Blue Jays Discussion: Midway point in the season and things don't look.. Ugh.. Good

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Bad News Benning]

I don't see why the jays should be even interested at Bruce at this point. We need to look at making moves that get us younger and more athletic.

I'd be targeting young players that are blocked in other organizations.

 

[hockeywiz542]

they continue to say they like this team that has attempted to get to .500 nine times in the first half, only to lose nine times: At the break they are 41-47, closer to last in the american league than they are to contention.

and yet, the players will tell you they believe. They believe in this group. Well, not all of them will tell you that. Josh donaldson, for one, is the prince of pragmatism here, seemingly alone in thought in the jays clubhouse.

"it's not about believing," said donaldson. "plain and simple, we need to play better."

when asked if he'd have believed the jays would be this terrible when he left dunedin to start the season, donaldson said: "you know the answer to that."

he walked away, heading out of the clubhouse not heading to the all-star game for the first time in four years, not sure what this team will look like a month from now.

the top of the jays lineup, with jose bautista and russell martin, might be the slowest 1-2 hitters in baseball. They have smoak hitting fourth and statistically he's slower than kendrys morales hitting fifth. You need three hits to score morales from first base. And he's signed for two more years. After him in the lineup is troy tulowitzki, who fields well, but doesn't hit or run well any more.

Five of the first six hitters in the jays lineup can't run at all.

It's probably why the club is last in the american league in triples, 14th in doubles hit and 14th in runs scored. And speed has little to do with the fact they're 29th in all of baseball in hitting with runners in scoring position. The run differential on the two losses to houston this weekend: Minus-28.

to recap: The jays are on their way to a cycle of incompetence: They can't hit, they can't run, they don't hit with men on base, they don't field particularly well. Their record, as bill parcells might say, is who they are.

The public notion from management that this season is salvageable, and they are playing to contend, is a weak appeasement to the blue jays' terrific attendance and television audience. This is where business interferes with baseball.

It's time to begin to fix this team - which has only gotten worse since mark shapiro and ross atkins took over as president and general manager - and to hell with the profit margins and the t-shirts sold.

Donaldson, their best player, seems to understand that. The rest of the clubhouse remains myopically trapped in mistaken optimism.

 

[Bad News Benning]

of course i still don't see how moncada can be the #1 prospect in baseball with his K issues.

Prospect sites tend to ignore the warning signs and red flags because they obsess too much over raw tools. I'd personally rate guys like Moncada and Barreto a lot lower in my rankings than most. Moncada shouldn't be number one given the obvious holes in his approach that will be exposed even more at the next level.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Prospect sites tend to ignore the warning signs and red flags because they obsess too much over raw tools. I'd personally rate guys like Moncada and Barreto a lot lower in my rankings than most. Moncada shouldn't be number one given the obvious holes in his approach that will be exposed even more at the next level.

He's also likely an outfielder. So is Barreto.

 

[Stats01]

Where was he ranked? 1.4 mil is a pretty legit bonus.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Where was he ranked? 1.4 mil is a pretty legit bonus.

In the teens.

 

[zeke]

He's also likely an outfielder. So is Barreto.

agred on moncada's fielding....but i thought barreto profiled as a 2B at least?

 

[zeke]

Prospect sites tend to ignore the warning signs and red flags because they obsess too much over raw tools. I'd personally rate guys like Moncada and Barreto a lot lower in my rankings than most. Moncada shouldn't be number one given the obvious holes in his approach that will be exposed even more at the next level.

yeah for sure.

it always bugs me when little things like K-rates and defensive hands aren't considered tools.

of course could just be that right now there's a bit of a gap in the minors right now before the true top talents reach the high minors.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

agred on moncada's fielding....but i thought barreto profiled as a 2B at least?

They're still talking about CF for him, apparently.

 

[supermann_98]

A negative story needs to be written?
Simmons to the "rescue".

Oh how I loathe this guy.

The Jays do suck however, and the crap disease has spread from the hitters to the pitching staff.

