the likes of Jason Demers, Ben Harpur, Jordan Oesterle, Connor Clifton, and Tucker Poolman? He could help a lot of teams, but they likley wouldn't pay enough to make it feasible. Reilly is under appreciated in that respect.

I don't see how getting a 3rd or 4th round pick helps. The pressure on DJ Smith and Pierre Dorion is going to be immense next season. Both entering the final years of their respective contracts and both needing to produce some serious results. Opening up a hole in the top-4 for a marginal return shouldn't be on the agenda. If Brannstrom were playing better and developing, that might allow the Sens to move Reilly. Unfortunately that's not the case. So what happens? You deal Reilly for a 4th and then in July you send that same pick to Montreal for Brett Kulak because you need a cheap player that can eat minutes? Or you sign Ben Hutton or something? Pointless.

A 2 year deal at about 2.5M per is perfect for Reilly and the team. A nice pay bump for the player and he gets to stay in a good situation for him, while the club gets a nice bridge to Jake Sanderson.
 

supsens

Registered User
Oct 6, 2013
6,577
2,001
Another bottom-5 finish? 5 years in a row? Damn, that's depressing. Now imagine IF Dorion didn't have assets like Karlsson, Stone, Zibanejad/Brassard, Turris/Duchene, Pageau, Dzingel, etc to trade and a guy like Chabot in the bank

We'd be looking at a 10 years rebuild?



Not sure what you're trying to say here. The NHL is a market. The price will be what someone is willing to pay

Ya the draft lottery made the rebuils take some extra time, if this draft handed the sens a top line center Brady and Josh would make a great second line
weird draft this year that part sucks but you gotta admit its so close to being rebuilt if things go ok
 

Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
31,642
10,556
Montreal, Canada
No, it's not directed at fans. That would be something altogether different. Let me give you an example - over the next few days, some team is going to pay a substantial price to acquire David Savard. This will likely prove to be a mistake as the player is in steep decline, but that's not the way Savard is being perceived in NHL circles.

I see this sort of thing all the time with 'name brand' players that are generally thought to be much better than they truly are. Matt Duchene. Matt Murray. Taylor Hall. Patrik Laine. Many such cases. This is different from low value players [like Tierney and Duclair] that are rightfully valued as poor/mediocre.

I don't think a true Cup contender would have Reilly playing 20 minutes a game the way we do, but there are playoff teams that have worse defensemen playing about as much. Is he not better than the likes of Jason Demers, Ben Harpur, Jordan Oesterle, Connor Clifton, and Tucker Poolman? He could help a lot of teams, but they likley wouldn't pay enough to make it feasible. Reilly is under appreciated in that respect.

I don't see how getting a 3rd or 4th round pick helps. The pressure on DJ Smith and Pierre Dorion is going to be immense next season. Both entering the final years of their respective contracts and both needing to produce some serious results. Opening up a hole in the top-4 for a marginal return shouldn't be on the agenda. If Brannstrom were playing better and developing, that might allow the Sens to move Reilly. Unfortunately that's not the case. So what happens? You deal Reilly for a 4th and then in July you send that same pick to Montreal for Brett Kulak because you need a cheap player that can eat minutes? Or you sign Ben Hutton or something? Pointless.

A 2 year deal at about 2.5M per is perfect for Reilly and the team. A nice pay bump for the player and he gets to stay in a good situation for him, while the club gets a nice bridge to Jake Sanderson.

Teams are not going to acquire David Savard and give him a 5 years extension though. Maybe he could get an extension from the team acquiring him but the goal will be to have him help the team during the playoffs. They might not necessarily care if he's going to be bad in a year or two. They are expecting him to help their team for a limited period of time. There will be a market price for that. Everything works by supply and demand.

If a team pays more for David Savard than another team for Mike Reilly, it is NOT because they are biased and have no idea what they are doing, perceived value, etc... it's simply about supply and demand, like every market

Players like Matt Duchene, Matt Murray, Taylor Hall, Patrik Laine are acquired based on their ABILITY and what they have been able to do in the recent past. It's always a gamble but they hope they will play at similar levels for their team. Matt Murray dominated the AHL at 20-21 y/o and won 2 cups (stealing the job twice from a goalie that will be 3rd in All-Time Wins by the end of the season) before he was 23 y/o. Has any goalie ever done that before? All these players are still young and could/will rebound in the next few seasons. Sometimes they just don't fit in some systems (as expected, Patrik Laine was going to be a bad fit in Columbus with Torts but thigns could change if they move on from Torts)

That type of players will always have more value (without considering contract term of course) than players like Mike Reilly, except for goalies but it's another subject.

I don't think Reilly is "under appreciated", I think he's done well considering what he has shown in the past but I'm not sure if teams see him as a steady guy you can rely on in the playoffs, hence why the price for him will be modest. Again, I don't think it's because they are "biased"

IMO, guys like Tierney and Reilly are exactly the types you should try to trade at their peak value and not hold on to them until their value plummets. But what do I know? Ottawa Senators clearly know best. I don't know what Dorion should do or not do next off-season, that's not my job and also not my problem.

Ya the draft lottery made the rebuils take some extra time, if this draft handed the sens a top line center Brady and Josh would make a great second line
weird draft this year that part sucks but you gotta admit its so close to being rebuilt if things go ok

Disagree. You have to be able to find pieces all kind of ways and not only rely on drafting as high as possible. Or you end up like the Sabres or Oilers and still don't succeed.
 
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BondraTime

Registered User
Nov 20, 2005
29,691
25,335
East Coast
Playoff teams aren’t going to give up value for Reilly, they don’t trade for that kind of player for a playoff run.
 

coladin

Registered User
Sep 18, 2009
11,993
4,748
Not sure how trading him is going to help Ottawa. Like him or not, the results speak for themselves. People will remember the bonehead plays that end up being inconsequential more often than not, like right after we scored last night, that ridiculous slap pass to Zub, that ended up in a turnover. he is really hard to like. But his number show a different story. I would extend him for one year
 

Ice-Tray

Registered User
Jan 31, 2006
16,619
8,531
Victoria
He can also skate and rush the puck and is comfortable shooting the puck and playing deep in the O zone to try and score. He also seems be a bit nasty at a times.

Decent D, I like him and sign him to be a bridge until Sandy and JBD are ready to fill the gaps. Unless we have eyes on a top D that fits the core going forward, but as far as filler/placeholder guys go, I like him for the job.
 

bicboi64

Registered User
Aug 13, 2020
5,363
3,488
Brampton
Maybe we can con Florida into thinking Reilly can make up for some of the offense they lost with Ekblad?
 

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