GDT: Merged GAME 17 | Sens Rally in Raleigh | Sat Nov 16 2024, 7PM | SN1, TVAS 2

[Pierre from Orleans]

Stü was bring his stick back to receive the pass/one timer, Slavin reached in one handed overtop of Stu's stick to disrupt the shot but lost the handle of his stick,

It was a comically bad call.

This is exactly what I saw.

It was a horseshit call by a terrible ref.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

They played decent 5 on 5 but “running into a hot goalie” doesn’t cut it anymore. It didn’t cut it in November 2022 when that was constantly the story either.

Canes completely dominated big chunks of that game like for example in 1st period where they hemmed us in our own zone. I made a post about the Stutzle disallowed goal - see above (#603). It’s not just what a ref does, but it’s also what we do and what our opponent does that affects the outcome. More Senator goals would have helped the Senators cause immensely. From what I observed, the Canes were the better team, and played a strong game defensively. I agree that there were some bad ref calls, but not sure that was enough to swing the game in our favour against a good team that played well.

The canes dominated the first. And even in the first they broke down several times and we didn’t muster a single shot on the chances they gave us. We have a serious shooting problem on this team.


They forget about batherson early in the first and he flat out refuses to shoot on a semi breakaway.

We came out of the first 1-0 down and played how we should have played in the second. We tied it.

You’re right the hot goalie excuses are bad. We don’t have scoring talent on this team. Pure scoring talent. Just look at the third lol. How many more chances to our forwards want?

Or even Sanderson. Guy gets totally abandoned by all defensive coverage. Alone on the goal he lets off a soft wrister that Martin just blockers away.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

This is exactly what I saw.

It was a horseshit call by a terrible ref.

The only reason it’s worse than the pinto call is because it negated a goal. The pinto call was true true true phantom

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

What was the situation on this? They didn't show it in the highlights.. (of course)

Carolina player was trying to cover Stu braking for the net. Defenseman had one hand on his stick and was reaching out to block/intercept a pass. Stu was skating in slightly ahead of the Canes D and moved his stick back a bit to receive a pass. When that happened, the Carolina D lost his stick. It's hard to tell if Stu actually made contact, or if the D dropped his stick or if he let it go on purpose. Stu scored a second later and the D threw his hands up to get a call...and he did. We lost the goal, and got an interference penalty out of it.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

The only reason it’s worse than the pinto call is because it negated a goal. The pinto call was true true true phantom

Michael Markovic and Jake Brenk are two of the worst referees I've seen.

They've done a few Senator games this year and they were horrible.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Also no more need for cousins. Get Gregor in there.

Cousins f***ing blows. Any amount of head fake or stickhandling and he’s tripping you

 

[Big Muddy]

Well, it's very clear on the replay that Slavin is reaching in to disrupt Stutzle's stick, that's not debatable imo, so if can't agree on the specifics of what happened after he reached in, the question is do you want a situation were a player can drop his stick on contact to draw a penalty? Because Stu didn't come down with a slash of any force at all, he at worst moved his stick back to push away Slavins stick, just like Slavin was trying to disrupt Stu's. If Stu was the one dropping his stick without any major force applied, should that be a penalty on Slavin? We;d have a dropped stick epidemic, it's an absurd call even if you believe somehow Stu's the one who knocked the stick loose.


Not the rest of the game, the first 10 mins until the first goal absolutely, after that things were much closer. If you want to say overall, you might have a case, but the second was pretty evenly played, you could make a fairly strong case that we were the better team in the second too.

Heck, here are the Sens stats at 5v5 for the game.

Period​	CF%​	SF%​	SCF%​	HDCF%​	xGF%​
1​	27.59%​	21.43%​	28.57%​	25.00%​	27.19%​
2​	50.00%​	55.56%​	50.00%​	66.67%​	63.03%​
3​	62.50%​	70.00%​	60.00%​	100.00%​	78.90%​
Final​	45.45%​	45.45%​	46.15%​	61.54%​	52.04%​

Here's the Corsi map

View attachment 931858

There's a pretty stark difference after that first goal in both the map and the underlying stats. If you want to say the Canes were the better team overall, I think thats a fair opinion to hold. But it's built mostly on 10 mins of play. The rest of the game at worst was pretty even,

The NHL does not award wins based on CF%, SF%, SCF%, HDCF%, xGF%. They use goals. The team that gets the most wins. Its always been this way.

Senators got zero goals on their 4 powerplays (can’t remember if Stutzle’s disallowed goal was a PP, but doesn’t matter, still not enough). It's up to the Senators to kill PKs and score when they go on their PPs. That’s a big part of winning and being successful.

BTW, they now call penalties when a player’s stick is knocked out of their hands. Years ago I don’t recall that being the case. No idea why that changed and I do suppose that can lead to some creative cheating. Adapting & overcoming (i.e., on a PK) is part of the game though and the teams that do this often come out on top.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

The NHL does not award wins based on CF%, SF%, SCF%, HDCF%, xGF%. They use goals. The team that gets the most wins. Its always been this way.