I'd be shocked if Atkins/Shapiro don't unload at the trade deadline. I'm not talking about something huge like a Donaldson trade, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Estrada, Happ, or Liriano get shipped for prospects. Tulo is untradable with that contract and I doubt Bautista garners any interest.

Maybe management would consider trading Smoak? Sell high kinda thinking?

 

[Stats01]

In the teens.

Ahh ok thanks

 

[Stats01]

A negative story needs to be written?
Simmons to the "rescue".

Oh how I loathe this guy.

The Jays do suck however, and the crap disease has spread from the hitters to the pitching staff.

I'd be shocked if Atkins/Shapiro don't unload at the trade deadline. I'm not talking about something huge like a Donaldson trade, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Estrada, Happ, or Liriano get shipped for prospects. Tulo is untradable with that contract and I doubt Bautista garners any interest.

Maybe management would consider trading Smoak? Sell high kinda thinking?

Josh would be the first person I move. If they're serious about a rebuild than he's obviously going to bring back the most. I would sell high on Smoak, I'd even see how much a team would be willing to give up for Pillar. He's going to be well into his 30's and be making a lot more money by the time this team is back contending. Another guy they should sell high on.

 

[Discoverer]

Ahh ok thanks

#14 by Baseball American, but he was also ranked #5 by MLB.com.

 

[Burke the Legend]

Haha great photo. Kid is like "Not a bad day! 7 big ones in the pocket!"

 

[AllDay28]

Josh would be the first person I move. If they're serious about a rebuild than he's obviously going to bring back the most. I would sell high on Smoak, I'd even see how much a team would be willing to give up for Pillar. He's going to be well into his 30's and be making a lot more money by the time this team is back contending. Another guy they should sell high on.

1. JD is better than the prospects we'll get
2. No one will pay for Smoak
3. dunno what you think Pillar is but he's not that good

 

[ToneDog]

A negative story needs to be written?
Simmons to the "rescue".

Oh how I loathe this guy.

The Jays do suck however, and the crap disease has spread from the hitters to the pitching staff.

I'd be shocked if Atkins/Shapiro don't unload at the trade deadline. I'm not talking about something huge like a Donaldson trade, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Estrada, Happ, or Liriano get shipped for prospects. Tulo is untradable with that contract and I doubt Bautista garners any interest.

Maybe management would consider trading Smoak? Sell high kinda thinking?

I would definitely move Estrada and Liriano. Happ if the return includes a starter that is on the cusp or we will be seeing more double digit loses in the second half.

 

[phillipmike]

From a fantasy perspective;

http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/ba...son-top-25-led-by-amed-rosario-rafael-devers/

 

[canucksfan]

1. JD is better than the prospects we'll get
2. No one will pay for Smoak
3. dunno what you think Pillar is but he's not that good

Of course JD will be better than any prospects the team would get. The point in trading him is to rebuild and hopefully get solid pieces for the future. I am not for trading him unless the team has no desire to sign him to a longer contract and the deal is really good.

The value wouldn't be high for Smoak but teams would be interested.

The last two years Pillar WAR has been 3.2 and 4.3. His defense is great but this year not so much. Teams would be interested in Pillar but again would the value coming back make sense to trade him.

A lot of people look to the Leafs and seem fine with a complete rebuild. However, in baseball it doesn't work that way. It takes much longer and legit prospects are more likely to bust.

Trade the upcoming FAs and get the best deals possible. If a team offers a great deal for Happ/Smoak then maybe unload one of them.

 

[Silver91]

Of course JD will be better than any prospects the team would get. The point in trading him is to rebuild and hopefully get solid pieces for the future. I am not for trading him unless the team has no desire to sign him to a longer contract and the deal is really good.

The value wouldn't be high for Smoak but teams would be interested.

The last two years Pillar WAR has been 3.2 and 4.3. His defense is great but this year not so much. Teams would be interested in Pillar but again would the value coming back make sense to trade him.