Senators got zero goals on their 4 powerplays (can’t remember if Stutzle’s disallowed goal was a PP, but doesn’t matter, still not enough). It's up to the Senators to kill PKs and score when they go on their PPs.

Well. We got it 1 -1 and played a good second.

I understand being annoyed with some arguments. But. There simply more the game. Especially considering how well this team has played. If we were 4-11-2 I could understand more.

But we’re .500 battling for the playoffs right now.

 

[Big Muddy]

Well. We got it 1 -1 and played a good second.

I understand being annoyed with some arguments. But. There simply more the game. Especially considering how well this team has played. If we were 4-11-2 I could understand more.

But we’re .500 battling for the playoffs right now.

I’m not sure I understood everything in your post, but we need to win more games and get above .500. I’ll agree with that. Winning games against lesser opponents would help a lot. Canes are a good team. Their forecheck is suffocating. They are on the player with the puck very quickly and leave little time or space for their opponents. They’ll play the same way the next game and they’ve been consistently one of the better teams in the league for the last few years.

 

[Micklebot]

The NHL does not award wins based on CF%, SF%, SCF%, HDCF%, xGF%. They use goals. The team that gets the most wins. Its always been this way.

Senators got zero goals on their 4 powerplays (can’t remember if Stutzle’s disallowed goal was a PP, but doesn’t matter, still not enough). It's up to the Senators to kill PKs and score when they go on their PPs.

Ok? I fail to see how this supports your position,

After the first canes goal, we saw a good goal waived off by incompetence.
A 5-3 was created by incompetence, lead to two goals.

The rest of the game had zero goals, outside of the EN goal.

So once the ref incompetence is removed, what did Carolina do well enough to win that game? You claim they dominated chunks of the game, but they only scored the one goal without a giant assist by the refs. You say the sens didn't do enough, well then by your own logic, neither did the canes,

Nobody showed they deserved two pts last night, the refs put their thumbs on the scale and took away the opportunity for us to see which team earned a win.

 

[Big Muddy]

Ok? I fail to see how this supports your position,

After the first canes goal, we saw a good goal waived off by incompetence.
A 5-3 was created by incompetence, lead to two goals.

The rest of the game had zero goals, outside of the EN goal.

So once the ref incompetence is removed, what did Carolina do well enough to win that game? You claim they dominated chunks of the game, but they only scored the one goal without a giant assist by the refs. You say the sens didn't do enough, well then by your own logic, neither did the canes,

Nobody showed they deserved two pts last night, the refs put their thumbs on the scale and took away the opportunity for us to see which team earned a win.

Its right there i the 2nd paragraph. The refs don’t prevent the Senators from scoring on their PPs (that’s one example). They don’t stop the Senators from successfully killing off a penalty (another example). There’s multiple penalties & PPs in every game. What a team does on special teams has a bearing on results.

Anyhow, you’ve convinced yourself that what the Senators did or did not do had no impact on the game, so can’t see further discussion being fruitful. Time for another hiatus.

 

[swiftwin]

I’m not sure I understood everything in your post, but we need to win more games and get above .500. I’ll agree with that. Winning games against lesser opponents would help a lot. Canes are a good team. Their forecheck is suffocating. They are on the player with the puck very quickly and leave little time or space for their opponents. They’ll play the same way the next game and they’ve been consistently one of the better teams in the league for the last few years.

We've had a pretty difficult schedule.

NHL Strength of Schedule Rankings

Strength of Schedule Played and Strength of Schedule Remaining for all 31 NHL teams.

powerrankingsguru.com

Purely from an advanced metrics perspective, we dominated the previous 3 games, and went toe to toe with the #1 team in the league last night in that regard.

Obviously advanced metrics does not decide games, but it does act as a predictor of future games. The fact that we're .500 despite having a difficult schedule, and despite having been unlucky (refs, goalies, pdo), bodes well for the rest of the season. Also, the team has been pretty consistent the last 4 games as they're getting more comfortable in Green's system.

I'm very optimistic for the team right now.

 

[Micklebot]

Its right there i the 2nd paragraph. The refs don’t prevent the Senators from scoring on their PPs (that’s one example). They don’t stop the Senators from successfully killing off a penalty (another example). There’s multiple penalties & PPs in every game. What a team does on special teams has a bearing on results.

Anyhow, you’ve convinced yourself that what the Senators did or did not do had no impact on the game, so can’t see further discussion being fruitful. Time for another hiatus.

So your position is what the canes did to deserve the win is to score in underserved positions?

The point was the officiating changed the result and your argument is no it didn't, sens could have overcome the poor officiating?

You're literally arguing bad calls don't matter even when they directly lead to goals or voiding goals because you could kill the underserved 5-3 or score at some other point in the game, then have the gaul to say I'm the one convincing myself that what sens did had no impact.

Just wild.

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

Good Refs/Linesmen get playoff games. There is a page that shows the officials for games and the stats they have.

Scouting the Refs.

Cool

What we can’t see is how refs are deemed to be performing, where they rank, etc… that would be cool

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Bad calls but at the same time the Senators were never really dangerous the entire game.

I hope the team is focusing more on that than the refs.

 

[Back in Black]

One of those Shit the bed nights!!!