A lot of people look to the Leafs and seem fine with a complete rebuild. However, in baseball it doesn't work that way. It takes much longer and legit prospects are more likely to bust.

Trade the upcoming FAs and get the best deals possible. If a team offers a great deal for Happ/Smoak then maybe unload one of them.

I agree with the bolded, that in baseball it takes a lot more time, patience and money to rebuild a team than in hockey.

If the Jays aren't going to be able to keep JD past next season, I'd like to see them put their resources into rebuilding. Use him to get yourself a pair of high end assets, as well as 1-2 secondary pieces. Eat the salary of all rentals to maximize the return. Eat as much of Tulo and Martin's contracts as you need to to get legitimate returns for them. Spend in IFA (I'd like to follow the Red Sox/Yankees plan of just blowing well past the IFA pool and incurring whatever penalties you need to to get as many of the top prospects in as you can).

If rebuilding is the route the Jays plan to take, I would hope they do it right.

 

[Discoverer]

Spend in IFA (I'd like to follow the Red Sox/Yankees plan of just blowing well past the IFA pool and incurring whatever penalties you need to to get as many of the top prospects in as you can).

This isn't an option under the new CBA. Rather than having escalating penalties, IFA spending is just hard-capped now.

 

[canucksfan]

I agree with the bolded, that in baseball it takes a lot more time, patience and money to rebuild a team than in hockey.

If the Jays aren't going to be able to keep JD past next season, I'd like to see them put their resources into rebuilding. Use him to get yourself a pair of high end assets, as well as 1-2 secondary pieces. Eat the salary of all rentals to maximize the return. Eat as much of Tulo and Martin's contracts as you need to to get legitimate returns for them. Spend in IFA (I'd like to follow the Red Sox/Yankees plan of just blowing well past the IFA pool and incurring whatever penalties you need to to get as many of the top prospects in as you can).

If rebuilding is the route the Jays plan to take, I would hope they do it right.

You want experience and veterans on the team. Getting rid of Tulo and Martin is not really necessary IMO. Martin can work with the younger pitchers/catchers. Tulo can work with the infielders.

 

[Silver91]

This isn't an option under the new CBA. Rather than having escalating penalties, IFA spending is just hard-capped now.

Crap, I missed that. All the more reason they should have gone all out when they got Vlad. Oh well, they should still be players on the IFAs that don't count towards the pool.

You want experience and veterans on the team. Getting rid of Tulo and Martin is not really necessary IMO. Martin can work with the younger pitchers/catchers. Tulo can work with the infielders.

Meh, you can sign FAs if you want experience. I'm not saying you have to trade them, but if someone makes an offer that makes sense, and it includes eating money, then I'm not holding onto them for the sake of "veteran leadership"...

 

[zeke]

i find it funny that people keep saying we need to eat money on martin to get value for him when he's one of the best catchers in baseball.

(this list doesn't include platoon catchers like Avila)

Posey 318pa, 142wrc+, 2.9war, 5.9war/650
Grandal 280pa, 109wrc+, 2.1war, 4.9war/650
Sanchez 242pa, 127wrc+, 1.7war, 4.6war/650
Martin 241pa, 115wrc+, 1.6war, 4.3war/650
Realmuto 308pa, 114wrc+, 2.0war, 4.2war/650

pretty sure those are the top 5 catchers in baseball this year.

 

[Mach85]

i find it funny that people keep saying we need to eat money on martin to get value for him when he's one of the best catchers in baseball.

(this list doesn't include platoon catchers like Avila)

Posey 318pa, 142wrc+, 2.9war, 5.9war/650
Grandal 280pa, 109wrc+, 2.1war, 4.9war/650
Sanchez 242pa, 127wrc+, 1.7war, 4.6war/650
Martin 241pa, 115wrc+, 1.6war, 4.3war/650
Realmuto 308pa, 114wrc+, 2.0war, 4.2war/650

pretty sure those are the top 5 catchers in baseball this year.

Martin's framing has also remained stellar, unlike some previous top framers such as Posey (Grandal still rates well IIRC).