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Its right there i the 2nd paragraph. The refs don’t prevent the Senators from scoring on their PPs (that’s one example). They don’t stop the Senators from successfully killing off a penalty (another example). There’s multiple penalties & PPs in every game. What a team does on special teams has a bearing on results.

Anyhow, you’ve convinced yourself that what the Senators did or did not do had no impact on the game, so can’t see further discussion being fruitful. Time for another hiatus.

So your position is what the canes did to deserve the win is to score in underserved positions?

The point was the officiating changed the result and your argument is no it didn't, sens could have overcome the poor officiating?

You're literally arguing bad calls don't matter even when they directly lead to goals or voiding goals because you could kill the underserved 5-3 or score at some other point in the game, then have the gaul to say I'm the one convincing myself that what sens did had no impact.

Just wild.

I think I understand what this poster is saying. Even if you accept that the refs made bad calls, could the Senators make up a 3 goal differential through some combination of scoring goals on their PPs and preventing goals while on their PKs? I’m saying three goals as there was an empty net goal.

Maybe its only a 2 goal differential, as one of the Cane goals was scored from a really bad angle behind the line. So, that goal was preventable and under the Senator’s control.

So, it seems reasonable enough that they could overcome a 2 goal differential. I would say good teams do this a few times each season and would hope that the Senators will be able to do this as well.

 

[maclean]

Carolina player was trying to cover Stu braking for the net. Defenseman had one hand on his stick and was reaching out to block/intercept a pass. Stu was skating in slightly ahead of the Canes D and moved his stick back a bit to receive a pass. When that happened, the Carolina D lost his stick. It's hard to tell if Stu actually made contact, or if the D dropped his stick or if he let it go on purpose. Stu scored a second later and the D threw his hands up to get a call...and he did. We lost the goal, and got an interference penalty out of it.

Oof, that sounds ridiculous, he didn't whistle the call until after the goal? It wasn't from a coach's challenge or anything? Still kind of in disbelief they cut that right out of the highlights, too, because the highlights were full of long stretches of game play, it wasn't like there wasn't room for it.

 

[Loach]

Cool

What we can’t see is how refs are deemed to be performing, where they rank, etc… that would be cool

You could look at the stats and make a guess on who the league trusts. You can see teams records when that official is working.

Example

Ghislain Hebert has worked 931 regular season games and 0 playoff games.
Trevour Hanson has worked 661 regular season games and 43 playoff games.
Both have 0 Cup Final games.

 

[DrEasy]

You could look at the stats and make a guess on who the league trusts. You can see teams records when that official is working.

Example

Ghislain Hebert has worked 931 regular season games and 0 playoff games.
Trevour Hanson has worked 661 regular season games and 43 playoff games.
Both have 0 Cup Final games.

Wow, should somebody who has worked 931 regular season games but not deemed competent enough to be trusted for a single playoff game continue to be employed?

 

[JD1]

I use ESPN + and watched the replays and can wind back to wherever I want in a game. I didn’t see that. ESPN+ used the Sportsnet broadcast.

I don’t think we did enough to win that game, but whatever I suppose. I think a team needs to do enough on its own to win versus a game boiling down to refs and bad calls to determine the results. I’ll move on. Same old, same old in here.


Re: bolded - And the Canes were the better team the rest of the game.

I think your perspective is off a bit.

We didn't do enough to be the better team and we weren't. But being the better team shockingly often has nothing to do with winning the game (exhibit A the Thursday game against Philly).

That game SHOULD have been 1-1 in the 3rd. Instead it was 3-0.

Had it been 1-1 with 19 minutes left, who knows what might happen

I agree we were not the better team but like I said sometimes that's got nothing to do with it.

 

[Loach]

Wow, should somebody who has worked 931 regular season games but not deemed competent enough to be trusted for a single playoff game continue to be employed?

I remember an article that said there was a ref shortage of sorts. A bunch retired over a few years and the new guys where sort of rushed into the league. And the 931 guy was the worst. There are a few with 300 - 400 games and no playoffs. The rest are under 100. Go take a look.

 

[darude]

After rewatching those "penalties" it's really hard not to ask whether certain refs are in need of a half season suspension.

The Stützle call was dumb and bad but at least something happened on the play and a player sold some garbage. That Pinto penalty is like mimdblowingly awful when you see it from a variety of angles.

 

[Loach]

After rewatching those "penalties" it's really hard not to ask whether certain refs are in need of a half season suspension.

The Stützle call was dumb and bad but at least something happened on the play and a player sold some garbage. That Pinto penalty is like mimdblowingly awful when you see it from a variety of angles.

Which ref was it?

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I think your perspective is off a bit.

We didn't do enough to be the better team and we weren't. But being the better team shockingly often has nothing to do with winning the game (exhibit A the Thursday game against Philly).

That game SHOULD have been 1-1 in the 3rd. Instead it was 3-0.

Had it been 1-1 with 19 minutes left, who knows what might happen

I agree we were not the better team but like I said sometimes that's got nothing to do with it.

Maybe the goal differential would have been 2 goals if Forsberg made the stop on that one goal the Canes scored from a bad angle behind the line?